Microsoft recommends WA and CA employees work from home (news.microsoft.com)
Just got notice from Microsoft HR that we're to work from home when possible due to COVID-19, through 3/25.
Edit: official announcement https://news.microsoft.com/2020/03/04/kurt-delbenes-march-4-guidance-to-king-county-employees/
70 comments
[ 1.5 ms ] story [ 131 ms ] thread[0]: https://news.microsoft.com/2020/03/04/kurt-delbenes-march-4-...
I could see things like Hulu and Pandora being less mission critical than other sites but then they blocked YouTube and, probably because google mixes domains a lot, gMail got caught in the net. People were not happy about that.
Virtualbox gets around it just fine. =)
It's ranged from engineers claiming they can't work without streaming music to backend office staff saying they need YouTube to help them understand how to work Microsoft Office.
gMail is an interesting edge case, though. I keep a tab open all day long as well as do probably a lot of people. But it's not for company business so it seems like that's not a place to complain. But people are.
Seriously, to any of you CEO/CTOs tuning in out there: the next time you're lining up a RIF just block Netflix for an afternoon and tag the people that complain to IT. There's your low-hanging fruit.
why the hell are you logging into personal accounts from work devices
like sometimes you need to check something on your personal accounts, but that's usually a one-off to do with a private browser. anecdote: i applied to grad school and got a reference from my boss but there were some issues and had to log in to the school account to check things.
that said, unless you're in a secure or radio-free facility use your damn phone.
COVID-19/SARS-cov-2 is something to take seriously for several reasons:
- To reiterate an important point: "Healthy" infected people go around unwittingly spreading it for several days to a week, so you have no idea who's really sick. And you have no idea how many people in public actually have it at any one time. It's another reason this pathogen is so successful.
- It's a terrible flu for most.
- It can quickly turn life-threatening. A number of bodies were discovered in Wuhan of people trying to walk or drive themselves to the hospital, but they died before reaching it.
- FIXED: If hospitalization is needed, the average CFR is 16% (Russian roulette odds) and 49% for critical condition.
- There is no treatment.
It's going to be a full pandemic in 7-21 days (depending on the area), and last from 19-35 days. For example, someone already died from it within 40 mi / 64 km of where my mom lives in a rural/suburban area. You have to assume the number of infected is 10-30x the number of identified cases because the CDC has strict PUI criteria that are turning away patients. (Oh, and it costs $2000±1000 if you take the test and test negative.)
This is only true for people who are listed in “critical” condition. The fatality rate for most hospitalized people is much lower.
According to the newest WHO report (also posted on the frontpage of HN) this doesn't appear to be the case. There are apparently few asymptomatic cases and the disease mainly is spread by people who are symptomatic.
>You have to assume the number of infected is 10-30x the number
This sounds like pure speculation and is probably not a reasonable thing to assume.
> Knowing that transmission was initiated on Jan 15 allows us to estimate the total number of infections that exist in this cluster today. Our preliminary analysis puts this at 570 with an 90% uncertainty interval of between 80 and 1500 infections.
0: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/02/coronavirus-...
So, what would 570 (out of King + Snohomish County population of 3 million) mean? 22% of the population is under 18, so something like 125 minors would have had it (King County has ~600 schools).
The doubling period is 7 days, so ~275 of those cases would have been in week prior to March 2 and ~570 new cases could be expected between March 3-10. If 20% of those need hospitalization[1], that would be ~100 new beds.
With 570 patients (and 275 new), contact tracing is both impossible and ineffective. Let's optimistically assume that people notice their fever immediately and self-quarantine flawlessly. Even then, we don't know who these people encountered in the few days before symptoms began and can't notify them specifically. Either we accept whatever retransmission rate occurs during that period, or do what we can to reduce it by reducing the population-wide minutes spent within 6' of other people.
[1]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/coronavirus-in-i... and others
It is speculation, but not pure speculation - there is some data to back it up.
