To give people some context, the difference between the two (Shia vs Sunni Muslims) is that the Shia believe Mohammed's son-in-law should have been his rightful successor (and he eventually did become the leader) while Sunni's believe that Mohammed Father-In-Law was his rightful successor (too bad God couldn't have made that more clear).
Also Saudi doesn't just follow plain old Sunni Islam. They practice Wahhabism (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahhabism) which has a more literal reading of the Quran (which explains the higher percentage of extremism). The royal family leveraged Wahhabism to gain and keep power of the region.
As long as the countries remain governed by religious politics and inflict God's so called will on others, there cannot be an end to the conflict.
The supposed beliefs are not the best way to look at the distinction, especially sociologically - that's like examining Catholic / Protestant split through the lens of their position on transubstantiation.
Far more interesting is the way in which they, eg, handle selection of clergy, or marriage patterns.
Shia clergy for instance is far more hierarchical than Sunni, which arguably is better for social stability since it avoids as many random yahoos deciding they have a hotline to god, who incidentally wants them to go on jihad.
Totally wouldn't dispute their support of Wahhabism, but can you elaborate on how Wahhabism helps them retain power? I've never really got that argument b/c it doesn't seem like there are moderate subversive elements. The subversive element seem to be all from the more extreme end.
The royal family has an alliance with the clergy and basically the clergy helps the royal family maintain the support of the people while the royal family allows the clergy to spread Salafi (the nice way to say someone is a follower of Wahhabism) beliefs without much hinderance.
The royal family is really lacking in the pedigree department. They've married into the right families now, but originally the Sauds were a bunch of hicks. They allied themselves with religious outsiders on the understanding that the priests would legitimize the Saudis (vs. the much better pedigreed Hashemites [1] while the Saudis would give the priests preeminence over their rivals.
To get a Western-style wall between mosque-and-state in historically Muslim societies requires an almost unthinkable rewriting of the social contract.
Islam is not just a religion. It is a very deliberately structured guide for the entirety of society. "Full-stack" social control as we on HN might call it. The Quran is a complete manual that details everything expected and required of a good Muslim, from the food that can be eaten to the appearance of your body.
Trying to make a wedge between Islam and government in these places simply will not work. Many European historians contend that Western state secularism was a direct result of there being no lasting European empire following Rome to enforce religious doctrines (whereas most of the ME has been in the hands of one empire or another since the founding of Islam), and the Protestant Reformation only cemented the expectation among various nobles that they get to rule the world while the church sticks with ruling the soul.
In short, the greater Middle East will always remain governed by religious politics. Something has to fix the mess out there, but excluding religion simply won't work.
> Islam is not just a religion. It is a very deliberately structured guide for the entirety of society. "Full-stack" social control as we on HN might call it. The Quran is a complete manual that details everything expected and required of a good Muslim, from the food that can be eaten to the appearance of your body.
Christianity is not any different.
"You shall not cut your hair round or trim your beard". 3rd book Mose, 19:27
Read the Bible, and you’ll find definitions for when to eat what, how long to preserve what, how to punish crimes, etc.
Trying to justify one terribly gone wrong political ideology with another isn't a good way to justify an argument. And in the modern age, many Christian majority nations have successfully created secular states, something Islamic states won't and never will consider unless major reform can occur.
The difference being the New Testament was written decades after Christ's death by apostles who expected worldly salvation a lot earlier, and so the stories are ripe for exaggeration and misremembered details (and the parts that the Catholic Church destroyed because they were incompatible with their ruling ideology but we'll let that go for now).
As for the Old Testament: how many Christians keep kosher?
Islam's founding story is much more straightforward: Angel tells Muhammed to transcribe a book that exists word-for-word in heaven. No ambiguity there.
Exactly no ambiguity. The Quran and the Hadiths clearly state things as they should be and leave little to ambiguity, and that is why reform is extremely difficult within Islam. When the book clearly says that it is the one and true word of God and is perfect, how will you justify reformation. Saying that religion is not a political issue in the middle east is a complete misunderstanding by people.
I never said religion is not a political issue in the Middle East, I meant that you cannot simply fix the Middle East by "fixing" religion. You also cannot fix America's dysfunctional government by making it more like Singapore's. Whatever happens must be compatible with the cultures of the people living there, not what outsiders would prefer it to be. Come to think of it, that's a hefty reason the region is such a mess in the first place.
Edit: the Hadiths are continually debated for accuracy and adherence as they have varying levels of perceived legitimacy, somewhat like interpretations of passages in the Christian New Testament.
Christianity also has the very convenient line "Render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar's, and unto God the things that are God's"[1] in the New Testament that basically codifies separation of church and state into the religion. Islam has nothing equivalent, in fact more so the opposite.
The fact that a rule is in the OT doesn't mean it is Christian belief that it is applicable. In fact, the rejection of most of the OT Jewish law as inapplicable to non-Jewish Christian is itself in the Bible (Acts 15).
And yet, there is a nice quote, attributed to Jesus himself, in the New Testament, saying that "I am not here to replace the old laws". Which can be interpreted as meaning that the OT still is relevant.
