When wages decline, cost of producing the service/good does down too. And when the costs go down, relative demand goes up. How many Uber rides would you take at $5 vs $20? How many times would you eat out at $10 vs $50?…
Certainly there's still a business there, I'm not saying they won't exist. But it's not going to be a monopoly-esque business with so many players in the ring, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, Deepseek, Alibaba, GLM,…
If the output is commoditized, how much can you afford to pay for the input?
Yes, agree that token consumption will increase exponentially for the next while. Disagree that the frontier model is where the economic gains will be realized. The smaller the relative gap between frontier and…
There are an enormous number of tasks that can get by on good enough. If you need image recognition, and a 30B model saturates the use case with 100% accuracy, you absolutely wouldn't continue to use the next frontier…
Nominal wage doesn't really matter, just real wages+purchasing power. Goods and services prices will fall far more than wages for most people. Why? Because there will be far more efficiency and competition than pre-AI.…
It seems obvious that labor displacement due to AI will create labor surpluses in existing fields. Which will feel quite bad for many of us in the present, but net-net be good for society in the long run. Wages will go…
If an operation can run with fewer nurses, that creates a larger excess labor supply of nurses relative to current need (the ones laid off), thus lowering wages, thus increasing demand for nurses. e.g. you will take…
I've long speculated this when I see these types of comments, because it's actually really difficult to hit usage caps with an efficient dev flow, even when running multiple threads for hours every day. I think some…
Codex (5.6 Sol) is extremely to the point and direct in its responses. Often I'll tell it to summarize what it said only because it's providing too much detail, not that it's using esoteric language or weird claudisms.…
I see the complete opposite becoming the case. In a world where code can be generated rapidly, it's super critical that you have a core few set of people who really understand the macro design of the codebase and can…
30y is keyed to inflation expectations. If fed hiked to 5% tomorrow, 30y would invert and yield would go down. It's not as simple as hikes lead to higher 30y yields.
Additionally recent studies have shown high duration/volumes of cardio increases plaque buildup in the arteries. "Indeed, many studies have shown a relationship between endurance sports and higher volumes of coronary…
Yes, if you set reasoning to none you can force the granularity of the thinking. It will actually adhere to your request for e.g. 3 sentences max. Thinking mode will override any instructions in the prompt (at least for…
There are tons of core principles that can be learned that largely apply across fields. One prime example, single source of truth for data/concepts. To be violated only when performance is meaningfully improved…
Fat is inherently unhealthy for you beyond some low baseline level. Additional muscle is positive for health, but only up to some reasonable threshold. There is no health benefit to having very high levels of muscle,…
I believe evidence points towards absolute level of fat being more important than % for overall health. E.g. 20% bodyfat at 250lbs is still a lot of fat. Of course it's difficult to ever get very high on absolute fat if…
It tends to happen when: 1) You must have a crowded optical disc as a precursor (low cup to disc ratio). Genetic and can be tested 2) You have stiff veins/arteries due to poor metabolic/cardio health 3) when blood…
It's also true that having a crowded optical disc is pretty much a required precursor condition to suffering NAION. Which you can get checked for via a $50 optical scan. No crowded disc, very little risk. (Cup to Disc…
You can already do this with smaller LLMs, like 10B range. The computer vision/image interpretation has been sufficient at this magnitude for a few months now. Can run on most decently powered consumer devices. Latency…
The first chart in the blog post shows a similar $/performance curve to GPT 5.6. Where 5.6 has optionality to run much cheaper along the same performance curve at lower thinking levels. There's a later chart that shows…
Exactly. I've found 6 minutes or so the sweet spot for upper bound with 5.6 Sol. And it sounds like the OPs query above requires scanning throughout a large portion of the codebase, which will inherently consume a large…
The hole can be filled overnight by just raising the retirement age. And if you normalize for longer lifespans, it's perfectly reasonable.
