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bturtel

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  1. A small economic forecaster trained from raw Fed PDFs beat GPT-5 (blog.lightningrod.ai)
    5 points 0
  2. Show HN: Open-source LLM and dataset for sports forecasting (Pro Golf) (huggingface.co)

    Hey HN, I fine-tuned a small open-source model on golf forecasting and it beats GPT-5 at predicting golf outcomes. The same approach can be used to build a specialized model in any domain, you just need to update a few…

    7 points 0
  3. Show HN: Trained an LLM to predict "What will Trump do?" (huggingface.co)

    Hey HN! I RL-tuned an open-source LLM (gpt-oss-120b — 120B MoE, but only 5.1B active params) to predict "What will Trump do?" in any situation, trained on nothing but public news collected automatically from search…

    10 points 1
  4. What can't be automated? The Last Human Bottleneck (bturtel.substack.com)
    2 points 1
  5. Future-as-Label: Scalable Supervision from Real-World Outcomes (arxiv.org)
    17 points 0
  6. TMLR: Outcome-Based Reinforcement Learning to Predict the Future (openreview.net)
    4 points 1
  7. Natural Selection Is Already Shaping AI (bturtel.substack.com)
    2 points 0
  8. Flooding the AI Frontier (bturtel.substack.com)
    2 points 0
  9. Foresight-32B Beats Frontier LLMs on Live Polymarket Predictions (blog.lightningrod.ai)
    6 points 0
  10. Why Apple Will (Eventually) Win AI (bturtel.substack.com)
    7 points 0
  11. Outcome-Based Reinforcement Learning to Predict the Future (arxiv.org)
    99 points 16
  12. What remains scarce post-AGI? (bturtel.substack.com)
    1 points 1
  13. Why humans are still much better than AI at forecasting the future (vox.com)
    5 points 1
  14. LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future (arxiv.org)
    176 points 91
  15. Show HN: Sculptor – Python library for LLM structured data extraction (MIT) (github.com)

    I built Sculptor after repeatedly seeing founders try to hire data scientists for a task that ultimately boiled down to extracting structured data from unstructured text (customer records, social posts, websites, etc)…

    9 points 0
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  17. Show HN: Pensive – AI mental health coaching backed by science (pensiveapp.com)

    Hey HN! We turned proven practices (from CBT, DBT, Stoicism, and more) into guided 5-minute conversations with a personalized AI coach. Traditional care is broken: expensive ($200/hr), inconvenient, and often…

    8 points 2
  18. 1 points 0
  19. 1 points 0
  20. Sunlight is more effective than censorship (cointelegraph.com)
    4 points 5