Sadly capitalism rewards scarcity at a macro level, which in some ways is the opposite of efficiency. It also grants "social status" to the scarce via more resources. As long as you aren't disrupted, and everyone in…
There is also a chance that a lot of this capex is written off, and the money becomes "sunk". Bad for the current players, but given inference costs as you mention are profitable, after the writeoffs and the market…
I think you can enjoy both aspects - both the problem solving and the craft. There will be people who agree that of course from a rational perspective solving the problem is what matters, but for them personally the…
I think the reason for the negativity in this forum (and other threads I've seen over the past few months) is because people are engaged with AI and it seems are deep down not happy with its direction even if they are…
The question is not whether you can or can't, but whether it is still worth it long term: - There is a moat of doing so (i.e. will people actually pay for your SaaS knowing that they could do it too via AI) and.. - How…
I sadly think if the promise of AI happens this is the likely economic outcome. The last century or so was an anomaly from most of human history; a trend created by the "arms race" of needing educated workers. The…
That's what AI does. Makes power and politics have even more of a premium vs say learning, intelligence and hard work. Connections, wealth and power. It is almost ironic that our industry is inventing the thing that…
Agree with most of what you said except for the "big bucks" part. Why would I pay for your product when I can ask the AI to do it? To be honest I think I would rather use that money for anything else if I can spend a…
That's kinda obvious that's their goal especially with the current focus on coding of most of the AI labs in most announcements - it may be augmentation now but that isn't the end game. Everything else these AI labs do,…
I'm not sure where construction and physical work goes into your categories. Process and chores maybe. But I think AI will struggle in the physical domain - validation is difficult and repeated experiments to train on…
This is what I think as well. Unfortunately for the AI proponents they already made an example of the software industry. Its on news reports in the US and globally; most people are no longer recommending to get into the…
This is the reason IMO. Fundamentally China right now is better at manufacturing (e.g. robotics). AI is the complement to this - AI increases the demand for tech manufactured goods. Whereas America is in the opposite…
Just my opinion/observation really but I believe its because people are implicitly entertaining the possibility that it is no longer about software or rather this announcement implicitly states that talent long term…
More likely they will tailor/RL train these models to go after coders first. Use RLHF employing coders where labor is cheap to train their models. A number of reasons for this of course: - Faster product development on…
Its a common view from the "do'ers" (the people who made most of the value in the past; the hard workers, etc) that this will make management redundant. Sadly with a basic understanding of economics you can see this is…
Money buys real assets which will be worth something; AI can't magic up land or energy for instance. In fact AI is a dream for capital, and a nightmare for labor/work/human intelligence w.r.t value.
A lot of the fluff is all about boosting sales IMO which is where a lot of money for tech comes from. When MBA types (a large chunk of tech's buyers) hear the promises of efficiency, and replacing workers they get all…
Indeed. I'm already seeing it in software at least anecdotally where people's will to post code open source/answer Stackoverflow questions, etc are drying up (i.e. am I working hard just to train someone else's AI?).…
> 1. Learn how the subject matter experts do the work. This will get harder I think over time as low hanging fruit domains are picked - the barrier will be people not technology. Especially if the moat for that…
My hypothesis is that F# is somewhat self selecting at senior/lead dev's who would have a lot of choice in the language that they get to choose not the army of "code monkey's" as you call them. Generally this would mean…
> " don't think there is pressure to move F# teams off to C#." To clarify I didn't say the move was to C# specifically. What I meant was another tech stack often in a different problem space (e.g. frontend with…
As someone who has used F# in production at least in my experience running teams that do (on some very large products generating significant value to be vague about it) teams don't want to stop using it once they get…
Its an interesting question. I've found personally people with previous imperative/functional language (e.g. JS/Go/etc) have picked up F# quicker, and people with OO knowledge (C++, Java, etc) have picked up C# quicker.…
Precisely. Inflation is not even - if it were it wouldn't be nearly as much of a concern. There are winners (e.g. corporate profits) and losers (e.g. workers on fixed salaries). Unfortunately some economic actors can…
Still a potential possibility - sadly IMO more so than the utopia vision of AI; thanks for reminding me of this. We simply become fodder for the things AI can't reasonably do in the "real world" until it can with the…
