Not exactly, if Monty randomly picked a door and happened to open a goat then it would still be beneficial for the player to swap.
Good point. That's probably also the case for surgeries on national holidays.
There is no such thing as "true probability" in Bayesian interpretation, it only exists in frequentist world. Notice that it is possible to build a robot which flips a coin in such a way that it's always heads - sure…
I wouldn't say that's the core of the paradox. The thing is that people don't have a good understanding what probability is. We think that when we choose a gate at the beginning, with a chance of winning being 1/3 it…
How about an approach where the agent's reward is not the predictability itself but the first derivative of it. This way the agent will be attracted to the parts of environment where it can improve and will avoid…
It is a common misconception that Chaos theory and Quantum Mechanics show that universe is random. Chaos theory is a perfectly deterministic theory that basically means fragility to initial conditions. Quantum…
Come on, you don't like to tinker with SharePoint Server configuration templates in your free time?
Hmm, why is it surprising that AI is good at poker? The way I see the game is that a bad poker player will just hold a model of his hand in mind. A slightly better one will also hold a model of his opponent's hand. Even…
If you enjoy reading about human biases coming from non-statistical point of view then check out "Thinking fast and slow" by Kahneman. Great read.
Not exactly, if Monty randomly picked a door and happened to open a goat then it would still be beneficial for the player to swap.
Good point. That's probably also the case for surgeries on national holidays.
There is no such thing as "true probability" in Bayesian interpretation, it only exists in frequentist world. Notice that it is possible to build a robot which flips a coin in such a way that it's always heads - sure…
I wouldn't say that's the core of the paradox. The thing is that people don't have a good understanding what probability is. We think that when we choose a gate at the beginning, with a chance of winning being 1/3 it…
How about an approach where the agent's reward is not the predictability itself but the first derivative of it. This way the agent will be attracted to the parts of environment where it can improve and will avoid…
It is a common misconception that Chaos theory and Quantum Mechanics show that universe is random. Chaos theory is a perfectly deterministic theory that basically means fragility to initial conditions. Quantum…
Come on, you don't like to tinker with SharePoint Server configuration templates in your free time?
Hmm, why is it surprising that AI is good at poker? The way I see the game is that a bad poker player will just hold a model of his hand in mind. A slightly better one will also hold a model of his opponent's hand. Even…
If you enjoy reading about human biases coming from non-statistical point of view then check out "Thinking fast and slow" by Kahneman. Great read.