joolze

"Got that? If so, you’re doing better than the author. Here’s the problem: if the probability of exposure is accumulating over time then why does it start going down? You can’t make a conspiracy secret again! The increase each year should fall toward 0 as the population dies off, leaving the plots to trail off as flat lines."

When one person is talking about a PDF and one person is talking about a CDF we all look like idiots...

And why is this narky nelly not actually showing us the goods; what is, apparently, a one line calculus error?

edit: reading his tweets he claims that eqn 3 is "derived" improperly and has a "calculus" error... when eqn 3 is just a combination of eqns 1 and 2, there is absolutely no calculus involved. Later on he goes to state that eqn 1 is the problem -- this is a theoretical concern, not a calculus one.

edit2: "Several statisticians who I spoke to or who checked the paper independently agree." ... as far as I can tell this tran...