This might actually be the best summary I’ve seen: includes the map, statistics, and highlights of most recent news. Take note BBC, NBC, NYTimes, Fox, etc!
I think this Baidu map is updated faster as they have access to more China news compared to any Western news outlet. But they lag behind a bit for the international count. This link works mostly fine with Google auto translate.
https://voice.baidu.com/act/newpneumonia/newpneumonia
Then why so small number of people get infected outside of China? I can hardly believe no case of infection could get unnoticed and not isolated successfully so far.
> Then why so small number of people get infected outside of China?
Because we won't no how many people are infected today for a couple of weeks, it has an up to 14 day incubation period (and appears to be contagious during the incubation period.)
Also the numbers are growing rapidly, especially in places with lots of contact with China.
> I can hardly believe no case of infection could get unnoticed and not isolated successfully so far.
A lot of negatives there but, yes, cases in the incubation period are likely to go unnoticed, since no symptoms exist.
Then it intuitively seems there already are many people infected all over the world and we can't really prevent the infection from spreading, the measures being taken are futile. Brace yourself, buy grocery supplies and prepare your immune systems - start sleeping enough, eating healthy etc now.
Not even joking I quit drinking and started eating healthier as I followed this. I have been watching and reading since it was a few hundred confirmed cases and I think it will become a very large outbreak.
Having enough sleep is the most important thing AFAIK. You should also make sure you get enough vitamins and other micronutrients - vitamin supplements are popularly overrated as a cure but this doesn't mean they're useless: they don't really cure but their deficit (and you can hardly expect you are not deficient in any) certainly weakens the immune system. Another interesting thing I have recently found out about is l.reutrti (BioGaia Gastrus) yogurt - it boosts respiratory immunity by increasing histamine.
It's not really a couple of weeks at this point... it's just after the 6th or so. That's the end of incubation period for people who would have been infected before the Chinese govt. quarantined Wuhan.
New infected after that point will be from person to person contact with infected travelers prior to the quarantine. That's when we'll find out how many people caught the virus that we don't know about, and therefore how many have been spreading it without knowing.
In my city (Lviv, Ukraine), number of viral pneumonia cases is jumped by 4x since Jan 26, but we have no test kits to confirm kind of virus they caused by. They can be caused by regular influenza, as usual, or they can be caused by corona. Nobody knows yet. :-/
"Two people who returned from China were hospitalized in Lviv with signs of ARD (acute respiratory disease)" (1)
"Last week, nearly 13,000 people became ill in the Lviv region with influenza and SARS" (2)
Primarily among kids and young adults, in the article they say the weather is especially conducive to the spread of the flu right now; I wouldn't automatically link it to the virus in China...
Indeed! The original article says ГРВІ which is a local abbreviation of acute respiratory viral infection and a typical label for any viral cold-like illness.
Now is a peak of flue / cold season in Ukraine, so there is nothing unusual. Some people are just panicky.
4x increase of viral pneumonia cases over previous year is worth to investigate. It looks like it caused by H1N1 (Swine Flu), which is much less worse than Corona-virus, but still worse than regular flu.
> In my city (Lviv, Ukraine), number of viral pneumonia cases is jumped by 4x since Jan 26, but we have no test kits to confirm kind of virus they caused by.
AFAIK you are going to have them by tomorrow (5th of Feb). WHO cares (pun intended).
Probably because of the precautions taken. It's like the old tale of "Why do we need IT support dept. if your system never breaks down?". Precautions probably helped containing the virus, not the other way around that we don't need to take precautions.
It's difficult to say whether attempts at containment are failing.
For example, Wuhan has a population of 11 million. This leaves a lot of scope for the number of new cases to grow while still being contained geographically.
Considering the incubation period, we need to wait until the end of the week or next week to see how things go. With the stringent measures they have taken there should be an inflection sooner or later.
Roughly 4 million people left Wuhan over the new year. The stringent measures they are now taking are too little too late. See for example the very slow rate at which border crossing points in Hong Kong are being closed.
Yes, but it is the same for total number infected. Outside estimates are that there are more than 100k infected. That would put the mortality rate ~= the flu.
You need to account for the delay to death in your model here. People don't die the second they're infected. Most of the people in that estimated infected number were infected in the last week. They couldn't possibly have died of the disease. I believe most epidemiological models have a infection to death delay factor to estimate death rate. Your mortality rate with ~300/100k~=flu is too low.
deaths due to flu are overestimated in western world as those are mainly due to flu striking after patient is going through some other illness and flu was the final blow.
