>the ones who don't want it enough will go away, and the ones that do will want it enough that it's worth your while.. Counterpoint: if you think you need to pay for my attention, that's a negative signal for what…
The paradox is that the person most likely to do extra work is the person you want to hear from least. If someone felt the need to pay (for example) $5,000 to talk to me, it's probably because they don't feel they have…
I feel like you're ignoring the size of each of these impacts. Sitting around a campfire once a month will likely increase your cancer risk. But it increases your cancer risk way, way less than smoking a pack of…
> This person probably had the best diet in the world and received top tier care, so how did he end up with something like that? If you lower your chances of dying of every common thing, your relative chance of dying of…
>What else would this be but intelligence? Imagine if your AI didn’t know what words mean and couldn’t do math and you still tried to make the assertion that it was just as intelligent. Counterpoint: If I don't teach a…
Is there a reason you expect IQ to be unbounded? Feels like there are physical constraints, at which point you're sampling from a truncated normal distribution (or similar).
The abstract quite literary cautions against the way you're interpreting the data. The relevant quote: > Notably, these gains do not uniformly translate to a rise in underlying GMA, suggesting the presence of…
My understanding is that Musk doesn't have a controlling share of Tesla. So by the letter of the law, a SpaceX acquisition would qualify as a change in control (because we've gone to a new majority owner).
>What would it mean if SpaceX buys Tesla though? Does the combined market cap count? That would be wrong. I took a look at the proxy statement as they have it outlined in this [0] document (Proposal 4). As currently…
True, but "a better apple" is unequivocally less impactful than "you no longer have to walk to the river any time you want to drink a glass of water." I think it's easier to see if you think in 20 year increments. The…
Yeah, it gets weird when you start trying to compare human versus AI energy demands because you can turn a computer off, but you can't really turn a human off. Most studies indicate that humans can do 3-4 hours of…
>The innovations aren't better versions of things we had in the past, they are more so unique new inventions. Plumbing is not electricity is not globalized food chains is not computers. This is only sort of true.…
The parent comment is quoted as: > in one assignment I remember comparing the energy outputs between the human and robot equivalents of different tasks, whether or not the robot was humanoid in how it was designed So I…
This point is valid. However, lifestyle improvement rate is something that's slowing over time because of physical constraints. For example, the vehicle mortality rate is 1.44 per 100 million miles driven. That's down…
Studies on grandmaster chess players indicate that at most you burn 10% more calories when engaged in deep thought than when you're at rest. So the energy "attributable" to an hour of knowledge work is like 10 calories…
> but there were no privacy features before. so we’re actually still much better off than we were for hundreds of years before this. One notable thing we have today that we didn't have 100 years ago is a computer.…
I assume (and this is a big assumption) that the US government will be focused on limiting access to the latest model, not necessarily everything smarter than Fable 5. Having access to the frontier model from a year ago…
Your intuition is largely correct. For any given level of adaptive problem solver, approximately 55% of those people share the same literacy level (i.e. a Level 1 adaptive problem solver is also a Level 1 for literacy…
The balance here is that good schools are one of the amenities that keep property values high and they have pretty high fixed costs. So you lose some economy of scale when enrollment drops, you have to cut school…
The main cost benefits are that you don't have to pay for marketing, underwriting, plan administration for a bunch of different plan types, negotiating with thousands of employers on the premium they'll pay, etc. I…
The insurance company that provides your ACA plans gets money from the government for doing so. How much money they get is tied to a few things (not an exhaustive list): 1. On average, how healthy is your group of ACA…
I'm going to link my favorite survey [0] to illustrate this point. Its called the PIAAC, and it's a internationally standardized assessment of adult skills in literacy, numeracy, and problem solving. 28% of the US is at…
I think the relationship people are seeing is "80 year old can't fill out my form, must be because they can't use a computer." But international surveys like PIAAC [0] indicate that adaptive problem solving is the real…
I do think it's worth looking at a few of his other posts (I'm a fan) to lend some credence to this one speficially. The more history-focused (so not aimed at worldbuilders) pieces are consistently well-sourced in a way…
The Venn diagram of "people that want traditional small town life" and "people that currently live in a small town" has a smaller overlap than you'd think. The small towns in my area are desirable not just because…
>the ones who don't want it enough will go away, and the ones that do will want it enough that it's worth your while.. Counterpoint: if you think you need to pay for my attention, that's a negative signal for what…
The paradox is that the person most likely to do extra work is the person you want to hear from least. If someone felt the need to pay (for example) $5,000 to talk to me, it's probably because they don't feel they have…
I feel like you're ignoring the size of each of these impacts. Sitting around a campfire once a month will likely increase your cancer risk. But it increases your cancer risk way, way less than smoking a pack of…
> This person probably had the best diet in the world and received top tier care, so how did he end up with something like that? If you lower your chances of dying of every common thing, your relative chance of dying of…
>What else would this be but intelligence? Imagine if your AI didn’t know what words mean and couldn’t do math and you still tried to make the assertion that it was just as intelligent. Counterpoint: If I don't teach a…
Is there a reason you expect IQ to be unbounded? Feels like there are physical constraints, at which point you're sampling from a truncated normal distribution (or similar).
