Dimon compares bitcoin to tulip mania, predicting a collapse
Still, he says, it’s a good option for murderers, drug dealers
An unbiased, balanced outlook.
Meanwhile, fewer and fewer people can afford a whole coin.
I think now would be a nice time to buy. The best time is after a crash, so articles like this are usually a leading indicator that we may be bottoming out of the current slide.
Even if Bitcoin is nothing more than tulip mania, tulip mania caused a vast transfer of wealth. You won't lose if you don't play, but you won't win anything either.
If you think it's going to continue going down, put some money on that! It's pretty easy to put in a short sell and test your hypothesis. But people tend to ignore that.
Go to your bank, ask to speak with an investment specialist. Have then set up an automatic transfer every 2 weeks on your payday, to a Vanguard S&P 500 index fund.
>People put money into Bitcoin because it's simple to understand and to do.
If there are really people that are using Bitcoin as an investment because indexing isn't easy enough the situation is scarier than most people thought. Both because investing in index funds is very easy and because you have to be extremely bullish on Bitcoin to consider it more than a small percentage of your total retirement investments. If that really is the case then that's a reason to consider Bitcoin to be overpriced. The value is being propped up by the buying pressure of people who don't know how to do a simple stock purchase and have finally found a way to invest again after their experience with beanie babies.
Well, most people don't have any investment training whatsoever. And by "any," I mean "literally nothing." It's not something you learn in school, and it's not something your parents teach you.
Well, considering how many people got rich off of Bitcoin, they're not wrong.
I disagree that bubbles are dangerous to Bitcoin. It's just the opposite: Bitcoin is defined by bubbles. I still remember selling five Bitcoin at the peak of $32/coin and feeling smug because it crashed to ~$12 after.
That will happen, always. The world keeps turning. It doesn't matter if you ban it when people can participate via localbitcoins in person. So there doesn't appear to be any way for people to stop it or control it.
I agree that putting your retirement money into it is a bad idea, but there's a wide range between that and putting in $2.
Most people work at companies with 401K plans and HR goes over the nuts and bolts of the plan early on when you first can enroll and they ask questions of their coworkers who have the same program.
Bitcoin's value just tanked a whole bunch because China's halted trading at its cryptocurrency exchanges. I think it's plummeted by a good 20% or something in the last few days. People are guessing that the value of Bitcoin will come back up, so they think it's a good time to buy.
If enough people say it's a good time to buy then the price goes up. In reality there is never a good or bad time to buy into BTC. To say there is or isn't is speculation or manipulation in my opinion. But full disclosure, I think bitcoin is ripe with fraud and I don't see it having a long term future without it being regulated by some entity. Will it survive regulation?
No comments made about why Bitcoin is a fraud, just some lazy comparisons to past speculation bubbles.
That said, I'm not really sure why Bitcoin is growing so rapidly at the moment. Part of me wonders whether it's being fueled by a bidding war to become the top trader, to have greater control over pricing of the blockchain, but that's just idle speculation, I really have no idea. If the technical issues that hold back scaling were solved, then I could understand it, but at the moment the trading behaviour just looks bizarre.
I know it's been discussed to death, but whatever. I like talking about cryptocurrency. Satoshi acknowledged that Bitcoin's value would need to be bootstrapped by hope and self-fulfilling prophesy. That already succeeded. Now it's a rare, conserved commodity, that is digital, and can be transmitted around the globe. Seems valuable to me on that basis alone. Supply is essentially fixed. Demand is likely to increase. Speculation will continue to add significant volatility for the foreseeable future.
Or bitcoin happens to be eating into a market which wants to effect transfers of wealth between currencies and/or nations - something which wealthy clients might normally call up a large bank to handle... an example of automation eating (finance industry) jobs?
Meanwhile, JP Morgan is a big investor in Ethereum, has built Quorum, the private chain version of Ethereum and is a big player in the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance.
But Dimon probably still would say Ethereum is a fraud too, it's strongly implied by his Bitcoin comments. He's talking about the whole cryptocurrency market, not just Bitcoin.
1. There is no way governments will just let an unregulated currency take over in a meaningful way.
2. Thus, the current Bitcoin rally is simply speculation and is being driven up by those who will profit the most from it (which is fraudulent in the way the Tulip mania was fraudulent).
I get that he's the CEO of the horse and buggy company dismissing cars, but I don't think he was that tone deaf.
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[ 2.2 ms ] story [ 18.7 ms ] threadStill, he says, it’s a good option for murderers, drug dealers
An unbiased, balanced outlook.
Meanwhile, fewer and fewer people can afford a whole coin.
I think now would be a nice time to buy. The best time is after a crash, so articles like this are usually a leading indicator that we may be bottoming out of the current slide.
Even if Bitcoin is nothing more than tulip mania, tulip mania caused a vast transfer of wealth. You won't lose if you don't play, but you won't win anything either.
If you think it's going to continue going down, put some money on that! It's pretty easy to put in a short sell and test your hypothesis. But people tend to ignore that.
Emphasis on "simple." People put money into Bitcoin because it's simple to understand and to do. The volatility is the tradeoff.
If there are really people that are using Bitcoin as an investment because indexing isn't easy enough the situation is scarier than most people thought. Both because investing in index funds is very easy and because you have to be extremely bullish on Bitcoin to consider it more than a small percentage of your total retirement investments. If that really is the case then that's a reason to consider Bitcoin to be overpriced. The value is being propped up by the buying pressure of people who don't know how to do a simple stock purchase and have finally found a way to invest again after their experience with beanie babies.
Also, Bitcoin isn't investing. It's speculation. But everyone knows that.
By creating a bubble that bursts and drains all confidence from it.
>Also, Bitcoin isn't investing. It's speculation.
All the more reason for people that don't even know what index investing is to stay well away from bitcoin.
>But everyone knows that.
I've seen plenty of people defending bitcoin as an investment.
I disagree that bubbles are dangerous to Bitcoin. It's just the opposite: Bitcoin is defined by bubbles. I still remember selling five Bitcoin at the peak of $32/coin and feeling smug because it crashed to ~$12 after.
That will happen, always. The world keeps turning. It doesn't matter if you ban it when people can participate via localbitcoins in person. So there doesn't appear to be any way for people to stop it or control it.
I agree that putting your retirement money into it is a bad idea, but there's a wide range between that and putting in $2.
As far as I know there's nothing special about 1.0 coin.
That said, I'm not really sure why Bitcoin is growing so rapidly at the moment. Part of me wonders whether it's being fueled by a bidding war to become the top trader, to have greater control over pricing of the blockchain, but that's just idle speculation, I really have no idea. If the technical issues that hold back scaling were solved, then I could understand it, but at the moment the trading behaviour just looks bizarre.
Loved his past employer's take. https://twitter.com/agurevich23/status/907692985424371712
"You have to have an open mind to be able to see the future"
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jan/07/jp-morgan-b...
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/19/business/dealbook/jpmorga...
https://consumerist.com/2016/01/05/jpmorgan-chase-fined-48-m...
But Dimon probably still would say Ethereum is a fraud too, it's strongly implied by his Bitcoin comments. He's talking about the whole cryptocurrency market, not just Bitcoin.
1. There is no way governments will just let an unregulated currency take over in a meaningful way.
2. Thus, the current Bitcoin rally is simply speculation and is being driven up by those who will profit the most from it (which is fraudulent in the way the Tulip mania was fraudulent).
I get that he's the CEO of the horse and buggy company dismissing cars, but I don't think he was that tone deaf.