There's no meaningful preparations for avoiding what is essentially a really dangerous variant of the common cold at an individual level.
Now governments and the medical field should be preparing for it. But most of that is logistical problems (e.g. number of hospital beds, preparing quarantine plans, test kits, etc).
You can order a bunch of masks if it makes you feel better, but countries with common mask usage are still seeing a large scale spread so YMMV.
The freaking panic is already starting in my country too. People buying up food in 10x the quantities than the usual shopping visit, etc..
I've gone shopping yesterday, when the virus was found in the country next to mine, to buy enough food for a week, just to avoid the inevitable initial panic that's starting today, when the first case appeared in my country.
It's not panic. It's reality. Many of us did the same. I went with 2 weeks worth of food, water and toiletries and we already have the usual stock which including refrigirated stuff should be enough for full month if needed. When you see small towns put into quarantine in Europe allowing people in and out only with 'written permission' you know you should prepare family and yourself asap. Get food, water, medicine and everything that might make life easier for you and your family during weeks of quarantine.
Well, I saw a lady who bought out a full cart of flour packages yesterday. There was last 1kg package of salt, and around 6 packages of flour left on the shelf. (normally there's ~200) Yes, it's not a generalized panic, but individual people like that can really screw up the shopping experience for others.
Is it panicking? Dunno, maybe she's just setting up a flour shop, or has 50 hungry necks to feed. But it was certainly unusual.
We regularly buy 10kg of flour because we have a bread maker. The last time I bought bread (not counting when on holiday) is 3.5 years ago. 10kg is enough for over a week.
My wife was in a pretty typical Walgreens today and noted that there was a sign in front saying that they didn't have any masks left and that they didn't know when they were going to get more. Inside, there were a number of sections besides masks that were completely empty.
This Walgreens is in Mountain View, a few miles from the main Google campus in California.
There is at least one preparation that you can take: Make sure you have enough (non quickly perishable) food and essentials such as tooth paste and toilet paper at home so you don't have to go out shopping if you are at home sick for a week.
It's not just if you get sick yourself. If your company closes down its offices and you have to stay at home you may want to minimize your shopping during that time as well.
Masks don't help because of low quality and people lack proper training... you shouldn't touch the mask, you shouldn't reuse it, you should properly dispose it, etc.
A saner advice is to wash your hands frequently and to avoid touching your face when in public. Because you can get this virus by touching infected surfaces and then touching your face. It doesn't seem to be an airborn virus, but it does survive on surfaces.
I cary a hand sanitizer for those moments in public when I feel the need to scratch my face :-)
Masks do help and you explained why. Its harder to touch your face, nose, lips when wearing a mask. So it does help fight the spread and getting yourself sick easier.
The "airborne" transmission in that link is what I believe is called "aerosol transmission", not airborne. Because it relies on liquid droplets in the air, and not actually able to transmit on something like dist in the air.
There is also transmission (actually the first one mentioned) "Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet)"--this does not mention liquid droplets at all, which is why I figured it to be airborne.
That's because many people are disgusting and don't give a fuck about proper hygiene. Just among my acquaintances I need both hands an a foot to count the number that don't even vaguely cover their mouth / nose -- let alone _properly_ cover -- while coughing or sneezing.
No amount of gentle reminder -> passive aggressive suggestion -> explicit suggestion had lasting effects on their behavior. All I could do is be vigilant and recluse myself from their company whenever one's clearly showing symptoms.
The number of people I've seen 'properly' covering their mouth when they sneezed, with their hand instead of, say, elbow sleeve, and then touching all the things, is worrying.
Thank you for correcting that. Big difference between the two and people will happily play 'Chinese whispers' with these bits of information leading to a totally different overall picture.
Airborne transmission doesn't require any other medium than the air itself, even dust is optional.
I think my P100 filters might survive an autoclave. They are the pink disc kind from 3M. Pressure cooking only goes up to 121C @ 15psi, so it isn't as hot as it may seem.
It's not just the pressure and the temperature, it's also the steam. Autoclaves are are pretty nasty environments, and I wouldn't trust a filter that had gone through one. It's very likely the filter medium would have been degraded.
Obviously something like this would only make sense under extreme circumstances, when you have to leave the house, but can't use a fresh mask every time, because of shortages.
They last indefintely, i.e. change the filter when it becomes clogged, which will be approximately never if you're not actually using it in a dusty environment. But check the manufacturer's instructions.
I heard a report that soaking them in salt water and allowing it to completely dry can destroy viruses as the salt crystals from. YMMV. Web search for more information.
That works for sponges but it breaks the material down pretty fast. You could possibly use ozone to sterilize the masks if you sealed a container and let it sit at a proper concentration for the correct time period.
> A saner advice is to wash your hands frequently and to avoid touching your face when in public
I wouldn't use a urinal either (I never do anyway, as a former licensed plumber, thosef'n things are NASTY imo). I also flush twice with my back turned before using a public toilet.. not ideal but better than not I think.
There is only a ~2% mortality rate from COVID-19, less than the usual flu. If one is prepping to survive from this, it is much more likely you have deeper emotional & psychological issues that prevent you from holding long lasting intimate relationships. And are at a higher risk of death from depression, anxiety, loneliness,and general social isolation. Thank you for listening. P.S. I work in this field and attached is an analysis of the ebola virus breakout from a few years ago, if you feel so inclined to work on something similar using your CS skills for COVID. See you in New Zealand with all the other bitcoin moguls :-)
https://petridishtalk.com/2014/10/02/retooling-analysis-pipe...
I disagree with your sentiment about preppier mentality strongly. For me, it’s not about prepping to survive like THIS is a world-ending event, it’s about not getting caught in a rush to get supplies or stampedes when people panic. Tbh, that’s more of a concern than the disease.
That said, the serious complication rate is higher than the flu.
The r0 is much higher than the flu.
The disease is spread asymptomatically.
Nobody is ready if the disease does take hold and spreads widely.
Either A. the r0 is much higher due to asymptomatic spreading OR B. the serious complication rate is higher. It’s likely not both. If A. is true, the serious complication rate is likely overstated because there are lots of asymptomatic people who are getting counted.
But how do we know it is 20%? If R0 is higher than we think due to asymptomatic spreading, then we likely aren’t counting all the asymptomatic cases. If we did, it would result in a lower serious complication rate. That’s why I said it can’t be both.
So it seems prudent to reiterate that the only causes for social disruption & need to prep would be to have unjustified panic and run at stores like the behavior seen in Italy.
significantly less deadly than sars but also significantly more contagious. sars was only contagious once you showed symptoms, which does not appear to be the case here. for covid, los alamos suggests a pre-intervention r0 of 4-6: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v...
the fatality rate increases with age, up to ~15% for >80. i don't know about you but i have older people in my family that i'm very concerned about.
Yes I agree with you, I am concerned with the elderly & infants. As these are the demographics which usually have higher fatal outcome both in diseases, and even adverse effects from drugs/surgery.
Young children are surprisingly resilient against Coronavirus infections, their mortality is so low that it hardly figures in the stats (on an individual level it is still just as much a tragedy).
Age is very significant for mortality rate: 0-9: 0%, ..., 60-69: 3.6%, 70-79: 8.0%, 80+: 14.8%. Also the regional breakdown is apparently a useful approximation of what happens when the healthcare system is overwhelmed (Hubei 2.9%) vs not (other Chinese provinces 0.4%). Also 81% patients reported mild symptoms.
It plateaued in China following an incredibly massive quarantine effort. The infection is hitting countries with not nearly the social control measures that China has.
You might be surprised. There are some old laws and powers that are going to be dusted off, and in some other cases it may be the case that governments just claim powers on an emergency basis and essentially nobody other than the absolute political fringes of society is going to complain.
"essentially nobody other than the absolute political fringes of society is going to complain"
I very much dont think that is the way this plays out in the western world.
In China, they welded the doors shut on entire residential buildings leaving the people in there to either die or survive on their own. They bagged and gagged people with elevated temperature and force quarantined them. They had crematoriums working over time.
China has complete military control of their population, this is going to go very differently in the West.
China's process was very effective and probably greatly reduced the rate of infection but there is no way people in other countries are just going to sit silently while the same actions are carried out.
Much of the world isn't actually under control of a government. Here in the developed world, we've basically bought into the nation-state system, with a strong central government controlling a defined territory with border checkpoints. But many parts of central Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and rural areas in other continents aren't like this. The dominant social organization is by tribe, clan, cartel, gang, or warlord; borders are porous or nonexistent; and the government has no authority, not even a monopoly on physical force.
The virus doesn't care whether you believe in governments, and it's just now hitting these regions - Pakistan, Africa, North Korea, etc.
China's numbers are absolutely not reliable, because:
- they've changed their reporting standards multiple times
- they don't seem to be testing enough people because of test kit shortages, because many people seem to have given up going to hospitals when they're sick because they know they won't get in or because they're barricaded in to their homes or forbidden from leaving
- their media censorship makes it difficult to independently verify the numbers they are reporting
Do not overstock on masks or other supplies. Masks especially should be available to the sick. It's ironic that (I'm sure) someone out there will stock up on 10,000 masks and it will cause them to be in even greater danger because the sick people around them will have fewer masks.
The CDC recommends that sick people wear masks to keep droplets in, and that people who directly interact with sick people wear masks while interacting with the sick person (to stop projectile droplets I presume). The CDC does not recommend masks be worn generally.
Masks help remind you not to touch your face, but you can just put tape on your fingers or something for the same effect (this is just my personal idea).
(This is more of a PSA than a direct reply to your comment.)
Perfect way to guarantee shortages. Let the price float and there is an incentive for businesses to figure out how to increase the supply quickly, thus causing the price to drop.
The economic theory on this is rock-solid and yet it seems impossible to educate the general public or government officials regarding the consequences of price controls.
Not the situation we are talking about but even in that situation a government control on the price of the concert tickets could easily create a shortage. An entertainer would just choose to have concerts in a different jurisdiction that didn't limit the prices leading to 0 seats in the location with price controls.
It invalidates what you mentioned re. the entertainer avoiding a certain location due to price control. And btw, price control in this case means “no resale above ticket price” or something similar, not the government controlling the pricing itself. The supply is fixed so there can’t be a shortage (except when it’s caused by price gouging performed by middlemen).
For example, the large increase in price creates perverse incentives to reduce the available supply and make it available at a higher price (eg. buying all the masks at $n and reselling them at a price greater than n).
A higher price also encourages counterfeiting; making fake masks that sell for $1 isn't that profitable, but if they sell for $50, there's definitely more of an incentive to do so.
The problem of low-quality or defective merchandise exists at any price point. Adding price controls doesn't prevent that problem and in fact would encourage black markets where defective merchandise is less likely to be detected by consumers or regulators.
It was just an idea. You're right that it may have adverse effects.
Yet I wonder: Viruses live longer on a "clean-looking" doorknob than they do in a towel, for example. This was very counter-intuitive to me. So when it comes to a virus, would they live longer on skin or on a bandage or piece of tape?
Thank you for acknowledging this. I really appreciate it.
The issue is that the adhesive from tape is a form of glue. It attracts and keeps hold of germs. Plus, it is extremely hard to get fully off in terms of disinfection purposes.
I had a central line (dialysis catheter) in my chest for 4 months for a procedure called plasma exchange. You cannot take a shower with an exposed central line. A single drop of water on your line, or even the moisture/condensation from the shower can literally cause sepsis, as water has a lot of bacteria in it. This happens no matter how well the line is cleaned.
Anyways, I tried taking a shower by covering the line with a Ziploc bag and putting tape around it. I also cut the fingers off of gloves and /sealed the fingers of the glove onto the line with tape/. I literally put glue on the central line, which runs straight to my heart.
I never ended up with sepsis, due to the line only being in me shortly (4 months), but I did get chewed out by the sterility nurse.
Basic lottery is 1 in 14 million winning. I guess "citation needed", having that exact winner on hn is pretty low probability. This is an irrational comment in an irrational subthread. I'm not sure adhesive tape doesn't have high germs density but i'm pretty sure there is little correlation between your finger sticking to a material and a germ sticking to that same material. This message has no positive outcome besides making feel good while i press "reply", it's not intended for you to read it, it's intended for me to re-read it while thinking of this moment.
It does attract bacteria plus other pathogens, plus makes them hard to remove.
For example, in the 90s, roll tape (versus now: single use sterile IV tape) was sometimes used to secure IV lines. Here is a study on IV lines (not central lines):
I was phenomenally stupid and also phenomenally lucky not to go in to sepsis for this move.
I do know. Even though I am currently in pharmaceutical remission, I have cheated death a few times as an adult, and I am more aware of medical risks. You would be surprised to know that I am doing well and prospering, especially if you knew my health situation.
This complete internet stranger just wants to say he's happy to hear you're doing well and prospering, and wishes you the best in the circumstances you're in!
> You would be surprised to know that I am doing well and prospering, especially if you knew my health situation
As someone who is in the midst of a difficult medical situation right now (and who cheated death myself 2 years ago during the episode that sent me to ICU and gifted me with yet another chronic condition), I'm very happy for you and hope I can join you in your wellness in the coming months.
Some 15 years ago, I almost fully recovered from a serious medical condition that left me partially paralyzed, in severe pain, and out of work for many months. This time around it's a lot harder, and is taking years instead of months.
And what use is of mask with a valve for a sick person? They are already sick and valve will let contaminated air straight out? Can healthy people at least buy these?
I think that not recommending masks for everyone is very myopic considering that the virus tends to spread asymptotically.
Even if asymptomatic people transmit the virus "asymptomatic transmission likely plays a minor role in the epidemic overall, WHO says. People who cough or sneeze are more likely to spread the virus, the agency wrote"[1]
I agree strongly that we shouldn't overstock on masks.
That said, I'd urge everyone to get a few P95 [1] masks for themselves and their family members, in the event that you have to accompany them to a hospital, or even to wear in public if you live in an urban environment.