Current estimates (based on official, massively undercounted figures) suggest that 2019-nCoV is both more infectious (higher R_0) and has a higher fatality rate. So not really, no. If your estimate is ~100k infected, don't assume that your number of deaths is the same either.
Consider also that fatality rate depends on demographic and access to healthcare. That second factor is highly dependent on how stressed the health service is. So if you're lucky enough to live somewhere with both high quality healthcare and low infection rate, then your chances of dying will be lower. Not everyone is so lucky. This is why measuring fatality rates outside of China can be misleading as an indicator of what the true fatality rate might be.
With flu / colds, my understanding is that it's typically milder mutations which end up thriving, as the milder the symptoms, the more likely people are to try to carry on with their normal lives rather than isolating themselves (and thus infect more people).
But entire populations don't mutate at once. If a virulent strain is active in thousands of people, it's going to be quite a while before the full impact of that epidemic is felt.
Oh, sure; I only meant to say, that normally the "evolutionary pressure" is for mutations to be less dangerous, rather than more dangerous. If anything, we should be hoping for those sorts of mutations.
This virus is not effecting everyone with the same intensity. A 10 year child didn't get sick but his Grand parents and parents did. His parents got him tested for Wuhan Virus anyway as they were scared about it and he tested positive for it. We will really find out how far this virus has spread by end of Feb.
We could also get hit by an asteroid tomorrow and most life on Earth wiped out, guess that isn't newsworthy though. Hope people are worried about that danger, despite all the effort put in we routinely can't detect dangerous objects that come near Earth. Scary stuff.
How many people have died outside China from this virus again? Is it zero? Last I looked it was zero human beings have died outside of China, perhaps I'm wrong.
So you're saying that the people who die in China don't matter… no big deal, as long as it's not happening in my country.
Pandemics don't care about borders, anyways. There's a very high probability this will spread outside China even with all the drastic measures we've taken.
In no way saying they don't matter. I'm saying it's overblown and ridiculous how scared people are, most media outlets have running 24 hour coverage of any snippet they can scrounge up.
The authorities are taking care of it incredibly well, my main point was keep calm and carry on. Of course it will spread elsewhere in greater numbers, may even rival some rare ailments for deaths. Catching pneumonia is bad for everyone. A marginally higher risk of catching it isn't anything to stress about.
Would you like to talk about the 5000 people who died on the roads in China last week alone? Because I would. Do their lives matter as much here? It's far more tragic given that nearly all of them weren't suffering pre-existing conditions.
This is giant global experiment in human ability to logically discern risk and we seemed to have failed dramatically.
“I think we’re going to start seeing secondary spread in the United States in the next two or three weeks,” said Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner.
The outbreak is being handled very well through the Chinese planned economy. Despite this, Western media is intensifying the panic. As a result of it, Chinese people are being discriminated against worldwide.
> The outbreak is being handled very well through the Chinese planned economy.
It may (or may not) be being handled as well as any government could, but its not being effectively contained, it has spread around the world, and it is continuing to spread.
> Despite this, Western media is intensifying the panic.
Western media is accurately reporting the facts, and the policy responses. Intense concern is appropriate.
> As a result of it, Chinese people are being discriminated against worldwide.
How? Some places have adopted or are preparing precautions directed at travelers entering from China (which is a different, though overlapping, set from "Chinese people"), but that's a reasonable step given that it is neither contained nor, in the very short term, containable by China, by the facts that the Chinese state has acknowledged (transmissibility during incubation period, number of people who traveled out of the effective area before any containment was in place, etc.)
The only part of that that has to do with racism seems as likely to be existing racism adopting references to current events than any acceleration of it. The avoiding of shops in a Chinatown may be an overreaction, but there's no necessarily racist motivation, and in any case the idea that factual news about matters of current interest ought to be suppressed because some people might overreact in that way is ludicrous.
How is wanting to contain the spread of an exponentially expanding virus racist?
As far as punitive actions against a country, the world is taking a relatively light approach to China especially when one factors in their treatment of the Uyghurs. They have placed an entire ethnic minority into concentration camps for reprogramming. That's racism.
> They have placed an entire ethnic minority into concentration camps for reprogramming.
Do you have any proof of this? All Western media has been able to produce is a few pictures of some buildings which could contain at most a few hundred people.