Challenging the Catholic Church and the divine right of kings was unthinkable too, and was a "full stack" social control model.
Ideology doesn't do anything. People do things. Ideology is completely instrumental. Material forces dictate the way ideology manifests because, having no power of its own ideology must be propagated by something physical.
The enlightenment, first of all a 20th century reinterpretation of history was not ideology overcoming ideology, but material forces of social change outmoding old ideology and fertilizing new.
So the question is, what are the material, physical forces driving the political situation in the Middle East?
Would it be ridiculous to say that the petrodollar, coups and bombs drive it?
Yes, exactly. The debacle in the Middle East has far more to do with imperialism and neoliberalism than religion. Trying to fix a religion-dominated society by viewing it primarily through the lens of religion misses the larger picture, which unfortunately I see as (and am complicit with) being willing to turn a blind eye to the abuses of our past and present leaders so that I don't have to spend too much on gas.
People who believe that killing is wrong engage in bloody wars. People call themselves pro-life but support the death penalty. Countries that claim to promote peace invade other countries. People say they believe in freedom and democracy and push a police state.
People go through contortions to square the dissonance between their ideology and their actions. Ideology serves people, not the other way around. At best ideology is a hint at what people are like. There are always gross contradictions between what people believe and how people act.
Ideology does not arise from pure reason, it does not spring from the void. Ideology does not exist on its own, only in conjunction with power structures; ideology is completely subordinate to physical power. Ideology does not create power, it rationalizes it.
I agree that there can be contradictions, but those contradictions don't stand in complete separation from the ideology like you say. Ideology can serve people in power, but for the average citizen it forms the way they think and conduct themselves, and that is where the problem is.
Lebanon has been a highly secular state with a varied population when it comes to religion (Christians, Sunnis, Shiites, Druze). Unfortunately Hezbollah now has far more influence than it should have, which is what is ruining Lebanon in my opinion.
My country Tunisia is slowly shifting towards a pseudo-secular republic. The constitution currently lists Islam as the country's religion, but freedom of religion is guaranteed. The majority are Sunnis, but there are some Shiites, Abadis, and a small historically Jewish population based on the island of Djerba.
Lebanon was a Christian-majority country prior to the mass wave of immigration in the 19th & 20th centuries and if we overlook this historical fact, it still retains a sizable population of Christians that makes the idea of an Islamic theocratic or fundamentalist rule highly unlikely but I agree with you that the main prob with Lebanon political system is its deep-rooted Confessionalism resulting from Taif Accord and political factions capitalizing and exploiting this system and this includes Iran-backed Hezbolla or Saudi-backed Future Movement.
And yet, many historically Muslim societies do have a significant degree of separation between church and state. Turkey - a 99% Muslim society - introduced a secular constitution decades ago, and its secularist policies has seen women barred from political office or even jailed for covering their hair in a religiously-prescribed manner. Similarly, whilst the central Asian states and Muslim parts of China originally had secular government imposed on them by outside powers rather than phased in by indigenous nationalists, there's little doubting the separation of church and state exists.
Sure, I'd be the first to agree that trying to introduce the wedge from the outside is incredibly dangerous and liable to backfire (even though in the long run it worked pretty much everywhere in the Soviet sphere of influence bar Afghanistan). But a large degree of separation of church and state is entirely possible with most of the population remaining Muslim.
And frankly, the degree of separation of religion and politics is often overstated in the West. I mean, I live in a country with govt-funded parochial schools and an actual established church with formal political power... and I'd still consider it to be a society where religion has less influence on politics than the US.
I'd disagree with that assessment. It seems that Kabul had pockets that were growing into secularism. The country as a whole was not. Qandahar never had the dip into secularism.
Too many Westerners (my apologies if you are not, I am, and I see this contention that you have brought forth from many of them) read things about 'Afghanistan' that are really about Kabul. It's similar to equating New York City to all of America.
Turkey is slowly become less and less secular and the same can be said about many of the former muslim majority Soviet Nations. Iran and Saudi are already way past any form of separation (Iran is a complete Theocracy and Saudi is essentially a religious monarchy).
Northern and eastern African states are rapidly adopting Islam and it's merging with state policy. Also Malaysia and a lesser extent Indonesia. There is definitely a trend away from separating mosque-and-state. Examples of the inverse all seem to come from before the last two decades.
Time will tell if it will have a positive impact on developing nations that currently lack strong community/political structure.
Turkey is none-the-less a curious case given their economic status and political history.
>Islam is not just a religion. It is a very deliberately structured guide for the entirety of society. "Full-stack" social control as we on HN might call it. The Quran is a complete manual that details everything expected and required of a good Muslim, from the food that can be eaten to the appearance of your body.
You are sort of right that Islam was more full stack than Christianity is in western civ now, but this is an over simplification. There were points in Western civilization were the Catholic Church had strong control over western laws.