1. P95 have same filtering capacity as N95, but last for much longer.
Considering the fact that even alcohol-based hand-sanitizer is already sold out at 8 confirmed cases over here, masks seem extremely difficult to get a hold of...
Lots of people only wash their hands when they use the bathroom, if even that. They touch their faces and mouths a lot more often than they think. If they can learn to change their habits, wash their hands regularly if they go in public, and work from home more often if allowed by their employer, I'd say those are meaningful preparations.
Do you suppose gyms are a bad place to go during an outbreak? So far I haven't stopped going, but seems like it could be an especially nasty hotbed of airborne and surface-based viruses.
You don't have to go to the gym to exercise. Plenty of bodyweight exercise (like push-ups, L-sits, planks, burpees, etc) can be done at home without any equipment.
Investing in a little bit of equipment, like barbells or maybe a pull-up bar, can let you do even more exercise at home.
While I could Google this, I often prefer asking people I 'know' even as tangentially as via HN comments: any suggestions for resources about this? I'd like to exercise more, and I have an entire room available, but I'm not sure where to start. I have the one-handed weight thingies, for one, but a pull-up bar is not an option. I heard one of those ball thingies with a handle is useful?
This app may be useful to you. I've used it for about 6 months and have been pretty happy with it. You can customize what equipment you have available so that it builds you a workout based on that. On the other side, you can look at what equipment it lists and determine what you want to buy.
https://darebee.com is another good site. They have lots of videos explaining various exercises. Just make sure you start with the entry-level exercises to slowly build up your strength.
I'd even recommend to not worry so much about timing your workouts as this causes too much stress, just focus on the exercises themselves in the beginning to make sure you do them properly.
if you're excercising for health, you don't need a gym. Just go for a vigorous walk, do some gardening, maybe a run, or vacuum the house. All of those count as excellent ways to get exercise.
I'm not sure I'd personally suggest that hoovering the house is an "excellent" form of exercise, but at least they didn't blindly assume the person was going to the gym purely because they were not aware how to exercise outside of it. Perhaps the community aspect of their gym is what attracts them. None of the replies actualy answer the original question of are gyms are a particularly bad place to go. I would suggest they absolutely are a bad idea as they involve a lot of air conditioning and a lot of shared surfaces. And also a lot of coughing even at the best of the times.
There is a nice book by a convict who used his time in jail to exercise using whatever available, a very inspiring read. The title is Convict Conditioning.
As far as I know, zinc pyrithione isn't available in any consumer product, because it is pretty toxic in moderate levels. Without it (from the article) "the concentration of free Zn2+ is maintained at a relatively low level by metallothioneins".
Zinc supplementation may of course help if you are deficient, but the study can't really tell if 'healthy' Zn2+ concentrations contribute anything to the inhibition of viral replication.
There's not really such a thing as 'boosting' your immune system - it's either working properly, or it's not. A 'boosted' / over-active immune system results in auto-immune diseases like Crohn's (which is what I have). Funnily enough I'm being treated with Stelara which actually suppresses my immune system - so it's no 'live' vaccines for me and other vaccines might not work effectively or at all, and I need to be extra careful to avoid getting ill. Working 100% remote is something I am appreciating more and more currently.
Just get some green lentils from the bulk section. Lentils are high in zinc and It's always better to get your nutrition from actual food, rather than supplements which are unregulated and contain god knows what (not to mention it's not how your body normaly absorbs nutrients).
I don't think OP is asking about preparing for or avoiding actually getting the disease. OP is asking about preparing for potential shortages of goods if quarantines are ultimately deployed in the US (which is what's already happening globally).
It's wrong, but the question was about what people are doing and thinking.
I think it's important to see what people think and people shouldn't be down voted for being honest.
But I have to be OT and say "a really dangerous variant of the common cold" - It's killing 14% of people over 80 who get it at last estimates. And permanently hurting a lot of people over 80 as well.
And we don't really do flu season as well as we could, as a society we need to step up a bit in general. We could all prepare for even the flu season more than we do. Common cold, perhaps meh.
Things are simpler for me than for many, since I am retired.
- Planning purchases for hunkering down for a few weeks: Food, water, batteries, water purifier, battery-powered radio, hand-crank power generator for radio, etc.
- Sold 50% of my stock holdings.
- Putting a large amount cash in my checking account.
- Getting a smaller amount of cash (paper) to have at home.
That plan seems predicated on the assumption that COVID-19 will burn itself out and disappear in a matter of months. But there's no current evidence to suggest that will be the case, and if we look to similar diseases, they have been around for tens of years.
Even if it depresses in the summer months, it will return in full force next winter (see e.g. flu, common colds, etc).
Best case scenario a working vaccine is invented. But nobody currently has a proven working one (regardless of a few headlines to the contrary) and even if they did that would be 18 months minimum before mass manufacturing could begin.
What I am saying is "bomb shelter"-style hunkering down will likely be ineffective if there's a mass spread in your country because the disease would out-live whatever supplies you have.
I am assuming that in the next few weeks I will need to be isolated for 3-4 weeks. I am assuming that electricity is mostly on, and water to my home is mostly available, (although possibly tainted -- preparing for that).
After that, who knows. Hopefully there will be a vaccine.
Considering the amount of time to develop and produce a vaccine for widespread distribution, I don't expect anything in place until next flu season if not the year after.
If there is an effective vaccine I'm expecting a lot of people to be drafted to create facilities to make it in quantity. (Assuming it can't be made in the same process that the current flu shot is made). If society puts its mind to it building this infrastructure can be done very fast - it won't be the most cost effective build in ordinary times, but it will get the job done.
I don't know what country you are from, but mine (USA) has lost its ability to set its mind to anything. It can't even be said to have a rational mind any longer.
Don't be so pessimistic. I'm from the USA: we might be divided (and people like you are pushing the divide!), but we still have the ability to get things done when we want to. There just isn't a collective goal pushing us all in one direction.
Overall I think it is a good thing. Only by many diverse opinions and goals from many different people can we try everything and see what really works out.
> but we still have the ability to get things done when we want to.
Please provide examples.
- We used to be able to build Hoover Dam. Now it takes literally years to pass a bill to maintain our highways.
- Do I need to remind you what a joke Infrastructure Week has become?
- How are those gun violence stats? Number 1 in the world at something, at least.
- The fastest-growing approach to paying for medical bills, in this country, is a GoFundMe campaign.
- The world financial system was nearly destroyed by inadequately regulated US "finanice industry innovation" in 2008. As Paul Volcker said the following year: “the ATM has been the only useful innovation in banking for the past 20 years”.
- Facebook and Google -- the most successful US companies in history, I think, have destroyed privacy, and are now bringing down democracy. Oh, right, I forgot, Facebook is connecting people. Point for you.
Seriously. What has this country done recently that proves we can do anything productive any longer?
Take a look at are highways. Despite constant complaints about them being in trouble, we build a lot of them including many bridges. Take a look at your city there is someplace in the metro area they are building something big.
Fasting growing doesn't mean much. Most people have insurance which covers everything. Yes there are too many people on the edges who don't have it, but most people do and don't need gofundme (I suspect some of them have a gofundme anyway as a way to raise money because they can)
Sure we don't do massive society wide projects, but that is because we don't need them. That doesn't mean we can't.
OK, Candide, you may be living in the best of all possible worlds, but I would rather be in one where health care was guaranteed. And yes, while most are "insured", that insurance is often unreliable. This is a solvable, society-wide project, to use your phrase. This country is incapable of pulling it off. (And some of those people resorting to gofundme have insurance, but it is inadequate.)
Look at the superbug problem. We are heading to a time in which antibiotics just no longer work, and what are now minor infections will be fatal. Where is the impetus to solve this society-wide (even world-wide) project? It is not in the financial interest of pharma companies to solve the problem, so we don't. You would think that society would be interested in solving this problem by structuring incentives appropriately. It doesn't happen.
What about climate change? Miami is starting to drown. Other coastal cities are not far behind. The Paris climate agreement is pretty weak, and this country couldn't even stomach that.
I know we're all stressed right now, and you make some good points, but your post would be a lot stronger and more welcome here if you took out the ad-homonyms and insults.
Vaccines are biological in nature. It's very possible that time will be a much more meaningful factor than people or equipment in producing enough of a vaccine to cover sufficiently many people so "massively parallelizing" the process may not help with the lead time to vaccine availability, only with quantity when it does become available (assuming an effective vaccine is found).
Having said that, I would expect that in most Western countries, sufficient quantities to cover the most vulnerable people (older people and those with existing heart or respiratory conditions - ie largely the same people selected for annual flu vaccines in many places) will be available by next (Northern hemisphere) winter.
I think infrastructure, in general, is at some risk. The people who maintain infrastructure are going to be as motivated to stay home as everyone else.
If water treatment plant can't operate because the workers are sick...I would imagine the first step would be similar to a flooded treatment station -- a boil water condition. Provided you have gas/electric to do that.
We can't speculate at this point what kind/likelihood of a civil emergency we might face with this or any other disaster that hasn't happened yet.
However, having been through Sandy where we had 16 consecutive days of no power or heat and a snowstorm with a foot of snow and fouled treatment facilities with boil alerts, here's my recommendations:
1) Hold 10x24x16oz bottles of water and use them in FIFO. When you finish one flat, you buy a new one and put it on the bottom of the stack. It's not that crazy to hold 2 weeks of drinking water in your pantry/garage.
2) In many places around the world, the sink water isn't treated at all. Have some sterilizer solution available for washing dishes but don't risk drinking water that isn't treated
3) peanut butter has a really long shelf life, easy to store, is really cheap, and if you don't have nut allergies, not a bad source of nutrition.
4) figure out the electrical needs of critical devices - phones/tablets CPAPs, air machines, etc. GoalZero is a pretty user friendly brand of solar / battery combos.
5) get a 100W 12V adaptor for your car. If you need to recharge something that isn't USB, you can use your car as a simple generator.
6) be prepared to live without heat or A/C but if you do have power, make sure your filters are clean. Ask your hvac guy to recommend the max level of HEPA your HVAC can tolerate.
7) have squirt bottles with disinfectant in every room with a sink.. not just normal countertop cleaning stuff. Bleach IIRC needs 7 minutes to achieve a maximum log reduction of bacteria / viruses so keep in mind when you're cleaning, its not possible to kill everything, you're reducing the load of bad things over a period of time.
The mind boggles at how people can characterise preparation of a month’s worth of food, water and other essentials as “bomb shelter”-style hunkering down.
The CDC, amongst other US and foreign government agencies, recommend it. When the CDC speaks, I listen.
Great guys, you stay here and argue about whether two weeks of food and water or four constitutes a crazy bunker mentality. All the more time for the rest of us to stock up for our kids.
About 1/3 of my estate is in the stock market. I sold 1/2 of that 1/3. I'm prepared to sell the rest. I may sell the remaining 1/2 in the coming days. Cash is more prudent in an emergency, and I'm prepared for that too.
I have the usual spectrum, ranging from more money in safer, long-term investments, to smaller amounts that are liquid. All I've done is to move things moderately toward the more-liquid end of the spectrum.
Whether or not coronavirus turns into a stop-all-of-society-for-weeks event, China already stopped much of their society for a while. That means that things made in China are going to get scarce in a month or so. I therefore am paying attention to what things that I regularly use are made in China, and buying a few extra now, so that I can take a month or two disruption in the supply.
If you speak to anyone who works in supply chain, they're all experiencing massive disruptions. Traffic from Chinese ports has slowed significantly, these things take some time before they start affecting our store shelves. Some people will be quite surprised to see how many things rely on Chinese supply, such as pharmaceuticals. Even if a product isn't exported in a finished form from China, vast amounts of our low-level supply chains rely on China.
It depends on which part of China. Some of our manufacturers have already started work and shipping. Few of them haven't resumed work and expect to on first week of March.
Most of our suppliers are in India and Nepal but it's business as usual in these countries
We ran a drill a couple of weeks back where everybody worked from home to ensure that if we have to close our office we are able to continue working (assuming we're not ill, of course). This was really just to shake out any issues.
Fortunately, since most of us already work remotely for at least some of the time we didn't have any significant issues.
We are in a similar situation. 99% of the time everyone is working remote so we don't even really think about this stuff anymore. Our company has been operating like this for nearly a decade. There is a core group that works at a physical office, but they also have the ability to work remote for an indefinite period of time if the need arises.
Distributed/remote companies are amazing for handling disaster scenarios like this. Hurricanes, floods, pandemics, zombies, you name it. We usually just work right through it.
That's proactive thinking, good job. We're looking at the maximum user limits of our hardware and licenses and expect to buy some more licenses for the VPN appliance.
I wash my hands well and try to avoid touching my face. I try to avoid touching bathroom door handles and use some type of napkin or glove. I have been doing this for a long time, so its not really something I am doing just for this virus.
If you read CDC website they also recommend washing hands and avoid touching your face. It is much harder if you have small kids, just don’t forget to also wash their hands if they have been out in public places.
General advice for any bug that transfers trough fecal-oral route, not just for COVID-19:
1. Dot's store your toothbrush in the bathroom (at least during the times when you suspect that some family member might get infected). There are fecal matter particles in the bathroom air. You can get the ass-to-mouth transfer in the same household from toothbrushes stored in the bathroom.
2. Close the toilet lid before you flush and leave it closed. It does not solve the issue but it helps.
I really wonder how we started to have the toilet and place for washing up in the same room. Especially when you have more than one person it is so much more convenient to have them separate.
I've been doing that but what happens when you released your germs into your elbow/sleeve? It wouldn't get cleaned or sanitized until you wash your clothes. So I think if you are near a sink, it would probably be better to cover nose and mouth with hand and then clean right away. But yeah, I usually do the vampire method when I'm on the go.
"I've been doing that but what happens when you released your germs into your elbow/sleeve?"
