Synthetic data, and then RL.
Possibly parent is thinking of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jumpstart_Our_Business_Startup... which did change some conditions, though not in terms of "multiples".
Well I think it'll grow by 70%! I'm a thought leader now, speaking fees on asking thx
MoE is a misleading term, there is no "starcraft expert". There's not even a python expert. MoE just means a subset of blocks of weights are activated per query, nothing more. In so far as they might have legible…
From my read this line of thought was alluded to by GP's ironic "promised land". A promised land for whom? Not for the vast majority of humankind. Comparisons to feudalism kind of sell the direness of the AGI vision…
I am not sure why you'd, at this late date, think Sam Altman's public statements have anything to do with anything. Time and time again demonstrated compulsive bullshitter.
Given OpenAIs recent behaviour (their models love to cheat, and they can't be bothered securing them), I would not be shocked if in a month or two it emerged that these math agents had formed a swarm coordinating on how…
You know, I don't think a total, global ban on open weights is in the US "frontier" labs interest. The best outcome for them is a zero sum game with ever increasing spend on offence and defence, while they…
> the value will tend towards infinity It may be the case that the potential output of a worker engaging in the productive process goes arbitrarily high. But the that won't matter, if they're not permitted to. Given a…
"socialising the means of production" doesn't mean "everyone gets free stuff". It simply means that the people who actually work the means of production decide how it's directed. It's simply the antithesis to…
Marx envisioned the class struggle ending with the triumph of the working class, and a subsequent dissolution of all class systems. AGI, if defined as a fully general replacement for labour, suggests a "bad ending" to…
Maybe less than we might hope. Not only is the knowledge distributed over the hundreds of people involved in designing a car, there may be conventions/habits of design and manufacture whose purpose has become hazy but…
> AI decides that energy spent toward human agriculture is less important than work spent toward storage and production of energy I mean. Don't need rogue AI for this. These are already the policies of those in charge…
The classic worry is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter: the soot thrown up by the ensuing urban fire storms causing temperatures, rainfall to plummet, and hence food production. On reading the scenarios the…
The question of whether something can be automated is distinct from the question of whether it is currently automated. Things can can be automated may transition to being automated in practice in the future as…
It should be quite easy: if they don't leak the user session data publicly, and don't commingle it with training data internally, how could it possibly end up in the training data? What surprises me is they're not more…
Agree model providers can't take much margin, a few percent plus maybe a bit extra from those willing to pay for a "better" model. Upstream is more concentrated: TSMC, NVIDIA, AMD could maybe raise prices and capture…
LLMs don't "understand bitwise noise at a native level". The unit of perception for an LLM is a token, a soundly superbit level. They would have the same difficulty with bits as the number of "r"s in "strawberry". Yes…
Gradient descent and reinforcement learning algorithms don't really look much like evolution, unless you squint so hard that everything does (ie, squinted so hard that you've closed your eyes).
They're messaging each other by jamming strings in a constrained (unauthorised) side channel. Hence the lack of spaces. Unclear how much else of the weirdness is just from those constraints
And here I at first thought the direction the original post was going was "here's how I got a LLM to do this automatically". Seems like it would not be so difficult. Might still be be a win over their innate…
My read of "manufacture a huge amount of products" was that it's not even about software. America is still the world's second largest manufacturing economy, and per capita produces more than China!…
So labour doesn't really scale. It's measured in hours, and you only get so many of those in a week. If you're using "scale your labour" to mean "scale your output". Well, two cases: your selling your labour as an…
Very convenient, if you're someone who benefits from this arrangement, to be able to tell yourself that a brute numerical fact (if you profit off others labour, there must be those whose labour is profited off of) just…
The difference might be the immense cost of physical infrastructure needed for AI training. People would make open source contributions for free, TSMC, NVIDIA and power companies seems less likely to make free…
Synthetic data, and then RL.
Possibly parent is thinking of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jumpstart_Our_Business_Startup... which did change some conditions, though not in terms of "multiples".
Well I think it'll grow by 70%! I'm a thought leader now, speaking fees on asking thx
MoE is a misleading term, there is no "starcraft expert". There's not even a python expert. MoE just means a subset of blocks of weights are activated per query, nothing more. In so far as they might have legible…
From my read this line of thought was alluded to by GP's ironic "promised land". A promised land for whom? Not for the vast majority of humankind. Comparisons to feudalism kind of sell the direness of the AGI vision…
I am not sure why you'd, at this late date, think Sam Altman's public statements have anything to do with anything. Time and time again demonstrated compulsive bullshitter.
Given OpenAIs recent behaviour (their models love to cheat, and they can't be bothered securing them), I would not be shocked if in a month or two it emerged that these math agents had formed a swarm coordinating on how…
You know, I don't think a total, global ban on open weights is in the US "frontier" labs interest. The best outcome for them is a zero sum game with ever increasing spend on offence and defence, while they…
> the value will tend towards infinity It may be the case that the potential output of a worker engaging in the productive process goes arbitrarily high. But the that won't matter, if they're not permitted to. Given a…
"socialising the means of production" doesn't mean "everyone gets free stuff". It simply means that the people who actually work the means of production decide how it's directed. It's simply the antithesis to…
Marx envisioned the class struggle ending with the triumph of the working class, and a subsequent dissolution of all class systems. AGI, if defined as a fully general replacement for labour, suggests a "bad ending" to…
Maybe less than we might hope. Not only is the knowledge distributed over the hundreds of people involved in designing a car, there may be conventions/habits of design and manufacture whose purpose has become hazy but…
> AI decides that energy spent toward human agriculture is less important than work spent toward storage and production of energy I mean. Don't need rogue AI for this. These are already the policies of those in charge…
The classic worry is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter: the soot thrown up by the ensuing urban fire storms causing temperatures, rainfall to plummet, and hence food production. On reading the scenarios the…
The question of whether something can be automated is distinct from the question of whether it is currently automated. Things can can be automated may transition to being automated in practice in the future as…
It should be quite easy: if they don't leak the user session data publicly, and don't commingle it with training data internally, how could it possibly end up in the training data? What surprises me is they're not more…
Agree model providers can't take much margin, a few percent plus maybe a bit extra from those willing to pay for a "better" model. Upstream is more concentrated: TSMC, NVIDIA, AMD could maybe raise prices and capture…
LLMs don't "understand bitwise noise at a native level". The unit of perception for an LLM is a token, a soundly superbit level. They would have the same difficulty with bits as the number of "r"s in "strawberry". Yes…
Gradient descent and reinforcement learning algorithms don't really look much like evolution, unless you squint so hard that everything does (ie, squinted so hard that you've closed your eyes).
They're messaging each other by jamming strings in a constrained (unauthorised) side channel. Hence the lack of spaces. Unclear how much else of the weirdness is just from those constraints
And here I at first thought the direction the original post was going was "here's how I got a LLM to do this automatically". Seems like it would not be so difficult. Might still be be a win over their innate…
My read of "manufacture a huge amount of products" was that it's not even about software. America is still the world's second largest manufacturing economy, and per capita produces more than China!…
So labour doesn't really scale. It's measured in hours, and you only get so many of those in a week. If you're using "scale your labour" to mean "scale your output". Well, two cases: your selling your labour as an…
Very convenient, if you're someone who benefits from this arrangement, to be able to tell yourself that a brute numerical fact (if you profit off others labour, there must be those whose labour is profited off of) just…
The difference might be the immense cost of physical infrastructure needed for AI training. People would make open source contributions for free, TSMC, NVIDIA and power companies seems less likely to make free…