When I was in a large org, it was a common failure that a manager would come in from a smaller firm - and assume that our design practices etc. were meaningless overhead. Inevitably they'd try to do a "rapid prototype"…
I think the theory is that they can expand the infrastructure enough that conventional fiber etc. stops being competitive.
if super chargers were always within 5 minutes, located around desirable locations to spend an hour, did not charge idle fees, and everyone had 30 minutes of free stuff to do at these locations... then it might just…
This math is bad and shouldn't be used as a justification. It presumes that every charger is always available, that variable battery conditions and traffic conditions make reaching that charger every time, and that…
the counter point is that building or selecting the specialized model may cost as much as the lifetime inference costs of the task with the specialized model. If I need to pay someone 300k to make the model and…
remote inference should be sufficient for most robotics applications with potentially a small model for safety critical actions running locally. Unless you are in military robotics or automotive of course :)
The Niche model story is still fairly week. Evidence points to general models being equally capable to niche models at a more attractive capex (risk is spread across multiple verticals rather than concentrated in a…
I suspect the concern is that model serving is a stateless “simple” problem. As yet, no one has identified a reliable moat in inference. If the moat is performance, then prices will collapse. Unlike traditional cloud…
If I understand correctly, there are more people employed in manufacturing today than there were a century ago. The hollowing of western manufacturing due to policy choices created a false perception that the sector was…
it's a common missconception that engineers spend most of their time producing code based on documented requirements in jira tickets. I'd believe that a complete automation of this aspect of our industry would only be…
Context is more available locally. You can have the LLM operate for arbitrarily long periods, use your credentials to access services (if desired), store memory locally etc. Whether such a model exists or not is a…
The s curve won’t inflect until it becomes difficult to allocate additional resources due to economic limitations. There is no sign that training a model on 10x the compute won’t lead to at least an equivalent…
This just looks like a capex problem. There is no evidence that Anthropic has secret sauce above and beyond access to capital. If there is secret sauce, it's unclear that it changes the required amount of capital by all…
bear in mind, elon musk now has the wealth of 10k "100 millionaires" - we truly lack comprehension of how wealthy the wealthy have gotten.
I really think the environmental movements were a red herring. It was always impossible to make a meaningful dent in your personal emissions while still existing in your location. There was never any reduction proposal…
This is either a complete own goal by Amazon… a play to consolidate compute/model access. Will Chinese models be allowed on the market… at all? Will startups be banned from training models of equivalent capacity?
Is this the inevitable outcome of frontier labs who own their hardware? the GPUs and datacenters are the major cost. The inference and training a higher tier value proposition, if the company gets nervous that the…
Is it really "wear and tear?" or is it an evolved mechanism to keep genetic drift and natural selection alive? Alternatively, it could be an evolved mechanism to avoid genetic bottlenecks caused by highly reproductive…
Why do we think frontier model vendors are high margin?
It's quite clear that there is an effort to engineer mega financial vehicles that index tracking funds are forced to buy. The incentive to do so is massive, and there is nothing illegal about it. As a holder of index…
I can't put a 10 page narrative on how my specific motor should work into a hacker news post ;) you can also imagine the above where the goal is to have the ai exceed the performance of stock motors.
Laptops/desktops are cheaper per flop than any datacenter hardware by a good order of magnitude. The problem is that expectations rise in datacenters, hardware/power/security/availability guarantees cost real money.…
I actually can’t wait for the future where I upgrade hardware in order to upgrade my ai as an alternative to an expensive subscription. There are many problems I want to work on which require billions of tokens. These…
Taste, architecture, new innovations. These are all streams of tokens which are subject to the same scaling laws as code, language, and basic classification. We are going to see a new generation of models which…
They are likely also starting to realize that the end result of their anthropic contract is that nobody but anthropic knows how to run their business. Why would anthropic not treat their business like a utility in the…
When I was in a large org, it was a common failure that a manager would come in from a smaller firm - and assume that our design practices etc. were meaningless overhead. Inevitably they'd try to do a "rapid prototype"…
I think the theory is that they can expand the infrastructure enough that conventional fiber etc. stops being competitive.
if super chargers were always within 5 minutes, located around desirable locations to spend an hour, did not charge idle fees, and everyone had 30 minutes of free stuff to do at these locations... then it might just…
This math is bad and shouldn't be used as a justification. It presumes that every charger is always available, that variable battery conditions and traffic conditions make reaching that charger every time, and that…
the counter point is that building or selecting the specialized model may cost as much as the lifetime inference costs of the task with the specialized model. If I need to pay someone 300k to make the model and…
remote inference should be sufficient for most robotics applications with potentially a small model for safety critical actions running locally. Unless you are in military robotics or automotive of course :)
The Niche model story is still fairly week. Evidence points to general models being equally capable to niche models at a more attractive capex (risk is spread across multiple verticals rather than concentrated in a…
I suspect the concern is that model serving is a stateless “simple” problem. As yet, no one has identified a reliable moat in inference. If the moat is performance, then prices will collapse. Unlike traditional cloud…
If I understand correctly, there are more people employed in manufacturing today than there were a century ago. The hollowing of western manufacturing due to policy choices created a false perception that the sector was…
it's a common missconception that engineers spend most of their time producing code based on documented requirements in jira tickets. I'd believe that a complete automation of this aspect of our industry would only be…
Context is more available locally. You can have the LLM operate for arbitrarily long periods, use your credentials to access services (if desired), store memory locally etc. Whether such a model exists or not is a…
The s curve won’t inflect until it becomes difficult to allocate additional resources due to economic limitations. There is no sign that training a model on 10x the compute won’t lead to at least an equivalent…
This just looks like a capex problem. There is no evidence that Anthropic has secret sauce above and beyond access to capital. If there is secret sauce, it's unclear that it changes the required amount of capital by all…
bear in mind, elon musk now has the wealth of 10k "100 millionaires" - we truly lack comprehension of how wealthy the wealthy have gotten.
I really think the environmental movements were a red herring. It was always impossible to make a meaningful dent in your personal emissions while still existing in your location. There was never any reduction proposal…
This is either a complete own goal by Amazon… a play to consolidate compute/model access. Will Chinese models be allowed on the market… at all? Will startups be banned from training models of equivalent capacity?
Is this the inevitable outcome of frontier labs who own their hardware? the GPUs and datacenters are the major cost. The inference and training a higher tier value proposition, if the company gets nervous that the…
Is it really "wear and tear?" or is it an evolved mechanism to keep genetic drift and natural selection alive? Alternatively, it could be an evolved mechanism to avoid genetic bottlenecks caused by highly reproductive…
Why do we think frontier model vendors are high margin?
It's quite clear that there is an effort to engineer mega financial vehicles that index tracking funds are forced to buy. The incentive to do so is massive, and there is nothing illegal about it. As a holder of index…
I can't put a 10 page narrative on how my specific motor should work into a hacker news post ;) you can also imagine the above where the goal is to have the ai exceed the performance of stock motors.
Laptops/desktops are cheaper per flop than any datacenter hardware by a good order of magnitude. The problem is that expectations rise in datacenters, hardware/power/security/availability guarantees cost real money.…
I actually can’t wait for the future where I upgrade hardware in order to upgrade my ai as an alternative to an expensive subscription. There are many problems I want to work on which require billions of tokens. These…
Taste, architecture, new innovations. These are all streams of tokens which are subject to the same scaling laws as code, language, and basic classification. We are going to see a new generation of models which…
They are likely also starting to realize that the end result of their anthropic contract is that nobody but anthropic knows how to run their business. Why would anthropic not treat their business like a utility in the…