I don't really have a strong opinion either way on Flock but this is a strange objection. YC is a well-known startup accelerator that makes (pre-seed!) investments. I don't know if anyone has ever sincerely taken "YC…
That solution (stop pouring resources in to proofs, stay in your lane) works today. How does it work 5, 10, 20 years from now? The software and hardware advances will continue.
If, as you desire, we wrote that Yemen captured the island, who did they capture it from? Not-Yemen? That's just confusing for a civil war.
The evidence we have (not much) leaves the facts severely under-constrained. All the below are consistent with what we observe: - OpenAI lying their face off for marketing purposes - Buckmaster sore about getting beaten…
Neither side has offered hard proof for their interpretation (i.e. malice vs innocence), so shrug. If one is dead set on forming an opinion that's fine but it's all vibes until we know more. Science & math especially is…
I thought the same, but on second thought I merely had to deal on Tuesday with a lot of the mistakes Astra made on the preceding days. I wonder if this time lag of consequences explains why the sentiment is so common…
OAI's side of the story is that they discovered the approaches (and indeed solved problems - Euler equations vs NS equations) differed. They then offered Buckmaster lead authorship of OAI's proof, without Alpöge. But…
The unforced problem is still open.
AFAICT the unforced problem is still open. I don't think we've established that you need to be a literal God to create a finite-time blowup.
Whether or not ways exist to work around the singularities, that they exist is surely of note. Before von Neumann formalized QM people were still doing QM, okay fine. But it's wrong to then say von Neumann was doing no…
Yes, Stockfish is genuinely impressive. I would be proud to author Stockfish. You don't think so?
The "steal their thunder" is interpretation. What I'm saying is that you believe they solved NS on a lark to bully some other researchers, and that this is not impressive?
Even under your interpretation, OAI pushed a button and solved NS. Yes, that is very impressive. Are you kidding me? Imagine building an automated system that can solve NS.
NS is a question for natural science. Q: can we model these bodies of discrete particles with a continuous approximation? A: if you do, you can get aphysical singularities. "If in other sciences we should arrive at…
It seems that this conflates the leading causes of death in $BIRTH_YEAR with the leading causes of death for someone born in $BIRTH_YEAR?
The US is a big country so it's hard to generalize. But if you take the "default" US culture, it has been either ambivalent or hostile toward nerds for a long time. People who rightly point this out get shouted down as…
I don't like the implied assumption that you can only do one or the other. To use the author's own story, the US had both von Braun and Johnson. Also, there are just many scenarios where you can't afford to train…
This was mentioned in the article. > For example, when Timothy B. Lee looked at a spreadsheet that Zitron used to create a projection of Anthropic's revenue, he found, "He doesn't count February 1-10, counts March 1-10…
Jevons paradox states it might increase. It is not an ironclad law and there are many many cases where increasing efficiency wrt. a certain resource really will decrease the total consumption of that resource. Yes…
I'm telling you as a fact that as someone working for a manufacturing startup the tariffs have only made things more expensive for us. But I'm sure the Cleveland Cliffs execs are doing great.
Imagine you want to build a factory in the US. You pay tariffs on the factory equipment you need - much of it is made overseas. You pay tariffs on your input goods. And then when you try to export your customers get hit…
If we are applying Jevons paradox to this then the unit being consumed is not tokens but the inputs for token production - power, capex, something else. To draw an analogy to the steam engine,…
I also tried to evaluate this claim that households have less real income after debt service. It is difficult because it depends on many nuances, like whether we care about all credit, or simply revolving credit. Your…
You can look at the linked page. It uses "Income in 2024 C-CPI-U (2000-2024) and R-CPI-U-RS (pre-2000) adjusted dollars." I would be interested in a dataset that shows deflated household income over this same period…
I'm just evaluating the claim that household income has deflated for 50 years. So I took the start of the data series at ~60k and compared it against the latest datapoint at ~80k. So I concluded that the data does not…
I don't really have a strong opinion either way on Flock but this is a strange objection. YC is a well-known startup accelerator that makes (pre-seed!) investments. I don't know if anyone has ever sincerely taken "YC…
That solution (stop pouring resources in to proofs, stay in your lane) works today. How does it work 5, 10, 20 years from now? The software and hardware advances will continue.