And while Islam started off with a pretty much unified religious and state body, that hasn't always been the case. The Ottoman Empire didn't use real Islamic law. In the far flung corners of the Ottoman Empire (like what is now Saudi Arabia) they pretty much practiced a more pure Islamic law, but the Ottoman Empire didn't. And it's successor states really didn't either.
Most of the middle east is on a legal system that quite different from Islamic law. Only really the Saudis are following anything that closely, and even they don't do it 100%. The rest of the Islamic world really just uses it as a family court.
The push to bring back Islamic law into full legal force is somewhat new. It's a fundamentalist movement that pushing that idea.
Plus the idea that Islamic law is the only law isn't just a bad idea it's essentially unislamic too. Tazir crimes are laws that rulers make for their people and that has been part of Islam since the start.
> The Quran is a complete manual that details everything expected and required of a good Muslim, from the food that can be eaten to the appearance of your body.
This couldn't be further from the truth. For example, Salat (Praying) which is the 2nd most important pillar of Islam right after the oral declaration (statement of faith - Shahada), you can't find anything whether How-To guide or tutorials in your so-called manual, and the same holds true for thee rest of the pillarsm and this very reason is the chief problem mainstream Sunnis have with Koranists[0] who only endorse the teachings of the Koran while rejecting completely Mohammad's sayings (Sunna).
So, no the Koran is not a complete manual for the Sunni Muslim fundamentalists, far from it. It just complements Sunna and both constitute the canonical reference for those people.
As with your deterministic overview of the inability to separate Islam and State in Muslim-majority countries, you just have to read about the experiments of Tunisia, Turkey and Albania and see for yourself how secularism developed in those countries despite all the challenges and concerns you cited in your comment.
Literal Islam whether Sunni or Shiite version pose indeed a challenge for secularism to flourish in Muslim-majority countries but to write off in absolute terms, secularism taking root in those countries not now not ever is shortsighted and unfair. However, it's still refreshing to hear orientalists views every once in a while on those topics.
> For example, Salat (Praying) which is the 2nd most important pillar of Islam right after the oral declaration (statement of faith - Shahada), you can't find anything whether How-To guide or tutorials in your so-called manual
Anything that Mohammed commanded has to be followed. For example all Muslim men must grow and beard and shave their mustache because that is what Allah through the prophet commanded. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpSgEr2vnwk
The Royal family essentially entered into a Faustian pact with the religious fundamentalists who've held massive sway over the country ever since. (Not unlike The Sparrows in GOT).
Of course, religion never exists in a social vacuum. The Sparrows, at least in the books, came to power with support of the common people who were sick of the depredations of turmoil caused by fighting between the noble houses. So what empowers the fundamentalists, beyond moral authority?
>>As long as the countries remain governed by religious politics and inflict God's so called will on others, there cannot be an end to the conflict.
This is very important. The people from the Islamic countries should rise above their God's so called will in a similar way as how the European Christians rose above their God's so called will. We need a Islamic Arab renaissance and a corresponding Islamic Separation of church (mosque/sharia) and state.
I know this opinion is highly unpopular, but until said "Renaissance" happens, I see mass Muslim immigration to Western countries as a dangerous and very short-sighted policy. Very liberal and accepting countries will start (or, conversely, have already started) feeling the effects of a foreign culture that has vastly different cultural norms and values and refuses to adapt.
Not highly unpopular everywhere, resistance is brewing and I don't think (or hope) the Merkel type of recent past will prevail. Wonder whether Europe will end up as an extension of the middle east one day (say 50-100 years) or start reverting to the previous status quo...
It was basically just something invented, or adopted, ad-hoc by a Sufi Saint who practiced Sunnism and his followers who did not want to be under the yoke of the Ottomans any more, actually in those days this concept did not even exist and it was the 15th century already, and then the whole Shia Sunni myth was invented after the empire took power in the 15th century, like 700 years after Muhammad died.
The Fatimids existed before this in 900, around 200 years after Muhammad's death. But this empire was completely different from the Fatimids, and it came into being hundreds of years after their fall.
It depends on your definition of "plain old". If you are referring to that some people choose not to follow the violent part of sunni Islam, then you are correct. However, under the normal definition of "plain old", Wahhabism is the plain old sunni Islam as Islam was 1400 years ago.
Iran and the Persian people have a long and illustrious history, with deep culture going back as far as human history and a (relatively) vibrant scientific community. They have a lot of natural resources and the firmament for a real long sustaining culture.
Saudi on the other hand is very "new" to the world in terms of culture and influence, only coming into prominence since the 1940s oil boom. The harsh environment isn't hospitable to living there without extreme energy use.
Both obviously have major regional economic power, but the Saudi society is built on sand (literally and metaphorically). In the very long term Iran's importance will come back so if anything the US and the broader world should be seeking to engage more with Iran and less with Saudi IMO.
That's not getting into a lot of the political stuff obviously, more just an analysis of the "fundamentals."
This assumes the past mirrors the present. Solar panels for example could make Saudi Arabia a major energy power for a very long time frame. Saudi Arabia benefits from a much lower population density and significantly higher GDP per person.
