It's very hard for me to understand the frame a mind of the author of an article like this. I can't understand people seeing Anthropic's revenue go from $9B to $30B from January to April and seeing GPT 5.6(?) solve a…
This assumes that demand is elastic and unbounded. It might be true that there's a lot of untapped demand for software, but especially considering individual firms, it's plausible that demand for their offerings might…
Nope, Railway was the company who was hosting PocketOS, which is the company that blamed Cursor for deleting their prod database. Railway is only involved insofar as their API allowed an instant delete of the prod…
I don't want to be a manager, but I also don't want to be a technician (for the most part). I want to be an engineer, which means my job is to solve problems. LLMs help me solve problems faster, so I use them. Sometimes…
> If a human driver commits vehicular manslaughter, they get the book. I wish this were true. Often they get off with a light punishment, or no punishment at all.
The token prices being high for Opus undermines your argument, because it shows people are willing to pay more for the model. The thing is the new OpenAI/Anthropic models are noticeably better than open source. Open…
One hidden premise of this is "AI tools are not useful now, even if they might be in the future." For example: > Few are useful to me as they are now. Except current AI tools are extremely useful and I think you're…
Sure one of the companies paying for Linux desktop development is influencing what software gets development. Doesn't sound very nefarious to me. Red Hat, Canonical, etc. want a working and friendly Linux desktop as…
I've used Wayland (via sway) for multiple years including on machines with a 1060 and 5080 (mainly for good fractional scaling support). The only major issues I've had with it have to do with XWayland apps. I think…
You can say that, and I might even agree, but many smart people disagree. Could you explain why you believe that? Have you read in detail the arguments of people who disagree with you?
Sure some of them maybe, but given that many concerned people think the chance of extinction is 10% or higher, it's not really low probability enough to be considered a Pascal's Wager.
I really don't think that very many people are concerned about AI because of Roko's Basilisk; that's more of a meme.
If you have not heard of one person worried about AIs taking over humanity, you're really not paying attention. Geoff Hinton has been warning about that since he quit Google in 2019. Yoshua Bengio has talked about it,…
I think by most objective measures the size and power of large organizations has increased since WWII. For example, the size and scope of Western governments, consolidation in many industries, the portion of the stock…
> a zero-sum game I don't see any reference to the game being zero-sum in Tao's words. > Since when do these uncontrollable intangibles exhibit a genuine agency of their own? I don't think Tao is saying the…
I genuinely think things have changed with Lurie as mayor and 6 growsf endorsed people on the board.
I find GPT-5's story significantly better than text-davinci-001
If AI that can fully replace humans is 25 years off, preparing society for its impacts is still one of the most important things to ensure that my children (which I have not had yet) live a prosperous and fulfilling…
Here's a thoughtful post related to your lump of labor point: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TkWCKzWjcbfGzdNK5/applying-t... What economists have taken seriously the premise that AI will be able to do any job a human…
LLMs with instruction following have been around for 3 years. Your comment gives me "electricity and gas engines will never replace the horse" vibes. Everyone agrees AI has not radically transformed the world yet. The…
Sonnet with extended thinking solved it after 30s for me: https://claude.ai/share/b974bd96-91f4-4d92-9aa8-7bad964e9c5a Normal Opus solved it: https://claude.ai/share/a1845cc3-bb5f-4875-b78b-ee7440dbf764 Opus with…
1. These models are trained with significant amounts of RL. So I would argue there's not a static "training dataset"; the model's outputs at each stage of the training process feeds back into the released models…
The comment was likely that there's no explicit search. In o1, the model has learned how to search using its context. Presumably they do this by RLing over long reasoning strings/internal monologues.
