113 comments

[ 5.0 ms ] story [ 208 ms ] thread
What a pity they did not call it Rama ;-)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rendezvous_with_Rama

Came here for that comment!
Would be interesting if it changed course.
"interesting" is an understatement. We'd instantly have a new space/weapon race.
I think it's a shame that this story hasn't gotten more attention.

True, it doesn't tell us as much about the nature of the universe as the discovery of the Higgs boson, and it doesn't represent a major advance in engineering like gravitational wave detection. But it is the only chance we have ever had to directly view a largeish piece of another solar system, just millions of miles away. The next time probably won't come until we send a probe to Proxima Centauri.

To me, the thought of an asteroid being hurled out of the solar system that created it, then traveling through the cold void for millions or possibly billions of years, and then whipping around the sun (a mere 0.25 AU distant) is just the most incredible thing. The whole world should be having parties in its honor, to wish it well as it leaves us behind. (Instead of just fighting each other over nothing, as we usually do.)

This is an amazing time to be alive.

You might like the book Rendezvous with Rama.
I liked the whole Rama series. When I heard of the suggested dimensions of this object, I immediately thought of Rama.
Everything in threes.
It might not tell us as much about the nature of the universe, but good observations of this and future visitors could tell us a lot about the nature of other solar systems. So far we've generally assumed that solar systems are pretty similar in how they form, without much evidence beyond a few simple models; seeing debris from other solar systems could do a lot to confirm or refute that hypothesis.
> The next time probably won't come until we send a probe to Proxima Centauri.

Well, I don't know about that. Who's to say how many interstellar objects pass through the solar system every year (earlier I read 1-10 a year, but who knows). Of course this is the first one we've actually detected (Roswell et al. jokes here), but our sensors and technology are only getting better. Even if Breakthrough Starshot[1] can launch in 10 years, and takes 25 years to get to the Alpha Centauri system, and we get usable data back in 4.37 years, that's ~40 years we'd have in which to detect another interstellar object here first.

EDIT: Also see the sibling comment[2] by nkurz[3].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breakthrough_Starshot

[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15746491

[3] https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=nkurz

Breakthrough Starshot could use I1/Oumuamua as a test object once they got some prototypes ready:

After 8 years Oumuamua will be 6.64 billion km away (at 26.32km/s). A Starshot prototype probe flying at 1500km/s (0.5% of lightspeed c) could reach that distance in 51 days.

Starshot hopes to achieve 20% c eventually.

Oh yea, I was going to mention this; thanks for the reminder.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua#Potential_space...

> The Initiative for Interstellar Studies (i4is) has studied potential options for sending a spacecraft to 1I/ʻOumuamua, perhaps using first a Jupiter flyby followed by a close solar flyby at 3 solar radii in order to take advantage of the Oberth effect. More advanced options of using solar, laser electric, and laser sail propulsion, based on Breakthrough Starshot technology, are also considered. The problem is to get to the asteroid in a reasonable amount of time (and so at a reasonable distance from Earth), and yet be able to gain useful scientific information. If the craft goes too fast, it would not be able to get into orbit or land on the asteroid and would simply fly by it, moving at many asteroid diameters per second. The authors conclude that, although challenging, an encounter mission would be feasible using near-term technology.

Of course once 0.05c Starshot becomes feasible, there's a whole solar system to explore!

Sure, it will zip past a 500m object in a fraction of a second. Then again it will also zip by a planet in less than a second at 60,000km/s (20% c). They might as well solve that problem in the next 8 years.
But it is the only chance we have ever had to directly view a largeish piece of another solar system, just millions of miles away. The next time probably won't come until we send a probe to Proxima Centauri.

While this is the only one we've seen so far, the current belief is that similar objects might actually quite common. A parallel newspaper article in the Guardian [1] cites a paper out of UCLA [2], and works through the math:

  The other group of astronomers, led by David Jewitt,
  University of California Los Angeles, estimated how 
  many other interstellar visitors like it there might
  be in our solar system.

  Surprisingly, they calculate that another 10,000 could
  be closer to the Sun than the eighth planet, Neptune,
  which lies 30 times further from the Sun than the Earth.
  Yet these are currently undetected.

