Brier scoring works on questions with cheap, fast resolution; the strategic decisions you mention (hiring, equipment, big purchases) resolve over months or years, often ambiguously, and the counterfactual never resolves…
I'm in software and if I could hire more American engineers, I would. It's not about the cost for my company, it's about the availability of skilled talent and American schools aren't producing nearly enough of it.…
Brier scoring works on questions with cheap, fast resolution; the strategic decisions you mention (hiring, equipment, big purchases) resolve over months or years, often ambiguously, and the counterfactual never resolves…
I'm in software and if I could hire more American engineers, I would. It's not about the cost for my company, it's about the availability of skilled talent and American schools aren't producing nearly enough of it.…