The idea is that they stay there, rather than floating through the air and infecting someone else. While "lots of germs in your sleeve" may trigger our disgust reaction, they aren't a problem until they actually get somewhere where they can reproduce. Our disgust reaction is useful and there for a reason, but a little unfocused for a species that generally understands how germs work now.
It's particularly important for the "first few" sneezes, when you don't know if you're sneezing because of dust and this is just a one-off sneeze like any other, or if it's merely the first of a long series because you've got something and you're blasting viruses. Obviously, if you're sneezing so much that you, shall we say, "exceed the capacity" of your sleeve, then please take additional appropriate steps. But a little bit is still better off shot into your sleeve than the air.
Right, but let's say someone grabs your arm, maybe a child. Or you cross your own arms not thinking about it and back on your hands. That's what I was curious about.
"Most germs can survive on fabrics for some time." [2]
And it seems some germs linger longer on clothes than skin!
"Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), another cold-like virus that can cause serious illness in children, can survive on worktops and door handles for up to 6 hours, on clothing, and tissues for 30 to 45 minutes and on skin for up to 20 minutes." [1]
However, "Flu viruses can also survive as droplets in the air for several hours". [1]
But, "Parainfluenza virus, which causes croup in children, can survive for up to 10 hours on hard surfaces and up to 4 hours on soft surfaces." [1]
So there are no absolutes but it seems to me, the best would be in your hand and then immediately clean. But if that's not feasible, probably vampire style is best. Even though some germs could linger longer on your clothes than hands, if you can't clean your hands immediately then the contact spread risk factor would be worse than the extra linger time.
Bought some extra food; planning on buying some extra dayquil type medication. Fervently hoping that maybe I can donate some of it if things blow over. Maybe getting some extra soap, and especially TP. I'll be the king of the neighborhood if I'm the last one with real TP!
This is very likely to overwhelm not just medical infrastructure, but shut down supply chains for basic necessities for months. If the pandemic hits, most businesses will shutter, just like in China. It is prudent to stock up now for 1-2 months of cheap, non- perishable foods like rice and beans (complete protein together) at a minimum. There's just no excuse not to now if you make a tech salary - a couple hundred dollars and you have an emergency stash which is good for years.
This isn't just about personal protection - the whole community and nation can expect better outcomes of we stagger preparations, lessening the chance and impact of everyone running to the store at the same time. There is no question now that this is an unprecedented event, now is the time to prepare to mitigate risk.
"If the pandemic hits" ... the virus has already hit.
The WHO itself has backed off the Pandemic classification [1].
The virus has an overall 98% survival rate, and most diagnosed cases in the US, are not actually showing any symptoms (which itself is a cause for concern re: spread).
The annual Flu, MERS and SARS were far far worse. The flu kills between 26,000 and 52,000 annually in the US [2], and as much as I love prepping, this just does not fit the bill for the amount of FUD it has generated.
edit: comments are making me re-think my position. COVID is far worse mortality rate wise in 65+ patients vs flu.
WHO reports a 34% fatality rate for MERS, while at present it is around 2.4% for COVID-19 [2]. So it would be helpful if you provide sources when throwing down comments like this. I'll admit it's more contagious, as they state below, but again, most US cases are asymptomatic.
Speaking of overwhelmed health systems, here's a comment from Dr. Bruce Aylward (renowned expert who led the team of experts on the ground in China)[1][2]:
"The bottom line is this virus kills people... it kills our elderly and vulnerable... but this is not always the case - young people do die of this disease even in industrialized countries.
People are looking at this saying that but in China they don't have this, they don't have that, etc. If I had COVID-19, I'd want to be treated in China.
We'd go into these hospitals, how many ventilators do you have? 50-60. A scale we aren't used to seeing. How many ECMO systems do you have? 5. We don't have that in Europe.
When we look at how dangerous this disease is, we have to be careful looking at the China data. China know how to keep people alive from COVID - they are super committed to it and they are making a massive investment in it. That is not going to be the case everywhere in the world....
It is a serious disease and I worry that people are going to look at the China numbers and get a false sense of security."
The 2003 SARS outbreak resulted in under 8500 confirmed cases and the 2012 MERS outbreak in around 2500. Confirmed COVID-19 cases are currently over 80000. Only considering fatality rate paints a flawed picture.
The annual flu was worse in terms of numbers, but this illness is still early and was showing a much higher mortality rate, in proportional terms.
Of course, from what I can tell, growth in mortality has been shrinking in percentage terms. [1]
But if judging based on the early stats, it was literally hundreds of times more deadly than a common flu. Approximately to 4% of people in their 60s who contracted it died. And 15% of those in their 80s who contracted it were killed. The annual flu is not nearly that bad.
I think the Flu mortality rate is 0.1% and Coronavirus is 2%?
That seems pretty dramatic, the earlier article about the disease in China stated that some percentage of people that get infected require ICU attention to oxygenate their blood or they die (and it doesn't seem like it's limited only to old or at risk people).
That seems a lot worse than the seasonal flu?
With SARS and MERS we got lucky because they didn't end up spreading that widely even though the mortality rate was higher. I'm not convinced that's evidence that this won't be a problem.
The higher mortality rate of SARS and MERS - counterintuitively - helped to contain it, as well as the fact that it was only spread by people showing symptoms.
Not implying anything: But this tracks with my understanding of how USSR and USA wanted to select bacterial/virologic bioweapons [1]:
An agent that killed very quickly e.g. Ebola is actually not a very good bioweapon. You want something with a long incubation period that is infectious before people are symptomatic.
Things that incubate in short order + kill hosts quickly "burn the epidemic out" before it can spread.
Ideally it also can survive outside of a host for some period of time as well.
It's Because they were evacuated e.g. from Cruise ships with other symptomatic patients, and were quarantined + tested, it's a CDC standard protocol [2]. They even put one of them down the street from me as we speak [3]
But that story (1) says they had sore throats. They do not consider a sore throat a symptom? So this is the new CDC? Ignorance is strength? War is peace?
That is naive. Yes the virus has hit some places and we know a little about it, but pandemic means something different. Look what is happening in China, this can happen in any open borders country. Cases keep growing in Europe. If the virus hits more strongly in some country due to higher vulnerability of the population, or if it mutates into something nastier, we can have big disruption of daily life for millions of people, supply chains may get broken, empty shelves, curfew, etc.
WHO tainted its image by being too slow/cautious to react.
The ilness may have great survival rate, but nobody knows what percentage of survivors will have nasty long-term health condition. The virus can smoke your heart, or other organs. It is new, Chinese are falling like flies, that's why alarm is in place.
This is NOT TRUE. I urge you to stop relying on the news and look at the literature that is being published in real time. I don't have time for a full response but 15% of cases require ICU care to survive. There are less than 100k ICU beds in the U.S. and the virus spreads 2-5x (R0 estimates from 3 up to 8 depending on source) more readily than SARS or MERS or the 1918 Spanish flu.
Now is the time to be alarmed. The media is behind, for understandable reasons, do not rely on them when in 2020 you have access to the same sources they do. The literature being publishes is almost universally grave. At this point anyone minimizing ncov by comparing it to regular flu is being irresponsible.
If people start trickling into stores to stock up now, as the Canadian government is urging it's citizens, there will be less of a rush later. Perhaps we can avoid the chaos of empty store shelves.
Your wording seems a bit off mark. The Minister of Health is recommending everyone to always have an emergency reserve in case of any unforseen event, from illness to power blackout.
I'd say the vast majority of people that I know don't have such a reserve, and are seriously considering it now.
If they all go and stock up, what with the JIT-style of many supermarkets, I wouldn't be surprised to encounter shortages.
Even just to avoid the inconvenience of that, stocking up now, while the majority of the population is not too concerned, seems prudent and even beneficial to everyone else
In all seriousness, I'm truly baffled what motivates you to stand out so strongly in your anti-hysteria hysteria. I mean, I'm the anxious type who just like to prepare for stuff just in case, especially if the cost is low, but you appear to go actively out of your way to spend energy on countering any degree of concern, and it's frustratingly difficult to understand the underlying motivation.
What led you to believe I cited the news? I cite the WHO and CDC where I could. If I am interpreting that information incorrectly based on my previous experience in epidemiology, please educate me.
The numbers from China are totally innaccurate and underestimating the infection rate by at least an order of magnitude for a multitude of reasons. The WHO has been irresponsibly mirroring the Chinese numbers from the start and frankly cannot be trusted - the director of the WHO was accused by the NYT years ago of covering up 3 cholera outbreaks in his home country of Ethiopia.
China has been overwhelmed. They ran out of testing kits weeks ago. They have been turning people away from hospitals for months. Major infection areas have been under lockdown, where people are not allowed to leave their homes or drive, even for emergency trips to the hospital. Their official reported diagnosed cases are nowhere the true numbers. They've also punished doctors for reporting new cases. It's all a giant sham.
This pandemic is revealing just how incompetent global organizations and news media are.
Edit: I just read that the WHO also has some incentive to downplay the virus - $425 million in catastrophe bonds were issued that may default if the virus is officially labeled a pandemic...can't seem to find the actual default conditions but there's a clear conflict of interest here. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/pandemic-bon...
Regarding the bonds, that doesn’t seem true. The conditions for payout are:
“ On the face of it, the class B bond should have incurred losses during the 2018 ebola crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the recent coronavirus from Wuhan, China, as both have resulted in deaths north of 250 people, the primary condition for a payout.”
“ But an important secondary condition states that there must be at least 20 deaths in a second country for the bond to release any funds, a requirement that has not been met by the coronavirus or the ebola outbreak.”
Curiously Iran's smoking rate is low - 1/3 of America's. I had thought that lung-compromised smokers were responsible for high mortality in some countries. Hm.
That could still be true. I imagine there are a huge number of variables that influence mortality rates, to the point where finding correlations is difficult.
If I understand correctly, even the effect of weather/heat on various strains of viruses is extremely difficult to predict because of how many other factors play a role (air-conditioning, for example).
You are citing case fatality rate for MERS and SARS, but not the flu (which is typically 0.1%), and yet in any given year the flu has killed many more people than MERS or SARS. Why? Because millions get the flu whereas MERS and SARS were contained.
Now consider that COVID-19 is much more contagious than the flu and it has a significantly higher case fatality rate than the flu.
Furthermore, people can and do protect themselves against the flu with a vaccine. There is no vaccine for COVID-19. And still further, no one is immune because the disease is new to humans.
So yes, while covid-19 has a 98% survival rate, a widespread outbreak could kill hundreds of thousands of people.
Nature and pubmed for starters. Search 2019 ncov. Most of the papers were originally being collected and circulated on 4chan - honestly, as vile as a place as it is, the threads have been 1-2 months ahead of media. More recently reddit.com/r/coronavirus has popped up which is sharing papers and there's a more official subreddit who's name escapes me.
This is an event which illuminates the folly of relying excessively on media and government. I think it's easy to forget that these organizations are managed and staffed by people just like you and me - worse in many cases, as the average person is not exactly sharing research papers with their grandma, so to speak.
Here's one of the conservative estimates for R0 straight out of China. There's another which estimates 6-8 but I'll leave that to you to look for.
Not true. In the colloquial sense, and actually every sense of the word, this is a pandemic. At the point it became undeniably a pandemic per the WHO definition, the WHO announced they were "no longer going to use the category pandemic." The coronavirus is on every continent but one now.
You say this as if 2% of people dying is somehow nothing. Think about everybody in your life that you care deeply about. Relatives, friends, mentors, etc. If this goes pandemic, at least one person in that category will likely die.
Indeed. If you have 20 to 30 people that you love or care about a 2% mortality rate means that there is about a 50% chance at least one of them will die.
Thanks for editing your post, but given the nature of the subject matter, I would urge you to just take it down. It contains misinformation which can be dangerous.
This is serious. You don't have to panic, but this is serious.
Nah I think it generated some good discussion, if nothing else. If you are coming to HN for emergency preparedness and health advice, I’d say you are screwed already. This site is for entertainment and discourse right? Relax.
And If the WHO and the CDC are “misinformation”- so be it.
Not too worried, but that's what I'm doing just in case supplies chains break down. Mostly beans, dried fruit, chicken stock. You might want to get a few things to boost your immune system, and to compensate for less then ideal nutrition. Vitamin C, D, B12 are the most important ones. Thyme is supposedly very good. Tea, green & rosehip. Red wine, chocolate.
Don't bother with masks or anything, you probably won't be able to avoid infection anyway. Also I'm already convinced the panic & paranoia will cause way more disruption then the virus itself.
Evidence shows that if taken before exposure it reduces the risk of catching the cold, and if taken during the first 24 hours of symptoms it reduces the length and severity of the cold.
Some evidence suggests it works for the SARS Coronaviruses too (i.e. not just Rhinoviruses)
Beware. Taking Zinc regularly, especially in the high doses necessary for the cold/flu resistance effect, is NOT a good idea. It leads copper deficiency and anemia.
as far as vitamins go, the most important ones are vitamin C and B because they are water soluable, so your body doesn't store those. The fat soluable ones can be stored in your body for a very long time (A,D,E,K), so you don't need to worry about those as much in times of fasting.
> It is prudent to stock up now for 1-2 months of cheap, non- perishable foods like rice and beans (complete protein together) at a minimum.
Despite the rest of your post being overly alarmist this is a good recommendation. You should have extra staple food at all times. The cost is minimal, you can keep extra of foods you'd eat anyway, and the benefit in an unlikely supply chain disruption could be significant.
FYI: You can get get a 50 lbs bag of pinto beans at Sams for $33 and a 50 lbs bag of rice for $17. They will keep as is at least a year and provide, respectively, 76,000 calories and 82,400 calories. Maybe 80 days worth of food for a single individual.
It would be a pretty monotonous diet but better than the alternative.
In this instance, a pandemic. There are many other scenarios where even if you have drinkable tap water under normal circumstances, disaster might render that useless.
I drink bottled/filtered only due to negative side effects (for me personally, most don’t have any) of drinking chlorinated water, so simply increasing my input buffer is really straightforward.