  Each of these interstellar interlopers would be just
  passing through. They are travelling too fast to be
  captured by the gravity of the Sun. Yet it still takes
  them about a decade to cross our solar system and
  disappear back into interstellar space.

  If this estimate is correct, then roughly 1,000 enter
  and another 1,000 leave every year – which means that
  roughly three arrive and three leave every day.
So now that we now to look for them, it may be possible that we'll be able to find others, at least before the probe reports back from Proxima Centauri.

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/science/across-the-universe/2017...

[2] http://www2.ess.ucla.edu/~jewitt/papers/2017/JLR17.pdf

Would it still be travelling too fast to be captured if it hit the sun directly?
It would cease to exist in that case...
Is something technically captured by a gravity well if it just happens to hit the object at the center? I assume not.
At the very least, I'd say that... after collision, assuming complete coalescence into the object, they will share identical orbital parameters
No, but that's exceedingly unlikely. Even the sun is a very tiny target.
> So now that we now to look for them, it may be possible that we'll be able to find others, at least before the probe reports back from Proxima Centauri.

To me this is the most exciting part of the discovery. Previous research was quite pessimistic about our ability to observe these kinds of interstellar comets[1]. Finding the few interstellar comets among the many objects within our solar system requires effort and specialized methods. Since our previous estimates indicated that we would not be able to observe many of these interstellar comets, it did not seem like looking for them was worth the effort. Now that has changed.

Since previous estimates indicated that this discovery should not have been likely, we can be reasonably sure that previous estimates were incorrect. Meaning it now seems worth the effort to begin looking for them.

With the LSST[2] coming online in the next year or so, our ability to observe such objects will be dramatically improved over current telescopes including Pan-STARRS which discovered this one.

[1] (Disclaimer: I am an author of a previous paper which concluded that these kinds of discoveries would be nearly impossible with current telescopes. Never have I been more happy to be wrong) My paper along with several others are referenced in the Nature letter.

[2] https://www.lsst.org/

Seems very similar to when they found the first exoplanets. The first few were big news, and now they are routine.
SO worked with Dave and his lab while in grad school. On this stuff, Dave is right, trust him.

On most meteorite and asteroid science in the field, take it all with a grain of salt. There's not much data and they are pretty 'dark' as objects (low albeido, low mass/gravity, long periods, very tiny in a telescope, etc). Mostly, they are guessing at stuff. It's kinda funny how worked up they get over pretty much no data (as compared to other astro disciplines).

That said, extra-solar objects are super cool, bust mostly from an isotopic % standpoint. We then infer a lot from that stuff.

If so many are passing through, and have been doing so for millions/billions of years, then at least a few thousand must have been captured. Line up the right planet and even a high-inclination object can be slowed enough to be trapped. It would be an interesting exercise to calculate what percentage of high-inclination objects might actually be alien.
it's a shame that this story hasn't gotten more attention.

I am the average person when it comes to this subject. It is just that we (the avg people) do not understand what this means.

What it means is that we are a tiny speck of dust floating on a tiny rock in space and an object that has come from a distance that is so far away numbers wouldn't do it justice has just flew by earth closer than the distance between the earth and sun (1 AU). Some quick facts (from wikipedia), 100 years ago it was 561 AU away (Neptune is ~30 AU), its max speed was 196,000mph and when discovered it was going 'only' 100,000mph. Space/Astronomy is a beautiful thing when it comes to relative perspective to us humans.
Could this be the first of a series of "objects" to come our way? Part of a large ejection of some sort?
While considering the exotic, how about a test of our response time? We didn’t see it until it was past us.
(comment deleted)
what upsets me most is that I dont think I'll be around by time we get the technology and funding to capture one of these things and study/learn from it
Elongated is not a very natural shape for rocks in space. It is going to get real interesting if this thing starts slowing down.
Already passed the Sun.
Which means it is in fact slowing down as it climbs out of the Sun's gravity well. It's just not the kind of slowing down that parent was hoping for.
I don't think we earthlings are constantly watching every corner of our solar system.
"This artist's concept shows [...]"

F you artists concept. Drawing fantasy pictures in news messages is not ok.

+ I'm no grammar guy, nor a native speaker, but "artists's" is wrong, isn't it?

