Frankly, these mathematicians have more credibility than the sociopaths running OpenAI
You can expect the OpenAI defenders to be out in full force here.
I think we know enough about reinforcement learning to tell that it won’t be able to entirely replace human mathematicians. All of the techniques used by these AI firms are well-studied.
You can imagine whatever you want, but I don’t see why that means we have to take it seriously.
Pretty sure I’m not the delusional one…
Then why is unemployment around 4%? You believe we have AGI and yet it can’t do anyone’s job?
This is silly sci-fi fiction. You guys are inventing scenarios to spook yourselves with - it’s nonsense.
Or it’s an indication that progress has plateaued. But instead of accepting this, you’d rather we just throw out the entire benchmark.
Can’t wait for 3 months from now when they declare they actually really do have AGI this time, please guys just believe us
They call it out but don’t address it. How is that helpful?
Well, the man in charge of OpenAI is a notorious pathological liar. Is that not enough in and of itself to cast doubt on claims like this?
Circles like HN? Seems like a lot of folks here bought into it in the thread discussing the article.
Didn’t they also hire the guy behind Moltbook?
Of course people (apparently) care, as evidenced by this thread. But should they? I certainly don’t think so.
This is like a grade school-tier insult. The entire article is about predictions, of course I’m talking about them. I just think the obsession with the accuracy of short-term predictions is absurd and pedantic.
AI enthusiasts have turned this into a religious war, like it or not. Far too many people here have tied their entire sense of self and worth to the success of AI, and will attack anyone who challenges their narrative…
Everyone is always throwing darts at a dartboard when making predictions. I don’t know why you think this is a critique that applies exclusively to Zitron.
Ok, but it also means we shouldn’t immediately discredit people who make incorrect short-term predictions, because those are really hard and no individual person consistently gets them right. You can worship at the…
Who cares about predictions to this extent? They’re practically always incorrect or flawed in some way, and most people understand and accept that. No need to be so neurotic about it.
You are being extremely dramatic, and no one should take AI 2027 seriously. Must be tough to live in constant fear like this.
There were no consequences the first time, so I imagine it wasn’t very stressful at all.
I honestly don’t understand why you care so much about the “rigor of predictions”. Short-term predictions are almost always at least somewhat inaccurate, no matter who’s doing the predicting. Directional accuracy…
So does everyone else, including prominent AI enthusiasts and tech CEOs. And most of those predictions are wrong, because predictions are really hard.
Why is Zitron’s repute evaluated entirely on the basis of failed predictions? Predictions are incredibly hard. AI enthusiasts and thought leaders have made so many demonstrably incorrect predictions it’s hard to keep…
I agree. But it seems like this site has become so radicalized that this measured take is now anathema.
Frankly, these mathematicians have more credibility than the sociopaths running OpenAI
You can expect the OpenAI defenders to be out in full force here.
I think we know enough about reinforcement learning to tell that it won’t be able to entirely replace human mathematicians. All of the techniques used by these AI firms are well-studied.
You can imagine whatever you want, but I don’t see why that means we have to take it seriously.
Pretty sure I’m not the delusional one…
Then why is unemployment around 4%? You believe we have AGI and yet it can’t do anyone’s job?
This is silly sci-fi fiction. You guys are inventing scenarios to spook yourselves with - it’s nonsense.
Or it’s an indication that progress has plateaued. But instead of accepting this, you’d rather we just throw out the entire benchmark.
Can’t wait for 3 months from now when they declare they actually really do have AGI this time, please guys just believe us
They call it out but don’t address it. How is that helpful?
Well, the man in charge of OpenAI is a notorious pathological liar. Is that not enough in and of itself to cast doubt on claims like this?
Circles like HN? Seems like a lot of folks here bought into it in the thread discussing the article.
Didn’t they also hire the guy behind Moltbook?
Of course people (apparently) care, as evidenced by this thread. But should they? I certainly don’t think so.
This is like a grade school-tier insult. The entire article is about predictions, of course I’m talking about them. I just think the obsession with the accuracy of short-term predictions is absurd and pedantic.
AI enthusiasts have turned this into a religious war, like it or not. Far too many people here have tied their entire sense of self and worth to the success of AI, and will attack anyone who challenges their narrative…
Everyone is always throwing darts at a dartboard when making predictions. I don’t know why you think this is a critique that applies exclusively to Zitron.
Ok, but it also means we shouldn’t immediately discredit people who make incorrect short-term predictions, because those are really hard and no individual person consistently gets them right. You can worship at the…
Who cares about predictions to this extent? They’re practically always incorrect or flawed in some way, and most people understand and accept that. No need to be so neurotic about it.
You are being extremely dramatic, and no one should take AI 2027 seriously. Must be tough to live in constant fear like this.
There were no consequences the first time, so I imagine it wasn’t very stressful at all.
I honestly don’t understand why you care so much about the “rigor of predictions”. Short-term predictions are almost always at least somewhat inaccurate, no matter who’s doing the predicting. Directional accuracy…
So does everyone else, including prominent AI enthusiasts and tech CEOs. And most of those predictions are wrong, because predictions are really hard.
Why is Zitron’s repute evaluated entirely on the basis of failed predictions? Predictions are incredibly hard. AI enthusiasts and thought leaders have made so many demonstrably incorrect predictions it’s hard to keep…
I agree. But it seems like this site has become so radicalized that this measured take is now anathema.