What about bets without insider participation, where you want the market to function as an aggregator of educated guesses? OP has one reaction to insider trading, but I imagine a very common alternative would be "those…
A lot of expressions in English started out as calques, outputs that process: you're paving the way!
All models are wrong; some are useful. Cognizance of that is even more critical for a model like exponential growth that often leads to extremely poor predictions quickly if uncritically extrapolated. I think "are the…
Students shouldn't be treating class material as something they "do not care to know." AI can be used in ways that lead to deeper understanding. If a student wants AI to give them practice problems, or essay feedback,…
If you have many metrics that could possibly be construed as "this was what we were trying to improve", that's many different possibilities for random variation to give you a false positive. If you're explicit at the…
Advantage, sure. I just don't think that advantage is particularly meaningful in situations a human has virtually no chance of escaping. Humans also have a lot of their own advantages. How is a chatbot supposed to cross…
If someone who is so good at manipulation their life is adapted into a movie still ends up serving decades behind bars, isn't that actually a pretty good indication that maxing out Speech doesn't give you superpowers?…
I don't think there's a confident upper bound. I just don't see why it's self-evident that the upper bound is beyond anything we've ever seen in human history.
People are hurt by animals all the time: do you think having a higher IQ than a grizzly bear means you have nothing to fear from one? I certainly think it's possible to imagine that an AI that says the exactly correct…
Why is 2) "self-evident"? Do you think it's a given that, in any situation, there's something you could say that would manipulate humans to get what you want? If you were smart enough, do you think you could talk your…
Thanks for sharing this proof! As someone who enjoys math but never got myself through enough Galois theory to finish the standard proof, it's fantastic to see a proof that's more elementary while still giving a sense…
At that point, you'd be better off just using a recursive algorithm like the one in GMP. You're swapping out arbitrary-length for arbitrary-precision.
The compound-interest intro to e (the value of 1 dollar compounded continuously for a year at 100% interest), to me, has several useful advantages over different introductions that are more mathematically rich: - It's…
I will die on the hill that TOML should be used for the vast majority of what YAML's used for today. There are times a full language is needed, but I've seen so many YAML files that use none of the features YAML has…
They then say there's an approximation for Fibonacci, which makes me think that's what they're calling Binet's formula. (I'd also expect an author with this mathematical sophistication to be aware of Binet's formula,…
I don't think it's controversial to say that asymptotic analysis has flaws: the conclusions you draw from it only hold in the limit of larger inputs, and sometims "larger" means "larger than anything you'd be able to…
Very cool! What's meant by "it’s already too much to ask for a closed form for fibonacci numbers"? Binet's formula is usually called a closed form in my experience. Is "closed form" here supposed to mean "closed form we…
It seems to me that much of recent AI progress has not changed the fundamental scaling principles underlying the tech. Reasoning models are more effective, but at the cost of more computation: it's more for more, not…
It's not that technical work is guaranteed to be in your codebase 10 years from now, it's that customers don't want to use a product that might be good six months from now. The actors in the best position to use new AI…
Previous experience isn't manual edge cases, it's training data. Humans have incredible scale (100 trillion synapses): we're incredibly good at generalizing, e.g., how to pick up objects we've never seen before or…
The time span on which these developments take place matter a lot for whether the bitter lesson is relevant to a particular AI deployment. The best AI models of the future will not have 100K lines of hand-coded edge…
> The models keep getting better at an exponential. Isn't it the opposite? Marginal improvements require exponentially more investment, if we believe Altman. AI is expanding into different areas, and lots of…
The math underpinning an AI model exists independent of the hardware it's realized on. I can train a model on one GPU and someone else can replicate my results with a different GPU running different drivers, down to…
What incentives do any humans have to so totally delegate the functioning of the core levers of societal power that they're unable to prevent their own extinction? "Better machine alternatives" implies that the police…
It's hard to characterize the entropy of the distribution of potential diseases given a presentation: even if there are in theory many potential diagnoses, in practice a few will be a lot more common. It doesn't really…
What about bets without insider participation, where you want the market to function as an aggregator of educated guesses? OP has one reaction to insider trading, but I imagine a very common alternative would be "those…
A lot of expressions in English started out as calques, outputs that process: you're paving the way!