Artist’s is fine (“artist his”), artists’s would be artists’. Depends on how many people worked on the art piece :)
For the record, the expansion "... his" is considered "folk etymology": a reanalysis from the Early Modern English period in the language's history. Notice for example how it doesn't make sense for feminine words: "Mary's house".

In fact, the possessive "'s" is a leftover from Old English, where the inflectional suffix "es" marked the genitive case.

Yeah it's a mnemonic device, nonetheless quite useful to explain the rule.
>Drawing fantasy pictures in news messages is not ok.

You are aware that astronomers and universities and even NASA regularly collaborate with such artists to create photorealistic simulations of planets, moons, and similar objects, and that lots of information and striving for accuracy goes into making those pictures right?

Plus, when they say "artist" they don't mean they asked some Picasso to make a drawing of the object for art's sake, but tasked someone (graphic designer etc) to make a realistic depiction of it given the data they know.

Not sure what "realistic" means? Has he been there?

People take away this artistic images and believe the world is like this, but it isn't. Same with WW2 movies, people believe war is like in these movies, it isn't. But in one case it's hollywood, in the other case it's a news outlet.

How close to earth did it pass ? A possible extinction event just flew bye and there where nothing we could do about. Btw, that looks like a gravity assist/slingshot ...
0.16 AU, according to the paper.
For comparison, the Earth's radius is 0.00004 AU. This is like a mosquito passing your car at a closest distance of 2 miles.
~395 earth-moon distances away and 1/20th the size of the object that killed the dinosaurs
1/20th the size, but 4 time the speed. Assuming the density of the 2 objects were the same, and because energy is proportional to the square of speed, it would cary a similar amount of energy.
...but I still have mosquitos hitting my windshield. Hopefully there are not many more objects like that asteroid inbound...
We aren't able to do much about the ongoing anthropocene extinction event either.
I recommend anyone interested read the paper which is available as a preprint from Nature (for the moment): goo.gl/cSsHoj (link shortened due to having an embedded access token).

Some tantalizing points from the paper:

- They constrained the aspect ratio in two dimensions to be 10:1:C, but the third dimension is unconstrained. Depending on which axis the object is rotating around, C could either be 1, or 20. Either of these would be an essentially unique object within the solar system. This is a really weird shape.

- If the object is rotating around its short axis, it must have internal tensile strength (ie, it's a solid object, not just a pile of dust/gravel accreted by gravity). Lower bound on the required tensile strength is 3 Pascal (very little).

- There is essentially no dust/ice on the object - less than 1 kg within 2.5". So it's not a comet, and would have to be asteroidal. This conflicts with our current understanding of what objects would be in interstellar space. Current models have almost all objects ejected from our system being icy comets. This object would be analogous to a Manx comet, ie a rocky asteroid in a highly elliptical long period orbit.

- The shape of the observed light curve deviates from the best-fit triaxial ellipsoid in a way that suggests large flat or concave sections. It would take unrealistically large albedo variations to produce the same deviation without flat/concave sections.

And of course, of all the planets in the solar system, it made its closest approach to Earth, an astronomical "near miss" at just 0.16 AU :)

And of course, of all the planets in the solar system, it made its closest approach to Earth, an astronomical "near miss" at just 0.16 AU

That is presumably because there’re lots of these objects, but we can only detect the ones closest to us.

The authors estimate that there is ~1 such object within 1 AU of the sun at any given time. So, more common than we previously expected, but not exactly teeming. You're right that it was detected due to its nearness though - it was picked up in a routine near-Earth object survey by Pan-STARRS
If there is one within 1 AU of the Sun at any given time, then there are ~10^16 of them within a sphere out to the nearest star. I'll leave it to you to decide whether that's teeming or not.
Dr. Denneau, what an honor that you dropped by this comment thread! Congratulations on the publication, it's a truly groundbreaking discovery :) 10^16 is pretty mindbogglingly huge, but then again so is 4 light years...
Surely they're more dense near the sun? Not sure you can assume a uniform spacing and not account for the gravitational attraction. But I'm sure you know more about this than I do.
If they're not being captured, they're just being perturbed by the sun a bit, not collected.
1 within 1 AU of the sun means that there should be one passing within 0.16 AU of us on a ~yearly basis.
- strange aspect ratio

- tensile strength (it should be cartwheeling, there is a physics theorem which means everything tends to this configuration)

- large flat or concave sections.

