Yeah I know I'm talking about it being training for war time anchor dragging. It's entirely clear that they cut cables and intend to cut more. It's not training, it's current aggression.
Doesn't make any sense to have merchants dragging anchor in active war. These actions are meeting their goals, not serving as preparation.
Maps, compass, and celestial navigation.
[dead]
I find it a bit weird to frame this in terms of "are programmers special". The obsession with the word "craft" is also fascinating. Anyway, this analysis is not predicated on my self worth. I just think software…
As they say in scandinavia, there's no bad weather only bad clothes. Suit up and brace yourself is all I can say. We should all be concerned in protecting our communities from the adjustment. Not in an doomerist way but…
The way I see it LLMs are accelerating trends that have been at play for a decade or two now. I think we are seeing bloat accelerating and the boom will eventually go bust. My hope is that from the ashes of the current…
I agree. There is a lot of accumulated bloat and a lot of newly accreted bloat from the tools built to accelerate on the recent trends. It seems to me that a big bust is about to follow the 15 year boom that started out…
Software development is not one thing. Some work like configuring frameworks is proving tractable to automation. But there's a lot more to software than writing glue code. We may never again have as many "software…
There is overemployment in software development right now and a correction is coming. Automation is just a part of it, because automated systems displace jobs and create new ones. The biggest problem, in my view, is…
You are focusing too much on an informal letter. There are lots - I am talking dozens - of peer-reviewed papers discussing the so-called "productivity paradox" There is a lot more to this discussion than one time series…
Thank you for checking the source. Celebrating that is more important than me being right so kudos. If we're going by anecdote I know way more people who quit caffeine than nicotine.
I'm sorry I don't understand what you mean when you discriminate productivity growth from productivity improvement. > So what is astounding is that the effects of the AI revolution may be visible in national-level…
> rather than just extra addictive extra effective caffeine That is a severe understatement. Nicotine is consistently ranked as one of the most addictive drugs, near cocaine and heroin. Only about 6% nicotine users…
Yes. I do agree with you on > The idea that the US lost its manufacturing is not based in reality. But I disagree with your claim that people are right in being extremely dismissive of losses in US manufacturing. >>…
Ah yes "How committees invent" is a great paper that I often think about. The role of software in reproducing organizational designs is a fascinating topic. When organizations adopt ERP, or Office, or buy into the…
I might have expressed myself poorly. I do not mean to claim Dreyfus is worth reading because correct, but that he is worth reading despite wrong. I do object to calling his writing "laughable". Thank you for the…
Ok thank you for finding more up-to-date data for US manufacturing GDP. Let's re-do the analysis with 2025 data, because I draw the line at using annualized data for a year that has not yet ended. World total: 17.6…
Considering the amount of literature I have found and read on this topic so far, I am deeply skeptical of any 3 point dismissal such as your own. I said elsewhere, I don't have any beliefs about this problem, I am…
> Famously he declared chess would never surpass human expert play. He wrote a book called "What Computers Can't Do" and another called "What Computer's Still Can't Do". He never made such a claim. In the introduction…
> You’re using numbers from five years ago Four. 2021 vs 2025. Unless you have numbers from 2026 from the future. > and you’re going to hassle me about not having accurate figures? Merely pointing out. The subjective…
Writing had been invented three thousand years before Socrates The passage criticizing the "invention of writing" is a quote for a legend where a Pharaoh passes negative judgement, to a god by the way, who had invented…
No, it wasn't. This often made claim is based on a passage of Phaedrus where Socrates is quoting an Egyptian legend, and the negative judgement of the invention of writing is done by a pharaoh inside that legend being…
> And they were right. American manufacturing is $3 trillion/year, second only to China, and 1/5th of the entire world. Values are 2021 because that's the most recent available for US at the same source, to keep…
Adding to my other comment: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jul/ai-produc... From July 30: > Since the release of ChatGPT in late 2022, artificial intelligence (AI) has been widely expected to raise…
Yeah I know I'm talking about it being training for war time anchor dragging. It's entirely clear that they cut cables and intend to cut more. It's not training, it's current aggression.