I'm obsessed with China and to watch a modern society go from 100 to near zero, is incredible. That concerns me especially living in San Francisco where it seems society is already fragile to say the least.
- I stopped taking public transportation on January 20th; so I'm biking to work now. I'm much more healthy because of this decision
- invested in Gold, Gold stocks and puts expiring March 20th betting against the market (Though I did most of this 2 years ago because of the trade war, and the puts were purchased in December)
- I've got some extra food and water, and lots of purell
- I've called my grandparents and told them, the virus is very dangerous effecting older people [1]. I told them to stock up on food medicine, and if they hear word of it spreading to stay indoors.
My wife cancelled a holiday in the Far East. The airline seemed to be overwhelmed by people doing the same thing, so probably the time to short airline stocks.
There is a place for shorts i.e. as price discovery mechanism, and in many cases, as a price correction mechanism to reveal fundamental weaknesses in a company with overpriced stock.
Shorting stocks to take advantage of a disaster strikes me as one of the most unethical, immoral things one can do. People still do it, but it doesn't make it right.
(apologies for the moralizing -- my sentiments are not directed at OP who was merely musing and shooting the breeze -- but at amoral Wall Street types).
I mean, it's an airline. While the CEO might lose his bonus, it's unlikely for a bit of short selling to drive the airline out of business (and so for people to lose their jobs), so I don't think this is really a moral issue. Also, this is exactly a price discovery mechanism - the airline isn't going to be as profitable so it isn't as valuable!
You could be right, but I think the ethics on it are less neutral than that. (it's hard to say what "a bit" of short selling is -- there are feedback loops in the stock market)
Airlines provide fast connectivity between cities for people and goods, which is valuable in a disaster situation, and by shorting a stock to make a few bucks, you'd be creating unfavorable transportation economics in a disaster situation and possibly worsening supply chain constrictions. A short seller would be profiting off the hardship of others.
I haven't done too much, but that's because I'm generally prepared with 2 months food/water supply for general purpose emergencies. Living in the Pacific Northwest, we're expecting a pretty large earthquake as we're statistically overdue. Once panic has set in, it's too late to prepare for much of anything. Preparing is taking action beforehand, not after. I mean, if we even get news of 100 degree weather in this part of the country, the air conditioners fly off the shelves. When there's a possibility of a snow storm, everybody panics at once and empties the grocery shelves.
Yeah there is. It is not like saying that if black hit on roulette 10x in a row that one would be statistically overdue for red. Because those are completely independent events with equal probability on each trial.
With earthquakes if statically speaking a massive earthquake hits on a roughly 1 in 500 year interval, the stresses at the plate boundary are much more likely to be greater at year 600 than at year 1 after a massive earthquake.
If only earthquake modelling was so simple as to say you were overdue for an earthquake simply based on accumulated stress. Unfortunately, the Gutenberg-Richter law is not prescriptive, but a time independent statistical observation which assumes independent events, which is why saying you're due for another one is very much like gambler's fallacy. Of course we know that there are underlying physical processes which make means there should be some underlying dependence to be found, and there are attempts at time-dependent models out there, but for our purposes independence works.
If you're interested in the statistics around recurrence times, can I recommend this [1]? It's fairly well written and clear and it deals with this issue fairly comprehensively and directly.
"the longer since the last earthquake, the longer the expected time till the next".
"the belief that the longer the time to get an earthquake,the bigger its size, is false".
I believe the parent is referring to the fact that there have been large earthquakes with remarkable regularity in the PNW every ~500 years for the past few thousand years, and it's been well over 500 years since the last one.
I'm not that informed about geology, but as far as I understand, earthquakes are not independent random events but a result of stress accumulation on faultlines over time and released in sudden bursts i.e. earthquakes; and if a particular faultline has not had a release in a long time, then this means that when it happens, the next earthquake is likely to be stronger.
I picked up some extra, long-term food from CostCo. Stuff that won't go bad within a few months. Pasta, rice, almonds, some canned goods. Stuff that we'll eat off of for the next few months, regardless of what happens with COVID-19.
I'm already a little bit of a prepper, so really just "more of the same" here. Since there's not really a cure/vaccine for the specific disease yet, there's not much to do on the medical front specifically.
That said, being ill with covid19 sounds like it would be similar to the flu for many people, so I'll stock up on OTC medicines that provide some symptom relief / make it possible to sleep. Mucinex, Nyquil, things of that nature.
Beyond that... I'll add to my stock of non-perishable foods: rice, beans, beef jerky, trail mix, and such-like. I plan to stock up on some bottled water as well, but I don't focus so much on water since A. it's heavy/bulky and hard to store and B. I live near many natural freshwater streams/creeks/lakes/rivers/etc. and I would rather focus on a "water purification capability" than on just stocking large amounts of water. To that end, I already keep some water purification supplies. But the thing I'm thinking about now, is building a distilling outfit. That way, as long as I have water (fresh or salt) available, and fire making supplies and firewood, I can make relatively clean water.
I also plan to add a little more to my stockpile of candles, lamp oil, batteries, etc. And I'll probably use this as an excuse to add to my (small) stash of 9mm ammo as well.
Refill your medication(s), that's the biggest one. India produces a lot of drugs and if they get infected, we will see shortage. China also produces a lot of the base chemicals used in medication, so this is worry some. If you have chronic conditions, you really don't want to be without.
Soap and sanitizer. Mostly soap. Soap is equally effective as sanitizer in washing hands, etc. Soap is also much cheaper and more available. If the local region goes into lock down, you're not going out much so soap will work well.
Get one to two weeks of food and supplies in case. There isn't going to be a global shortage, but we may see short term runs on supplies. Include stuff like tooth brush, mouth wash, and etc. For my wife I also stocked up on a larger supplies of feminine hygiene products.
Masks. I got 20 per family member in our local area. For when you need to go out and restock food. Also learn how to properly use the mask.
Actually last year a few pharmacies in France told us they were short of some pills. Then we learned that only a few brands were manufacturing them .. so almost a single point of failure.
Globalization makes this more likely. Before globalization there were manufacturers distributed all over serving different markets. Now there are global monopolies on production (for particular drugs), which makes production very vulnerable to supply chain disruption.
>Refill your medication(s), that's the biggest one.
I take a prescription medication that is a controlled substance. I feel like a criminal each time I fill it. I'm only given exactly the amount I need for the next 30 days and it routinely causes problems when I need to travel out of state around the time of my next refill.
I really wish there was some way of saying "I've been taking this stuff for years, I've clearly never abused it, please give me some buffer for emergencies."
Friend of mine was working for FEMA after Hurricane Katrina. He said he went to lots of houses where they had an elderly family remember with cancer who had run out of their pain meds. And no way to get more.
The problem with this is that it will cause a practical relief effect that will create a small but consistent reordering latency. "You don't seem too $symptomatic today, how did you handle the past N days?"
This could be easily discerned through individual scrutiny or large-scale automated analysis.
My girlfriend takes medications that are critical to her and there are a few effective things she done that are legal.
Ups the dosage to twice as much and breaks the meds in half. Usually the price is still the same but now there’s twice as much.
Stops taking the meds on some weekends to create a buffer.
Asks a doctor to try another similar medications and express fear about going off the current med incase the new one doesn’t work. Unintended side effect is that you now have twice as much for that month.
Gradually reduce medication dosage and occasionally stop taking it. If you can live without it you’ll be more independent.
I joke with coworkers that I want to get it on my own terms. Since the death rate is relatively low, I'd rather get it first when the medical infrastructure is not overwhelmed and that I'm 100% healthy. I can even scheduled ahead and finish some projects to work around the virus.
Wouldn't it be prudent to try and get the virus as soon as possible?
Apparently, it's not that dangerous of a disease assuming you have medical care available.
So, now is the time to get it... when you have the entire intensive care unit st your disposal. If you hide out in your bunker, wear your mask, and follow the CDC's advice, you'll probably not get it for a few months. But when you do, instead of having a nice empty intensive care unit at your disposal, you'll be laying in a hospital corridor, unattended, surrounded by body bags and moaning patients.
So, my preparation is to book a trip to Wuhan with a layover in Italy. Tickets are super cheap.
Apparently even though it's unlikely to kill you, it's still likely to leave you with long lasting damage, so no, I think I'd rather try as hard as possible to avoid catching it in the first place.
If your immune system was able to beat it once, it is primed to quickly take it out the second time (probably before you even have symptoms.)
This is the entire premise behind vaccinations.
Regrettably, some viruses-- such as flu -- come in several different strains during a season; an immunity to one may not result in an immunity to another (but, an immunity to any strain of influenza seems to limit the severity of infection with other strains.) And some illnesses -- such a the common-cold -- are caused by several totally different viruses; an immunity to one doesn't make you immune to the 200+ other types of viruses that give you "the cold."
But, I've seen nothing to date indicating there are numerous COVID-19 strain floating around. That would be unusual.
> If your immune system was able to beat it once, it is primed to quickly take it out the second time (probably before you even have symptoms.)
This isn't always the case, chickenpox can lie dormant for most of your life and reactivate as a far worse shingles. There are some sources claiming reinfection is possible and that it's worse than the initial infection for coronavirus, I'd take that with a large dose of salt for now, but it's not safe to assume you'll be immune once you beat it, even if it doesn't cause long term damage.
I had to go to the ER for my son and it was already full of sick people for flu season. So no, you don't probably wouldn't get the care all to yourself. There were also way more masks in use than the last time I had to go.
Yes you are right about that. I'm just saying the resources aren't necessarily going to drop everything they are doing because of corona virus. They still have to triage the ER. Flu is very serious for youth and elderly and ERs are quite full.
Who knows. Viruses that become widespread tend to mutate. Most often they mutate to become less deadly - a virus that doesn't kill the host has a better chance of spreading. However the 1918 Spanish flu that was so deadly mutated from a less deadly version in spring to the more deadly version in fall so nothing is guaranteed.
Make your bets... If you think this will get worse get it now and live with lifelong heart problems. If you think this will get better wait as long as you can in hopes you get the less deadly version.
I'm personally holding out for a breakthrough in vaccines that mean I don't get it at all. Time will tell if I'm right. Time will also kill me - the only question is when.
I work in manufacturing sector and this can become a real serious issue for everyone. So many things are made in China that we might see some supply issues. This will have an affect on literally everything we buy in the US. We might see some interesting price spikes.
I don't even know what my company will do if we simply cannot fill our orders.
I am preparing to refinance my house though, the virus is really shaking up the stock market and pushing the mortgage rates down.
just typed a novel then decided against it. everyone needs to make their own decisions about their preparedness. For me, I’m preparing for (not the worst, but bad enough to keep me at home for several weeks). Hoping for the best.
-Stocked up on food/water
-Stocked up my medicine cabinet
-Reduced my exposure to stocks by 75%
-Turned off all automated investments
-Consuming zerohedge via RSS for news ahead of the normal cycle
-not trusting a word of any government mouthpiece
Joking, but although we are well prepared for isolation (work mostly from home, live in the countryside in one of the remotest countries in the world, have off-grid solar and 3 rainwater tanks and could probably forage enough to live for a long time from fishing and gathering), all of that is undone by having a school aged kid.
That means unavoidable contact with a wide group of other kids, from a variety of different home situations, several of whom may have runny noses etc. at any point in time.
Empirically 3 out of 4 times I get the cold, it is from one of my kids.
If things get really bad I imagine schools will close. If kids are “old enough” they may get some remote homework. Not great but doable.
But if you have a toddler you are pretty much stuffed. I can’t imagine what stay at home quarantine would to my 3 year old. It gets bad enough when we get stuck for the weekend because of storms... but TWO WHOLE WEEKS OR MORE?!!
Ugh, agree. I’m in NYC and I have a 4 year old. The prospect of my wife and I both working from home with our daughter for weeks (or longer?!?) is nightmare fuel. Seriously considering trying to rent something in the woods outside the city for a few months but that comes with its own issues...
I've already been preparing as a hobby for the last 3 years, not specifically for coronavirus, but here's how I'm prepared for it:
- I work remotely, so I can hunker down at home and have my income totally unaffected.
- I've close to 6 months worth of food, and I've been buying more in the last month as the news continues. I can give some tips on what I think is good inexpensive food to get in case anyone is interested.
- I'm fasting regularly, which will realistically extend my food supply. Most people calculate their food supply by 3 meals a day plus snacks, but you can go days without eating. Right now I'm closing in on 72 hours without food. I'm perfectly fine. You get used to it. The key is getting your electrolytes and getting out of your sugar addiction.
- I have lots of water stored up, although that's not going to be much of a problem with COVID-19. Several filters meant to remove viruses, though I have a distiller so I would probably just use that if I was really that paranoid about my water, which I probably won't be.
- My medicine cabinet has everything you can think of and more. I have 2 first aid kits and a trauma kit. I have what it takes to turn the entrance to my home into a decon chamber, if need be. I have tons of bleach and disinfectants.
- I have full gas masks with filters, including adapters for 3M filters, which should be perfectly sufficient to remove droplets in the air. I also have full tyvek suits in case there's a worst case scenario but I have to leave my home. I have lots of N95 masks, but obviously you can't count on those for very much. I certainly don't have the belief that even the gas masks will prevent anything. It's just hedging my bets.
---
All that said, I am not paranoid. I don't even have anxiety over it. Those things I mentioned would only come into play if things went extremely bad. My life wouldn't be very different if I had to stay indoors for months on end, so long as utilities continue to operate. Even if the supply chain broke down, I would probably be better off staying indoors than trying to bug out to somewhere else.
One other thing I'm doing is trying to sell off a high value items I've been holding on to, but I'm selling them off now because the money could save me from strife if there's widespread infection and my job totally falls apart.