Long term one of the largest questions is how cheap desalination can get. At ~100 gallons per cent both areas can effectively stop being deserts, but current prices of 3 gallons per cent act as a significant economic drain.
PS: In the US the average person directly uses ~90 gallons per day @ 3 gallons per cent that's only ~100$ per year for desalination. However, people use vastly more water indirectly, one pound of beef takes ~1,847 gallons.
Solar power is very democratizing in this respect, nobody is going to have a real lock in. Sure it's sunny in Saudi, but there's nobody anywhere near them that needs large amounts of electricity and couldn't just lay out panels themselves.
Their GDP is based on oil. In the long term that's going to dry up, and unless they institute major reforms starting right now they'll be in serious trouble.
One of the 'solutions' to solar energy storage is to collect power from the east / west of you. Considering most grid scale storage is expensive and not that efficient ~5-10% transportation losses are viable which makes China, India and the EU well within range of Saudi solar electric power.
Another option is manufacturing, cheap power means cheap aluminum. And there is significant research into synthetic fuels, even if significantly more expensive than Oil right now they are likely in demand for aircraft in the long term.
The curse of oil, they have been talking about weaning themselves of it for a long time but have failed to achieve anything significant. It's more about their economy than their own consumption.
It's not just that it's based on oil that's the problem, it's also that in general, Saudis don't even know what "work" is. Most of their revenue-generating businesses are planned and run by Westerners. They grow up with maids and servants.
In fact, I'm not sure they can do anything besides eat, pray, and watch soccer. It's a really, really strange place.
Going there on business was a very weird experience for me - the country somehow functions, but none of the locals actually do anything, as far as I could tell.
It behooves the world to have a lasting peace with Iran but the last thing the world needs is a consolidated regional religious power of any kind. It'd be better to focus on giving the Kurds a Kurdistan in the Northern part of Iraq to call home. I'd bet they'd be great allies to the West.
Yes this is a great point - though I'm not advocating for any consolidated religious power. I don't think Iran would really be a good fit for that anyway, as the political-religious combination is fairly recent and was an affect of major political polarization as the whole region started gaining power through oil trade.
The Kurds are an amazing and resilient group that have been an incredible ally to the west.
I don't know any group it's size who has been more historically oppressed, marginalized and killed with almost nobody paying any attention to it.
The flip side of that cultural influence that while Saudi Arabia as a country is relatively young and the land is inhospitable compared with Iran, it also happens to be home to Mecca and Islam's other most holy city, which means the state is disproportionately influential over and vulnerable to adherents of the world's fastest growing and most highly-politicised religion. So it would be quite hard to ignore even if the neighbouring countries had most of the oil and especially if the House of Saud remained ostensibly friendly.
I'm under the impression that the US is mostly following rather than mostly leading in engagement with the Saudi rather than Iran: one country is lead by plutocrats whose relationship with the US is driven by desire to dominate the world oil trade, and the other controlled by powerful revolutionaries and theocrats whose control over an increasingly diverse society depends on invoking the spectre of "Great Satan" as recent history's most dangerous enemy.
1. Climate change is accelerating and changing geopolitics of the region faster. Iran’s power and influence has been continuously decreasing in past 2500 years as the Iranian Plateau has got drier. As an example, Iran’s population centers have been moving north as time goes on.
2. Do not ignore role of management and human resources in power and development. In past 40 years Iranians have been making big management and strategic mistakes. Mistakes that engaged them in an eight year war with their neighbor — Iraq, put their interests at adds with world’s largest economic and military power — the United States, and now fighting a cold war with the majority Sunni in the middle east. What do all these have in common?
> The Islamic Republic of Iran, a Shiite theocracy, claims leadership of the Shiites, which make up roughly 13 percent of Muslims worldwide. For both regimes, religion is an important tool of power.
That is mightily misleading. It is more important what part of the shiites make out of Middle East muslims. Because large parts of the muslim populations live in places like Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Pakistan, China, Bangladesh - and from bird's eye - they don't seem to care much about sectarian struggles.
>>Because large parts of the muslim populations live in places like Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Pakistan, China, Bangladesh - and from bird's eye - they don't seem to care much about sectarian struggles.
Not so much anymore. With the Salafists/Wahabis spreading their hateful agenda against the Shias in these parts of the world in a very big way, there are numerous incidents of mainly Sunnis attacking Shias and a little bit of the other way round too.
I personally think it has to do with the low average IQ of of people inhabiting Muslim countries. I know it's racist and not politically correct and I am not about that, but Judaism starts out with the exact same premise that God created the law and he handed it to Moses through the tablets. Yet Jews have always held that humans interpret the law and therefore the law is under the control of people not God (despite even miracles and charismatic leaders that say otherwise), not God. Why is that. To me it's because Jews are smart and Muslims not as smart enough to understand that this is how it should be, that it's stupid for a plethora of reasons to think God created the law or God wants you to run the government according to his laws.
Just going to list cultures smashed to pieces by imperialism and then blamed for being too dumb and lazy to fix their own problems:
India (British imperialism), pre-Communist China (forcible opium addiction, mercantile conquest), Native Americans (disease, conquest), West Africa (slave trade), freed American slaves (no acres, no mule, no vote), Middle East (Sykes-Picot, British Petroleum, Bush Administration).
