Strategically the best ethic czar one can hire for a company is the one that doesn't believe in this fluffy, arbitrary definition of ethics. 100% of the time, ethics department attracts activists, which is 100% trouble…
skill issue. Solved by having the correct model of the world and forces acting on it given (appropriately weighted) current context and your usual variance. It's usually people who don't understand the context or assign…
Search is now only 50% of the revenue. But sure keep the myth going.
If you had asked HN 3 years ago what would code-generating market would be, they would have used the exact same reasoning and given us the opinion "Why no one will pay for glorified auto-complete"
Smarter models will always route better because it is an intelligent/judgement activity
The only metric that matters is f(cost, time, task). If Anthropic has a SOTA model, it can easily distill every model in the pareto frontier and have the SOTA model route appropriately. They haven't felt the 'sting' yet…
and Anthropic can top that benchmark if that's what the users are optimizing for...which is my original point
Model Routing will always be done better by models themselves. Plus routing loses context making it more expensive and less reliable. Model Routing is just Bitter lesson. The models themselves will get better at this…
we don't know if it is 0.1% deficit, could be 0.05%
There is no reason a smarter model will not build an internal smarter/efficient router itself
One is actually building while the other is making Youtube videos. Also the video literally answers the economic question. I'm happy with my bet
Yes. https://youtu.be/FKHENV75b9Q?si=JFBsT2HinR02AI4P
[flagged]
Models need datacenters to run. It also need other services to do anything useful
Completely missing the point of not adding Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX. Mag7 is just an arbitrary list of companies that were coined at a specific time with no rigor. If you must do rigorous analysis, then just like S&P…
I'm sure people laughed in 2023 if someone said AI will reach $100B in revenue in 3 years. Yet here we are
Exactly, it's never about absolute results, it's always Expected Value (Upside, given time/cost savings + Downside, given %reliability). So, every task falls under a spectrum
actuaries look for data. visionaries take leaps in faith. There was no data proving LLMs will work at scale. Google waited for the Data. OpenAI and then Anthropic took the leap of faith. The result is there for all to…
I'm not talking about Claude copying. I'm talking about scouring Twitter/LinkedIn and look at posts from employees who say SOTA model is banned. Look at what the business do. Copy it using SOTA. Call their clients with…
One company's irrational fear is a competitive advantage for someone else.
people over-rate how much software/IP is useful in running a successful business. There are genuinely very few IP in this world that needs to be protected. Everyone else is running stupid CRUD apps They also over index…
If it doesn't, at what point will the 'bears' admit they were horribly and confidently wrong?
Why are you comparing SpaceX revenues to US GDP? (when it's main customers will all have a global footprint) GDP rates should be nominal (5-6%) not 3% Also, go back in time and do the same analysis for Anthropic in 2023…
The ARR of OpenAI + Anthropic > $85B greater than McDonalds, Netflix, Starbucks, Google Cloud, CocaCola, and 1000 other iconic firms around the world. If I wanted blind pattern matching comments of dot-com bubble, I can…
Exactly. Sam may lose on Product capabilities, but never on Deals.
Strategically the best ethic czar one can hire for a company is the one that doesn't believe in this fluffy, arbitrary definition of ethics. 100% of the time, ethics department attracts activists, which is 100% trouble…
skill issue. Solved by having the correct model of the world and forces acting on it given (appropriately weighted) current context and your usual variance. It's usually people who don't understand the context or assign…
Search is now only 50% of the revenue. But sure keep the myth going.
If you had asked HN 3 years ago what would code-generating market would be, they would have used the exact same reasoning and given us the opinion "Why no one will pay for glorified auto-complete"
Smarter models will always route better because it is an intelligent/judgement activity
The only metric that matters is f(cost, time, task). If Anthropic has a SOTA model, it can easily distill every model in the pareto frontier and have the SOTA model route appropriately. They haven't felt the 'sting' yet…
and Anthropic can top that benchmark if that's what the users are optimizing for...which is my original point
Model Routing will always be done better by models themselves. Plus routing loses context making it more expensive and less reliable. Model Routing is just Bitter lesson. The models themselves will get better at this…
we don't know if it is 0.1% deficit, could be 0.05%
There is no reason a smarter model will not build an internal smarter/efficient router itself
One is actually building while the other is making Youtube videos. Also the video literally answers the economic question. I'm happy with my bet
Yes. https://youtu.be/FKHENV75b9Q?si=JFBsT2HinR02AI4P
[flagged]
Models need datacenters to run. It also need other services to do anything useful
Completely missing the point of not adding Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX. Mag7 is just an arbitrary list of companies that were coined at a specific time with no rigor. If you must do rigorous analysis, then just like S&P…
I'm sure people laughed in 2023 if someone said AI will reach $100B in revenue in 3 years. Yet here we are
Exactly, it's never about absolute results, it's always Expected Value (Upside, given time/cost savings + Downside, given %reliability). So, every task falls under a spectrum
actuaries look for data. visionaries take leaps in faith. There was no data proving LLMs will work at scale. Google waited for the Data. OpenAI and then Anthropic took the leap of faith. The result is there for all to…
I'm not talking about Claude copying. I'm talking about scouring Twitter/LinkedIn and look at posts from employees who say SOTA model is banned. Look at what the business do. Copy it using SOTA. Call their clients with…
One company's irrational fear is a competitive advantage for someone else.
people over-rate how much software/IP is useful in running a successful business. There are genuinely very few IP in this world that needs to be protected. Everyone else is running stupid CRUD apps They also over index…
If it doesn't, at what point will the 'bears' admit they were horribly and confidently wrong?
Why are you comparing SpaceX revenues to US GDP? (when it's main customers will all have a global footprint) GDP rates should be nominal (5-6%) not 3% Also, go back in time and do the same analysis for Anthropic in 2023…
The ARR of OpenAI + Anthropic > $85B greater than McDonalds, Netflix, Starbucks, Google Cloud, CocaCola, and 1000 other iconic firms around the world. If I wanted blind pattern matching comments of dot-com bubble, I can…
Exactly. Sam may lose on Product capabilities, but never on Deals.