If, as you desire, we wrote that Yemen captured the island, who did they capture it from? Not-Yemen? That's just confusing for a civil war.
The evidence we have (not much) leaves the facts severely under-constrained. All the below are consistent with what we observe: - OpenAI lying their face off for marketing purposes - Buckmaster sore about getting beaten…
Neither side has offered hard proof for their interpretation (i.e. malice vs innocence), so shrug. If one is dead set on forming an opinion that's fine but it's all vibes until we know more. Science & math especially is…
I thought the same, but on second thought I merely had to deal on Tuesday with a lot of the mistakes Astra made on the preceding days. I wonder if this time lag of consequences explains why the sentiment is so common…
OAI's side of the story is that they discovered the approaches (and indeed solved problems - Euler equations vs NS equations) differed. They then offered Buckmaster lead authorship of OAI's proof, without Alpöge. But…
The unforced problem is still open.
AFAICT the unforced problem is still open. I don't think we've established that you need to be a literal God to create a finite-time blowup.
Whether or not ways exist to work around the singularities, that they exist is surely of note. Before von Neumann formalized QM people were still doing QM, okay fine. But it's wrong to then say von Neumann was doing no…
Yes, Stockfish is genuinely impressive. I would be proud to author Stockfish. You don't think so?
The "steal their thunder" is interpretation. What I'm saying is that you believe they solved NS on a lark to bully some other researchers, and that this is not impressive?
Even under your interpretation, OAI pushed a button and solved NS. Yes, that is very impressive. Are you kidding me? Imagine building an automated system that can solve NS.
NS is a question for natural science. Q: can we model these bodies of discrete particles with a continuous approximation? A: if you do, you can get aphysical singularities. "If in other sciences we should arrive at…
It seems that this conflates the leading causes of death in $BIRTH_YEAR with the leading causes of death for someone born in $BIRTH_YEAR?
The US is a big country so it's hard to generalize. But if you take the "default" US culture, it has been either ambivalent or hostile toward nerds for a long time. People who rightly point this out get shouted down as…
I don't like the implied assumption that you can only do one or the other. To use the author's own story, the US had both von Braun and Johnson. Also, there are just many scenarios where you can't afford to train…
This was mentioned in the article. > For example, when Timothy B. Lee looked at a spreadsheet that Zitron used to create a projection of Anthropic's revenue, he found, "He doesn't count February 1-10, counts March 1-10…
Jevons paradox states it might increase. It is not an ironclad law and there are many many cases where increasing efficiency wrt. a certain resource really will decrease the total consumption of that resource. Yes…
I'm telling you as a fact that as someone working for a manufacturing startup the tariffs have only made things more expensive for us. But I'm sure the Cleveland Cliffs execs are doing great.
Imagine you want to build a factory in the US. You pay tariffs on the factory equipment you need - much of it is made overseas. You pay tariffs on your input goods. And then when you try to export your customers get hit…
If we are applying Jevons paradox to this then the unit being consumed is not tokens but the inputs for token production - power, capex, something else. To draw an analogy to the steam engine,…
I also tried to evaluate this claim that households have less real income after debt service. It is difficult because it depends on many nuances, like whether we care about all credit, or simply revolving credit. Your…
You can look at the linked page. It uses "Income in 2024 C-CPI-U (2000-2024) and R-CPI-U-RS (pre-2000) adjusted dollars." I would be interested in a dataset that shows deflated household income over this same period…
I'm just evaluating the claim that household income has deflated for 50 years. So I took the start of the data series at ~60k and compared it against the latest datapoint at ~80k. So I concluded that the data does not…