All models are wrong; some are useful. Cognizance of that is even more critical for a model like exponential growth that often leads to extremely poor predictions quickly if uncritically extrapolated. I think "are the…
Students shouldn't be treating class material as something they "do not care to know." AI can be used in ways that lead to deeper understanding. If a student wants AI to give them practice problems, or essay feedback,…
If you have many metrics that could possibly be construed as "this was what we were trying to improve", that's many different possibilities for random variation to give you a false positive. If you're explicit at the…
Advantage, sure. I just don't think that advantage is particularly meaningful in situations a human has virtually no chance of escaping. Humans also have a lot of their own advantages. How is a chatbot supposed to cross…
If someone who is so good at manipulation their life is adapted into a movie still ends up serving decades behind bars, isn't that actually a pretty good indication that maxing out Speech doesn't give you superpowers?…
I don't think there's a confident upper bound. I just don't see why it's self-evident that the upper bound is beyond anything we've ever seen in human history.
People are hurt by animals all the time: do you think having a higher IQ than a grizzly bear means you have nothing to fear from one? I certainly think it's possible to imagine that an AI that says the exactly correct…
Why is 2) "self-evident"? Do you think it's a given that, in any situation, there's something you could say that would manipulate humans to get what you want? If you were smart enough, do you think you could talk your…
Thanks for sharing this proof! As someone who enjoys math but never got myself through enough Galois theory to finish the standard proof, it's fantastic to see a proof that's more elementary while still giving a sense…
At that point, you'd be better off just using a recursive algorithm like the one in GMP. You're swapping out arbitrary-length for arbitrary-precision.
The compound-interest intro to e (the value of 1 dollar compounded continuously for a year at 100% interest), to me, has several useful advantages over different introductions that are more mathematically rich: - It's…
I will die on the hill that TOML should be used for the vast majority of what YAML's used for today. There are times a full language is needed, but I've seen so many YAML files that use none of the features YAML has…
They then say there's an approximation for Fibonacci, which makes me think that's what they're calling Binet's formula. (I'd also expect an author with this mathematical sophistication to be aware of Binet's formula,…
I don't think it's controversial to say that asymptotic analysis has flaws: the conclusions you draw from it only hold in the limit of larger inputs, and sometims "larger" means "larger than anything you'd be able to…
Very cool! What's meant by "it’s already too much to ask for a closed form for fibonacci numbers"? Binet's formula is usually called a closed form in my experience. Is "closed form" here supposed to mean "closed form we…
It seems to me that much of recent AI progress has not changed the fundamental scaling principles underlying the tech. Reasoning models are more effective, but at the cost of more computation: it's more for more, not…
It's not that technical work is guaranteed to be in your codebase 10 years from now, it's that customers don't want to use a product that might be good six months from now. The actors in the best position to use new AI…
Previous experience isn't manual edge cases, it's training data. Humans have incredible scale (100 trillion synapses): we're incredibly good at generalizing, e.g., how to pick up objects we've never seen before or…
The time span on which these developments take place matter a lot for whether the bitter lesson is relevant to a particular AI deployment. The best AI models of the future will not have 100K lines of hand-coded edge…
> The models keep getting better at an exponential. Isn't it the opposite? Marginal improvements require exponentially more investment, if we believe Altman. AI is expanding into different areas, and lots of…
The math underpinning an AI model exists independent of the hardware it's realized on. I can train a model on one GPU and someone else can replicate my results with a different GPU running different drivers, down to…
What incentives do any humans have to so totally delegate the functioning of the core levers of societal power that they're unable to prevent their own extinction? "Better machine alternatives" implies that the police…
It's hard to characterize the entropy of the distribution of potential diseases given a presentation: even if there are in theory many potential diagnoses, in practice a few will be a lot more common. It doesn't really…