Sadly capitalism rewards scarcity at a macro level, which in some ways is the opposite of efficiency. It also grants "social status" to the scarce via more resources. As long as you aren't disrupted, and everyone in…
There is also a chance that a lot of this capex is written off, and the money becomes "sunk". Bad for the current players, but given inference costs as you mention are profitable, after the writeoffs and the market…
I think you can enjoy both aspects - both the problem solving and the craft. There will be people who agree that of course from a rational perspective solving the problem is what matters, but for them personally the…
I think the reason for the negativity in this forum (and other threads I've seen over the past few months) is because people are engaged with AI and it seems are deep down not happy with its direction even if they are…
The question is not whether you can or can't, but whether it is still worth it long term: - There is a moat of doing so (i.e. will people actually pay for your SaaS knowing that they could do it too via AI) and.. - How…
I sadly think if the promise of AI happens this is the likely economic outcome. The last century or so was an anomaly from most of human history; a trend created by the "arms race" of needing educated workers. The…
That's what AI does. Makes power and politics have even more of a premium vs say learning, intelligence and hard work. Connections, wealth and power. It is almost ironic that our industry is inventing the thing that…
Agree with most of what you said except for the "big bucks" part. Why would I pay for your product when I can ask the AI to do it? To be honest I think I would rather use that money for anything else if I can spend a…
That's kinda obvious that's their goal especially with the current focus on coding of most of the AI labs in most announcements - it may be augmentation now but that isn't the end game. Everything else these AI labs do,…
I'm not sure where construction and physical work goes into your categories. Process and chores maybe. But I think AI will struggle in the physical domain - validation is difficult and repeated experiments to train on…
This is what I think as well. Unfortunately for the AI proponents they already made an example of the software industry. Its on news reports in the US and globally; most people are no longer recommending to get into the…
This is the reason IMO. Fundamentally China right now is better at manufacturing (e.g. robotics). AI is the complement to this - AI increases the demand for tech manufactured goods. Whereas America is in the opposite…
Just my opinion/observation really but I believe its because people are implicitly entertaining the possibility that it is no longer about software or rather this announcement implicitly states that talent long term…
More likely they will tailor/RL train these models to go after coders first. Use RLHF employing coders where labor is cheap to train their models. A number of reasons for this of course: - Faster product development on…
Its a common view from the "do'ers" (the people who made most of the value in the past; the hard workers, etc) that this will make management redundant. Sadly with a basic understanding of economics you can see this is…
Money buys real assets which will be worth something; AI can't magic up land or energy for instance. In fact AI is a dream for capital, and a nightmare for labor/work/human intelligence w.r.t value.
A lot of the fluff is all about boosting sales IMO which is where a lot of money for tech comes from. When MBA types (a large chunk of tech's buyers) hear the promises of efficiency, and replacing workers they get all…
Indeed. I'm already seeing it in software at least anecdotally where people's will to post code open source/answer Stackoverflow questions, etc are drying up (i.e. am I working hard just to train someone else's AI?).…
> 1. Learn how the subject matter experts do the work. This will get harder I think over time as low hanging fruit domains are picked - the barrier will be people not technology. Especially if the moat for that…
My hypothesis is that F# is somewhat self selecting at senior/lead dev's who would have a lot of choice in the language that they get to choose not the army of "code monkey's" as you call them. Generally this would mean…
> " don't think there is pressure to move F# teams off to C#." To clarify I didn't say the move was to C# specifically. What I meant was another tech stack often in a different problem space (e.g. frontend with…
As someone who has used F# in production at least in my experience running teams that do (on some very large products generating significant value to be vague about it) teams don't want to stop using it once they get…
Its an interesting question. I've found personally people with previous imperative/functional language (e.g. JS/Go/etc) have picked up F# quicker, and people with OO knowledge (C++, Java, etc) have picked up C# quicker.…
Precisely. Inflation is not even - if it were it wouldn't be nearly as much of a concern. There are winners (e.g. corporate profits) and losers (e.g. workers on fixed salaries). Unfortunately some economic actors can…
Still a potential possibility - sadly IMO more so than the utopia vision of AI; thanks for reminding me of this. We simply become fodder for the things AI can't reasonably do in the "real world" until it can with the…