A lot of Harvey’s value prop is not in the underlying software - someone else came out with an “open source Harvey” (called “Mike”) months ago and it hasn’t really put a dent in uptake of Harvey or its main rival,…
Mistral Large 4 has been spending too much time on r/atheism. Also, some of the takes labeled as “humans value belonging ahead of truth” are really closer to “humans value power ahead of truth.” All of which is a bit…
I keep seeing this argument. But isn’t the inverse true as well - if you extrapolate from the past movement of the ball, you will see it going way farther than it will actually go because of friction, wind, someone…
Writing is a very slippery thing. “Good” writing from 200 years ago reads as unbelievably dense and overwrought to most people today. So even if you made an LLM that was “good” at writing, how long would it stay that…
A lot of the examples they show seem to be focused on common law countries. The US and UK are where most of the money is to be made in the legal industry, but I am curious to see what ripple effects we get from people…
The web was a shared experience, by its very nature. The interconnection was the point. LLMs allow anyone to put themselves in a one-man bubble of their own creation. In a way, it is the antithesis of the internet - if…
Hemingway also borrowed the penultimate line in For Whom The Bell Tolls. I also had to memorize this back in the day but I still stop to read it whenever I see it somewhere.
That tells me very little. What was the cost to OpenAI in dollars? What differentiates the high-cost problems from the low-cost problems? And that’s before you consider that OpenAI has strong incentives to downplay its…
Not a doomer but I try not to be a denier, either. These are hugely impressive results. I do not see the technology plateauing at the current level (though I am dubious about an infinite exponential growth). Before I…
For antitrust purposes below-cost pricing is not expressly illegal. It is only illegal if there is a “dangerous probability” that the firm in question will be able to recoup its losses after eliminating its competitors…
They spend 95% of the money, perhaps, but burning compute is not the same as doing the work.
Yes, I do. They’ve definitely gotten better, I wouldn’t dispute that. But we haven’t gone from useless toys to Skynet in the last 6 months, progress is slower and steadier than that.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens to the economics of this business if we hit a wall on peak intelligence but keep finding cool ways to lower prices.
Unfortunately focusing on the fanfic prevents everyone from focusing on the genuinely world-altering threat of cybersecurity becoming completely impossible for a while. But perhaps that’s the point, because you can be…
Gary Marcus is an especially puzzling addition. If I recall correctly, he has made statements along the lines that superintelligence this century is more likely than not. If you’re AGI-pilled that might read as bearish,…
Buried under the drama is the fact that OpenAI is claiming that an internal model they’ve been training for less than two weeks is more than twice as capable in mathematics as Astra, which was only made public a week…
You can have a great “writing style” and still put together really crappy long-form work. The problem is that AI writing, particularly creative writing, is too repetitive, too predictable, too trope-laden. All of the…
I don’t even see why they have to be bioengineered. We have all-natural human beings doing this right now, except they are rubber-stamping human rather than artificial directives.