Doesn't make any sense to have merchants dragging anchor in active war. These actions are meeting their goals, not serving as preparation.
Maps, compass, and celestial navigation.
[dead]
I find it a bit weird to frame this in terms of "are programmers special". The obsession with the word "craft" is also fascinating. Anyway, this analysis is not predicated on my self worth. I just think software…
As they say in scandinavia, there's no bad weather only bad clothes. Suit up and brace yourself is all I can say. We should all be concerned in protecting our communities from the adjustment. Not in an doomerist way but…
The way I see it LLMs are accelerating trends that have been at play for a decade or two now. I think we are seeing bloat accelerating and the boom will eventually go bust. My hope is that from the ashes of the current…
I agree. There is a lot of accumulated bloat and a lot of newly accreted bloat from the tools built to accelerate on the recent trends. It seems to me that a big bust is about to follow the 15 year boom that started out…
Software development is not one thing. Some work like configuring frameworks is proving tractable to automation. But there's a lot more to software than writing glue code. We may never again have as many "software…
There is overemployment in software development right now and a correction is coming. Automation is just a part of it, because automated systems displace jobs and create new ones. The biggest problem, in my view, is…
You are focusing too much on an informal letter. There are lots - I am talking dozens - of peer-reviewed papers discussing the so-called "productivity paradox" There is a lot more to this discussion than one time series…
Thank you for checking the source. Celebrating that is more important than me being right so kudos. If we're going by anecdote I know way more people who quit caffeine than nicotine.
I'm sorry I don't understand what you mean when you discriminate productivity growth from productivity improvement. > So what is astounding is that the effects of the AI revolution may be visible in national-level…
> rather than just extra addictive extra effective caffeine That is a severe understatement. Nicotine is consistently ranked as one of the most addictive drugs, near cocaine and heroin. Only about 6% nicotine users…
Yes. I do agree with you on > The idea that the US lost its manufacturing is not based in reality. But I disagree with your claim that people are right in being extremely dismissive of losses in US manufacturing. >>…
Ah yes "How committees invent" is a great paper that I often think about. The role of software in reproducing organizational designs is a fascinating topic. When organizations adopt ERP, or Office, or buy into the…
I might have expressed myself poorly. I do not mean to claim Dreyfus is worth reading because correct, but that he is worth reading despite wrong. I do object to calling his writing "laughable". Thank you for the…
Ok thank you for finding more up-to-date data for US manufacturing GDP. Let's re-do the analysis with 2025 data, because I draw the line at using annualized data for a year that has not yet ended. World total: 17.6…
Considering the amount of literature I have found and read on this topic so far, I am deeply skeptical of any 3 point dismissal such as your own. I said elsewhere, I don't have any beliefs about this problem, I am…
> Famously he declared chess would never surpass human expert play. He wrote a book called "What Computers Can't Do" and another called "What Computer's Still Can't Do". He never made such a claim. In the introduction…
> You’re using numbers from five years ago Four. 2021 vs 2025. Unless you have numbers from 2026 from the future. > and you’re going to hassle me about not having accurate figures? Merely pointing out. The subjective…
Writing had been invented three thousand years before Socrates The passage criticizing the "invention of writing" is a quote for a legend where a Pharaoh passes negative judgement, to a god by the way, who had invented…
No, it wasn't. This often made claim is based on a passage of Phaedrus where Socrates is quoting an Egyptian legend, and the negative judgement of the invention of writing is done by a pharaoh inside that legend being…
> And they were right. American manufacturing is $3 trillion/year, second only to China, and 1/5th of the entire world. Values are 2021 because that's the most recent available for US at the same source, to keep…
Adding to my other comment: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jul/ai-produc... From July 30: > Since the release of ChatGPT in late 2022, artificial intelligence (AI) has been widely expected to raise…