yes, the long tail of difficult event is exponentially more difficult to handle. That's why I said above that people "feel" it is ready but it is nowhere to be even close to ready. The average crash rate for human is…
If you drove with a very very bad driver that crashes every 50k miles (average is every 500k miles), you would have exactly the same feeling and you would also be tempted to take a nap.
100 Miles literally don't matter. Even 1000. On average accidents happens every 500k miles. Are you ready to have your tesla drive FSD with you sleeping in it for 500k? You are letting your feeling dictate that FSD is…
100% and even if they might not "replace" a senior or staff SWE, they can make their job significantly easier which means that instead of requiring 5 Senior or Staff you will only need two. LLM WILL change the job…
This i what is so tricky with Self Driving. People "feel" it is almost there because most of their rides are mostly ok. However to make a system truly driverless you need to master the long tails of difficult events and…
I worked in this industry. No, FSD is not almost there. Not even close. What matters is the long tails of events. You might "feel" it is almost there because it gets it right 99.9% of the time but that is still way too…
Weird jumping to conclusion How do we know this is to seek revenge, and not just a way for the other elephant to attempt to get some water as well?
exactly this. Working with a couple ex-google and ex-facebook. Without failing every meeting we hear at least once "At Google/Facebook we used to ..." for something that is completely not applicable here.
Ah, another one of those infamous 2018 blog posts on "why I quit Google". And those blog posts absolutely always start by telling you that the engineers at Google are the smartest in the world. Oh boy are those people…
Large companies fail in spectacular ways all the time. Google is super successful because they tapped into the biggest cash cow of all times. Not because the employees are somehow very capable and above any oversight.
Good luck proving that your data was not deleted. GDPR and CCPA etc made it easy to send a request for deletion that will most probably be a frontend gimmick. How much effort are they really going to put into going back…
Exactly this. Especially for a currently failing company that got an incentive to NOT delete your data (because that's the only value they still have).
common advice is to never connect your smart TV to the network. Only use the HDMI inputs.
I would rather say that it is easy to have zero drama when most of the committers come from a single large companies.
Ah yes Deloitte. Always there to sell the latest hype technology.
you only need that if you have multiple adversarial parties that all want to commit to a shared immutable history. This is a use case with a single source of truth (the DMV). So again, why do we need a blockchain?
lol
So no different than a database. Why did this need to be a blockchain. The information comes from a centralized database anyways
Even with all those points, you would in most cases end up with more assets renting something equivalent and dumping your down payment and mortgage in the SP500. Again, the main advantage of a mortgage is that it forces…
Homes should not be an investment. And Homes are also generally a bad investment even though there is a whole lobby of people that try to convince you that you need to buy at any price. The only reason why homes have…
My 2 cents from an immigrant: Most people that claim they cannot pay the bills make more than enough to pay the bills and save but get stuck into a loop of overspending and buying things without thinking. This seems to…
Most home made calculator/spreadsheet completely gloss over all the fees and details. But also most people have already emotionally decided to buy and want to pretend they did the math to justify their decision.
You can change all those assumptions? I changed most of them and even by having rent going up 5% a year and a market return for housing of 6% a year. It also assumes the SP500 only returns 5% a year while in practice…
Even with a 13% increase you are probably still better off renting if you are in a VHCOL area. I'm in the bay area and at this point my rent could go up 100% and I would still rent. My rent is 3900$/month. The value of…
The rent or buy calculator from the NYT includes an expected rent increase over time: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/upshot/buy-rent-cal...
yes, the long tail of difficult event is exponentially more difficult to handle. That's why I said above that people "feel" it is ready but it is nowhere to be even close to ready. The average crash rate for human is…
If you drove with a very very bad driver that crashes every 50k miles (average is every 500k miles), you would have exactly the same feeling and you would also be tempted to take a nap.
100 Miles literally don't matter. Even 1000. On average accidents happens every 500k miles. Are you ready to have your tesla drive FSD with you sleeping in it for 500k? You are letting your feeling dictate that FSD is…
100% and even if they might not "replace" a senior or staff SWE, they can make their job significantly easier which means that instead of requiring 5 Senior or Staff you will only need two. LLM WILL change the job…
This i what is so tricky with Self Driving. People "feel" it is almost there because most of their rides are mostly ok. However to make a system truly driverless you need to master the long tails of difficult events and…
I worked in this industry. No, FSD is not almost there. Not even close. What matters is the long tails of events. You might "feel" it is almost there because it gets it right 99.9% of the time but that is still way too…
Weird jumping to conclusion How do we know this is to seek revenge, and not just a way for the other elephant to attempt to get some water as well?
exactly this. Working with a couple ex-google and ex-facebook. Without failing every meeting we hear at least once "At Google/Facebook we used to ..." for something that is completely not applicable here.
Ah, another one of those infamous 2018 blog posts on "why I quit Google". And those blog posts absolutely always start by telling you that the engineers at Google are the smartest in the world. Oh boy are those people…
Large companies fail in spectacular ways all the time. Google is super successful because they tapped into the biggest cash cow of all times. Not because the employees are somehow very capable and above any oversight.
Good luck proving that your data was not deleted. GDPR and CCPA etc made it easy to send a request for deletion that will most probably be a frontend gimmick. How much effort are they really going to put into going back…
Exactly this. Especially for a currently failing company that got an incentive to NOT delete your data (because that's the only value they still have).
common advice is to never connect your smart TV to the network. Only use the HDMI inputs.
I would rather say that it is easy to have zero drama when most of the committers come from a single large companies.
Ah yes Deloitte. Always there to sell the latest hype technology.
you only need that if you have multiple adversarial parties that all want to commit to a shared immutable history. This is a use case with a single source of truth (the DMV). So again, why do we need a blockchain?
lol
So no different than a database. Why did this need to be a blockchain. The information comes from a centralized database anyways
Even with all those points, you would in most cases end up with more assets renting something equivalent and dumping your down payment and mortgage in the SP500. Again, the main advantage of a mortgage is that it forces…
Homes should not be an investment. And Homes are also generally a bad investment even though there is a whole lobby of people that try to convince you that you need to buy at any price. The only reason why homes have…
My 2 cents from an immigrant: Most people that claim they cannot pay the bills make more than enough to pay the bills and save but get stuck into a loop of overspending and buying things without thinking. This seems to…
Most home made calculator/spreadsheet completely gloss over all the fees and details. But also most people have already emotionally decided to buy and want to pretend they did the math to justify their decision.
You can change all those assumptions? I changed most of them and even by having rent going up 5% a year and a market return for housing of 6% a year. It also assumes the SP500 only returns 5% a year while in practice…
Even with a 13% increase you are probably still better off renting if you are in a VHCOL area. I'm in the bay area and at this point my rent could go up 100% and I would still rent. My rent is 3900$/month. The value of…
The rent or buy calculator from the NYT includes an expected rent increase over time: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/upshot/buy-rent-cal...