Thank you for the link. Regardless to how true it actually is, indeed it always is essential to look at the other side's story. I haven't had such an opportunity yet.
China went from <300 confirmed cases to 17k in two weeks. The actual number is probably 3-5x bigger as only a % of total cases are confirmed. And that's in spite of China taking very hardline measures including a travel ban affecting 50m people. Countries like the US probably can't take those kinds of strict measures.
The world is so interconnected now that once a virus like this gets a small foothold, it's very, very hard to contain. And it's unlikely there were be any vaccine for it for at least 12-18 months.
That means there's a good chance this turns into a world-wide epidemic that will kill millions or more over the next year. Even with it's relatively low death rate (1-2%), if it ends up infecting 100s of millions of people, that's millions dead.
Because yesterday there was 60 deaths, a 20% jump over the previous day. At this rate, it'll become way more deadlier than the Flu in only a few days. Considering that around 700 persons world-wide die from the flu everyday and these deaths are happening mainly in Wuhan, this virus is certainly a very deadly one.
Because of how outbreaks and pandemics normally progress. Essentially they run like a video game with horrible lag - you don't really see the results of what you do to contain them until one or more incubation periods for the disease have passed.
The first major action taken by the Chinese government was to quarantine Wuhan. Prior to that, people were traveling freely to other places for the lunar holiday. We're about to reach the end of the incubation period (by the 6th) for people who were infected prior to the quarantine being established.
That means if the quarantine of Wuhan contained the outbreak (it's looking less and less likely that it did) we should see some change in the rate of infection in China. That's going to be difficult because of the Chinese government.
The flip side of the incubation period ending is that after that point, all new cases should be from people traveling who infected other people. So far, almost all the people who are in quarantine world wide were physically in Wuhan.
We don't know yet how many people who have been infected by travelers there are because we haven't hit the end of the post-quarantine incubation period.
At present, there could be people all over the world who are infected, don't have symptoms or only mild symptoms, are contagious and spreading the disease, and who won't be discovered as carriers for another week.
This week is going to be telling... we may suddenly see a massive uptick in infected outside China (and outside quarantines elsewhere), and if we do it's likely that it's too late to contain the virus, all we can do is limit its spread somewhat and treat the infected.. world wide.
If it's really out of containment, given its apparent level of contagiousness it's likely that eventually a significant percentage of all humans alive right now will catch it, and that 2-3% of those people will die - quite possibly a lot more since the numbers of infected are going to overwhelm health care systems worldwide... too many people won't get treated even in western countries. In the third world, in places where people are packed together in slums and large cities, it'll be far worse.
For your consideration, if the virus only spreads through China and India, and if e.g. 20% of the people become infected, that means something like 13.6 million people could die, and the rest of us will be dealing with the impact to health care systems, reduced food production, lost wages, reduced military strength and attendant weaknesses in defense, and a host of other problems.
So... this virus is rather concerning, not because it kills lots of people (although it can) but because we likely can't control it, and even the number of people it will kill is far too many, and the rest of us are going to be dealing with the consequences for years.
Because 10 days ago the estimated # of cases was, while probably fudged lower by China, about 300. Now it's, as of this comment, about 17,000. If that number is underreported to the same magnitude, it's even more of a huge issue. Then consider that the symptoms mimic, at least for a time, cold/flu symptoms, and it's not hard to see how it could go undetected in an even larger group of people. Or not, but it's absolutely possible, hence the enormous scale of the reaction and precautions being taken. It's not panic, it's prudence. well, maybe it's also some level of panic, but I wouldn't say it's an over reaction. This is the sort of thing where I way more effort than actually required is a significant virtue as compared to even slightly less than required.
GIGO - The numbers from China are a complete fiction - amazes me how gullible and slow the mainstream media has been to catch onto what has been really going on in China.
Peak Prosperity Videos are quite good at making sense of the sporadic info that does escape the China censors
https://youtu.be/P_3hNPTofEU
Huge crematoriums with 30 ovens each are running 24/7 to deal with the deaths - most estimates from citizen journalists are 10-15X official figures.
Most cases are not tested, they are sent home due to lack of capacity at hospitals also lack of test kits. Subsequent deaths are classified as respiratory complications not 2019-nCov.
See some criticisms of the methods and results in the comments. Interesting correlation of ACE2 to stress and high blood-pressure, so could be strongly affected by some treatments for hypertension.
