https://theonion.com/no-way-to-prevent-this-says-only-nation... https://xeiaso.net/shitposts/no-way-to-prevent-this/memory-s...
The article starts that section with “As the Big Bang has so loudly illustrated” so I assume the author is imagining a machine that replicates the conditions of the Big Bang. Exactly how that could be constructed and…
That kind of event happens sometimes. The first reason it’s not more common is that wealth isn’t so static. Landlords have to collect rents, oligarchs have to skim off the top of their corrupt enterprises etc. A guard…
> The end of software secrecy is almost upon us. The death of closed source, and the final triumph of open source. It’s a Pyrrhic victory given the negative impacts of LLMs on open source projects. Everybody’s closed…
I think you meant to respond to bergheim not to me.
> I, too, hope that one of the two or three companies will be able to improve and displace everything. Who needs Linux anyway. In the context of browsers the domination of one or two companies is already complete, and…
Open source models: trilobites ChatGPT: Hallucigenia Claude: Haikouichthys ????: Anomalocaris Hand-written code: Ediacaran biota :(
> This kind of statement is very difficult to build discussions upon (not a criticism). "Vast majority", "intelligent enough" are both very difficult to quantify and there is too much subjectivity involved. Then let me…
I’m not an American, but here in Canada there are a lot of extra fees and such where I live as well. I don’t believe the problem is purely innumeracy on the consumer’s part. If companies clearly stated “A(B + C)” as a…
The statement that the set has 1 member is my criticism of the text, not what the text is trying to say. > given n species and the n * (n - 1) binary combinations possible, there are no examples of the said observation…
Maybe another AI could use the proof.
> OBSERVATION: There are zero examples of any intelligent species which is vastly more capable than another species, yet surrenders decision-making control over its own future to the less-capable species. Does the set…
Not everyone would actually send the prompt to an LLM. Some would have the opportunity to see the prompt as its own artifact, devoid of LLM-generated “hallucinations”. > let the votes speak for that. The comment you are…
Are you referring to the Pangram link? I’d consider that akin to a reference supporting the comment’s point, not a substitute for the comment’s point. > Most people do not, in fact, want to read raw prompts. I wonder if…
I agree that models are improving. But is the improvement truly exponential?? Are the improvements we have seen from September 2025 to September 2026 really as significant as the improvements from September 2024 to…
The comment I was replying to was complaining about appealing to the masses, emotional arguments, and compromising on certain issues to get progress on other issues. If you view a regime as fascistic, you still need to…
> It's a herding/shepherding game where the only people willing to play are compromised. This is how all politics is, and frankly the existential risk crowd needs to learn how to play the game instead of complaining…
The comparisons to anti-vax and flat earth are absurd. And what exactly is the benefit to you to having a data centre specifically in the area you live? Seems to me that far from “irrational hordes”, the protestors are…
If the causal analysis is the real value, then it could be presented without a prediction, or at least without a specific prediction. In 2024, if Ed Zitron presented all his analysis of AI companies without the specific…
> Not sure how you constructed that specific sentence from my message. Fair enough, I didn’t. > most big decisions aren't that sensitive to small timing changes That makes sense for a single year at least.
The added value other than the stock market would be in making major life decisions. In the case of the 2008 crisis, specific knowledge of the timing could matter for buying or selling a house. In the case of…
The post is titled “How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?” not “How accurate will Ed Zitron’s AI skeptic predictions be in the future?” or “Is the entire AI industry build out justified?” If Patrick…
First of all thanks for actually replying with a full list. > Claiming it's a fail for being 1 second late is not a rational position and not at all in the spirit the predictions were made. I would keep to the level of…
They’ll never get better if not held accountable.
> The prediction was early, overestimated how long of a tail RIM would experience, but how wrong was it? Was the prediction of some utility? Wrong enough that the utility is seriously diminished. Predicting a specific…
https://theonion.com/no-way-to-prevent-this-says-only-nation... https://xeiaso.net/shitposts/no-way-to-prevent-this/memory-s...
The article starts that section with “As the Big Bang has so loudly illustrated” so I assume the author is imagining a machine that replicates the conditions of the Big Bang. Exactly how that could be constructed and…
That kind of event happens sometimes. The first reason it’s not more common is that wealth isn’t so static. Landlords have to collect rents, oligarchs have to skim off the top of their corrupt enterprises etc. A guard…
> The end of software secrecy is almost upon us. The death of closed source, and the final triumph of open source. It’s a Pyrrhic victory given the negative impacts of LLMs on open source projects. Everybody’s closed…
I think you meant to respond to bergheim not to me.
> I, too, hope that one of the two or three companies will be able to improve and displace everything. Who needs Linux anyway. In the context of browsers the domination of one or two companies is already complete, and…
Open source models: trilobites ChatGPT: Hallucigenia Claude: Haikouichthys ????: Anomalocaris Hand-written code: Ediacaran biota :(
> This kind of statement is very difficult to build discussions upon (not a criticism). "Vast majority", "intelligent enough" are both very difficult to quantify and there is too much subjectivity involved. Then let me…
I’m not an American, but here in Canada there are a lot of extra fees and such where I live as well. I don’t believe the problem is purely innumeracy on the consumer’s part. If companies clearly stated “A(B + C)” as a…
The statement that the set has 1 member is my criticism of the text, not what the text is trying to say. > given n species and the n * (n - 1) binary combinations possible, there are no examples of the said observation…
Maybe another AI could use the proof.
> OBSERVATION: There are zero examples of any intelligent species which is vastly more capable than another species, yet surrenders decision-making control over its own future to the less-capable species. Does the set…
Not everyone would actually send the prompt to an LLM. Some would have the opportunity to see the prompt as its own artifact, devoid of LLM-generated “hallucinations”. > let the votes speak for that. The comment you are…
Are you referring to the Pangram link? I’d consider that akin to a reference supporting the comment’s point, not a substitute for the comment’s point. > Most people do not, in fact, want to read raw prompts. I wonder if…
I agree that models are improving. But is the improvement truly exponential?? Are the improvements we have seen from September 2025 to September 2026 really as significant as the improvements from September 2024 to…
The comment I was replying to was complaining about appealing to the masses, emotional arguments, and compromising on certain issues to get progress on other issues. If you view a regime as fascistic, you still need to…
> It's a herding/shepherding game where the only people willing to play are compromised. This is how all politics is, and frankly the existential risk crowd needs to learn how to play the game instead of complaining…
The comparisons to anti-vax and flat earth are absurd. And what exactly is the benefit to you to having a data centre specifically in the area you live? Seems to me that far from “irrational hordes”, the protestors are…
If the causal analysis is the real value, then it could be presented without a prediction, or at least without a specific prediction. In 2024, if Ed Zitron presented all his analysis of AI companies without the specific…
> Not sure how you constructed that specific sentence from my message. Fair enough, I didn’t. > most big decisions aren't that sensitive to small timing changes That makes sense for a single year at least.
The added value other than the stock market would be in making major life decisions. In the case of the 2008 crisis, specific knowledge of the timing could matter for buying or selling a house. In the case of…
The post is titled “How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?” not “How accurate will Ed Zitron’s AI skeptic predictions be in the future?” or “Is the entire AI industry build out justified?” If Patrick…
First of all thanks for actually replying with a full list. > Claiming it's a fail for being 1 second late is not a rational position and not at all in the spirit the predictions were made. I would keep to the level of…
They’ll never get better if not held accountable.
> The prediction was early, overestimated how long of a tail RIM would experience, but how wrong was it? Was the prediction of some utility? Wrong enough that the utility is seriously diminished. Predicting a specific…