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convexly

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  1. 1 points 0
  2. We scored 10k Polymarket wallets. Calibration barely predicts profit (convexly.app)
    4 points 0
  3. We tested the insider trading claim on Polymarket with Taleb-proof methods (convexly.app)
    6 points 4
  4. Show HN: I built a 2-min quiz that shows you how bad you are at estimating (convexly.app)

    I've gotten to the point in my career where I now make strategic decisions often (hiring, firing, choosing what equipment to go with, etc.), as well as in my personal life where I need to strongly weigh my options for a…

    20 points 29
  5. Ask HN: Are Brier scores useful for personal decision making?

    I've been looking at Brier scores and log scoring from Tetlock-style forecasting recently and am trying to determine if they could be applied to my personal decision making. However, I'm not really sold on how useful…

    1 points 0