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joshuafkon

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  1. Show HN: The Forecaster Test- based on Tetlock's superforecasting research (forecaster-test.com)

    In Tetlock's 20-year Expert Political Judgment study, domain experts performed no better in their own field than outside it — and "hedgehog" specialists actually did worse when predicting within their specialty. The…

    1 points 0
  2. Show HN: Debugging conflicting U.S. sexual behavior surveys (osf.io)

    I'm the author of a new preprint that tries to resolve why major U.S. sexual behavior surveys appeared to report contradictory trends over the past decade. The key move is separating never-occurrence from temporary…

    2 points 0
  3. Show HN: Can you hit replacement? A fertility SIM with cited sources (tfrsim.com)

    America's TFR is 1.67. I wanted to understand what it would actually take to get back to replacement (2.1), so I built a simulator where you can stack policies and see the projected effects. Every policy has cited…

    4 points 1
  4. 1 points 0
  5. How to Detect Bad Studies – With a Widely Reported Misleading Study on Dementia (joshmisc.substack.com)
    2 points 0
  6. I'm Too Risk-Averse for Index Investing (paranoidvalueinvestor.substack.com)
    174 points 285
  7. US Pacific Command to Build Anti-China Missile Network on First Island Chain (asia.nikkei.com)
    9 points 2
  8. An Economist's Theory That Shifting Demographics Means Inflation Is Here to Stay (wsj.com)
    19 points 5
  9. You *Should* Be Worried About the Coronavirus (cassandracapital.net)
    1 points 0
  10. So It’s a Pandemic – How Bad Could It Be? (medium.com)
    4 points 0
  11. Coronavirus – The Outlook Has Worsened (cassandracapital.net)
    49 points 33
  12. Near Perfect Variance Suggests China's Infected Numbers Are Fake (barrons.com)
    2 points 1
  13. Coronavirus – The Status of the Outbreak and 4 Possible Scenarios (cassandracapital.net)
    68 points 45
  14. The Unprecedented Demographic Boom and Bust (medium.com)
    1 points 0
  15. The World Is Not Going to Meet the Necessary Emission Reductions (medium.com)
    8 points 1
  16. An In-Depth Look at the US Budget and Accounting Tricks Understating the Deficit (cassandracapital.net)
    1 points 0
  17. German Banks Start Passing on Negative Interest Rates to Retail Clients (bloomberg.com)
    3 points 0
  18. Global debt surges to highest level in peacetime (ft.com)
    3 points 1
  19. Worse than Japan: how China’s looming demographic crisis will doom its economics (scmp.com)
    1 points 0
  20. The (Adjusted for PPP) Scale of China's Military Buildup (cassandracapital.net)
    1 points 0
  21. Why the Federal Reserve is pouring money into the financial system (ft.com)
    157 points 109
  22. Japan’s Debt Is Unsustainable – Why Is Betting Against It the Widow-Maker Trade? (cassandracapital.net)
    3 points 0
  23. Protests and US trade war no longer China’s top priorities -pork prices dominate (scmp.com)
    2 points 1
  24. China’s middle-class growing increasingly anxious as prices rise and yuan drops (scmp.com)
    31 points 1
  25. China ‘exaggerated’ GDP data by 2 percentage points for at least nine years (scmp.com)
    7 points 0