The people with high intelligence, say 100 average IQ, Chinese for instance recovered just fine. The people who could not adapt were the less smart ones and their history was problematic long before imperialism came. Imperialism was just the latest in a series of subjugations for most of these people, or they were lucky that no one tried to subjugate them as was the case for the Native Americans in the US, the same sort of luck the US had once it had conquered the continent. In Central and South America, because of civilization, the Natives were often brutal to each other before Imperialism and whatever empire was running the show they were running it similarly to the way the British did it.
Right now if you look at GDP there is a definite correlation between GDP per capita and average IQ. Why is that? It's because the people with 125+ IQ are the ones intelligent enough to compete in the global market and not be subjugated by other people who want to exploit them. You want me to grow coffee and pay me .50cents/hour go screw yourself. Our country will sell coffee through our own brand of Juan Valdez coffee stores globally, and I will earn 20/hr to grow this stuff. It's black gold. How does that happen. It happens because of intelligence.
You see anyone in the Middle East producing anything, whether cars, software, whatever. No. Well why is that? Is it because of the shitty government? India's got a shitty government, but in a country of a billion you have a few million people with high enough IQ to compete globally for that stuff. In the Middle East first of all you get paid no matter what if you are a local so you don't have to compete, and secondly your average IQ is 80 so very few people among you can do the work even if you had to. India has a similar average IQ, but a huge population so... and no free money so they can do it and have to do it.
A more general point is those without power get screwed in human civilization and power is usually bought with money and money is usually gotten through intelligence. There are many other ways to get power, for instance the Saudis acquired it through the US by exporting them oil. The US basically did everything for them and gave them a ton of money to f* the world over.
> Right now if you look at GDP there is a definite correlation between GDP per capita and average IQ.
No there isn't. South Koreans are generally accepted to have one of the highest average IQs, but the South Korean GDP per capita is half that of the US.
Does not mean it won't get there or close. It's quadrupled since 1999. The exception would be North Korea which might prove that ideology and Imperialism, the current government is actually a remnant of Japanese Imperialism, can really screw you over. But again the question is how long.
Correlation also does not not imply causation, that's a fallacy. Correlation is simply evidence for causation, not undeniable evidence or definitive evidence but some evidence nonetheless.
This is beyond "not politically correct", it's an outright racist slur. We've asked you before not to take HN threads further into flamewar territory. Please don't post like this again.
> The Catholic Church ruled in a period where opposing it was difficult not only because of societal norms but also the peoples understanding of the world was limited and so opposing views were hard to justify.
That's your claim. I say that the catholic church ruled because it had a stranglehold on material power. It behaved as a cartel for monarchic control. The ideology of the catholic church never prevented challenges to its power that were heterodox, like the multiple antipopes that arose through the years. The ideology of a celibate clergy never stopped popes from siring children and placing them in power.
The catholic church declined because technology and economic activity developed into a system that could not be controlled by an entity like the church. Monarchies and the church became obsolete for material reasons, not the appearance of competing ideologies. The ideologies that came about were filling in the vacuum left by the church. A new social order had to be explained. Ideology is post-hoc.
Ideology is not post-hoc but tied in with the process that creates it. Look at stat ups. The culture of a start up is its ideology and gives direction to the company which reciprocates by cementing that culture as a definite if it causes that startup to be successful.
Ideology and social order go hand in hand, and even more so in Political situations and you have to be very oblivious to say that Islam is not an political religious ideology for most of the Middle East.
The culture of a startup is a reflection of its economic context: A startup receives VC funding, has few employees to start with and must optimize growth in order to be successful. It's also a reflection of the power relationship of the founders and the other employees: the culture of a startup optimizes the values and preferred organizational structure of the founders. Startup culture does not cause these things, it is the reification of these relationships. It is symbolic.
It is an important characteristic of ideology that it is symbolic: it means that multiple people can interpret it in different ways. Which interpretations are "correct"? The ones that conform to the underlying power structure. The power structure punishes "misinterpretations" and rewards "correct" interpretations.
Just as different start-ups have different ideologies because they have different power structures and economic relations, Islam in the Middle East is not a coherent political ideology. The Islam of Iran reflects the organization of its government, not the other way around. The Islam of Saudi Arabia reflects the organization of its government, not the other way around.
The Islam of Da'esh, which is considered heterodox by literally every other sect of Islam, is a reflection of its power structures.
The same signs and ideas reflect different physical realities. What drives the development of signs and ideas? The physical reality. Only the material can propagate ideology, and only the material that propagates itself succeeds in the long-run.
What use is it to say that "Islam is a political religious ideology for most of the Middle East"? What analytic and predictive power does this statement have?
I agree with what you are saying but not to the degree that the ideology is purely influenced by the governmental structure. Islam existed far before either Iran or Saudi existed. Their formation was influenced by the type of ideas Islam enforces as much as Islam was influenced by the power structure that eventually formed as all the pieces fell into place by the formation of those nations. Islam enables interpretations that lead to the formation of these oppressive regimes and then these regimes and then the power structure continues to enforce that interpretation.
