I agree that moderate amounts of exercise are not helpful in losing weight at all. I fluctuate all year between 73kg and 80kg (with a brief stint at 84kg the other year while I wasn't doing any cardio for 6mo and eating way too much takeaway).

In school I used to go to the gym every day for 45mins at lunch, and box 5/6hrs a week, from 14y/o. The last 3/4yrs I climbed 3/4x a week and the last 2 of those I also ran 3/4x a week up to ~40km/wk, albeit inconsistently around my 9-5 and part time uni course.

Every time I cut out one of the sports I enjoy, I am drastically less hungry. Yes, a 5km run might burn ~300cals, but if I'm so hungry I eat a whole extra meal, I'm generally more likely to gain weight. Same for lifting weights, but even moreso - if I go and hit a 200kg deadlift PR I'm going to be hungry the next day, but that 1-2hr gym session maybe burned 100 calories at most. Exercise for weight loss is only useful if "calories in" stays the exact same, and even then it would be way less effort to reduce "calories in" and not exercise (if weight loss is the only goal).

The point at which this stops applying is excessive cardio, ie running 40km+ in a week. That will pretty much always result in a caloric deficit for me, because at that point I'm forcing myself to eat enough food to recover (rather than having to force myself not to overeat). Most people exercising to lose weight (rather than for enjoyment, to push themselves/prove something, or to win a race) don't want to exercise. If you have to commit 6hrs a week to cardio to see any effect, 99% of people aren't interested, so I'd imagine they fit into the "not excessive" category where exercise might make them want to eat disproportionately more than they burned.

Controlling "calories in" (which will guarantee weight loss, as far as the laws of physics are concerned) is always going to be the easiest path to weight loss.