[dead]
Yes, they forecast thousands of U.S. elections and thousands of sports games, and their forecasts had excellent calibration—e.g., events they said would happen 30% of the time actually happened about 30% of the time.…
> FiveThirtyEight performed only slightly better than what you could find in any other reputable newspaper FiveThirtyEight gave Trump double the odds of the next highest reputable prediction, which was The New York…
Trump's second-term clemencies so far have forgiven criminal debts of more than $1.5 billion. That's over 2,000x the amount amount eliminated by Biden's pardons ($680,000). These pardons go to convicted criminals who…
If all your experience comes from Apollo Client and Apollo Server, as the author's does, then your opinion is more about Apollo than it is about GraphQL. You should be using Relay[0] or Isograph[1] on the frontend, and…
> I think in this case Europe/Kyiv would actually change its UTC offset to match Europe/Moscow, which I'm pretty sure the TZ database would handle just fine. Another user has already responded to the rest of your…
> Appointments become past events. Sounds like an operational nightmare to convert all of them right as they become past events. That is fair. In some models there's a natural separation between a scheduled-at time and…
We agree that you generally want some information that lets you resolve your event to an IANA time zone for calculations :)
Past events should just be stored as instants, not as a local time plus location or time zone. Further, I believe the historical data is meant to be handled by the named time zone, so Russia moving Dnipro to MSK would…
The events in question happen at a physical location at a local time, and so are stored as a local time plus longitude and latitude. If they were stored as instants, and then if a location moved time zones or stopped…
The consequences could look something like 50 shift workers showing up an hour late one day, or a user missing a critical meeting. Dealing with and debugging time zones is already such a confusing mess that I find that…
A future appointment at a physical location is usually an agreement between two or more humans. Humans generally don’t use UTC for future physical events, nor they use a time in a named time zone. What they use is a…
That is not quite right. In Postgres, timestamptz (aka timestamp with time zone) represents an instant in time. timestamp (aka timestamp without time zone) represents what you are calling local time. timestamp (without…
It is not as rare as you might think. The most recent time this happened was March of this year, with Chile's Aysén Region dropping DST and moving to the newly created America/Coyhaique.…
Good point. As you mention, that doesn’t matter in this case, as even if a new named time zone is added, the stored named time zone would’ve been written before Europe/Dnipro was created (in case anyone’s wondering why…
You are wrong, and fauigerzigerk is correct. Future physical events, such as an appointment at a physical location, should be stored as unzoned time plus a location (such as an address), NOT with a named time zone. This…
We use Infisical for both our dev and prod environments. If you're a YC company you can get your first year free. https://infisical.com
Chevron allowed massive regulatory changes whenever a new administration took over. At a time of high political polarization, no one should be asking that we defer to the whatever the current executive branch’s…
You can specify parts of a query should be sent in subsequent responses with the @defer directive, and your client and server libraries will handle the rest for you. Server side:…
> I really don't understand why people ascribe emergent behaviors to these systems such as "theory of mind". It's just randomness. I'm presuming there's just a lot of psycological pareidolia going around. Ah yes, "just…
> The formula for it seems to be to introduce to new characters one layer up, have them each pick a side, then fill in roughly the same arguments again. Maybe this pattern is just spurious, but I'm deeply curious to…
That is a clue that GPT-4 is not a stochastic parrot and does in fact possess an understanding of language and a model of the world.