It is just about possible, in some qualitative hand-waving way, that reducing susceptibility by 80% could drop R0 from 5 to 1, hence reduce the threat of an epidemic in other regions.
> We also noticed that the only Asian donor (male) has a much higher ACE2-expressing cell ratio than white and African American donors (2.50% vs. 0.47% of all cells). This might explain the observation that the new Coronavirus pandemic and previous SARS-Cov pandemic are concentrated in the Asian area.
the only Asian donor, n=1. It's too bold to claim that Asian men are the most susceptible group.
While the border between India and China may be long, it is sparsely populated. It’s not like the Canada-U.S. border, where the vast majority of Canadians live within a hundred miles of the border.
82 comments
[ 2.5 ms ] story [ 181 ms ] threadBecause we won't no how many people are infected today for a couple of weeks, it has an up to 14 day incubation period (and appears to be contagious during the incubation period.)
Also the numbers are growing rapidly, especially in places with lots of contact with China.
> I can hardly believe no case of infection could get unnoticed and not isolated successfully so far.
A lot of negatives there but, yes, cases in the incubation period are likely to go unnoticed, since no symptoms exist.
Alcohol kills viruses!
Didn't you pay attention to the Andromeda Strain documentary?
I plan on staying home and drinking heavily.
Does it? I'm actually curious if alcohol-based hand sanitizers should be used as an element in 2019-nCoV infection prevention.
New infected after that point will be from person to person contact with infected travelers prior to the quarantine. That's when we'll find out how many people caught the virus that we don't know about, and therefore how many have been spreading it without knowing.
"Two people who returned from China were hospitalized in Lviv with signs of ARD (acute respiratory disease)" (1)
"Last week, nearly 13,000 people became ill in the Lviv region with influenza and SARS" (2)
Primarily among kids and young adults, in the article they say the weather is especially conducive to the spread of the flu right now; I wouldn't automatically link it to the virus in China...
1: https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&... 2: https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&...
P.S. https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%93%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%80...
https://wz.lviv.ua/news/404392-likarni-ternopolia-perepovnen...
AFAIK you are going to have them by tomorrow (5th of Feb). WHO cares (pun intended).
For example, Wuhan has a population of 11 million. This leaves a lot of scope for the number of new cases to grow while still being contained geographically.
Considering the incubation period, we need to wait until the end of the week or next week to see how things go. With the stringent measures they have taken there should be an inflection sooner or later.
Maybe that's why.
SARS killed approx 800 in span of 1.5 year.
There are over 300 confirmed deaths from Corona roughly after 2 months.
The numbers are growing quickly and I for one am starting to feel a bit uncomfortable about this.
Edit: Its 360 deaths, that pretty much half od SARS now :/
Pure flu deaths are very low.
Consider also that fatality rate depends on demographic and access to healthcare. That second factor is highly dependent on how stressed the health service is. So if you're lucky enough to live somewhere with both high quality healthcare and low infection rate, then your chances of dying will be lower. Not everyone is so lucky. This is why measuring fatality rates outside of China can be misleading as an indicator of what the true fatality rate might be.
it also could mutate and change it's behavior.
With flu / colds, my understanding is that it's typically milder mutations which end up thriving, as the milder the symptoms, the more likely people are to try to carry on with their normal lives rather than isolating themselves (and thus infect more people).
We could also get hit by an asteroid tomorrow and most life on Earth wiped out, guess that isn't newsworthy though. Hope people are worried about that danger, despite all the effort put in we routinely can't detect dangerous objects that come near Earth. Scary stuff.
How many people have died outside China from this virus again? Is it zero? Last I looked it was zero human beings have died outside of China, perhaps I'm wrong.
Pandemics don't care about borders, anyways. There's a very high probability this will spread outside China even with all the drastic measures we've taken.
The authorities are taking care of it incredibly well, my main point was keep calm and carry on. Of course it will spread elsewhere in greater numbers, may even rival some rare ailments for deaths. Catching pneumonia is bad for everyone. A marginally higher risk of catching it isn't anything to stress about.
Would you like to talk about the 5000 people who died on the roads in China last week alone? Because I would. Do their lives matter as much here? It's far more tragic given that nearly all of them weren't suffering pre-existing conditions.
This is giant global experiment in human ability to logically discern risk and we seemed to have failed dramatically.
- https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/mayo-clinic-dr-gregory-polan...