Yes, you're technically burning through your body's food supply when you fast. While that has survival implications, that's not really the point. The average American overeats like crazy and is addicted to junk food. Fasting helps to break that addiction so that you're more likely to use your crisis food wisely and not feel hunger pangs. When I tell people that I comfortably fast for 4 or more days, they think it's crazy and they can't imagine it, but it's really not that hard. That tells me that people are liable to digging into their food too early on in a survival situation.
The truth is that while I am gradually burning body fat intentionally, I've still got weeks worth of fat on my and probably will when I decide to reduce my fasting back to eating one meal a day. I'd rather burn that fat and eat minimally for the first week or two of a crisis before digging into my reserves. Let's say I learn that the supply chain will be broken for longer than expected; I want to have food around so I can calmly address the issue without having to panic about where I'm going to get my next meal.
To put it simply, I don't think most people have the discipline to not pig out on their earthquake kit or their pantry if they're stuck at home during a pandemic. There's a bit of a caloric tradeoff in gaining that discipline, but I think it's worth it.
I don't have much of a specific method, but usually I try to go at least 48 hours and limit myself to a 1 hour eating window. The key is getting your electrolytes. It's amazing how big a difference they make. Otherwise, I just take fasting day by day. I try to be conscientious and recognize whether I'm genuinely hungry or just desiring food because I'm bored. If it's the former, I'll break my fast. I eat pretty healthy when I break my fast, but I don't make a fuss about too much carbs or whatever because I'll get satiated too quickly to even get close to overeating.
The best way is to make an electrolyte drink yourself. Here's my recipe:
- 2 Liters of water
- 1/2 teaspoon of pink salt
- 1 teaspoon of potassium chloride
- 1/4 teaspoon of food grade epsom salt
- Lemon and stevia used sparingly to taste
It's not the best tasting thing ever, but you get used to it. Using filtered water will make it much more palatable. I think salts make poor tap water quality more obvious.
You can always drink Powerade Zero or something like that. I don't think there's really anything wrong with that, and I drink those sometimes. It's just more expensive and the artificial sweetener might spike insulin.(I doubt that's a big deal) The recipe I described is pretty dirt cheap.
I used to have a hard time fasting for more than a day or doing a ketogenic diet because I simply wasn't getting my electrolytes. This was accelerated by the fact that I was drinking way too much water and urinating them out. Replacing electrolytes throughout the day keeps me from feeling miserable.
Even at 24 hours you begin to recognize how much of modern life revolves around eating. Trying taking a stroll through the city while fasting. Within 10 seconds you see people eating icecream, candy bars, cokes, a zillion restaurants, convenience stores, not to mention alcohol.
With fasting I found I had low energy and would be really, really bored. There was a lot of temptation to fill time with just munching on something.
I also found that when I broke my fast, I didn't eat as much as I expected to. No huge pigout meal or anything.
I am not religious, but I think Ramadan is an example of a really healthy religious practice because it reminds people of their relation to food.
You seem to think it's obvious that you last longer if you ration yourself rather than eat until the food is gone and then burn fat. That sounds reasonable, but I can't exactly think of a logical argument why. Why do you think it should be true?
You make a valid point. Overall, I look at fasting as a form of preparedness before a situation because it trains the body and mind to not crave to eat in excess. But, as you correctly pointed out, I was thinking of fasting as long as much as possible to try and limit digging into my food reserves. There may be strategy in saving body fat for later in a crisis. I'm not sure.
My line of thinking is that, early on in a crisis, I don't know how long a crisis is going to last or how intense the looting will be. It could be that a week goes by and all the store shelves are bare; although I'll have potentially put myself at risk by lowering my body fat, I'd still feel more secure having extra food for myself and perhaps someone else than having eaten most of it when I didn't need to and now there's no more food to go around. Having extra food around the point at which I may need to get out of Dodge seems preferable to me than to hit the road with only bodyfat and few to no provisions.
I don't think there's a good answer to that. You make a great point. I do still think fasting is a useful in helping people break food addictions and learn self control.
Your body learns how to fast, just like it learns how to run. If you fast regularly, you body switches into "fasting" mode quickly, and you feel much less of an impact cognitively or physically, than if you've never fasted before (or haven't fasted for a long time).
If it comes down to who can just survive the longest with zero calories, someone weighing 300 pounds is probably going to out-last me. But if there's any level of physical or mental activity required to survive and/or actually acquire calories, I'm going to have a big advantage.
EDIT And if, as another commenter mentioned, it comes down to making a low number of calories last a long time -- again I'll have a big advantage.
Absolutely! A lot of is is psychological, too. I try not to bring up the topic of fasting too much around people, but when I do, people think it's nuts to even just eat one meal a day! Of course, I would have thought that's nuts years ago. But after trying it myself, even if I don't continue to fast regularly, I know that I could do it if I needed to and that it wouldn't be a big deal.
It's so weird -- people say, "Oh I could never do that, I get SUUUPER hungry." Um, do you think I don't get super hungry? But it's not linear. People are 1 hour late for a meal and they're a little hungry; 2 hours late and they get quite hungry, 3 hours and they're super hungry. They extrapolate, and think that after 24 hours they'll be writhing in agony or something. That's not how it works.
A very rough rule of thumb is that your body can convert ~1% (probably closer to 0.8%) of your body fat into usable calories per day. If you're going to rely entirely or partially on stored body fat, be sure you have enough to cover your target calorie deficit.
"All that said, I am not paranoid. I don't even have anxiety over it. Those things I mentioned would only come into play if things went extremely bad."
Likewise. To some extent, I recommend doing some prep precisely so that you don't have to panic. If you have some basic prep, you can worry a lot less about "what if earthquake" or "what if power goes out for a week" or "what if pandemic", because you know that while you may not be prepared for everything and it may be hard, at least you're going to be caught completely flat-footed.
Also, I would just feel like an idiot sitting there in my house in week 3, wishing I had X, when X was like $12 or whatever trivial sum just a month ago. For values of X like "soap" or "shampoo" or something, I'm not even "saving money". I was just too lazy to make sure I had a stock on hand, despite literally months of warning this quarantine was likely coming. I'm trying to help future-me to not feel like an idiot.
I wasn't going to talk about that because I think it'd be frowned upon on HN, but now that you mention it...
I own a .22 long rifle and have tons of ammo. I've been thinking of getting a glock but haven't gotten around to it. It's not the best for self defense, but it's a heck of a lot better than no gun at all. It's ridiculously easy to shoot accurately. The ammo is cheap and ubiquitous, which is another advantage.
There's other defense items that I would use first if possible. I own some cans of police grade pepper gel, tasers, a slingshot, and a combat knife, among other things.
Regardless of the virus, now is the cheapest I have seen ammo in 15 years. Ammoman has 1k rounds of brass 5.56 for $289 shipped. I’d stock up before the election run.
> I can give some tips on what I think is good inexpensive food to get in case anyone is interested.
I'm interested! I've mostly heard of canned foods and the military-style rations / dried meals that last many years (although those are actually a bit pricey, I think).
The dried food and MREs aren't bad. But they can be overkill, or too heavily relied upon. I guess it's a nice idea that there will always be a stockpile of food ready to go, but I figured out that I'd rather keep around some regular food that keeps well that I can slowly rotate through. Don't get me wrong, I think that ration food is great if you're going to be mobile. I keep dried ration meals inside a backpack for that purpose.
I don't want to discourage anyone from buying prepared meals if that's what would make them feel better. A hefty fee for some tubs of ready-to-go meals that last 20+ years can provide peace of mind. That said, here's a list of food that I stockpile that I think are the best value:
(Most of this will seem obvious, but I've also owned lots of survival meals, and a lot of what's described here is what's in those anyway)
- Peanut butter: One jar is more than enough fat/sugar/protein for a day's worth of calories, multi-purpose, can be eaten straight, no cooking required, portable, doesn’t require can opener. Powdered peanut butter exists but is more expensive and I don’t really care for it, but it might make sense to you. A jar at Wallmart is $1.58.)
- Canned meat: I normally don't eat canned meat, but in a crisis, having it can be a morale booster. Spam has all the advantages of peanut butter, but in meat form; A can of "Luncheon Meat" at either Wallmart is also around $1.50. Corned beef hash is very tasty and cheap. Canned tuna and pink salmon are good, too.
- Dried fruit: I prefer banana chips because they keep the best. Takes no preparation. Can be added to all sorts of things as well.
- Oatmeal: It's cheap and versatile. It requires water, but it doesn't necessarily need to be cooked. You can just use cold water and let it soak for a while. Tasty, filling, and can be made plain, sweet, or even savory. Add a boillon cube to a pot of oatmeal and you've got an easy evening meal. It's not great, but it'll fill you up.
- Pasta: Ramen noodles, mac n' cheese, etc. Stuff that's quick to make and requires the least preparation.
- Rice: A 20 lb sack of rice can be as cheap as $8, perhaps less depending on where you live.
- Honey: Very versatile, can be used in place of sugar in a lot of cases, needs no refrigeration, lasts ages.
- Ghee or shortening: Both are shelf stable at room temperature and can be used in place of butter.
- Hot sauce, salt, spices, etc. All are dirt cheap but can liven up dull food. As I mentioned before, bouillon cubes are handy.
- Coffee crystals, hot cocoa powder
- Vinegar: For cleaning and can also add flavor.
- Alcohol: We can all use a little liquid morale on occasion. Good for sanitation and can be used as fuel in desperation.
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A lot of people recommend beans. I don't because they take longer to cook than rice and they're too fibrous; have fun eating too many beans and sharting your pants while the world is dying around you! It's not like it's bad to have beans, but I've gotten rid of most of mine for that reason at this point.
If you could only buy one item, I'd definitely go with peanut butter.
I have a fireplace, a gas furnace, and an electric grid connection, but only one of these is definitely functional at the moment. If I were to stock up on supplies, I would have to know my situation in the event stuff goes kerblooie. Do I have water? Is it hot? Does it seem clean but actually is full of bacteria?
Often people recommend that you prepare for disasters by buying things that you will periodically use up, so they don't get really stale or spoiled. I really can't face eating the amount of spam that it would require to insure against a significant disaster, assuming there isn't one. Or peanut butter.
If I have water and the ability to cook, potatoes seem like pretty much the cheapest source of calories that won't quickly spoil as long as you keep them where it's dark and cool. I wonder why people don't recommend stocking up on them?
That's why I have extra camp stoves, propane cans, sternos, lighters, etc. If you're worried about contaminated water, you can either sanitize it with some bleach or use a water filter from a brand like Sawyer or Lifestraw. Or distill it.
> I really can't face eating the amount of spam that it would require to insure against a significant disaster, assuming there isn't one. Or peanut butter.
Hah! Admittedly, I usually go through more of the pasta, oatmeal, and rice over time than I do the other things like spam. However, I've got a can of spam here that has a "best by" date of 2025. It probably will last beyond that if the conditions are right. So let's think about this... Let's say you have 30 cans of spam, enough to have one every day for a month. If they last about 5 years on the shelf, that means you'd have to eat 1 can every other month if I understand the math correctly. Doesn't sound too bad to me! Of course this does mean keeping somewhat close track of what's closer to expiration.
> If I have water and the ability to cook, potatoes seem like pretty much the cheapest source of calories that won't quickly spoil as long as you keep them where it's dark and cool. I wonder why people don't recommend stocking up on them?
I don't know. I have no experience with storing potatoes, so I don't know how long they last on their own. That seems like a good idea on the face of it. Sorta off topic, I do know one guy who stealthily plants potatoes in the foothills and occasionally digs them up to eat, with the side motivation that they'd be supplemental survival food if need be. I don't know how practical that is, but that's kinda neat nonetheless.
565 comments
[ 2.9 ms ] story [ 329 ms ] threadThere's no meaningful preparations for avoiding what is essentially a really dangerous variant of the common cold at an individual level.
Now governments and the medical field should be preparing for it. But most of that is logistical problems (e.g. number of hospital beds, preparing quarantine plans, test kits, etc).
You can order a bunch of masks if it makes you feel better, but countries with common mask usage are still seeing a large scale spread so YMMV.
Stuff like this: https://www.ibtimes.sg/wuhan-virus-italy-supermarkets-are-ru...
The freaking panic is already starting in my country too. People buying up food in 10x the quantities than the usual shopping visit, etc..
I've gone shopping yesterday, when the virus was found in the country next to mine, to buy enough food for a week, just to avoid the inevitable initial panic that's starting today, when the first case appeared in my country.
Is it panicking? Dunno, maybe she's just setting up a flour shop, or has 50 hungry necks to feed. But it was certainly unusual.
Full cart is a bit much though if it's like 50kg+
This Walgreens is in Mountain View, a few miles from the main Google campus in California.
>I've gone shopping yesterday, when the virus was found in the country next to mine
What's the old saying? "You're not sitting in traffic, you are the traffic." :)
A saner advice is to wash your hands frequently and to avoid touching your face when in public. Because you can get this virus by touching infected surfaces and then touching your face. It doesn't seem to be an airborn virus, but it does survive on surfaces.
I cary a hand sanitizer for those moments in public when I feel the need to scratch my face :-)
I just read this last night, and from this I had the impression that it is an airborne virus, and that surface spreading is not the main vector:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission...
No amount of gentle reminder -> passive aggressive suggestion -> explicit suggestion had lasting effects on their behavior. All I could do is be vigilant and recluse myself from their company whenever one's clearly showing symptoms.
Airborne transmission doesn't require any other medium than the air itself, even dust is optional.
[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
So if droplets containing viruses penetrate beneath the surface of the mask, sterilization with light will not be able to reach them.
I wouldn't use a urinal either (I never do anyway, as a former licensed plumber, thosef'n things are NASTY imo). I also flush twice with my back turned before using a public toilet.. not ideal but better than not I think.
I work in hospital
Flushing toilets leads to aerosolized water droplets from the toilet spreading around the room and contaminating nearby surfaces[1].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toilet_plume
Right, but you can prepare for potential societal disruption(s) caused by the disease. Even if you don't get sick yourself, you could be impacted.
