>the goal that it must never fail That's a good way to put it
"Very experienced" might mean different things to you. The oldest repo on their GH is from 2017. As for highly skilled: Could you point closer to which parts of their portfolio we are supposed to be awestruck by?
Wow, it's so human already!
>Consciousness tries to make things up, it learns that people notice this, it then begins trying to construct justifications that won't be predictably called out as false. There's a logical "skip" between that and…
Oops, I just gormlessly assumed you meant the other one because I also had the (2006) one in the "unsuccessful/failure"-Bucket in my head. Sorry about that.
Look at this hotshot who can't relate to massive losers! /j
You actually aren't: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prey_(2006_video_game)
You haven't been putting in any good-faith effort into having a "productive conversation" for at least three of your responses, setting up "This is how things are" with no attempt to support this with any arguments, and…
What's wrong with me is I'm autistic enough to expect people to be able to follow arguments. I did not say "There are no differences between Government Bonds and Prediction Markets", what I said was "Let's find where…
>if there was any more EV to be gained, people with more money than you would have exhausted it In a perfect market that everyone participates in and in which everyone has perfect information, but not down here in messy…
The cryptocurency was also made with work. Hardware, electricity, and time were invested into the 1 unit of crypto. It's literally called Proof-Of-Work.
But that's about juicing the maximum amount out of each bet, not about the matter of simply winning or losing(which was what I was originally responding to). If any situation one doesn't take for all its worth is a loss…
>just to be clear we are discussing gambling and not investing Where's the demarcation? The whole point of this sub-thread was "you absolutely can predict the outcome of some of these markets". If you do your due…
Can you help me better grasp this? My intuition is thus: Sure, if I'm going at it like a proper rationalist, I'd have to do things like calculate expected value or whatever(I fully admit my lack of foundational…
Not only did you miss the point of the conversation entirely, you're attacking a point I explicitly addressed in my comment. I well understand how the system works, ggps comment had me confused about their perspective.
Except you knew it was a lie, and they knew that you knew it was a lie, and you knew that they knew that you knew it was a lie. There was exactly zero deception. At a certain point it's marketing, advertising,…
I go to the store and buy a pencil. Now I have apparently 1 pencil worth 1 fiat and someone else now has 1 fiat? What a preposterous notion!
And the prostitute really does love you and Your Call really Is Important To Us. That's a little snarkier than strictly appropriate in this forum but you cannot seriously and in good faith say that this is the first…
You're sneaking in a prior assumption that people will act stupidly, and then make the argument "Well since they act stupidly they will have bad outcomes". That's like me claiming "Your startup is gonna fail, I can…
I'm confused by how you're modeling these markets. Let's say I am quite sure that the Steam Machine will cost more than $700 dollars, and I buy a 'yes' lot for 65 cents on the payed-out dollar, those are the odds at my…
You don't need Colossus-level compute or a genius-level IQ to evaluate the question "Will the steam machine cost more than $700 at release", or "Will 2026 be the hottest year on record".
Yeah, if I don't make my six-year-old drink with me every once in a while, he's never gonn learn to hold his liquour!
>Each applicant took the test under unknown conditions. You don't know [...] whether they walked in cold or worked with a tutor for months, or whether they came from a perfectly stable home life or found out the night…
"I'm the boss, you do what I tell you when I tell you. I say jump out the window, you ask which one."
But can I uninstall Meta Horizon OS and install Gentoo?
>the goal that it must never fail That's a good way to put it
"Very experienced" might mean different things to you. The oldest repo on their GH is from 2017. As for highly skilled: Could you point closer to which parts of their portfolio we are supposed to be awestruck by?
Wow, it's so human already!
>Consciousness tries to make things up, it learns that people notice this, it then begins trying to construct justifications that won't be predictably called out as false. There's a logical "skip" between that and…
Oops, I just gormlessly assumed you meant the other one because I also had the (2006) one in the "unsuccessful/failure"-Bucket in my head. Sorry about that.
Look at this hotshot who can't relate to massive losers! /j
You actually aren't: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prey_(2006_video_game)
You haven't been putting in any good-faith effort into having a "productive conversation" for at least three of your responses, setting up "This is how things are" with no attempt to support this with any arguments, and…
What's wrong with me is I'm autistic enough to expect people to be able to follow arguments. I did not say "There are no differences between Government Bonds and Prediction Markets", what I said was "Let's find where…
>if there was any more EV to be gained, people with more money than you would have exhausted it In a perfect market that everyone participates in and in which everyone has perfect information, but not down here in messy…
The cryptocurency was also made with work. Hardware, electricity, and time were invested into the 1 unit of crypto. It's literally called Proof-Of-Work.
But that's about juicing the maximum amount out of each bet, not about the matter of simply winning or losing(which was what I was originally responding to). If any situation one doesn't take for all its worth is a loss…
>just to be clear we are discussing gambling and not investing Where's the demarcation? The whole point of this sub-thread was "you absolutely can predict the outcome of some of these markets". If you do your due…
Can you help me better grasp this? My intuition is thus: Sure, if I'm going at it like a proper rationalist, I'd have to do things like calculate expected value or whatever(I fully admit my lack of foundational…
Not only did you miss the point of the conversation entirely, you're attacking a point I explicitly addressed in my comment. I well understand how the system works, ggps comment had me confused about their perspective.
Except you knew it was a lie, and they knew that you knew it was a lie, and you knew that they knew that you knew it was a lie. There was exactly zero deception. At a certain point it's marketing, advertising,…
I go to the store and buy a pencil. Now I have apparently 1 pencil worth 1 fiat and someone else now has 1 fiat? What a preposterous notion!
And the prostitute really does love you and Your Call really Is Important To Us. That's a little snarkier than strictly appropriate in this forum but you cannot seriously and in good faith say that this is the first…
You're sneaking in a prior assumption that people will act stupidly, and then make the argument "Well since they act stupidly they will have bad outcomes". That's like me claiming "Your startup is gonna fail, I can…
I'm confused by how you're modeling these markets. Let's say I am quite sure that the Steam Machine will cost more than $700 dollars, and I buy a 'yes' lot for 65 cents on the payed-out dollar, those are the odds at my…
You don't need Colossus-level compute or a genius-level IQ to evaluate the question "Will the steam machine cost more than $700 at release", or "Will 2026 be the hottest year on record".
Yeah, if I don't make my six-year-old drink with me every once in a while, he's never gonn learn to hold his liquour!
>Each applicant took the test under unknown conditions. You don't know [...] whether they walked in cold or worked with a tutor for months, or whether they came from a perfectly stable home life or found out the night…
"I'm the boss, you do what I tell you when I tell you. I say jump out the window, you ask which one."
But can I uninstall Meta Horizon OS and install Gentoo?