It may (or may not) be being handled as well as any government could, but its not being effectively contained, it has spread around the world, and it is continuing to spread.
> Despite this, Western media is intensifying the panic.
Western media is accurately reporting the facts, and the policy responses. Intense concern is appropriate.
> As a result of it, Chinese people are being discriminated against worldwide.
How? Some places have adopted or are preparing precautions directed at travelers entering from China (which is a different, though overlapping, set from "Chinese people"), but that's a reasonable step given that it is neither contained nor, in the very short term, containable by China, by the facts that the Chinese state has acknowledged (transmissibility during incubation period, number of people who traveled out of the effective area before any containment was in place, etc.)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51348593
As far as punitive actions against a country, the world is taking a relatively light approach to China especially when one factors in their treatment of the Uyghurs. They have placed an entire ethnic minority into concentration camps for reprogramming. That's racism.
Do you have any proof of this? All Western media has been able to produce is a few pictures of some buildings which could contain at most a few hundred people.
At least look at the other side's story before you blindly believe everything capitalist media tells you. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u4cYE6E27_g
China went from <300 confirmed cases to 17k in two weeks. The actual number is probably 3-5x bigger as only a % of total cases are confirmed. And that's in spite of China taking very hardline measures including a travel ban affecting 50m people. Countries like the US probably can't take those kinds of strict measures.
The world is so interconnected now that once a virus like this gets a small foothold, it's very, very hard to contain. And it's unlikely there were be any vaccine for it for at least 12-18 months.
That means there's a good chance this turns into a world-wide epidemic that will kill millions or more over the next year. Even with it's relatively low death rate (1-2%), if it ends up infecting 100s of millions of people, that's millions dead.
The first major action taken by the Chinese government was to quarantine Wuhan. Prior to that, people were traveling freely to other places for the lunar holiday. We're about to reach the end of the incubation period (by the 6th) for people who were infected prior to the quarantine being established.
That means if the quarantine of Wuhan contained the outbreak (it's looking less and less likely that it did) we should see some change in the rate of infection in China. That's going to be difficult because of the Chinese government.
The flip side of the incubation period ending is that after that point, all new cases should be from people traveling who infected other people. So far, almost all the people who are in quarantine world wide were physically in Wuhan.
We don't know yet how many people who have been infected by travelers there are because we haven't hit the end of the post-quarantine incubation period.
At present, there could be people all over the world who are infected, don't have symptoms or only mild symptoms, are contagious and spreading the disease, and who won't be discovered as carriers for another week.
This week is going to be telling... we may suddenly see a massive uptick in infected outside China (and outside quarantines elsewhere), and if we do it's likely that it's too late to contain the virus, all we can do is limit its spread somewhat and treat the infected.. world wide.
If it's really out of containment, given its apparent level of contagiousness it's likely that eventually a significant percentage of all humans alive right now will catch it, and that 2-3% of those people will die - quite possibly a lot more since the numbers of infected are going to overwhelm health care systems worldwide... too many people won't get treated even in western countries. In the third world, in places where people are packed together in slums and large cities, it'll be far worse.
For your consideration, if the virus only spreads through China and India, and if e.g. 20% of the people become infected, that means something like 13.6 million people could die, and the rest of us will be dealing with the impact to health care systems, reduced food production, lost wages, reduced military strength and attendant weaknesses in defense, and a host of other problems.
So... this virus is rather concerning, not because it kills lots of people (although it can) but because we likely can't control it, and even the number of people it will kill is far too many, and the rest of us are going to be dealing with the consequences for years.
It's amusing to read how many people in the sub are buying ammo as their first priority.
Also -very maybe- the (rich) chinese are preparing their future secret extractions
Current estimated death rate is 15% (based on now slightly out-of-date Lancet articles).
Asian men are the most susceptible group.
Male / female infection rate currently about 3:1 (but based on low statistics).
Ratio of ACE2 cells in Asian men to Asian women is about 4:1.
Ratio of ACE2 cells in Asian men compared to whites or African-Americans is 5:1.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1....
See some criticisms of the methods and results in the comments. Interesting correlation of ACE2 to stress and high blood-pressure, so could be strongly affected by some treatments for hypertension.
It is just about possible, in some qualitative hand-waving way, that reducing susceptibility by 80% could drop R0 from 5 to 1, hence reduce the threat of an epidemic in other regions.
the only Asian donor, n=1. It's too bold to claim that Asian men are the most susceptible group.