I think Musk sucks, as a person and political activist, and also that Grok is a terrible LLM which only gets lumped in with the leading labs because of the enormous quantity of compute behind it. But I still want to…
I feel like "relatively" is doing a lot of work, there: at about $4k per GB10, that's $36k for a 1TB cluster. Cheap compared to equivalent H200's, but out of reach for home labs that aren't funded with OpenAI or…
In the dark ages of machine learning, researchers tried to fit natural language into a defined, human-curated taxonomy. It kinda worked, for a reasonable amount of stuff; but failed quite a lot of the time, and there's…
If this becomes cheap and widespread, there'll likely be an initial iatrogenic spike, of course--but how could you think that having an enormous amount of precise, quantifiable data about a lot of bodies, and the…
Today, you keep seeing "sovereign" LMs that are subject to the sovereignty of some human-led state. Tomorrow, the "sovereign" LMs will be called that for a completely different reason.
> fear of pick pocketing may reduce the degree to which people carry around and spend money with vendors. Yes, that's why I specified an unattended wallet. I agree that direct monetary loss is not the total harm to the…
I don't think he meant "show the actual data," I think he meant "what leaked? My name, address, phone number, email, medical records, payment history, bank account number?" We get a "your private data is now public"…
Some theft is efficient. If a hypothetical thief grabs a few bills from an unattended wallet, and the wallet's owner wasn't counting on having a specific amount of money available soon after, the amount lost by the…
You're correct that, generally speaking, policy debates should not appear one-sided (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PeSzc9JTBxhaYRp9b/policy-deb...). We should put very little prior weight on the hypothesis that one…
Ted Chiang is a great SF author, but it's bizarre how much foggier and more obfuscated his thoughts about thinking machines got, once those machines became real. Same with several other SF authors.
I'm willing to buy the idea that most fund managers have the lattitude to give SpaceX the standard seasoning period, instead of buying in right when they hit the index. Which funds will do that? If it's all or most of…
And for a dev, that's essential professional ethics, and good personal pride as a craftsman. However, from an operations perspective, a dev is a piece of the qa pipeline with a nonzero error rate, and an optimal…
When "guess with some magic" can solve long-standing problems in mathematics that no human had been able to, it seems fair to ask whether it's approaching risky levels of intelligence.
This is not a contradiction; it's an augmentation. As an operations guy, I can tell you that well-constructed automation to reduce the amount of manual checking a human has to do almost always increases the quality of…
If you want to talk about ends, you're talking Axiology, not strictly Ethics. By "ceteris paribus correct," I mean that if you were programming a superintelligent AI--and you knew exactly what you were doing, rather…
Neither Deontology, Virtue Ethics, nor Consequentialism describe the ends; only the tradeoffs. You could have a deontological commitment to never giving a sucker an even break. You could have a virtue ethicist who…
The death toll per heat wave can easily hit 5 figures in just france. A hybrid portable-minisplit that will cool a 100m^2 apartment is under a thousand euros, and draw just under a Mwh per year. A portable to cool one…
If power is so cheap mid-day, why don't european buildings have sufficient air conditioning not to kill the elderly during heat waves? The laws restricting AC all have power conservation as their rationale.
Are you sure they're not the same thing? I'm quite certain I've heard people talk about "beef curtains."
What about your rouladen? Articulated steel blinds block quite a lot of light, don't they?
Should be able to use the local LLM to generate a short "They Live" style phrase based on the content of the ad.
The other scary part is when they have a fantastic negotiating position; because all of commerce depends on their continuing to work, and they can easily coordinate with each other because they're mostly copied from the…
A wise man once noted that the word "amusement" has the same structure as "deforestation." (@stevenkaas on twitter).