The coronavirus is over 10x deadlier than the usual flu according to early estimates.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/the-flu-has-already-killed-1...
That said, the serious complication rate is higher than the flu.
The r0 is much higher than the flu.
The disease is spread asymptomatically.
Nobody is ready if the disease does take hold and spreads widely.
Markets are/will continue to take a massive shit.
Correct.
> less than the usual flu
I'm pretty sure that's wrong. From a quick Google the best I could find was an Atlantic article saying the rate is typically around 0.1%. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vac...
So it seems prudent to reiterate that the only causes for social disruption & need to prep would be to have unjustified panic and run at stores like the behavior seen in Italy.
the fatality rate increases with age, up to ~15% for >80. i don't know about you but i have older people in my family that i'm very concerned about.
Age is very significant for mortality rate: 0-9: 0%, ..., 60-69: 3.6%, 70-79: 8.0%, 80+: 14.8%. Also the regional breakdown is apparently a useful approximation of what happens when the healthcare system is overwhelmed (Hubei 2.9%) vs not (other Chinese provinces 0.4%). Also 81% patients reported mild symptoms.
If those beds start to fill up... people that might otherwise be helped through the worst might be in trouble.
https://www.lastampa.it/cronaca/2020/02/27/news/coronavirus-...
I very much dont think that is the way this plays out in the western world.
In China, they welded the doors shut on entire residential buildings leaving the people in there to either die or survive on their own. They bagged and gagged people with elevated temperature and force quarantined them. They had crematoriums working over time.
China has complete military control of their population, this is going to go very differently in the West.
China's process was very effective and probably greatly reduced the rate of infection but there is no way people in other countries are just going to sit silently while the same actions are carried out.
The virus doesn't care whether you believe in governments, and it's just now hitting these regions - Pakistan, Africa, North Korea, etc.
- they've changed their reporting standards multiple times
- they don't seem to be testing enough people because of test kit shortages, because many people seem to have given up going to hospitals when they're sick because they know they won't get in or because they're barricaded in to their homes or forbidden from leaving
- their media censorship makes it difficult to independently verify the numbers they are reporting
The CDC recommends that sick people wear masks to keep droplets in, and that people who directly interact with sick people wear masks while interacting with the sick person (to stop projectile droplets I presume). The CDC does not recommend masks be worn generally.
Masks help remind you not to touch your face, but you can just put tape on your fingers or something for the same effect (this is just my personal idea).
(This is more of a PSA than a direct reply to your comment.)
https://www.repubblica.it/economia/2020/02/26/news/coronavir...
The economic theory on this is rock-solid and yet it seems impossible to educate the general public or government officials regarding the consequences of price controls.
For example, the large increase in price creates perverse incentives to reduce the available supply and make it available at a higher price (eg. buying all the masks at $n and reselling them at a price greater than n).
A higher price also encourages counterfeiting; making fake masks that sell for $1 isn't that profitable, but if they sell for $50, there's definitely more of an incentive to do so.
Once you have many, and if they don't talk together (which would be forbidden), masks would sell lower than what you think
Wear gloves instead, to avoid touching your face.
Yet I wonder: Viruses live longer on a "clean-looking" doorknob than they do in a towel, for example. This was very counter-intuitive to me. So when it comes to a virus, would they live longer on skin or on a bandage or piece of tape?
The issue is that the adhesive from tape is a form of glue. It attracts and keeps hold of germs. Plus, it is extremely hard to get fully off in terms of disinfection purposes.
I had a central line (dialysis catheter) in my chest for 4 months for a procedure called plasma exchange. You cannot take a shower with an exposed central line. A single drop of water on your line, or even the moisture/condensation from the shower can literally cause sepsis, as water has a lot of bacteria in it. This happens no matter how well the line is cleaned.
Anyways, I tried taking a shower by covering the line with a Ziploc bag and putting tape around it. I also cut the fingers off of gloves and /sealed the fingers of the glove onto the line with tape/. I literally put glue on the central line, which runs straight to my heart.
I never ended up with sepsis, due to the line only being in me shortly (4 months), but I did get chewed out by the sterility nurse.
Trust me, it is not a good idea.
For example, in the 90s, roll tape (versus now: single use sterile IV tape) was sometimes used to secure IV lines. Here is a study on IV lines (not central lines):
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1496597/
I was phenomenally stupid and also phenomenally lucky not to go in to sepsis for this move.
I do know. Even though I am currently in pharmaceutical remission, I have cheated death a few times as an adult, and I am more aware of medical risks. You would be surprised to know that I am doing well and prospering, especially if you knew my health situation.
As someone who is in the midst of a difficult medical situation right now (and who cheated death myself 2 years ago during the episode that sent me to ICU and gifted me with yet another chronic condition), I'm very happy for you and hope I can join you in your wellness in the coming months.
Some 15 years ago, I almost fully recovered from a serious medical condition that left me partially paralyzed, in severe pain, and out of work for many months. This time around it's a lot harder, and is taking years instead of months.
Aging sucks.
I think that not recommending masks for everyone is very myopic considering that the virus tends to spread asymptotically.
[1] - https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomati...
That said, I'd urge everyone to get a few P95 [1] masks for themselves and their family members, in the event that you have to accompany them to a hospital, or even to wear in public if you live in an urban environment.
1. P95 have same filtering capacity as N95, but last for much longer.
Lots of people only wash their hands when they use the bathroom, if even that. They touch their faces and mouths a lot more often than they think. If they can learn to change their habits, wash their hands regularly if they go in public, and work from home more often if allowed by their employer, I'd say those are meaningful preparations.
Investing in a little bit of equipment, like barbells or maybe a pull-up bar, can let you do even more exercise at home.
https://www.fitbod.me
I'd even recommend to not worry so much about timing your workouts as this causes too much stress, just focus on the exercises themselves in the beginning to make sure you do them properly.
https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/j...
Zinc supplementation may of course help if you are deficient, but the study can't really tell if 'healthy' Zn2+ concentrations contribute anything to the inhibition of viral replication.
It can be normal, over-active, under-active, and likely both. "working or not" is too simplistic for this discussion.
> A 'boosted' / over-active immune system results in auto-immune diseases like Crohn's (which is what I have).
Yes, but that doesn't mean that a temporary boost couldn't potentially help in certain situations.
Along those lines, I bet if you really needed a specific live vaccine your doctor would have you suspend that drug for a little bit.
I am not without, but my suppliers have rationed some things I buy.
It's wrong, but the question was about what people are doing and thinking.
I think it's important to see what people think and people shouldn't be down voted for being honest.
But I have to be OT and say "a really dangerous variant of the common cold" - It's killing 14% of people over 80 who get it at last estimates. And permanently hurting a lot of people over 80 as well.
And we don't really do flu season as well as we could, as a society we need to step up a bit in general. We could all prepare for even the flu season more than we do. Common cold, perhaps meh.
- Planning purchases for hunkering down for a few weeks: Food, water, batteries, water purifier, battery-powered radio, hand-crank power generator for radio, etc.
- Sold 50% of my stock holdings.
- Putting a large amount cash in my checking account.
- Getting a smaller amount of cash (paper) to have at home.
Even if it depresses in the summer months, it will return in full force next winter (see e.g. flu, common colds, etc).
Best case scenario a working vaccine is invented. But nobody currently has a proven working one (regardless of a few headlines to the contrary) and even if they did that would be 18 months minimum before mass manufacturing could begin.
What I am saying is "bomb shelter"-style hunkering down will likely be ineffective if there's a mass spread in your country because the disease would out-live whatever supplies you have.
After that, who knows. Hopefully there will be a vaccine.
Overall I think it is a good thing. Only by many diverse opinions and goals from many different people can we try everything and see what really works out.
Please provide examples.
- We used to be able to build Hoover Dam. Now it takes literally years to pass a bill to maintain our highways.
- Do I need to remind you what a joke Infrastructure Week has become?
- How are those gun violence stats? Number 1 in the world at something, at least.
- The fastest-growing approach to paying for medical bills, in this country, is a GoFundMe campaign.
- The world financial system was nearly destroyed by inadequately regulated US "finanice industry innovation" in 2008. As Paul Volcker said the following year: “the ATM has been the only useful innovation in banking for the past 20 years”.
- Facebook and Google -- the most successful US companies in history, I think, have destroyed privacy, and are now bringing down democracy. Oh, right, I forgot, Facebook is connecting people. Point for you.
Seriously. What has this country done recently that proves we can do anything productive any longer?
Fasting growing doesn't mean much. Most people have insurance which covers everything. Yes there are too many people on the edges who don't have it, but most people do and don't need gofundme (I suspect some of them have a gofundme anyway as a way to raise money because they can)
Sure we don't do massive society wide projects, but that is because we don't need them. That doesn't mean we can't.
OK, Candide, you may be living in the best of all possible worlds, but I would rather be in one where health care was guaranteed. And yes, while most are "insured", that insurance is often unreliable. This is a solvable, society-wide project, to use your phrase. This country is incapable of pulling it off. (And some of those people resorting to gofundme have insurance, but it is inadequate.)
Look at the superbug problem. We are heading to a time in which antibiotics just no longer work, and what are now minor infections will be fatal. Where is the impetus to solve this society-wide (even world-wide) project? It is not in the financial interest of pharma companies to solve the problem, so we don't. You would think that society would be interested in solving this problem by structuring incentives appropriately. It doesn't happen.
What about climate change? Miami is starting to drown. Other coastal cities are not far behind. The Paris climate agreement is pretty weak, and this country couldn't even stomach that.
Get your head out of the sand.
Having said that, I would expect that in most Western countries, sufficient quantities to cover the most vulnerable people (older people and those with existing heart or respiratory conditions - ie largely the same people selected for annual flu vaccines in many places) will be available by next (Northern hemisphere) winter.
We can't speculate at this point what kind/likelihood of a civil emergency we might face with this or any other disaster that hasn't happened yet.
However, having been through Sandy where we had 16 consecutive days of no power or heat and a snowstorm with a foot of snow and fouled treatment facilities with boil alerts, here's my recommendations:
1) Hold 10x24x16oz bottles of water and use them in FIFO. When you finish one flat, you buy a new one and put it on the bottom of the stack. It's not that crazy to hold 2 weeks of drinking water in your pantry/garage. 2) In many places around the world, the sink water isn't treated at all. Have some sterilizer solution available for washing dishes but don't risk drinking water that isn't treated 3) peanut butter has a really long shelf life, easy to store, is really cheap, and if you don't have nut allergies, not a bad source of nutrition. 4) figure out the electrical needs of critical devices - phones/tablets CPAPs, air machines, etc. GoalZero is a pretty user friendly brand of solar / battery combos. 5) get a 100W 12V adaptor for your car. If you need to recharge something that isn't USB, you can use your car as a simple generator. 6) be prepared to live without heat or A/C but if you do have power, make sure your filters are clean. Ask your hvac guy to recommend the max level of HEPA your HVAC can tolerate. 7) have squirt bottles with disinfectant in every room with a sink.. not just normal countertop cleaning stuff. Bleach IIRC needs 7 minutes to achieve a maximum log reduction of bacteria / viruses so keep in mind when you're cleaning, its not possible to kill everything, you're reducing the load of bad things over a period of time.
The recommendations I've seen have been for 1 gallon per person per day.
That's 14 gallons for just one person for 2 weeks. 56 gallons for a family of 4.
Not that crazy, I guess, but that's still a lot of water.
If that's the case I wonder how a vaccine would work. Weekly shots for everyone until it's gone? That would be hard to manage.
The CDC, amongst other US and foreign government agencies, recommend it. When the CDC speaks, I listen.
Shouldn't you be doing the opposite? Banks go down pretty quickly when society panics.
I sold because I think the risk of further, large declines is greater than the likelihood of a continuing increase.
(In 2008, as that crisis was developing, I also sold everything, and bought back once things returned to a new normal.)
I have the usual spectrum, ranging from more money in safer, long-term investments, to smaller amounts that are liquid. All I've done is to move things moderately toward the more-liquid end of the spectrum.
Gotta limit that blast radius after all.
Most of our suppliers are in India and Nepal but it's business as usual in these countries
Fortunately, since most of us already work remotely for at least some of the time we didn't have any significant issues.
Beyond that, nothing really.
And what happens when the Management goes on Vacation during the holiday break? - Me
* Stunned Management
Distributed/remote companies are amazing for handling disaster scenarios like this. Hurricanes, floods, pandemics, zombies, you name it. We usually just work right through it.
The 4G and internet also need actual interventions. If we must work remotely, internet companies may also have to.
If you read CDC website they also recommend washing hands and avoid touching your face. It is much harder if you have small kids, just don’t forget to also wash their hands if they have been out in public places.
1. Dot's store your toothbrush in the bathroom (at least during the times when you suspect that some family member might get infected). There are fecal matter particles in the bathroom air. You can get the ass-to-mouth transfer in the same household from toothbrushes stored in the bathroom.
2. Close the toilet lid before you flush and leave it closed. It does not solve the issue but it helps.
https://go.discovery.com/tv-shows/mythbusters/videos/surpris...
https://images.victorianplumbing.co.uk/images/Alaska-Combine...
The idea is that they stay there, rather than floating through the air and infecting someone else. While "lots of germs in your sleeve" may trigger our disgust reaction, they aren't a problem until they actually get somewhere where they can reproduce. Our disgust reaction is useful and there for a reason, but a little unfocused for a species that generally understands how germs work now.
It's particularly important for the "first few" sneezes, when you don't know if you're sneezing because of dust and this is just a one-off sneeze like any other, or if it's merely the first of a long series because you've got something and you're blasting viruses. Obviously, if you're sneezing so much that you, shall we say, "exceed the capacity" of your sleeve, then please take additional appropriate steps. But a little bit is still better off shot into your sleeve than the air.
"Most germs can survive on fabrics for some time." [2]
And it seems some germs linger longer on clothes than skin!
"Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), another cold-like virus that can cause serious illness in children, can survive on worktops and door handles for up to 6 hours, on clothing, and tissues for 30 to 45 minutes and on skin for up to 20 minutes." [1]
However, "Flu viruses can also survive as droplets in the air for several hours". [1]
But, "Parainfluenza virus, which causes croup in children, can survive for up to 10 hours on hard surfaces and up to 4 hours on soft surfaces." [1]
So there are no absolutes but it seems to me, the best would be in your hand and then immediately clean. But if that's not feasible, probably vampire style is best. Even though some germs could linger longer on your clothes than hands, if you can't clean your hands immediately then the contact spread risk factor would be worse than the extra linger time.
[1] https://www.nhs.uk/common-health-questions/infections/how-lo... [2] https://www.nhs.uk/common-health-questions/infections/can-cl...
Consider getting a portable bidet as an alternative. All you need is water.
This isn't just about personal protection - the whole community and nation can expect better outcomes of we stagger preparations, lessening the chance and impact of everyone running to the store at the same time. There is no question now that this is an unprecedented event, now is the time to prepare to mitigate risk.
"If the pandemic hits" ... the virus has already hit.
The WHO itself has backed off the Pandemic classification [1].
The virus has an overall 98% survival rate, and most diagnosed cases in the US, are not actually showing any symptoms (which itself is a cause for concern re: spread).
The annual Flu, MERS and SARS were far far worse. The flu kills between 26,000 and 52,000 annually in the US [2], and as much as I love prepping, this just does not fit the bill for the amount of FUD it has generated.
edit: comments are making me re-think my position. COVID is far worse mortality rate wise in 65+ patients vs flu.
1 - https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/who-tries-to-calm-ta...
2 - https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
WHO reports a 34% fatality rate for MERS, while at present it is around 2.4% for COVID-19 [2]. So it would be helpful if you provide sources when throwing down comments like this. I'll admit it's more contagious, as they state below, but again, most US cases are asymptomatic.
1 - https://www.who.int/emergencies/mers-cov/en/
2 - http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-720...
This happened in China, hopefully current measures can prevent breakout infections.
I worry what will happen if the outbreak reaches densely populated areas in India.
"The bottom line is this virus kills people... it kills our elderly and vulnerable... but this is not always the case - young people do die of this disease even in industrialized countries.
People are looking at this saying that but in China they don't have this, they don't have that, etc. If I had COVID-19, I'd want to be treated in China.
We'd go into these hospitals, how many ventilators do you have? 50-60. A scale we aren't used to seeing. How many ECMO systems do you have? 5. We don't have that in Europe.
When we look at how dangerous this disease is, we have to be careful looking at the China data. China know how to keep people alive from COVID - they are super committed to it and they are making a massive investment in it. That is not going to be the case everywhere in the world....
It is a serious disease and I worry that people are going to look at the China numbers and get a false sense of security."
[1] - https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/f9mxwn/for_tho...
[2] - https://youtu.be/-o0q1XMRKYM?t=3058
Actually, to be honest, it would be helpful if everyone refrained from cherry picking information to support their current emotional state.
Please, please, please, let's rely on experts who specialize infectious diseases to do the communicating and go back to our code.
Thank you.
Of course, from what I can tell, growth in mortality has been shrinking in percentage terms. [1]
But if judging based on the early stats, it was literally hundreds of times more deadly than a common flu. Approximately to 4% of people in their 60s who contracted it died. And 15% of those in their 80s who contracted it were killed. The annual flu is not nearly that bad.
[1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-...
That seems pretty dramatic, the earlier article about the disease in China stated that some percentage of people that get infected require ICU attention to oxygenate their blood or they die (and it doesn't seem like it's limited only to old or at risk people).
That seems a lot worse than the seasonal flu?
With SARS and MERS we got lucky because they didn't end up spreading that widely even though the mortality rate was higher. I'm not convinced that's evidence that this won't be a problem.
An agent that killed very quickly e.g. Ebola is actually not a very good bioweapon. You want something with a long incubation period that is infectious before people are symptomatic.
Things that incubate in short order + kill hosts quickly "burn the epidemic out" before it can spread.
Ideally it also can survive outside of a host for some period of time as well.
1 - Demon in the Freezer by Richard Preston
Where did you hear this? Why would these people even be tested, much less diagnosed, if they are not showing symptoms?
It's Because they were evacuated e.g. from Cruise ships with other symptomatic patients, and were quarantined + tested, it's a CDC standard protocol [2]. They even put one of them down the street from me as we speak [3]
1 - https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/quality/15th-us-corona...
2 - https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/yellowbook/2020/posttravel-eval...
3 - https://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/10751105-181/sonoma-count...
WHO tainted its image by being too slow/cautious to react.
The ilness may have great survival rate, but nobody knows what percentage of survivors will have nasty long-term health condition. The virus can smoke your heart, or other organs. It is new, Chinese are falling like flies, that's why alarm is in place.
This is NOT TRUE. I urge you to stop relying on the news and look at the literature that is being published in real time. I don't have time for a full response but 15% of cases require ICU care to survive. There are less than 100k ICU beds in the U.S. and the virus spreads 2-5x (R0 estimates from 3 up to 8 depending on source) more readily than SARS or MERS or the 1918 Spanish flu.
Now is the time to be alarmed. The media is behind, for understandable reasons, do not rely on them when in 2020 you have access to the same sources they do. The literature being publishes is almost universally grave. At this point anyone minimizing ncov by comparing it to regular flu is being irresponsible.
And this accomplishes what, exactly? Shortages of gloves and canned goods?
Being “alarmed” is not a positive choice, even if your worst-case projections of the future turn out to be true.
If they all go and stock up, what with the JIT-style of many supermarkets, I wouldn't be surprised to encounter shortages.
Even just to avoid the inconvenience of that, stocking up now, while the majority of the population is not too concerned, seems prudent and even beneficial to everyone else
In all seriousness, I'm truly baffled what motivates you to stand out so strongly in your anti-hysteria hysteria. I mean, I'm the anxious type who just like to prepare for stuff just in case, especially if the cost is low, but you appear to go actively out of your way to spend energy on countering any degree of concern, and it's frustratingly difficult to understand the underlying motivation.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Saeed_al-Sahhaf
- SARS case fatality rate = 15% (WHO - 1)
- MERS case fatality rate = 34.4% (WHO - 2)
- COVID19 case fatality rate = 2.3% (WHO - 3^)
1- https://www.who.int/csr/sars/en/WHOconsensus.pdf
2-https://www.who.int/emergencies/mers-cov/en/ MERS case fatality rate =
3 - https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...
^ estimation efforts are ongoing and may change.
China has been overwhelmed. They ran out of testing kits weeks ago. They have been turning people away from hospitals for months. Major infection areas have been under lockdown, where people are not allowed to leave their homes or drive, even for emergency trips to the hospital. Their official reported diagnosed cases are nowhere the true numbers. They've also punished doctors for reporting new cases. It's all a giant sham.
This pandemic is revealing just how incompetent global organizations and news media are.
Edit: I just read that the WHO also has some incentive to downplay the virus - $425 million in catastrophe bonds were issued that may default if the virus is officially labeled a pandemic...can't seem to find the actual default conditions but there's a clear conflict of interest here. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/pandemic-bon...
“ On the face of it, the class B bond should have incurred losses during the 2018 ebola crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the recent coronavirus from Wuhan, China, as both have resulted in deaths north of 250 people, the primary condition for a payout.”
“ But an important secondary condition states that there must be at least 20 deaths in a second country for the bond to release any funds, a requirement that has not been met by the coronavirus or the ebola outbreak.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-world-bank-has-an-insu...
If I understand correctly, even the effect of weather/heat on various strains of viruses is extremely difficult to predict because of how many other factors play a role (air-conditioning, for example).
Now consider that COVID-19 is much more contagious than the flu and it has a significantly higher case fatality rate than the flu.
Furthermore, people can and do protect themselves against the flu with a vaccine. There is no vaccine for COVID-19. And still further, no one is immune because the disease is new to humans.
So yes, while covid-19 has a 98% survival rate, a widespread outbreak could kill hundreds of thousands of people.
This is an event which illuminates the folly of relying excessively on media and government. I think it's easy to forget that these organizations are managed and staffed by people just like you and me - worse in many cases, as the average person is not exactly sharing research papers with their grandma, so to speak.
Here's one of the conservative estimates for R0 straight out of China. There's another which estimates 6-8 but I'll leave that to you to look for.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197122...
It's now an epidemic, not at pandemic level.
You say this as if 2% of people dying is somehow nothing. Think about everybody in your life that you care deeply about. Relatives, friends, mentors, etc. If this goes pandemic, at least one person in that category will likely die.
- if the health care system is overwhelmed and they can't get treatment for other life-threatening illnesses
- if there are medicine shortages (because a lot of medicines are made in China, and it has shut down a lot of its manufacturing)
- if people lack necessities like food as panic sets in people start hoarding
- if people start refusing to help each other out of fear they'll get infected
In addition, something like 20% of the people who do survive can suffer lung damage that can seriously impact their life.
This is not something to be complacent about. Prepare and take care.
This is serious. You don't have to panic, but this is serious.
And If the WHO and the CDC are “misinformation”- so be it.
Also, the steps that authorities might take in response to that fear...
> However, it is important to note that current global circumstances suggest it is likely that this virus will cause a pandemic.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html#risk-...
Don't bother with masks or anything, you probably won't be able to avoid infection anyway. Also I'm already convinced the panic & paranoia will cause way more disruption then the virus itself.
Evidence shows that if taken before exposure it reduces the risk of catching the cold, and if taken during the first 24 hours of symptoms it reduces the length and severity of the cold.
Some evidence suggests it works for the SARS Coronaviruses too (i.e. not just Rhinoviruses)
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/47794995_Zn_Inhibit...
Beware. Taking Zinc regularly, especially in the high doses necessary for the cold/flu resistance effect, is NOT a good idea. It leads copper deficiency and anemia.
Despite the rest of your post being overly alarmist this is a good recommendation. You should have extra staple food at all times. The cost is minimal, you can keep extra of foods you'd eat anyway, and the benefit in an unlikely supply chain disruption could be significant.
It would be a pretty monotonous diet but better than the alternative.
I drink bottled/filtered only due to negative side effects (for me personally, most don’t have any) of drinking chlorinated water, so simply increasing my input buffer is really straightforward.
- I stopped taking public transportation on January 20th; so I'm biking to work now. I'm much more healthy because of this decision
- invested in Gold, Gold stocks and puts expiring March 20th betting against the market (Though I did most of this 2 years ago because of the trade war, and the puts were purchased in December)
- I've got some extra food and water, and lots of purell
- I've called my grandparents and told them, the virus is very dangerous effecting older people [1]. I told them to stock up on food medicine, and if they hear word of it spreading to stay indoors.
[1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-fatality-rates...
Shorting stocks to take advantage of a disaster strikes me as one of the most unethical, immoral things one can do. People still do it, but it doesn't make it right.
(apologies for the moralizing -- my sentiments are not directed at OP who was merely musing and shooting the breeze -- but at amoral Wall Street types).
Airlines provide fast connectivity between cities for people and goods, which is valuable in a disaster situation, and by shorting a stock to make a few bucks, you'd be creating unfavorable transportation economics in a disaster situation and possibly worsening supply chain constrictions. A short seller would be profiting off the hardship of others.
With earthquakes if statically speaking a massive earthquake hits on a roughly 1 in 500 year interval, the stresses at the plate boundary are much more likely to be greater at year 600 than at year 1 after a massive earthquake.
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/events/1906calif/18a...
If you're interested in the statistics around recurrence times, can I recommend this [1]? It's fairly well written and clear and it deals with this issue fairly comprehensively and directly.
[1] - http://www.crm.cat/en/About/People/Researchers/ACorral/Docum...
"the longer since the last earthquake, the longer the expected time till the next". "the belief that the longer the time to get an earthquake,the bigger its size, is false".
That said, being ill with covid19 sounds like it would be similar to the flu for many people, so I'll stock up on OTC medicines that provide some symptom relief / make it possible to sleep. Mucinex, Nyquil, things of that nature.
Beyond that... I'll add to my stock of non-perishable foods: rice, beans, beef jerky, trail mix, and such-like. I plan to stock up on some bottled water as well, but I don't focus so much on water since A. it's heavy/bulky and hard to store and B. I live near many natural freshwater streams/creeks/lakes/rivers/etc. and I would rather focus on a "water purification capability" than on just stocking large amounts of water. To that end, I already keep some water purification supplies. But the thing I'm thinking about now, is building a distilling outfit. That way, as long as I have water (fresh or salt) available, and fire making supplies and firewood, I can make relatively clean water.
I also plan to add a little more to my stockpile of candles, lamp oil, batteries, etc. And I'll probably use this as an excuse to add to my (small) stash of 9mm ammo as well.
https://www.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/english/guide/bosai/index.html
Soap and sanitizer. Mostly soap. Soap is equally effective as sanitizer in washing hands, etc. Soap is also much cheaper and more available. If the local region goes into lock down, you're not going out much so soap will work well.
Get one to two weeks of food and supplies in case. There isn't going to be a global shortage, but we may see short term runs on supplies. Include stuff like tooth brush, mouth wash, and etc. For my wife I also stocked up on a larger supplies of feminine hygiene products.
Masks. I got 20 per family member in our local area. For when you need to go out and restock food. Also learn how to properly use the mask.
I take a prescription medication that is a controlled substance. I feel like a criminal each time I fill it. I'm only given exactly the amount I need for the next 30 days and it routinely causes problems when I need to travel out of state around the time of my next refill.
I really wish there was some way of saying "I've been taking this stuff for years, I've clearly never abused it, please give me some buffer for emergencies."
This is clearly a case of a law that may have been well-intentioned majorly infringing upon your rights.
This could be easily discerned through individual scrutiny or large-scale automated analysis.