> Islam enables interpretations that lead to the formation of these oppressive regimes and then these regimes and then the power structure continues to enforce that interpretation.
Ok, sure. I can agree with that, but in my opinion it's a low-power assertion. Liberalism as an ideology allows imperialism and coups, too. Like the one that ousted the democratically elected prime minister of Iran and replaced him with the autocratic Shah.
There is nothing especially poisonous about Islam. The politics of the Middle East are largely driven by global capitalism, imperialism, and war. What has more political force? A cruise missile or a copy of the Quran?
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[ 3.8 ms ] story [ 129 ms ] threadAlso Saudi doesn't just follow plain old Sunni Islam. They practice Wahhabism (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahhabism) which has a more literal reading of the Quran (which explains the higher percentage of extremism). The royal family leveraged Wahhabism to gain and keep power of the region.
As long as the countries remain governed by religious politics and inflict God's so called will on others, there cannot be an end to the conflict.
Far more interesting is the way in which they, eg, handle selection of clergy, or marriage patterns.
Shia clergy for instance is far more hierarchical than Sunni, which arguably is better for social stability since it avoids as many random yahoos deciding they have a hotline to god, who incidentally wants them to go on jihad.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hashemites
Islam is not just a religion. It is a very deliberately structured guide for the entirety of society. "Full-stack" social control as we on HN might call it. The Quran is a complete manual that details everything expected and required of a good Muslim, from the food that can be eaten to the appearance of your body.
Trying to make a wedge between Islam and government in these places simply will not work. Many European historians contend that Western state secularism was a direct result of there being no lasting European empire following Rome to enforce religious doctrines (whereas most of the ME has been in the hands of one empire or another since the founding of Islam), and the Protestant Reformation only cemented the expectation among various nobles that they get to rule the world while the church sticks with ruling the soul.
In short, the greater Middle East will always remain governed by religious politics. Something has to fix the mess out there, but excluding religion simply won't work.
Christianity is not any different.
"You shall not cut your hair round or trim your beard". 3rd book Mose, 19:27
Read the Bible, and you’ll find definitions for when to eat what, how long to preserve what, how to punish crimes, etc.
As for the Old Testament: how many Christians keep kosher?
Islam's founding story is much more straightforward: Angel tells Muhammed to transcribe a book that exists word-for-word in heaven. No ambiguity there.
Edit: the Hadiths are continually debated for accuracy and adherence as they have varying levels of perceived legitimacy, somewhat like interpretations of passages in the Christian New Testament.
1.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Render_unto_Caesar
Moreover, the elevation of faith over adherence to law as the path to salvation also has the effect of deemphasizing the latter.
Ideology doesn't do anything. People do things. Ideology is completely instrumental. Material forces dictate the way ideology manifests because, having no power of its own ideology must be propagated by something physical.
The enlightenment, first of all a 20th century reinterpretation of history was not ideology overcoming ideology, but material forces of social change outmoding old ideology and fertilizing new.
So the question is, what are the material, physical forces driving the political situation in the Middle East?
Would it be ridiculous to say that the petrodollar, coups and bombs drive it?
It also took hundreds of years, and numerous very bloody wars.
> Ideology doesn't do anything. People do things.
What people believe definitely affects what people do. I don't see how you can seriously argue otherwise.
People go through contortions to square the dissonance between their ideology and their actions. Ideology serves people, not the other way around. At best ideology is a hint at what people are like. There are always gross contradictions between what people believe and how people act.
Ideology does not arise from pure reason, it does not spring from the void. Ideology does not exist on its own, only in conjunction with power structures; ideology is completely subordinate to physical power. Ideology does not create power, it rationalizes it.
Lebanon has been a highly secular state with a varied population when it comes to religion (Christians, Sunnis, Shiites, Druze). Unfortunately Hezbollah now has far more influence than it should have, which is what is ruining Lebanon in my opinion.
My country Tunisia is slowly shifting towards a pseudo-secular republic. The constitution currently lists Islam as the country's religion, but freedom of religion is guaranteed. The majority are Sunnis, but there are some Shiites, Abadis, and a small historically Jewish population based on the island of Djerba.
Sure, I'd be the first to agree that trying to introduce the wedge from the outside is incredibly dangerous and liable to backfire (even though in the long run it worked pretty much everywhere in the Soviet sphere of influence bar Afghanistan). But a large degree of separation of church and state is entirely possible with most of the population remaining Muslim.
And frankly, the degree of separation of religion and politics is often overstated in the West. I mean, I live in a country with govt-funded parochial schools and an actual established church with formal political power... and I'd still consider it to be a society where religion has less influence on politics than the US.
https://hmstur.wordpress.com/2014/11/23/afghan-women-and-a-m...
Too many Westerners (my apologies if you are not, I am, and I see this contention that you have brought forth from many of them) read things about 'Afghanistan' that are really about Kabul. It's similar to equating New York City to all of America.
Edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secularism_in_Turkey
Time will tell if it will have a positive impact on developing nations that currently lack strong community/political structure.
Turkey is none-the-less a curious case given their economic status and political history.
You are sort of right that Islam was more full stack than Christianity is in western civ now, but this is an over simplification. There were points in Western civilization were the Catholic Church had strong control over western laws.
And while Islam started off with a pretty much unified religious and state body, that hasn't always been the case. The Ottoman Empire didn't use real Islamic law. In the far flung corners of the Ottoman Empire (like what is now Saudi Arabia) they pretty much practiced a more pure Islamic law, but the Ottoman Empire didn't. And it's successor states really didn't either.
Most of the middle east is on a legal system that quite different from Islamic law. Only really the Saudis are following anything that closely, and even they don't do it 100%. The rest of the Islamic world really just uses it as a family court.
The push to bring back Islamic law into full legal force is somewhat new. It's a fundamentalist movement that pushing that idea.
Plus the idea that Islamic law is the only law isn't just a bad idea it's essentially unislamic too. Tazir crimes are laws that rulers make for their people and that has been part of Islam since the start.
Could you expand on that?
This couldn't be further from the truth. For example, Salat (Praying) which is the 2nd most important pillar of Islam right after the oral declaration (statement of faith - Shahada), you can't find anything whether How-To guide or tutorials in your so-called manual, and the same holds true for thee rest of the pillarsm and this very reason is the chief problem mainstream Sunnis have with Koranists[0] who only endorse the teachings of the Koran while rejecting completely Mohammad's sayings (Sunna).
So, no the Koran is not a complete manual for the Sunni Muslim fundamentalists, far from it. It just complements Sunna and both constitute the canonical reference for those people.
As with your deterministic overview of the inability to separate Islam and State in Muslim-majority countries, you just have to read about the experiments of Tunisia, Turkey and Albania and see for yourself how secularism developed in those countries despite all the challenges and concerns you cited in your comment.
Literal Islam whether Sunni or Shiite version pose indeed a challenge for secularism to flourish in Muslim-majority countries but to write off in absolute terms, secularism taking root in those countries not now not ever is shortsighted and unfair. However, it's still refreshing to hear orientalists views every once in a while on those topics.
[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quranism
The Quran orders Muslims to obey the Prophet Peace be upon him: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bB4cARWalY4
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Mosque_seizure#Policies
The Royal family essentially entered into a Faustian pact with the religious fundamentalists who've held massive sway over the country ever since. (Not unlike The Sparrows in GOT).
This is very important. The people from the Islamic countries should rise above their God's so called will in a similar way as how the European Christians rose above their God's so called will. We need a Islamic Arab renaissance and a corresponding Islamic Separation of church (mosque/sharia) and state.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Separation_of_church_and_state
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safavid_Empire
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safaviyya
It was basically just something invented, or adopted, ad-hoc by a Sufi Saint who practiced Sunnism and his followers who did not want to be under the yoke of the Ottomans any more, actually in those days this concept did not even exist and it was the 15th century already, and then the whole Shia Sunni myth was invented after the empire took power in the 15th century, like 700 years after Muhammad died.
The Fatimids existed before this in 900, around 200 years after Muhammad's death. But this empire was completely different from the Fatimids, and it came into being hundreds of years after their fall.
It depends on your definition of "plain old". If you are referring to that some people choose not to follow the violent part of sunni Islam, then you are correct. However, under the normal definition of "plain old", Wahhabism is the plain old sunni Islam as Islam was 1400 years ago.
Saudi on the other hand is very "new" to the world in terms of culture and influence, only coming into prominence since the 1940s oil boom. The harsh environment isn't hospitable to living there without extreme energy use.
Both obviously have major regional economic power, but the Saudi society is built on sand (literally and metaphorically). In the very long term Iran's importance will come back so if anything the US and the broader world should be seeking to engage more with Iran and less with Saudi IMO.
That's not getting into a lot of the political stuff obviously, more just an analysis of the "fundamentals."
Long term one of the largest questions is how cheap desalination can get. At ~100 gallons per cent both areas can effectively stop being deserts, but current prices of 3 gallons per cent act as a significant economic drain.
PS: In the US the average person directly uses ~90 gallons per day @ 3 gallons per cent that's only ~100$ per year for desalination. However, people use vastly more water indirectly, one pound of beef takes ~1,847 gallons.
Their GDP is based on oil. In the long term that's going to dry up, and unless they institute major reforms starting right now they'll be in serious trouble.
Another option is manufacturing, cheap power means cheap aluminum. And there is significant research into synthetic fuels, even if significantly more expensive than Oil right now they are likely in demand for aircraft in the long term.
In fact, I'm not sure they can do anything besides eat, pray, and watch soccer. It's a really, really strange place.
Going there on business was a very weird experience for me - the country somehow functions, but none of the locals actually do anything, as far as I could tell.
As if that's not happened in Western societies?
The Kurds are an amazing and resilient group that have been an incredible ally to the west.
