Florida, 2020: 63,217 domestic violence arrests The British arrest stats subsume DV harassment cases, and the original Times reporting quoted a police officer stating that they are the bulk of these numbers. I haven’t…
Addressing the hypothetical person you’re describing: car infrastructure may solve some needs, but it is in direct conflict with other needs. Give every adult a guaranteed parking space just at home and at work, and the…
The general topic and some specific ways to estimate a correction are described under this term: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sequential_analysis
(Maybe I’m reading too much of a narrative into what you wrote, but–) I don’t think it’s causal like that; it doesn’t have to be. In particular, “wealthy, modern urban cores” tend to be self-sustaining economic force…
AI CoT may work the same extremely flawed way that human introspection does, and that’s fine, the reason we may want to hold them to a higher standard is because someone proposed to use CoTs to monitor ethics and…
It does not come about magically from monetary or even fiscal policy. The demand for housing (and other construction) was and is real. People find use for, and like having much space, while being close together. What…
>This makes me think that our formal [definitions] of "intelligence" […] and what we intuitively look out for, are really two different things. Just two? You can name so many more terms in this concept cloud, e.g.:…
“Transparency” as leaks from abuse is very, very different from transparency as a policy of easy access – and neither makes you necessarily better informed. In short, a biased selection of information can leave you…
For one, finance is a macro force multiplier; it can make or break entire other industries. There’s also a bit of selection (global top) and survivorship (plenty of less visible non-success stories) in the wild money…
To expand just a bit more, the map is very blurry. Nation states tap into some real and old sentiments, but are not just a translation of those to a modern political language. They are their own new political projects,…
Mars is on (or above) a wiped out Earth level of difficulty already
Counter: https://www.vox.com/2016/5/9/11502464/gilens-page-oligarchy-... (and it isn’t a left vs right thing, Vox is replying to a whole bunch of coverage from all angles; I’ve mostly seen Gilens&Page posted from the…
I hope you’ll get a better answer, but a minimal solution is to use snscrape (https://github.com/JustAnotherArchivist/snscrape) to download a raw JSON dump of a user timeline. Some caveats: 1. This doesn’t work for all…
It’s not a closed system or a zero sum game. The average loan has positive expected value in terms of new, real goods and services being created – so it can be accompanied with an increase in nominal amount of money.…
Yes. If the (overall) nominal money flows decrease but (overall) real economy size stays the same – to the extent that it’s going to change prices for no “real” reason – people and central banks are likely to notice and…
Finding new particles and studying astronomical events has a larger nugget of similarity with the psychology modus operandi than you may think. They’re studying rare or unique objects with extremely finicky measurement…
This is just not true. In the act that established SPR (https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/COMPS-845/uslm/COMPS-845...) there’s much about supply, little about national security, and next to nothing about military: Sec…
Trimmed inflation measures exist, but this one is not it. They’re not used in a sneaky way, they’re clearly named “trimmed CPI”, “trimmed PCE” etc.
Coordination games and public goods games (which arguably model insurance) work best when people don’t adversely self-select, but coordinate around the social optimum (for insurance, when the risk pool is as large as…
In general, stock buybacks aren’t socially undesirable, but in this case would be more troubling I guess as they signal the company feels its R&D spending potential was already saturated.
Like the idea and execution a lot! Being IANAF, I like to refer people to chapters 4–7 of this lecture from Robert Shiller’s “Financial Markets” Yale course: https://youtu.be/_B_24GUWdSM?t=1269 (~40 minutes). The…
Probably not news to anyone who works with big data™, but I learned, after additional searches, that using (something like) duckdb as a CSV parser makes sense, especially if the alternative is loading the entire thing…
No it’s not. See e.g. https://twitter.com/matt_levine/status/1545152093501227009, https://twitter.com/MorganRicks1/status/1545404990457536512. In what meaning are you even using the term?
