This is an underappreciated point. The economy would likely be in freefall without AI. Yes, things look bleak for current college grads. The bitter pill to swallow is that they began college in the boom times of…
China probably doesn’t accept Dominican pesos, either, and yet you’d be hard pressed to say that somebody with 100 billion Dominican pesos just has some random numbers. If you can exchange something for another form of…
I tend to agree, but for the sake of argument: it’s possible that he’s such a true believer that he’d see cashing out as a betrayal. Alternatively, he might understand that cashing out would significantly aid the…
This is a limitation of the training data. If you were uncertain about something, you wouldn’t write a book about it. The kinds of people you’re talking about tend to generate far more text in their lives than others,…
Do you have any recommendations for colorization tools? I agree that all of the popular image models subtly tweak faces, it is very uncanny when working with pictures of people I knew before they passed. In a pre-GPT…
Until the humanoid robots gain the ability to process caffeine, then we’re all hosed.
The demand is real. The tech is real. The economics are completely unsustainable. Switching costs and barriers to entry are too low, operating costs are too high. And if the tech improves, it actually makes it even…
I’m not talking about training costs. I’m talking about startup costs. You have to pay for GPUs (or to rent data centers). You have to pay for the electricity that runs those data centers, and in a lot of cases these…
Profitable on what basis? They generate more revenue than the cost of electricity? Does that factor in the cost to service the massive, multi-layer cake of debt that was necessary to even begin to serve inference in the…
The difference is switching costs and the viability of alternatives. Even open source models are only a few months behind the frontier labs, which is a long time in tech but practically no time at all in the eyes of a…
But this is exactly the problem - we have to take it on faith that inference is profitable because nobody actually knows. It’s hard to even define what that would mean, and while I am suspicious of claims that frontier…
The winner will be the last man standing. The company which is able to continue subsidizing tokens after all others have been forced to throttle and raise prices. Soak up the market share, wait for your rivals’…
Not sure it qualifies as an “LLM prediction,” but he was adamant that Nvidia would not come through with the $100 billion funding round, and sure enough they did not.
I found Gemini to keep asking the same follow-up questions regardless of my responses. In discussing a health topic, it repeatedly offered recipes for healthy snacks - 4 times, before I finally affirmatively said “no, I…
I had this experience when I was trying to find an apartment - multiple different buildings very clearly had AI-generated responses. (To all you builders out there: quick replies are great. Instant replies are…
I see this as well. Part of the appeal of any crafting hobby is that it doesn’t matter and you can just mess around, but the flip side is that nobody is breathing down your neck to get it done and you can take the time…
What is it that makes all these vibe coded websites use the same font? Is there no way to change it?
The conditions are either an IPO or achieving AGI. I’d be curious to know how the contract defines AGI. If I recall correctly, the OAI-Microsoft deal just defined it as “AI-shaped tech that can generate $100 billion in…
I am much more interested in how headcounts compare to 2019 than to 2025 (let alone 2022). Certainly, this is not a comfort to anyone who is losing their job. But I don’t remember anyone panicking about an unemployment…
They may be victims of their own success here. At a certain point, if you can consistently make perfect images indistinguishable from reality, you’re done improving. All that’s left to do is make it faster or cheaper or…
One thing I notice is that the voices in video AI are absolute hogwash. Voice AI is great, video AI is great, but AI videos where humans speak give me the feel of really poorly dubbed foreign TV - the timing is not…
That’s a fair point. But in most markets you don’t have a half dozen competitors jumping down your throat trying to give you the same service ad-free. Netflix can introduce ads without major quitting because you can’t…
When OpenAI starts requiring a payment, or showing an ad before it starts translating, will they continue? Or will they use the Google Translate app, which can do this locally? (Or for that matter Gemini or Grok or…
To go vertical they’d need to illustrate the value-add, a problem that the vertical competitors already have. Why use Claude for Accountants at $300/month when regular Claude will do the same thing for much less? The…
I had this same thought. Seems fairly easy to just put off a strong false signal. If you don’t want anyone to know that you live in Finland, make a point to constantly mention how much you enjoy living in Peru.