Now write a dialog between Mary and David discussing the dialog between Alice and Bob. ---- Mary: David, after listening to Alice and Bob's conversation, it seems to me that Alice is empathizing with John's intentions,…
GPT-4: ---- Jane: John, I can't believe you're just going to leave me here in the middle of nowhere! This is so typical of you! John: Typical of me? Jane, this is exactly what you signed up for! Adventure, remember?…
It's a myth that GPT-4 can't say "I don't know." Often it will respond that it doesn't know something organically, but in cases where it's extra important to be careful, it can be prompted to do so. It will always make…
[dead]
Yes, they forecast thousands of U.S. elections and thousands of sports games, and their forecasts had excellent calibration—e.g., events they said would happen 30% of the time actually happened about 30% of the time.…
> FiveThirtyEight performed only slightly better than what you could find in any other reputable newspaper FiveThirtyEight gave Trump double the odds of the next highest reputable prediction, which was The New York…
Trump's second-term clemencies so far have forgiven criminal debts of more than $1.5 billion. That's over 2,000x the amount amount eliminated by Biden's pardons ($680,000). These pardons go to convicted criminals who…
If all your experience comes from Apollo Client and Apollo Server, as the author's does, then your opinion is more about Apollo than it is about GraphQL. You should be using Relay[0] or Isograph[1] on the frontend, and…
> I think in this case Europe/Kyiv would actually change its UTC offset to match Europe/Moscow, which I'm pretty sure the TZ database would handle just fine. Another user has already responded to the rest of your…
> Appointments become past events. Sounds like an operational nightmare to convert all of them right as they become past events. That is fair. In some models there's a natural separation between a scheduled-at time and…
We agree that you generally want some information that lets you resolve your event to an IANA time zone for calculations :)
Past events should just be stored as instants, not as a local time plus location or time zone. Further, I believe the historical data is meant to be handled by the named time zone, so Russia moving Dnipro to MSK would…
The events in question happen at a physical location at a local time, and so are stored as a local time plus longitude and latitude. If they were stored as instants, and then if a location moved time zones or stopped…
The consequences could look something like 50 shift workers showing up an hour late one day, or a user missing a critical meeting. Dealing with and debugging time zones is already such a confusing mess that I find that…
A future appointment at a physical location is usually an agreement between two or more humans. Humans generally don’t use UTC for future physical events, nor they use a time in a named time zone. What they use is a…
That is not quite right. In Postgres, timestamptz (aka timestamp with time zone) represents an instant in time. timestamp (aka timestamp without time zone) represents what you are calling local time. timestamp (without…
It is not as rare as you might think. The most recent time this happened was March of this year, with Chile's Aysén Region dropping DST and moving to the newly created America/Coyhaique.…
Good point. As you mention, that doesn’t matter in this case, as even if a new named time zone is added, the stored named time zone would’ve been written before Europe/Dnipro was created (in case anyone’s wondering why…
You are wrong, and fauigerzigerk is correct. Future physical events, such as an appointment at a physical location, should be stored as unzoned time plus a location (such as an address), NOT with a named time zone. This…
We use Infisical for both our dev and prod environments. If you're a YC company you can get your first year free. https://infisical.com
Chevron allowed massive regulatory changes whenever a new administration took over. At a time of high political polarization, no one should be asking that we defer to the whatever the current executive branch’s…
You can specify parts of a query should be sent in subsequent responses with the @defer directive, and your client and server libraries will handle the rest for you. Server side:…
> I really don't understand why people ascribe emergent behaviors to these systems such as "theory of mind". It's just randomness. I'm presuming there's just a lot of psycological pareidolia going around. Ah yes, "just…
> The formula for it seems to be to introduce to new characters one layer up, have them each pick a side, then fill in roughly the same arguments again. Maybe this pattern is just spurious, but I'm deeply curious to…
That is a clue that GPT-4 is not a stochastic parrot and does in fact possess an understanding of language and a model of the world.
Now write a dialog between Mary and David discussing the dialog between Alice and Bob. ---- Mary: David, after listening to Alice and Bob's conversation, it seems to me that Alice is empathizing with John's intentions,…
GPT-4: ---- Jane: John, I can't believe you're just going to leave me here in the middle of nowhere! This is so typical of you! John: Typical of me? Jane, this is exactly what you signed up for! Adventure, remember?…
It's a myth that GPT-4 can't say "I don't know." Often it will respond that it doesn't know something organically, but in cases where it's extra important to be careful, it can be prompted to do so. It will always make…