Trevor Bedford [0] is a researcher at Fred Hutch in Seattle and a professor at UW, focusing on genomic sequencing of viruses.
He estimated two days ago [1] that the number of cases was in the hundreds, with a large degree of uncertainty:
> This approach leads to a similar estimate of the number of current infections at 330 with a 90% uncertainty interval of between 20 and 1500 infections.
This is solely an estimate of the infections here in the Seattle area, based on gene sequencing.
0: https://bedford.io/team/trevor-bedford/
1: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234589820946534401
Beats joining a team and getting getting covid-19
https://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/health/news/2020/March/4-co...
Maybe an exception for those living in Coos Bay?
0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bodies_of_water_of_Seattle#/me...
1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puget_Sound#/media/File:Map_pu...
0. https://news.microsoft.com/2020/03/04/kurt-delbenes-march-4-...
Tech workers going WFH seems like it will be totally ineffectual by itself.
1. Most other workers can't afford to take time off, aren't permitted to, or can't do their jobs remotely.
2. Schools aren't implementing study-at-home yet.
3. There isn't mass testing in place yet.
For #1 it seems like we need some kind of massive billion gov disaster insurance bailout to compensate people. And someone still needs to do essential services, so a skeleton crew needs to be paid overtime and tested regularly by health officials.
For #2 this could be done tomorrow if it was ordered by health departments. The main downside would be people being forced to stay home from work, but at least this problem can be mitigated by families/friends.
For #3 to be implemented at the scale of millions of people, would probably require deploying the US military going up and down streets requesting samples.
Anything short of a stay-at-home period seems like it's guaranteed to get us the majority infection rate that will kill millions, mostly our parents and grandparents but a large number of young people too.
The damage to the economy of this could be huge. It seems better to overreact now, pay a huge bill ($1+ trillion, if need be), and prevent a massive loss of loss and/or economic depression.
Most of the info I've seen on this suggest that the young aren't particularly susceptible to the virus.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/ch...
I hope that the mortality rate turns out to be lower than it appears at the moment (i.e. an undercount of infected people).
Are you serious? Martial law (let’s at least start by spelling it properly) is not something you just throw out there and change a setting to disable once you’re done with.
Is it better to let millions die or risk the long-term health of the economy?
Why not force people to stay home and watch Netflix for 2 weeks? With exceptions wherever it makes sense.
I ask this as politely as I can: do you know what it is you’re asking for when suggesting the enactment of Martial Law here?
1. If we get to a 70% infection rate, and the mortality rate is (a low) 1%, that's 2+ million dead.
2. A vaccine is likely 18+ months away, which means it won't be here in time.
3. There is no real hope of stopping the spread without drastic measures.
There are more options available than the two absurd options you presented. They may require more will from elected leaders and public health officials, but I take serious exception to immediately suggesting that we either suspend civil liberties or let people die.
There are several more options available before Martial Law should be allowed in the same room as options still on the table.
What option requires "more will" from health officials that would actually stave off a mass infection? They all seem to be explaining how powerless they are to stop the spread.
Experts seem pretty unanimous in explaining that this is going to become a mass infection. They don't seem to be considering a martial law option, and yet it seems the only thing that could prevent it.
I'm actually not cavalier about suggestion martial law. This just seems like one of those rare public safety situations that might warrant it.
We could try asking people to stay home but this seems like it would result in huge compliance problems, which would elongate the stay-at-home period. Whereas the vast majority of people would stay home under threat of arrest.
https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/aboutlawsregulationsquarantin...
There are links at the bottom to specific legislation.
https://theprint.in/health/hindu-mahasabha-plans-gaumutra-pa...
These are not a group of random crank. These guys have a sympathetic and serious listener in the Indian government.
As an Indian all I can say is, "heaven help us", oh wait, they have that covered already.
For non Seattle folk SLU is South Lake Union, home to many Amazon buildings as well as Google and Facebook