This is an underappreciated point. The economy would likely be in freefall without AI. Yes, things look bleak for current college grads. The bitter pill to swallow is that they began college in the boom times of…
China probably doesn’t accept Dominican pesos, either, and yet you’d be hard pressed to say that somebody with 100 billion Dominican pesos just has some random numbers. If you can exchange something for another form of…
I tend to agree, but for the sake of argument: it’s possible that he’s such a true believer that he’d see cashing out as a betrayal. Alternatively, he might understand that cashing out would significantly aid the…
This is a limitation of the training data. If you were uncertain about something, you wouldn’t write a book about it. The kinds of people you’re talking about tend to generate far more text in their lives than others,…
Do you have any recommendations for colorization tools? I agree that all of the popular image models subtly tweak faces, it is very uncanny when working with pictures of people I knew before they passed. In a pre-GPT…
Until the humanoid robots gain the ability to process caffeine, then we’re all hosed.
The demand is real. The tech is real. The economics are completely unsustainable. Switching costs and barriers to entry are too low, operating costs are too high. And if the tech improves, it actually makes it even…
I’m not talking about training costs. I’m talking about startup costs. You have to pay for GPUs (or to rent data centers). You have to pay for the electricity that runs those data centers, and in a lot of cases these…
Profitable on what basis? They generate more revenue than the cost of electricity? Does that factor in the cost to service the massive, multi-layer cake of debt that was necessary to even begin to serve inference in the…
The difference is switching costs and the viability of alternatives. Even open source models are only a few months behind the frontier labs, which is a long time in tech but practically no time at all in the eyes of a…
But this is exactly the problem - we have to take it on faith that inference is profitable because nobody actually knows. It’s hard to even define what that would mean, and while I am suspicious of claims that frontier…
The winner will be the last man standing. The company which is able to continue subsidizing tokens after all others have been forced to throttle and raise prices. Soak up the market share, wait for your rivals’…
Not sure it qualifies as an “LLM prediction,” but he was adamant that Nvidia would not come through with the $100 billion funding round, and sure enough they did not.
I found Gemini to keep asking the same follow-up questions regardless of my responses. In discussing a health topic, it repeatedly offered recipes for healthy snacks - 4 times, before I finally affirmatively said “no, I…
I had this experience when I was trying to find an apartment - multiple different buildings very clearly had AI-generated responses. (To all you builders out there: quick replies are great. Instant replies are…
I see this as well. Part of the appeal of any crafting hobby is that it doesn’t matter and you can just mess around, but the flip side is that nobody is breathing down your neck to get it done and you can take the time…
What is it that makes all these vibe coded websites use the same font? Is there no way to change it?
The conditions are either an IPO or achieving AGI. I’d be curious to know how the contract defines AGI. If I recall correctly, the OAI-Microsoft deal just defined it as “AI-shaped tech that can generate $100 billion in…
I am much more interested in how headcounts compare to 2019 than to 2025 (let alone 2022). Certainly, this is not a comfort to anyone who is losing their job. But I don’t remember anyone panicking about an unemployment…
They may be victims of their own success here. At a certain point, if you can consistently make perfect images indistinguishable from reality, you’re done improving. All that’s left to do is make it faster or cheaper or…
One thing I notice is that the voices in video AI are absolute hogwash. Voice AI is great, video AI is great, but AI videos where humans speak give me the feel of really poorly dubbed foreign TV - the timing is not…
That’s a fair point. But in most markets you don’t have a half dozen competitors jumping down your throat trying to give you the same service ad-free. Netflix can introduce ads without major quitting because you can’t…
When OpenAI starts requiring a payment, or showing an ad before it starts translating, will they continue? Or will they use the Google Translate app, which can do this locally? (Or for that matter Gemini or Grok or…
To go vertical they’d need to illustrate the value-add, a problem that the vertical competitors already have. Why use Claude for Accountants at $300/month when regular Claude will do the same thing for much less? The…
I had this same thought. Seems fairly easy to just put off a strong false signal. If you don’t want anyone to know that you live in Finland, make a point to constantly mention how much you enjoy living in Peru.