nice chat. if this is indeed the beginning of a global tightening regime (i doubt it) it will be a fun time as an active participant as long as one has an open mind. i'm ultra excited for the opportunity in front of us…
We agree China is more toxic & japans central banking interventions are indeed transparent. Hell the economists in charge of the policy even seem proud of the strategy & convicted in its outcome even though they've been…
All it took was quantitative easing since 2001 resulting in ownership of 40-50% of the entire japanese bond market (which isn't really a market any more because some days 0 transactions take place due to the complete…
they don't ring a bell at the top. i reiterate this is the largest & most systemic of all bubbles of all time.
LOL, no CEO's in the modern era aren't interested in buying assets or growing revenues organically. They are interested in juicing EPS from quarter to quarter. That's why 2018 is already set to be the largest in record…
Every single risk asset. Bonds (lowest yields in recorded history including negative sovereigns in europe), stocks (price-to-sales, price-to-ebidta, & countless other measures), art, housing prices back at nominal pre…
I can't see shorting it outright without being wheeled out on a stretcher. Options will be the best play to safely express a bearish position with asymmetric risk/reward assuming they aren't priced to insanely due to…
+1. It's laughable. Segregated accounts, position limits, circuit breakers, margin limits, spreads across duration to reduce risk, etc are all GOOD things. The counter party risk in the exchanges right now is HUGE in…
Also the CME & CBOE bitcoin contracts like many other futures commodities allow "spread" trading across duration. This has a dampening affect as well. In a lot of commodities spread trading volume exceeds that of the…
I wonder how much prior boom times have an impact on farmers because prices on the crops have just languished for years now. 2008 had very aggressive price appreciation in corn & beans. Same can be said for late 2010,…
Sanctions have always been a pretty good indicator of war when levied from one sovereign to another. That indicator has probably gone from flashing yellow to red recently.
It's scary what QE did. Inflated the largest stock market bubble & bond market bubble at the same time. While most portfolios are split across them for diversity. It's more likely they both get crushed unless of course…
The best place to put your money is typically where nobody else wants to put theirs. IMO nobody wants cash today. They want anything except cash no matter how risky. Stocks at highest valuations ever, BTC (unregulated),…
Historically the 2 term presidential cycle where an incumbent is elected has led to a recession within 6-18 months 100% of the time. I guess this time could be different & a recession doesn't imply a crash but that's an…
None of us can know since it would require seeing into the future & bitcoin has no historical precedence of trading during a recession. My hunch is it gets absolutely slaughtered. It's a guage of risk seeking appetite…
Sort of, it's not an issue until becomes one. They way out historically is run away inflation, aggressive taxation, war, and/or violent societal reorg. These all really suck compared to just living within your means…
The historical pattern is each time an economic downturn occurs they use more aggressive interventionism. The next time is different? No. The "economists" you're talking about don't matter. They have no voting power…
Forgot to cite my earlier comments. > Wages have stagnated & only recently picked up[1] > GDP has been the lowest post-recovery ever[2][6] > Net household debt is again at new highs[3] > Interest rates at forever in the…
More than $4.5T in bonds bought in multiple policy regimes over years and have been halted for sometime but we can't use that as a benchmark? I suspect it has something to do with not aligning with your narrative. How…
Economists perhaps but central bank governors don't feel they've hit any sort of limit. They all say over & over they remain "prepared" to "respond" & have an array of "tools" at their disposal. Not to mention some of…
It's stunning that anyone who has witnessed per asset class appreciation (consider wages an asset class as well) since the GFC could believe what you said. Inflation obviously helps those in debt but QE didn't inflate…
nice chat. if this is indeed the beginning of a global tightening regime (i doubt it) it will be a fun time as an active participant as long as one has an open mind. i'm ultra excited for the opportunity in front of us…
We agree China is more toxic & japans central banking interventions are indeed transparent. Hell the economists in charge of the policy even seem proud of the strategy & convicted in its outcome even though they've been…
All it took was quantitative easing since 2001 resulting in ownership of 40-50% of the entire japanese bond market (which isn't really a market any more because some days 0 transactions take place due to the complete…
they don't ring a bell at the top. i reiterate this is the largest & most systemic of all bubbles of all time.
LOL, no CEO's in the modern era aren't interested in buying assets or growing revenues organically. They are interested in juicing EPS from quarter to quarter. That's why 2018 is already set to be the largest in record…
Every single risk asset. Bonds (lowest yields in recorded history including negative sovereigns in europe), stocks (price-to-sales, price-to-ebidta, & countless other measures), art, housing prices back at nominal pre…
I can't see shorting it outright without being wheeled out on a stretcher. Options will be the best play to safely express a bearish position with asymmetric risk/reward assuming they aren't priced to insanely due to…
+1. It's laughable. Segregated accounts, position limits, circuit breakers, margin limits, spreads across duration to reduce risk, etc are all GOOD things. The counter party risk in the exchanges right now is HUGE in…
Also the CME & CBOE bitcoin contracts like many other futures commodities allow "spread" trading across duration. This has a dampening affect as well. In a lot of commodities spread trading volume exceeds that of the…
I wonder how much prior boom times have an impact on farmers because prices on the crops have just languished for years now. 2008 had very aggressive price appreciation in corn & beans. Same can be said for late 2010,…
Sanctions have always been a pretty good indicator of war when levied from one sovereign to another. That indicator has probably gone from flashing yellow to red recently.
It's scary what QE did. Inflated the largest stock market bubble & bond market bubble at the same time. While most portfolios are split across them for diversity. It's more likely they both get crushed unless of course…
The best place to put your money is typically where nobody else wants to put theirs. IMO nobody wants cash today. They want anything except cash no matter how risky. Stocks at highest valuations ever, BTC (unregulated),…
Historically the 2 term presidential cycle where an incumbent is elected has led to a recession within 6-18 months 100% of the time. I guess this time could be different & a recession doesn't imply a crash but that's an…
None of us can know since it would require seeing into the future & bitcoin has no historical precedence of trading during a recession. My hunch is it gets absolutely slaughtered. It's a guage of risk seeking appetite…
Sort of, it's not an issue until becomes one. They way out historically is run away inflation, aggressive taxation, war, and/or violent societal reorg. These all really suck compared to just living within your means…
The historical pattern is each time an economic downturn occurs they use more aggressive interventionism. The next time is different? No. The "economists" you're talking about don't matter. They have no voting power…
Forgot to cite my earlier comments. > Wages have stagnated & only recently picked up[1] > GDP has been the lowest post-recovery ever[2][6] > Net household debt is again at new highs[3] > Interest rates at forever in the…
More than $4.5T in bonds bought in multiple policy regimes over years and have been halted for sometime but we can't use that as a benchmark? I suspect it has something to do with not aligning with your narrative. How…
Economists perhaps but central bank governors don't feel they've hit any sort of limit. They all say over & over they remain "prepared" to "respond" & have an array of "tools" at their disposal. Not to mention some of…
It's stunning that anyone who has witnessed per asset class appreciation (consider wages an asset class as well) since the GFC could believe what you said. Inflation obviously helps those in debt but QE didn't inflate…