I expect inflation to remain high for a while, and I think concerns about it (if not for self-fulfilling psychological, which are very real and significant) are overblown. I think this stimulus, and the resulting…
Imagine you're a business with 5 million dollars in revolving debt, at a 2% interest rate. You have $100k in debt service costs. If interest rates go up to 5%, you have $250k in service costs. Most businesses operate…
I was surprised by the quality of the Coway Airmega 200M. Good reviews, but looked sketchy: - Super-quiet - Sensor does actually speed it up with even trivial amounts of pollution. You sneeze in the same room, or spray…
As far as I can tell, COVID has two predominant modes of spread: - Extended time indoors, with high viral loads. It spreads ridiculously well with no protection (even among the vaccinated). - Isolated superspreader…
There are two theories: - We're borrowing money, and we'll need to pay it back. That's scary. - Money is bits in a computer, and from the perspective of the US government, it's like video game currency. Debts and…
> If you aren’t interested in maintaining your app annually, don’t publish apps on Apple’s store. That's exactly what I do. I avoid the app stores like the plaque. > (I am not sympathetic to your situation, because as a…
As much as I like the change, the 3-month window seems unreasonable. I don't currently have AppStore apps, and these kinds of whiplash changes are part of the reason. Microsoft, for all its faults, is much better than…
Well, modules can be designed to protect my security, or to harm my security (e.g. to enforce DRM). I'm unclear on how "real TPM" functionality helps me. If it helps secure Microsoft, and hurts my security, that's a…
Serious question: How does YC work with companies like this? It seems like a YC standard-form offer doesn't make any sense to a company like Ginko at the stage it entered YC.
Stereotype much?
Allergies. You end up with a large segment of the population who sneezes a little bit, which is sort of annoying but sort of okay. You end up with a small segment of the population with asthma attacks, anaphylaxis, and…
My impression is that there are rapidly rising and then diminishing returns on investment. Going from cloth to any mask with a high filtration layer is a huge improvement. Cloth is <30% of small particles. High…
This is incredibly true. Homes don't even need to be that small. Buying a chunk of land with enough trees to build a home is <$5k, if you're willing to live in the middle of nowhere. You need the equivalent of a Ph.D in…
I don't think this represents most studies, but the far lower end. If we're going to cherry-pick, here's one which shows more than half of kids show at least one symptom 120 days out:…
If a side effect of COVID19 were getting rid of flu and colds, I'd be very very happy. It doesn't look like it will be, but it'd be nice. I actually think all the contact tracing stuff would do it. If we had zero…
If you define "risk" as "hospitalization," that's largely true. If you define "risk" as months or years of bizarre symptoms, reduced lung capacity, brain fog, etc., then children are at risk too. But perhaps you don't…
Investment in the housing market drives up supply of buildings, and drives up the cost of the land underneath them. In high-cost markets, most of the cost is the land, not development on that land. You can waive the…
I'm not sold on the Economist article. I do believe in home ownership. The idea that a person spends a lifetime in the same home and community is a good one. We're tribal creatures, and you want a tribe -- you want…
I'm saying that there are internals problems and there are external problems. Whenever I've had mental health issues, there were clear external causes, and therapy ain't gonna do a thing about that. Therapists will tell…
No, I'm saying if you're: * in an abusive job * are going to be deported if you quit * have kids you want to keep in school ... anxiety is a natural biological response, and there isn't a magical therapy trick that will…
If the root causes is: - Financial constraints - A harasser - A medical problem - Etc. a therapist/counselor can't help you very much. Whenever I've had issues I needed help with, there were real issues behind it. A…
Quotes like this bug me: > If you find yourself in this type of situation, please do what’s best for you and get help if you are feeling stuck or overwhelmed. Get help the !@#$% where? There isn't a magic American…
You do risk jinxing it. Once people believe high level of inflation are coming, they move wealth out of fiat for other assets. That leads to inflation. And it cycles in on itself. The classical example is the Weimar…
Avoiding hyperinflation is about maintaining faith in fiat currency. Announcing inflation is a self-fulfilling prophecy. I think everyone paying any attention expected inflation, but downplaying it was exactly what the…
No, you're not diluting wealth unless you're sitting on a Scrooge McDuck pile of cash. If you have investments or property, they go up with inflation. If you're leveraged, inflation is a huge win. Inflation is a massive…