- others are reporting it's mostly metallic.

I'll say it: did anyone consider an alien spaceship? The paper seems to deduce "asteroidal" by ruling out other things, rather than by a positive measurement of rock spectra, unless I've misread it.

Co-author here. We obtained spectroscopic measurements of 'Oumuamua, and its surface closely matches D-type asteroids and comet nuclei, which are dark, reddish and organic-rich.
>organic-rich.

So you're saying it's a bio-ship! ldenneau confirms it's aliens!

Of course an asteroid, hollowed out somewhat, makes for a good spaceship. Especially if you're trying to be covert.

Perhaps someone has discovered warp drives (is gravitational wave detection the first step) and the Federation have sent a ship to observe us.

If you wanted to disguise a probe, it seems the ideal form would be a black body, not to disguise it as an asteroid, I would guess. Unless they're playing mind games.

Anyways, given all the EM radiation we're tossing out into the void, some species' probe out there is going to pick up our existence sooner or later.

And at ~395 earth-moon distances it's difficult to imagine how effective a 400-meter object, disguised as an asteroid, would be at seeing much detail on earth.

But it is tantalizing and fun to imagine--the appearance of a gravity boost... Flat surfaces... Near to earth... Lack of any ice or outgasing, a solid object, many characteristics not seen in other known-asteroids, rotating on its long axis... :)

> And at ~395 earth-moon distances it's difficult to imagine how effective a 400-meter object, disguised as an asteroid, would be at seeing much detail on earth.

Ah, but it's a carrier for the small, stealthy probes!

(comment deleted)
Gravitational wave detection is nowhere near the first step to any sort of warp drive. In fact it is looking the like the nail in the warp drive coffin. I, and no doubt many others here, was hoping the new detectors would be picking up all sorts of tiny wave sources buzzing around us, a civilization of warp drives just beyond our previous limits of observation. But no, no tiny warp signatures. We are still alone. If ET is in our local galaxy he isn't using warp drives, only reducing their possibility.
Too bad we don't have a radar image! It would have been awesome to see the shape of this in Arecibo hi resolution dopler/delay.
The spectroscopy seems pretty normal, but the shape is kinda freaking me out. If there were a single other object we'd ever seen which looks like this, that'd be different. But this seems really unique.

Is there a point where you, as a sober professional, start to entertain outlandish theories about something like this? Has this crossed that threshold?

" its surface closely matches D-type asteroids and comet nuclei"

That's what they want you to think!

I doubt that any scientist working in academia would make such a claim. Career suicide, unless you're right and it's confirmed. Scientists tend to be a lot more cautious in their statements, unless they're looking for funding...
An object that has 3 different dimensions suffers from Polhode motion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polhode

So maybe we can expect it to spin (and/or see it doesn't and speculate on the reasons for that)

To quench curiosity, I wonder if someone with more knowledge here could give the probability that this object is be spinning, stable, about its axis with smaller moment of inertia?
I thought the shape was a bit weird also. Most objects that we see are more like a rock but this is like a rod.
If there're a lot of these objects entering and leaving solar system every year, and suppose some day in the near future we can keep track of them all, can we use them for us to send out larger probes? We see a rock coming near us, and send out a probe to its path. And before the collision the probe create a buffer object at the rear end so that it wouldn't be totally destroyed. After that the probe can free ride for a while at a high speed and re-ignite when it decides to go a separate path.
There is no benefit to this I'm afraid. To take a ride on it you first have to match velocities, so you've already done the work to chase it down. Gravity assist maneuvers are the best option we currently have for launching probes into interstellar space: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_assist
Hmm, accelerating such probe to the speed of the fastest man-made object ever made, Voyager 1 (17km/s), and using a 1-kilometer buffer object with linear acceleration with the asteroid (26km/s) we get >4,000gs.

What about elastic bands 100s of kms long? Probably no material strong enough, elastic or not.

Not sure about a buffer object, but a tether on a reel might work.

