I respectfully disagree. I claim the probability of human existence could have been less than 1, just as the probability of heads when tossing a fair coin is less than one, even when heads is observed as an outcome. We…
Pardon me, but I'm not sure what you mean by quantity of interest. If the quantity of interest can always be re-cast as a value which is necessarily 1, isn't "quantity of interest" the same for all probability problems?
In estimating a probability for the occurrence of life in the universe, the authors essentially claim to know the probability of their own existence. For me, that's a red flag. I can't know the probability of a…
I respectfully disagree. I claim the probability of human existence could have been less than 1, just as the probability of heads when tossing a fair coin is less than one, even when heads is observed as an outcome. We…
Pardon me, but I'm not sure what you mean by quantity of interest. If the quantity of interest can always be re-cast as a value which is necessarily 1, isn't "quantity of interest" the same for all probability problems?
In estimating a probability for the occurrence of life in the universe, the authors essentially claim to know the probability of their own existence. For me, that's a red flag. I can't know the probability of a…