The abstract quite literary cautions against the way you're interpreting the data. The relevant quote: > Notably, these gains do not uniformly translate to a rise in underlying GMA, suggesting the presence of…
My understanding is that Musk doesn't have a controlling share of Tesla. So by the letter of the law, a SpaceX acquisition would qualify as a change in control (because we've gone to a new majority owner).
>What would it mean if SpaceX buys Tesla though? Does the combined market cap count? That would be wrong. I took a look at the proxy statement as they have it outlined in this [0] document (Proposal 4). As currently…
True, but "a better apple" is unequivocally less impactful than "you no longer have to walk to the river any time you want to drink a glass of water." I think it's easier to see if you think in 20 year increments. The…
Yeah, it gets weird when you start trying to compare human versus AI energy demands because you can turn a computer off, but you can't really turn a human off. Most studies indicate that humans can do 3-4 hours of…
>The innovations aren't better versions of things we had in the past, they are more so unique new inventions. Plumbing is not electricity is not globalized food chains is not computers. This is only sort of true.…
The parent comment is quoted as: > in one assignment I remember comparing the energy outputs between the human and robot equivalents of different tasks, whether or not the robot was humanoid in how it was designed So I…
This point is valid. However, lifestyle improvement rate is something that's slowing over time because of physical constraints. For example, the vehicle mortality rate is 1.44 per 100 million miles driven. That's down…
Studies on grandmaster chess players indicate that at most you burn 10% more calories when engaged in deep thought than when you're at rest. So the energy "attributable" to an hour of knowledge work is like 10 calories…
> but there were no privacy features before. so we’re actually still much better off than we were for hundreds of years before this. One notable thing we have today that we didn't have 100 years ago is a computer.…
I assume (and this is a big assumption) that the US government will be focused on limiting access to the latest model, not necessarily everything smarter than Fable 5. Having access to the frontier model from a year ago…
Your intuition is largely correct. For any given level of adaptive problem solver, approximately 55% of those people share the same literacy level (i.e. a Level 1 adaptive problem solver is also a Level 1 for literacy…
The balance here is that good schools are one of the amenities that keep property values high and they have pretty high fixed costs. So you lose some economy of scale when enrollment drops, you have to cut school…
The main cost benefits are that you don't have to pay for marketing, underwriting, plan administration for a bunch of different plan types, negotiating with thousands of employers on the premium they'll pay, etc. I…
The insurance company that provides your ACA plans gets money from the government for doing so. How much money they get is tied to a few things (not an exhaustive list): 1. On average, how healthy is your group of ACA…
I'm going to link my favorite survey [0] to illustrate this point. Its called the PIAAC, and it's a internationally standardized assessment of adult skills in literacy, numeracy, and problem solving. 28% of the US is at…
I think the relationship people are seeing is "80 year old can't fill out my form, must be because they can't use a computer." But international surveys like PIAAC [0] indicate that adaptive problem solving is the real…
I do think it's worth looking at a few of his other posts (I'm a fan) to lend some credence to this one speficially. The more history-focused (so not aimed at worldbuilders) pieces are consistently well-sourced in a way…
The Venn diagram of "people that want traditional small town life" and "people that currently live in a small town" has a smaller overlap than you'd think. The small towns in my area are desirable not just because…