You can only be sure in hindsight which solution is comparatively or net good. Not all hard work done by smart and nice people turns out to be worthwhile. There are always trade-offs and cryptoassets bring them too. You…
Great job! I can see this being very useful, at the very least in the academia. For example, in meta-analytic reviews, you often go through hundreds of papers, identifying, highlighting and annotating the relevant…
Florida, 2020: 63,217 domestic violence arrests The British arrest stats subsume DV harassment cases, and the original Times reporting quoted a police officer stating that they are the bulk of these numbers. I haven’t…
Addressing the hypothetical person you’re describing: car infrastructure may solve some needs, but it is in direct conflict with other needs. Give every adult a guaranteed parking space just at home and at work, and the…
The general topic and some specific ways to estimate a correction are described under this term: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sequential_analysis
(Maybe I’m reading too much of a narrative into what you wrote, but–) I don’t think it’s causal like that; it doesn’t have to be. In particular, “wealthy, modern urban cores” tend to be self-sustaining economic force…
AI CoT may work the same extremely flawed way that human introspection does, and that’s fine, the reason we may want to hold them to a higher standard is because someone proposed to use CoTs to monitor ethics and…
It does not come about magically from monetary or even fiscal policy. The demand for housing (and other construction) was and is real. People find use for, and like having much space, while being close together. What…
>This makes me think that our formal [definitions] of "intelligence" […] and what we intuitively look out for, are really two different things. Just two? You can name so many more terms in this concept cloud, e.g.:…
“Transparency” as leaks from abuse is very, very different from transparency as a policy of easy access – and neither makes you necessarily better informed. In short, a biased selection of information can leave you…
For one, finance is a macro force multiplier; it can make or break entire other industries. There’s also a bit of selection (global top) and survivorship (plenty of less visible non-success stories) in the wild money…
To expand just a bit more, the map is very blurry. Nation states tap into some real and old sentiments, but are not just a translation of those to a modern political language. They are their own new political projects,…
Mars is on (or above) a wiped out Earth level of difficulty already
Counter: https://www.vox.com/2016/5/9/11502464/gilens-page-oligarchy-... (and it isn’t a left vs right thing, Vox is replying to a whole bunch of coverage from all angles; I’ve mostly seen Gilens&Page posted from the…
I hope you’ll get a better answer, but a minimal solution is to use snscrape (https://github.com/JustAnotherArchivist/snscrape) to download a raw JSON dump of a user timeline. Some caveats: 1. This doesn’t work for all…
It’s not a closed system or a zero sum game. The average loan has positive expected value in terms of new, real goods and services being created – so it can be accompanied with an increase in nominal amount of money.…
Yes. If the (overall) nominal money flows decrease but (overall) real economy size stays the same – to the extent that it’s going to change prices for no “real” reason – people and central banks are likely to notice and…
Finding new particles and studying astronomical events has a larger nugget of similarity with the psychology modus operandi than you may think. They’re studying rare or unique objects with extremely finicky measurement…
This is just not true. In the act that established SPR (https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/COMPS-845/uslm/COMPS-845...) there’s much about supply, little about national security, and next to nothing about military: Sec…
Trimmed inflation measures exist, but this one is not it. They’re not used in a sneaky way, they’re clearly named “trimmed CPI”, “trimmed PCE” etc.
Coordination games and public goods games (which arguably model insurance) work best when people don’t adversely self-select, but coordinate around the social optimum (for insurance, when the risk pool is as large as…
In general, stock buybacks aren’t socially undesirable, but in this case would be more troubling I guess as they signal the company feels its R&D spending potential was already saturated.
Like the idea and execution a lot! Being IANAF, I like to refer people to chapters 4–7 of this lecture from Robert Shiller’s “Financial Markets” Yale course: https://youtu.be/_B_24GUWdSM?t=1269 (~40 minutes). The…
Probably not news to anyone who works with big data™, but I learned, after additional searches, that using (something like) duckdb as a CSV parser makes sense, especially if the alternative is loading the entire thing…
No it’s not. See e.g. https://twitter.com/matt_levine/status/1545152093501227009, https://twitter.com/MorganRicks1/status/1545404990457536512. In what meaning are you even using the term?
You can only be sure in hindsight which solution is comparatively or net good. Not all hard work done by smart and nice people turns out to be worthwhile. There are always trade-offs and cryptoassets bring them too. You…
Great job! I can see this being very useful, at the very least in the academia. For example, in meta-analytic reviews, you often go through hundreds of papers, identifying, highlighting and annotating the relevant…