There's a few things there that could be going on that seem more likely than "hardcoded". 1. The part of the network that does complex math and the part that write poetry are overlapping in strange ways. 2. Most of the…
My understanding is that it's in vogue to use deep learning for complex control problems, and the results are fairly impressive. The idea is to train robotic motion end to end with RL. Not an expert so I don't know the…
It's very hard for me to understand the frame a mind of the author of an article like this. I can't understand people seeing Anthropic's revenue go from $9B to $30B from January to April and seeing GPT 5.6(?) solve a…
This assumes that demand is elastic and unbounded. It might be true that there's a lot of untapped demand for software, but especially considering individual firms, it's plausible that demand for their offerings might…
Nope, Railway was the company who was hosting PocketOS, which is the company that blamed Cursor for deleting their prod database. Railway is only involved insofar as their API allowed an instant delete of the prod…
I don't want to be a manager, but I also don't want to be a technician (for the most part). I want to be an engineer, which means my job is to solve problems. LLMs help me solve problems faster, so I use them. Sometimes…
> If a human driver commits vehicular manslaughter, they get the book. I wish this were true. Often they get off with a light punishment, or no punishment at all.
The token prices being high for Opus undermines your argument, because it shows people are willing to pay more for the model. The thing is the new OpenAI/Anthropic models are noticeably better than open source. Open…
One hidden premise of this is "AI tools are not useful now, even if they might be in the future." For example: > Few are useful to me as they are now. Except current AI tools are extremely useful and I think you're…
Sure one of the companies paying for Linux desktop development is influencing what software gets development. Doesn't sound very nefarious to me. Red Hat, Canonical, etc. want a working and friendly Linux desktop as…
I've used Wayland (via sway) for multiple years including on machines with a 1060 and 5080 (mainly for good fractional scaling support). The only major issues I've had with it have to do with XWayland apps. I think…
You can say that, and I might even agree, but many smart people disagree. Could you explain why you believe that? Have you read in detail the arguments of people who disagree with you?
Sure some of them maybe, but given that many concerned people think the chance of extinction is 10% or higher, it's not really low probability enough to be considered a Pascal's Wager.
I really don't think that very many people are concerned about AI because of Roko's Basilisk; that's more of a meme.
If you have not heard of one person worried about AIs taking over humanity, you're really not paying attention. Geoff Hinton has been warning about that since he quit Google in 2019. Yoshua Bengio has talked about it,…
I think by most objective measures the size and power of large organizations has increased since WWII. For example, the size and scope of Western governments, consolidation in many industries, the portion of the stock…
> a zero-sum game I don't see any reference to the game being zero-sum in Tao's words. > Since when do these uncontrollable intangibles exhibit a genuine agency of their own? I don't think Tao is saying the…
I genuinely think things have changed with Lurie as mayor and 6 growsf endorsed people on the board.
I find GPT-5's story significantly better than text-davinci-001
If AI that can fully replace humans is 25 years off, preparing society for its impacts is still one of the most important things to ensure that my children (which I have not had yet) live a prosperous and fulfilling…
Here's a thoughtful post related to your lump of labor point: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TkWCKzWjcbfGzdNK5/applying-t... What economists have taken seriously the premise that AI will be able to do any job a human…
LLMs with instruction following have been around for 3 years. Your comment gives me "electricity and gas engines will never replace the horse" vibes. Everyone agrees AI has not radically transformed the world yet. The…
Sonnet with extended thinking solved it after 30s for me: https://claude.ai/share/b974bd96-91f4-4d92-9aa8-7bad964e9c5a Normal Opus solved it: https://claude.ai/share/a1845cc3-bb5f-4875-b78b-ee7440dbf764 Opus with…
1. These models are trained with significant amounts of RL. So I would argue there's not a static "training dataset"; the model's outputs at each stage of the training process feeds back into the released models…
The comment was likely that there's no explicit search. In o1, the model has learned how to search using its context. Presumably they do this by RLing over long reasoning strings/internal monologues.
There's a few things there that could be going on that seem more likely than "hardcoded". 1. The part of the network that does complex math and the part that write poetry are overlapping in strange ways. 2. Most of the…
My understanding is that it's in vogue to use deep learning for complex control problems, and the results are fairly impressive. The idea is to train robotic motion end to end with RL. Not an expert so I don't know the…