When they can sell that for tens of Billions a year against competition, they might have a financial case. In reality, there will be many clones of Claude Design, especially if it gains big revenue traction. Doubly so…
Then it's hard to switch? It's irrelevant the reason why, the margin any business can take will be constrained by the cost to switch to a cheaper, good enough, competitor. You are saying it's difficult to switch due to…
When wages decline, cost of producing the service/good does down too. And when the costs go down, relative demand goes up. How many Uber rides would you take at $5 vs $20? How many times would you eat out at $10 vs $50?…
Certainly there's still a business there, I'm not saying they won't exist. But it's not going to be a monopoly-esque business with so many players in the ring, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, Deepseek, Alibaba, GLM,…
If the output is commoditized, how much can you afford to pay for the input?
Yes, agree that token consumption will increase exponentially for the next while. Disagree that the frontier model is where the economic gains will be realized. The smaller the relative gap between frontier and…
There are an enormous number of tasks that can get by on good enough. If you need image recognition, and a 30B model saturates the use case with 100% accuracy, you absolutely wouldn't continue to use the next frontier…
Nominal wage doesn't really matter, just real wages+purchasing power. Goods and services prices will fall far more than wages for most people. Why? Because there will be far more efficiency and competition than pre-AI.…
It seems obvious that labor displacement due to AI will create labor surpluses in existing fields. Which will feel quite bad for many of us in the present, but net-net be good for society in the long run. Wages will go…
If an operation can run with fewer nurses, that creates a larger excess labor supply of nurses relative to current need (the ones laid off), thus lowering wages, thus increasing demand for nurses. e.g. you will take…
I've long speculated this when I see these types of comments, because it's actually really difficult to hit usage caps with an efficient dev flow, even when running multiple threads for hours every day. I think some…
Codex (5.6 Sol) is extremely to the point and direct in its responses. Often I'll tell it to summarize what it said only because it's providing too much detail, not that it's using esoteric language or weird claudisms.…
I see the complete opposite becoming the case. In a world where code can be generated rapidly, it's super critical that you have a core few set of people who really understand the macro design of the codebase and can…
30y is keyed to inflation expectations. If fed hiked to 5% tomorrow, 30y would invert and yield would go down. It's not as simple as hikes lead to higher 30y yields.
Additionally recent studies have shown high duration/volumes of cardio increases plaque buildup in the arteries. "Indeed, many studies have shown a relationship between endurance sports and higher volumes of coronary…
Yes, if you set reasoning to none you can force the granularity of the thinking. It will actually adhere to your request for e.g. 3 sentences max. Thinking mode will override any instructions in the prompt (at least for…
There are tons of core principles that can be learned that largely apply across fields. One prime example, single source of truth for data/concepts. To be violated only when performance is meaningfully improved…
Fat is inherently unhealthy for you beyond some low baseline level. Additional muscle is positive for health, but only up to some reasonable threshold. There is no health benefit to having very high levels of muscle,…
I believe evidence points towards absolute level of fat being more important than % for overall health. E.g. 20% bodyfat at 250lbs is still a lot of fat. Of course it's difficult to ever get very high on absolute fat if…
It tends to happen when: 1) You must have a crowded optical disc as a precursor (low cup to disc ratio). Genetic and can be tested 2) You have stiff veins/arteries due to poor metabolic/cardio health 3) when blood…
It's also true that having a crowded optical disc is pretty much a required precursor condition to suffering NAION. Which you can get checked for via a $50 optical scan. No crowded disc, very little risk. (Cup to Disc…
You can already do this with smaller LLMs, like 10B range. The computer vision/image interpretation has been sufficient at this magnitude for a few months now. Can run on most decently powered consumer devices. Latency…
The first chart in the blog post shows a similar $/performance curve to GPT 5.6. Where 5.6 has optionality to run much cheaper along the same performance curve at lower thinking levels. There's a later chart that shows…
Exactly. I've found 6 minutes or so the sweet spot for upper bound with 5.6 Sol. And it sounds like the OPs query above requires scanning throughout a large portion of the codebase, which will inherently consume a large…
The hole can be filled overnight by just raising the retirement age. And if you normalize for longer lifespans, it's perfectly reasonable.
When they can sell that for tens of Billions a year against competition, they might have a financial case. In reality, there will be many clones of Claude Design, especially if it gains big revenue traction. Doubly so…
Then it's hard to switch? It's irrelevant the reason why, the margin any business can take will be constrained by the cost to switch to a cheaper, good enough, competitor. You are saying it's difficult to switch due to…