It’s an oversimplification in the media, this is a time series analysis esp. at the macro level. Then you do some fancy math and estimate the counter factual -> the delta between observed and estimated is your excess…
Maybe _you_ can’t but this is well studied and robust. Do you also disagree with excess death calculations from the pandemic?
That’s why STEM professions have ethical guidelines and standards - here’s AMSTAT -> https://www.amstat.org/your-career/ethical-guidelines-for-st...
It’s an oversimplification in the media, this is a time series analysis esp. at the macro level. Then you do some fancy math and estimate the counter factual -> the delta between observed and estimated is your excess…
Maybe _you_ can’t but this is well studied and robust. Do you also disagree with excess death calculations from the pandemic?
That’s why STEM professions have ethical guidelines and standards - here’s AMSTAT -> https://www.amstat.org/your-career/ethical-guidelines-for-st...