I expect inflation to remain high for a while, and I think concerns about it (if not for self-fulfilling psychological, which are very real and significant) are overblown. I think this stimulus, and the resulting…
Imagine you're a business with 5 million dollars in revolving debt, at a 2% interest rate. You have $100k in debt service costs. If interest rates go up to 5%, you have $250k in service costs. Most businesses operate…
I was surprised by the quality of the Coway Airmega 200M. Good reviews, but looked sketchy: - Super-quiet - Sensor does actually speed it up with even trivial amounts of pollution. You sneeze in the same room, or spray…
As far as I can tell, COVID has two predominant modes of spread: - Extended time indoors, with high viral loads. It spreads ridiculously well with no protection (even among the vaccinated). - Isolated superspreader…
There are two theories: - We're borrowing money, and we'll need to pay it back. That's scary. - Money is bits in a computer, and from the perspective of the US government, it's like video game currency. Debts and…
> If you aren’t interested in maintaining your app annually, don’t publish apps on Apple’s store. That's exactly what I do. I avoid the app stores like the plaque. > (I am not sympathetic to your situation, because as a…
As much as I like the change, the 3-month window seems unreasonable. I don't currently have AppStore apps, and these kinds of whiplash changes are part of the reason. Microsoft, for all its faults, is much better than…
Well, modules can be designed to protect my security, or to harm my security (e.g. to enforce DRM). I'm unclear on how "real TPM" functionality helps me. If it helps secure Microsoft, and hurts my security, that's a…
Serious question: How does YC work with companies like this? It seems like a YC standard-form offer doesn't make any sense to a company like Ginko at the stage it entered YC.
Stereotype much?
Allergies. You end up with a large segment of the population who sneezes a little bit, which is sort of annoying but sort of okay. You end up with a small segment of the population with asthma attacks, anaphylaxis, and…
My impression is that there are rapidly rising and then diminishing returns on investment. Going from cloth to any mask with a high filtration layer is a huge improvement. Cloth is <30% of small particles. High…
This is incredibly true. Homes don't even need to be that small. Buying a chunk of land with enough trees to build a home is <$5k, if you're willing to live in the middle of nowhere. You need the equivalent of a Ph.D in…
I don't think this represents most studies, but the far lower end. If we're going to cherry-pick, here's one which shows more than half of kids show at least one symptom 120 days out:…
If a side effect of COVID19 were getting rid of flu and colds, I'd be very very happy. It doesn't look like it will be, but it'd be nice. I actually think all the contact tracing stuff would do it. If we had zero…
If you define "risk" as "hospitalization," that's largely true. If you define "risk" as months or years of bizarre symptoms, reduced lung capacity, brain fog, etc., then children are at risk too. But perhaps you don't…
Investment in the housing market drives up supply of buildings, and drives up the cost of the land underneath them. In high-cost markets, most of the cost is the land, not development on that land. You can waive the…
I'm not sold on the Economist article. I do believe in home ownership. The idea that a person spends a lifetime in the same home and community is a good one. We're tribal creatures, and you want a tribe -- you want…
I'm saying that there are internals problems and there are external problems. Whenever I've had mental health issues, there were clear external causes, and therapy ain't gonna do a thing about that. Therapists will tell…
No, I'm saying if you're: * in an abusive job * are going to be deported if you quit * have kids you want to keep in school ... anxiety is a natural biological response, and there isn't a magical therapy trick that will…
If the root causes is: - Financial constraints - A harasser - A medical problem - Etc. a therapist/counselor can't help you very much. Whenever I've had issues I needed help with, there were real issues behind it. A…
Quotes like this bug me: > If you find yourself in this type of situation, please do what’s best for you and get help if you are feeling stuck or overwhelmed. Get help the !@#$% where? There isn't a magic American…
You do risk jinxing it. Once people believe high level of inflation are coming, they move wealth out of fiat for other assets. That leads to inflation. And it cycles in on itself. The classical example is the Weimar…
Avoiding hyperinflation is about maintaining faith in fiat currency. Announcing inflation is a self-fulfilling prophecy. I think everyone paying any attention expected inflation, but downplaying it was exactly what the…
No, you're not diluting wealth unless you're sitting on a Scrooge McDuck pile of cash. If you have investments or property, they go up with inflation. If you're leveraged, inflation is a huge win. Inflation is a massive…