I guess I don’t see why “everyone will die” should scare me more than “almost everyone, including me, will die but someone somewhere might survive in a barely-habitable world.” And this is where I think some of the…
Otherwise-rational and moral people do bad things at the behest of powerful superintelligences with vast resources all the time. We call them “corporations,” and they can convince bright-eyed college graduates to do…
Autonomy is not the same as general intelligence. We already have all kinds of fully autonomous technologies that are nowhere close to generally intelligent. Plus, at a certain level of abstraction, human beings also…
The blog post says 99.9%. Oddly, it does better on ARC-AGI-3 than it does on version 1 or 2 of the same benchmark (though gets 95+ on all three)
I’m very curious about your esoteric public figures benchmark, do you ask it in English or Korean to identify the person? Does it change the result? I wonder if having data labeled in only a given language (or web…
This is exactly right. Now, that does mean something about Zitron: he’s a pundit, not an expert or a forecasting genius. You could point to any number of analogous booster types. Twitter/X somehow loves pushing these…
To commit fraud you have to lie, deceive, or conceal. All of this bonkers financing is happening in broad daylight, announced to the markets, and met with rave reviews. I tend to agree with Zitron that the whole thing…
A lot of Harvey’s value prop is not in the underlying software - someone else came out with an “open source Harvey” (called “Mike”) months ago and it hasn’t really put a dent in uptake of Harvey or its main rival,…
Mistral Large 4 has been spending too much time on r/atheism. Also, some of the takes labeled as “humans value belonging ahead of truth” are really closer to “humans value power ahead of truth.” All of which is a bit…
I keep seeing this argument. But isn’t the inverse true as well - if you extrapolate from the past movement of the ball, you will see it going way farther than it will actually go because of friction, wind, someone…
Writing is a very slippery thing. “Good” writing from 200 years ago reads as unbelievably dense and overwrought to most people today. So even if you made an LLM that was “good” at writing, how long would it stay that…
A lot of the examples they show seem to be focused on common law countries. The US and UK are where most of the money is to be made in the legal industry, but I am curious to see what ripple effects we get from people…
The web was a shared experience, by its very nature. The interconnection was the point. LLMs allow anyone to put themselves in a one-man bubble of their own creation. In a way, it is the antithesis of the internet - if…
Hemingway also borrowed the penultimate line in For Whom The Bell Tolls. I also had to memorize this back in the day but I still stop to read it whenever I see it somewhere.
That tells me very little. What was the cost to OpenAI in dollars? What differentiates the high-cost problems from the low-cost problems? And that’s before you consider that OpenAI has strong incentives to downplay its…
Not a doomer but I try not to be a denier, either. These are hugely impressive results. I do not see the technology plateauing at the current level (though I am dubious about an infinite exponential growth). Before I…
For antitrust purposes below-cost pricing is not expressly illegal. It is only illegal if there is a “dangerous probability” that the firm in question will be able to recoup its losses after eliminating its competitors…
They spend 95% of the money, perhaps, but burning compute is not the same as doing the work.
Yes, I do. They’ve definitely gotten better, I wouldn’t dispute that. But we haven’t gone from useless toys to Skynet in the last 6 months, progress is slower and steadier than that.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens to the economics of this business if we hit a wall on peak intelligence but keep finding cool ways to lower prices.
Unfortunately focusing on the fanfic prevents everyone from focusing on the genuinely world-altering threat of cybersecurity becoming completely impossible for a while. But perhaps that’s the point, because you can be…
Gary Marcus is an especially puzzling addition. If I recall correctly, he has made statements along the lines that superintelligence this century is more likely than not. If you’re AGI-pilled that might read as bearish,…
Buried under the drama is the fact that OpenAI is claiming that an internal model they’ve been training for less than two weeks is more than twice as capable in mathematics as Astra, which was only made public a week…
You can have a great “writing style” and still put together really crappy long-form work. The problem is that AI writing, particularly creative writing, is too repetitive, too predictable, too trope-laden. All of the…
I don’t even see why they have to be bioengineered. We have all-natural human beings doing this right now, except they are rubber-stamping human rather than artificial directives.
I guess I don’t see why “everyone will die” should scare me more than “almost everyone, including me, will die but someone somewhere might survive in a barely-habitable world.” And this is where I think some of the…
Otherwise-rational and moral people do bad things at the behest of powerful superintelligences with vast resources all the time. We call them “corporations,” and they can convince bright-eyed college graduates to do…
Autonomy is not the same as general intelligence. We already have all kinds of fully autonomous technologies that are nowhere close to generally intelligent. Plus, at a certain level of abstraction, human beings also…
The blog post says 99.9%. Oddly, it does better on ARC-AGI-3 than it does on version 1 or 2 of the same benchmark (though gets 95+ on all three)
I’m very curious about your esoteric public figures benchmark, do you ask it in English or Korean to identify the person? Does it change the result? I wonder if having data labeled in only a given language (or web…
This is exactly right. Now, that does mean something about Zitron: he’s a pundit, not an expert or a forecasting genius. You could point to any number of analogous booster types. Twitter/X somehow loves pushing these…
To commit fraud you have to lie, deceive, or conceal. All of this bonkers financing is happening in broad daylight, announced to the markets, and met with rave reviews. I tend to agree with Zitron that the whole thing…