"Did the vehicle just crash" has a short feedback loop, very amenable to RL. "Did this product strategy tank our earnings/reputation/compliance/etc" can have a much longer, harder to RL feedback loop. But maybe not that…
One bad possibility is that AI & robotics advance to the point where they can do every job better and more cheaply than humans; and then humans are no longer employable and all die if they have insufficient capital to…
I think Musk sucks, as a person and political activist, and also that Grok is a terrible LLM which only gets lumped in with the leading labs because of the enormous quantity of compute behind it. But I still want to…
I feel like "relatively" is doing a lot of work, there: at about $4k per GB10, that's $36k for a 1TB cluster. Cheap compared to equivalent H200's, but out of reach for home labs that aren't funded with OpenAI or…
In the dark ages of machine learning, researchers tried to fit natural language into a defined, human-curated taxonomy. It kinda worked, for a reasonable amount of stuff; but failed quite a lot of the time, and there's…
If this becomes cheap and widespread, there'll likely be an initial iatrogenic spike, of course--but how could you think that having an enormous amount of precise, quantifiable data about a lot of bodies, and the…
Today, you keep seeing "sovereign" LMs that are subject to the sovereignty of some human-led state. Tomorrow, the "sovereign" LMs will be called that for a completely different reason.
> fear of pick pocketing may reduce the degree to which people carry around and spend money with vendors. Yes, that's why I specified an unattended wallet. I agree that direct monetary loss is not the total harm to the…
I don't think he meant "show the actual data," I think he meant "what leaked? My name, address, phone number, email, medical records, payment history, bank account number?" We get a "your private data is now public"…
Some theft is efficient. If a hypothetical thief grabs a few bills from an unattended wallet, and the wallet's owner wasn't counting on having a specific amount of money available soon after, the amount lost by the…
You're correct that, generally speaking, policy debates should not appear one-sided (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PeSzc9JTBxhaYRp9b/policy-deb...). We should put very little prior weight on the hypothesis that one…
Ted Chiang is a great SF author, but it's bizarre how much foggier and more obfuscated his thoughts about thinking machines got, once those machines became real. Same with several other SF authors.
I'm willing to buy the idea that most fund managers have the lattitude to give SpaceX the standard seasoning period, instead of buying in right when they hit the index. Which funds will do that? If it's all or most of…
And for a dev, that's essential professional ethics, and good personal pride as a craftsman. However, from an operations perspective, a dev is a piece of the qa pipeline with a nonzero error rate, and an optimal…
When "guess with some magic" can solve long-standing problems in mathematics that no human had been able to, it seems fair to ask whether it's approaching risky levels of intelligence.
This is not a contradiction; it's an augmentation. As an operations guy, I can tell you that well-constructed automation to reduce the amount of manual checking a human has to do almost always increases the quality of…
If you want to talk about ends, you're talking Axiology, not strictly Ethics. By "ceteris paribus correct," I mean that if you were programming a superintelligent AI--and you knew exactly what you were doing, rather…
Neither Deontology, Virtue Ethics, nor Consequentialism describe the ends; only the tradeoffs. You could have a deontological commitment to never giving a sucker an even break. You could have a virtue ethicist who…
The death toll per heat wave can easily hit 5 figures in just france. A hybrid portable-minisplit that will cool a 100m^2 apartment is under a thousand euros, and draw just under a Mwh per year. A portable to cool one…
If power is so cheap mid-day, why don't european buildings have sufficient air conditioning not to kill the elderly during heat waves? The laws restricting AC all have power conservation as their rationale.
Are you sure they're not the same thing? I'm quite certain I've heard people talk about "beef curtains."
What about your rouladen? Articulated steel blinds block quite a lot of light, don't they?
Should be able to use the local LLM to generate a short "They Live" style phrase based on the content of the ad.
The other scary part is when they have a fantastic negotiating position; because all of commerce depends on their continuing to work, and they can easily coordinate with each other because they're mostly copied from the…
A wise man once noted that the word "amusement" has the same structure as "deforestation." (@stevenkaas on twitter).
"Did the vehicle just crash" has a short feedback loop, very amenable to RL. "Did this product strategy tank our earnings/reputation/compliance/etc" can have a much longer, harder to RL feedback loop. But maybe not that…
One bad possibility is that AI & robotics advance to the point where they can do every job better and more cheaply than humans; and then humans are no longer employable and all die if they have insufficient capital to…