You harpoon the object, then let it pull the probe, giving lots of slack according to the engineering tolerances of the harpoon in the object (don't want it to come loose), the tether (don't want it to snap), the reel (don't want it to spin apart or get stuck or any one of a number of things), and the probe (don't want it damaged under extreme acceleration).

With enough tether and a low-enough-friction reel with magnetic bearings (think of the ungodly RPMs), you can accelerate the probe at almost any speed you'd like, within reason, although it would be best to accelerate as quickly as possible without risking. And remember that you only need to get the whole harpoon/tether/reel (HTR, or HiTchhikeR; you saw it here first) mechanism in range of the object as it passes by, so it can be bulkier than you would put on a probe moving under its own power. Or you could start off as usual, maybe with a gravity assist, which would allow for a less sophisticated HTR.

Then if you want to be clever, you can turn all those RPMs into stored energy. But that might not be worth the trouble.

Might be possible, but the tensile strength required may be beyond our material science capabilities.

A harpoon impacting an object going 26km/s would experience something like 12,000gs even if you gave it a 1km-long buffer.

So your harpoon would have to be rocket-assisted. The problem now is how long does your need to be? The tensile strength to carry the weight of the tether itself may make this impossible.

> Might be possible, but ... may be beyond our material science capabilities.

Certainly, for now and a while to come.

Perhaps some ultra-lightweight probe using some sophisticated ultra-strong elastic tethers may be a way to accelerate an object at an orders of magnitude greater speed using asteroids as counter-weights. Probably nothing strong-enough, though.
I think the twisting of the body may also cause problems for the tether.
What was its speed at closest sun approach? Because the speed of objects in our solar system are all very low compared to the speed of the nearest solar system compared to our sun, I imagine this could also be the fastest object ever to be obversed in our solar system.
I don't get the excitement. I thought it's common that stones of different sizes enter our solar system take a loop and exit again. That's exactly what this tourist plans on doing, or not? What's different?
Yes but this is the first observed instance of a stone that seems to come from outside the solar system and outside the Oort Cloud even, so basically from interstellar space. And its shape and albedo or unusual too, seemingly.
(comment deleted)
Now, what if it turns out to be an alien ship?
Did anyone check if it is rotating and at the right rpm to produce planetary gravity inside?
(comment deleted)
I thought "deep space" was intergalactic space, the really big void. But if the object came from within the Milky Way itself, it came from a rather busy place -- speaking in Universe terms.
Forget about going to Mars, making a probe riding these things will be much more interesting.
I just recently read (well, listened to) Pushing Ice (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pushing_Ice) which is along these lines. Fantastic story for anyone that likes hard sci fi, it starts off with a moon of saturn suddenly breaking out of orbit and the crew being sent on an intercept mission.
Very interesting! So all known "stuff floating around in our solarsystem" like Hale-Bopp et al have been deemed originating from here? Or have that conclusion just been taken for granted?

Edit:

Looked at the paper and saw this in the abstract:

>None of the approximately 750,000 known asteroids and comets is thought to have originated outside our Solar System, but formation models suggest that orbital migration of the giant planets ejected a large fraction of the original planetesimals into interstellar space1.

Very interesting that this has been the thought of affairs for objects in our solar system. I have never contemplated it and just assumed we must have been visited before by such objects.

It’s apparently to do with the orbit - they identified this as extrasolar purely by the fact its orbit would be extremely unlikely to have arisen from our solar system’s protoplanetary disk.
(comment deleted)
Wish Carl Sagan were still alive.
Could we ever use a net to stick a probe to one and get a free trip out of the solar system?
I think that because it is moving so fast the net would have to be accelerated significantly so that it wouldn't just tear through the net.

Plus there's the issue of actually getting into position in time to setup all the maneuvers required to match the speed.

i'm surprised there aren't more things entering our solar system from deep space considering how large the universe is
The first thought looking at the picture -- it could be interstellar probe created by some alien race. Rotation and metal body -- something to think about. This reminds me "The Dark Forest Theory" described in the fantastic trilogy "The Three-Body Problem" by Cixin Liu [1] -- Chinese Isaac Asimov. Really great read in case you didn't read it yet.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Three-Body-Problem-Cixin-Liu/dp/07653...