I don't know any group it's size who has been more historically oppressed, marginalized and killed with almost nobody paying any attention to it.
I'm under the impression that the US is mostly following rather than mostly leading in engagement with the Saudi rather than Iran: one country is lead by plutocrats whose relationship with the US is driven by desire to dominate the world oil trade, and the other controlled by powerful revolutionaries and theocrats whose control over an increasingly diverse society depends on invoking the spectre of "Great Satan" as recent history's most dangerous enemy.
1. Climate change is accelerating and changing geopolitics of the region faster. Iran’s power and influence has been continuously decreasing in past 2500 years as the Iranian Plateau has got drier. As an example, Iran’s population centers have been moving north as time goes on. 2. Do not ignore role of management and human resources in power and development. In past 40 years Iranians have been making big management and strategic mistakes. Mistakes that engaged them in an eight year war with their neighbor — Iraq, put their interests at adds with world’s largest economic and military power — the United States, and now fighting a cold war with the majority Sunni in the middle east. What do all these have in common?
That is mightily misleading. It is more important what part of the shiites make out of Middle East muslims. Because large parts of the muslim populations live in places like Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Pakistan, China, Bangladesh - and from bird's eye - they don't seem to care much about sectarian struggles.
Not so much anymore. With the Salafists/Wahabis spreading their hateful agenda against the Shias in these parts of the world in a very big way, there are numerous incidents of mainly Sunnis attacking Shias and a little bit of the other way round too.
India (British imperialism), pre-Communist China (forcible opium addiction, mercantile conquest), Native Americans (disease, conquest), West Africa (slave trade), freed American slaves (no acres, no mule, no vote), Middle East (Sykes-Picot, British Petroleum, Bush Administration).
You get the idea.
Right now if you look at GDP there is a definite correlation between GDP per capita and average IQ. Why is that? It's because the people with 125+ IQ are the ones intelligent enough to compete in the global market and not be subjugated by other people who want to exploit them. You want me to grow coffee and pay me .50cents/hour go screw yourself. Our country will sell coffee through our own brand of Juan Valdez coffee stores globally, and I will earn 20/hr to grow this stuff. It's black gold. How does that happen. It happens because of intelligence.
You see anyone in the Middle East producing anything, whether cars, software, whatever. No. Well why is that? Is it because of the shitty government? India's got a shitty government, but in a country of a billion you have a few million people with high enough IQ to compete globally for that stuff. In the Middle East first of all you get paid no matter what if you are a local so you don't have to compete, and secondly your average IQ is 80 so very few people among you can do the work even if you had to. India has a similar average IQ, but a huge population so... and no free money so they can do it and have to do it.
A more general point is those without power get screwed in human civilization and power is usually bought with money and money is usually gotten through intelligence. There are many other ways to get power, for instance the Saudis acquired it through the US by exporting them oil. The US basically did everything for them and gave them a ton of money to f* the world over.
No there isn't. South Koreans are generally accepted to have one of the highest average IQs, but the South Korean GDP per capita is half that of the US.
We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11668203 and marked it off-topic.
That's your claim. I say that the catholic church ruled because it had a stranglehold on material power. It behaved as a cartel for monarchic control. The ideology of the catholic church never prevented challenges to its power that were heterodox, like the multiple antipopes that arose through the years. The ideology of a celibate clergy never stopped popes from siring children and placing them in power.
The catholic church declined because technology and economic activity developed into a system that could not be controlled by an entity like the church. Monarchies and the church became obsolete for material reasons, not the appearance of competing ideologies. The ideologies that came about were filling in the vacuum left by the church. A new social order had to be explained. Ideology is post-hoc.
That's my claim.
Ideology and social order go hand in hand, and even more so in Political situations and you have to be very oblivious to say that Islam is not an political religious ideology for most of the Middle East.
It is an important characteristic of ideology that it is symbolic: it means that multiple people can interpret it in different ways. Which interpretations are "correct"? The ones that conform to the underlying power structure. The power structure punishes "misinterpretations" and rewards "correct" interpretations.
Just as different start-ups have different ideologies because they have different power structures and economic relations, Islam in the Middle East is not a coherent political ideology. The Islam of Iran reflects the organization of its government, not the other way around. The Islam of Saudi Arabia reflects the organization of its government, not the other way around.
The Islam of Da'esh, which is considered heterodox by literally every other sect of Islam, is a reflection of its power structures.
The same signs and ideas reflect different physical realities. What drives the development of signs and ideas? The physical reality. Only the material can propagate ideology, and only the material that propagates itself succeeds in the long-run.
What use is it to say that "Islam is a political religious ideology for most of the Middle East"? What analytic and predictive power does this statement have?
Ok, sure. I can agree with that, but in my opinion it's a low-power assertion. Liberalism as an ideology allows imperialism and coups, too. Like the one that ousted the democratically elected prime minister of Iran and replaced him with the autocratic Shah.
There is nothing especially poisonous about Islam. The politics of the Middle East are largely driven by global capitalism, imperialism, and war. What has more political force? A cruise missile or a copy of the Quran?