Ups the dosage to twice as much and breaks the meds in half. Usually the price is still the same but now there’s twice as much.
Stops taking the meds on some weekends to create a buffer.
Asks a doctor to try another similar medications and express fear about going off the current med incase the new one doesn’t work. Unintended side effect is that you now have twice as much for that month.
Gradually reduce medication dosage and occasionally stop taking it. If you can live without it you’ll be more independent.
Fat, ash, water.
https://www.frugalandthriving.com.au/homemade-lard-soap/
https://www.thesprucecrafts.com/how-to-make-soap-517084
Apparently, it's not that dangerous of a disease assuming you have medical care available.
So, now is the time to get it... when you have the entire intensive care unit st your disposal. If you hide out in your bunker, wear your mask, and follow the CDC's advice, you'll probably not get it for a few months. But when you do, instead of having a nice empty intensive care unit at your disposal, you'll be laying in a hospital corridor, unattended, surrounded by body bags and moaning patients.
So, my preparation is to book a trip to Wuhan with a layover in Italy. Tickets are super cheap.
>There were a few interstitial mononuclear inflammatory infiltrates, but no other substantial damage in the heart tissue
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2...
This is the entire premise behind vaccinations.
Regrettably, some viruses-- such as flu -- come in several different strains during a season; an immunity to one may not result in an immunity to another (but, an immunity to any strain of influenza seems to limit the severity of infection with other strains.) And some illnesses -- such a the common-cold -- are caused by several totally different viruses; an immunity to one doesn't make you immune to the 200+ other types of viruses that give you "the cold."
But, I've seen nothing to date indicating there are numerous COVID-19 strain floating around. That would be unusual.
This isn't always the case, chickenpox can lie dormant for most of your life and reactivate as a far worse shingles. There are some sources claiming reinfection is possible and that it's worse than the initial infection for coronavirus, I'd take that with a large dose of salt for now, but it's not safe to assume you'll be immune once you beat it, even if it doesn't cause long term damage.
I bet if you showed up and tested positive for COVID-19 you'd be given an entire floor to yourself. Definitely your own room.
At least for now...
Make your bets... If you think this will get worse get it now and live with lifelong heart problems. If you think this will get better wait as long as you can in hopes you get the less deadly version.
I'm personally holding out for a breakthrough in vaccines that mean I don't get it at all. Time will tell if I'm right. Time will also kill me - the only question is when.
Do you have any proof that coronavirus causes lifelong heart problems? TMK this has not been established.
I don't even know what my company will do if we simply cannot fill our orders.
I am preparing to refinance my house though, the virus is really shaking up the stock market and pushing the mortgage rates down.
-Stocked up on food/water -Stocked up my medicine cabinet -Reduced my exposure to stocks by 75% -Turned off all automated investments -Consuming zerohedge via RSS for news ahead of the normal cycle -not trusting a word of any government mouthpiece
Joking, but although we are well prepared for isolation (work mostly from home, live in the countryside in one of the remotest countries in the world, have off-grid solar and 3 rainwater tanks and could probably forage enough to live for a long time from fishing and gathering), all of that is undone by having a school aged kid.
That means unavoidable contact with a wide group of other kids, from a variety of different home situations, several of whom may have runny noses etc. at any point in time.
If things get really bad I imagine schools will close. If kids are “old enough” they may get some remote homework. Not great but doable.
But if you have a toddler you are pretty much stuffed. I can’t imagine what stay at home quarantine would to my 3 year old. It gets bad enough when we get stuck for the weekend because of storms... but TWO WHOLE WEEKS OR MORE?!!
- I work remotely, so I can hunker down at home and have my income totally unaffected.
- I've close to 6 months worth of food, and I've been buying more in the last month as the news continues. I can give some tips on what I think is good inexpensive food to get in case anyone is interested.
- I'm fasting regularly, which will realistically extend my food supply. Most people calculate their food supply by 3 meals a day plus snacks, but you can go days without eating. Right now I'm closing in on 72 hours without food. I'm perfectly fine. You get used to it. The key is getting your electrolytes and getting out of your sugar addiction.
- I have lots of water stored up, although that's not going to be much of a problem with COVID-19. Several filters meant to remove viruses, though I have a distiller so I would probably just use that if I was really that paranoid about my water, which I probably won't be.
- My medicine cabinet has everything you can think of and more. I have 2 first aid kits and a trauma kit. I have what it takes to turn the entrance to my home into a decon chamber, if need be. I have tons of bleach and disinfectants.
- I have full gas masks with filters, including adapters for 3M filters, which should be perfectly sufficient to remove droplets in the air. I also have full tyvek suits in case there's a worst case scenario but I have to leave my home. I have lots of N95 masks, but obviously you can't count on those for very much. I certainly don't have the belief that even the gas masks will prevent anything. It's just hedging my bets.
---
All that said, I am not paranoid. I don't even have anxiety over it. Those things I mentioned would only come into play if things went extremely bad. My life wouldn't be very different if I had to stay indoors for months on end, so long as utilities continue to operate. Even if the supply chain broke down, I would probably be better off staying indoors than trying to bug out to somewhere else.
One other thing I'm doing is trying to sell off a high value items I've been holding on to, but I'm selling them off now because the money could save me from strife if there's widespread infection and my job totally falls apart.
Isn't fasting the opposite of storing food for an emergency?
Surely storing food on your body as fat is one of the safest and easiest ways to store it.
The truth is that while I am gradually burning body fat intentionally, I've still got weeks worth of fat on my and probably will when I decide to reduce my fasting back to eating one meal a day. I'd rather burn that fat and eat minimally for the first week or two of a crisis before digging into my reserves. Let's say I learn that the supply chain will be broken for longer than expected; I want to have food around so I can calmly address the issue without having to panic about where I'm going to get my next meal.
To put it simply, I don't think most people have the discipline to not pig out on their earthquake kit or their pantry if they're stuck at home during a pandemic. There's a bit of a caloric tradeoff in gaining that discipline, but I think it's worth it.
- 2 Liters of water
- 1/2 teaspoon of pink salt
- 1 teaspoon of potassium chloride
- 1/4 teaspoon of food grade epsom salt
- Lemon and stevia used sparingly to taste
It's not the best tasting thing ever, but you get used to it. Using filtered water will make it much more palatable. I think salts make poor tap water quality more obvious.
You can always drink Powerade Zero or something like that. I don't think there's really anything wrong with that, and I drink those sometimes. It's just more expensive and the artificial sweetener might spike insulin.(I doubt that's a big deal) The recipe I described is pretty dirt cheap.
I used to have a hard time fasting for more than a day or doing a ketogenic diet because I simply wasn't getting my electrolytes. This was accelerated by the fact that I was drinking way too much water and urinating them out. Replacing electrolytes throughout the day keeps me from feeling miserable.
Even at 24 hours you begin to recognize how much of modern life revolves around eating. Trying taking a stroll through the city while fasting. Within 10 seconds you see people eating icecream, candy bars, cokes, a zillion restaurants, convenience stores, not to mention alcohol.
With fasting I found I had low energy and would be really, really bored. There was a lot of temptation to fill time with just munching on something.
I also found that when I broke my fast, I didn't eat as much as I expected to. No huge pigout meal or anything.
I am not religious, but I think Ramadan is an example of a really healthy religious practice because it reminds people of their relation to food.
My line of thinking is that, early on in a crisis, I don't know how long a crisis is going to last or how intense the looting will be. It could be that a week goes by and all the store shelves are bare; although I'll have potentially put myself at risk by lowering my body fat, I'd still feel more secure having extra food for myself and perhaps someone else than having eaten most of it when I didn't need to and now there's no more food to go around. Having extra food around the point at which I may need to get out of Dodge seems preferable to me than to hit the road with only bodyfat and few to no provisions.
I don't think there's a good answer to that. You make a great point. I do still think fasting is a useful in helping people break food addictions and learn self control.
If it comes down to who can just survive the longest with zero calories, someone weighing 300 pounds is probably going to out-last me. But if there's any level of physical or mental activity required to survive and/or actually acquire calories, I'm going to have a big advantage.
EDIT And if, as another commenter mentioned, it comes down to making a low number of calories last a long time -- again I'll have a big advantage.
Likewise. To some extent, I recommend doing some prep precisely so that you don't have to panic. If you have some basic prep, you can worry a lot less about "what if earthquake" or "what if power goes out for a week" or "what if pandemic", because you know that while you may not be prepared for everything and it may be hard, at least you're going to be caught completely flat-footed.
Also, I would just feel like an idiot sitting there in my house in week 3, wishing I had X, when X was like $12 or whatever trivial sum just a month ago. For values of X like "soap" or "shampoo" or something, I'm not even "saving money". I was just too lazy to make sure I had a stock on hand, despite literally months of warning this quarantine was likely coming. I'm trying to help future-me to not feel like an idiot.
I own a .22 long rifle and have tons of ammo. I've been thinking of getting a glock but haven't gotten around to it. It's not the best for self defense, but it's a heck of a lot better than no gun at all. It's ridiculously easy to shoot accurately. The ammo is cheap and ubiquitous, which is another advantage.
There's other defense items that I would use first if possible. I own some cans of police grade pepper gel, tasers, a slingshot, and a combat knife, among other things.
You weren’t going to exercise your first amendment rights because the community frowns upon your second amendment rights...
It’s absolutely absurd that people feel afraid to talk about guns because a bunch of leftists hate everything our country stands for.
Good on you for talking about guns anyway.
https://www.ammoman.com/
I'm interested! I've mostly heard of canned foods and the military-style rations / dried meals that last many years (although those are actually a bit pricey, I think).
I don't want to discourage anyone from buying prepared meals if that's what would make them feel better. A hefty fee for some tubs of ready-to-go meals that last 20+ years can provide peace of mind. That said, here's a list of food that I stockpile that I think are the best value:
(Most of this will seem obvious, but I've also owned lots of survival meals, and a lot of what's described here is what's in those anyway)
- Peanut butter: One jar is more than enough fat/sugar/protein for a day's worth of calories, multi-purpose, can be eaten straight, no cooking required, portable, doesn’t require can opener. Powdered peanut butter exists but is more expensive and I don’t really care for it, but it might make sense to you. A jar at Wallmart is $1.58.)
- Canned meat: I normally don't eat canned meat, but in a crisis, having it can be a morale booster. Spam has all the advantages of peanut butter, but in meat form; A can of "Luncheon Meat" at either Wallmart is also around $1.50. Corned beef hash is very tasty and cheap. Canned tuna and pink salmon are good, too.
- Dried fruit: I prefer banana chips because they keep the best. Takes no preparation. Can be added to all sorts of things as well.
- Oatmeal: It's cheap and versatile. It requires water, but it doesn't necessarily need to be cooked. You can just use cold water and let it soak for a while. Tasty, filling, and can be made plain, sweet, or even savory. Add a boillon cube to a pot of oatmeal and you've got an easy evening meal. It's not great, but it'll fill you up.
- Pasta: Ramen noodles, mac n' cheese, etc. Stuff that's quick to make and requires the least preparation.
- Rice: A 20 lb sack of rice can be as cheap as $8, perhaps less depending on where you live.
- Honey: Very versatile, can be used in place of sugar in a lot of cases, needs no refrigeration, lasts ages.
- Ghee or shortening: Both are shelf stable at room temperature and can be used in place of butter.
- Hot sauce, salt, spices, etc. All are dirt cheap but can liven up dull food. As I mentioned before, bouillon cubes are handy.
- Coffee crystals, hot cocoa powder
- Vinegar: For cleaning and can also add flavor.
- Alcohol: We can all use a little liquid morale on occasion. Good for sanitation and can be used as fuel in desperation.
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A lot of people recommend beans. I don't because they take longer to cook than rice and they're too fibrous; have fun eating too many beans and sharting your pants while the world is dying around you! It's not like it's bad to have beans, but I've gotten rid of most of mine for that reason at this point.
If you could only buy one item, I'd definitely go with peanut butter.
Often people recommend that you prepare for disasters by buying things that you will periodically use up, so they don't get really stale or spoiled. I really can't face eating the amount of spam that it would require to insure against a significant disaster, assuming there isn't one. Or peanut butter.
If I have water and the ability to cook, potatoes seem like pretty much the cheapest source of calories that won't quickly spoil as long as you keep them where it's dark and cool. I wonder why people don't recommend stocking up on them?
> I really can't face eating the amount of spam that it would require to insure against a significant disaster, assuming there isn't one. Or peanut butter.
Hah! Admittedly, I usually go through more of the pasta, oatmeal, and rice over time than I do the other things like spam. However, I've got a can of spam here that has a "best by" date of 2025. It probably will last beyond that if the conditions are right. So let's think about this... Let's say you have 30 cans of spam, enough to have one every day for a month. If they last about 5 years on the shelf, that means you'd have to eat 1 can every other month if I understand the math correctly. Doesn't sound too bad to me! Of course this does mean keeping somewhat close track of what's closer to expiration.
> If I have water and the ability to cook, potatoes seem like pretty much the cheapest source of calories that won't quickly spoil as long as you keep them where it's dark and cool. I wonder why people don't recommend stocking up on them?
I don't know. I have no experience with storing potatoes, so I don't know how long they last on their own. That seems like a good idea on the face of it. Sorta off topic, I do know one guy who stealthily plants potatoes in the foothills and occasionally digs them up to eat, with the side motivation that they'd be supplemental survival food if need be. I don't know how practical that is, but that's kinda neat nonetheless.
Awesome username, btw.
Doing anything consistently over time sounds easier than doing it in a hurry.
Basically: - cream of tartar (no cream, it's just potassium bicarbonate)
- spinach / watercress / swiss chard (for magnesium)
- table salt ( for sodium and chloride)
- coffee (although not super high in electrolytes, it's got a great balance of them, and if you drink 5 cups or more it really adds up)
Don't go with sports drinks (they're only good for sodium and contain very little other electrolytes).