Ask HN: People are panic buying. What to do?

You many run out of things temporarily until more deliveries arrive and they stack the shelves. There will be no long term shortages.

It's a good idea to buy and store some durable supplies because you may need to self quarantine for few weeks. It's also a good idea to shop less frequently and buy more at once to avoid getting infection. It's unfortunate that everyone decides to do it at the same time.

'I need to do something to protect my family' is very core need under threat. When there is little you can do, you take little more toilet paper so that you have done something. It's both silly and very human.

These are not ordinary times. Seems that it takes quite a lot of time for a lot of people to grasp the severity of the situation.

My take is that in the near term (1-2 months), there will be a shortage of a lot of produce, especially food. I really hope I'm wrong.

I suggest you stock up everything for 2-4 weeks - it's something I've done. My plan is to go out buying every 2 weeks or so.

Why is it illogical? Often there is a deeper logic than what appears on the surface.

Nassim Taleb pointed out on twitter recently that when interest rates are zero (in reality negative with inflation), buying tons of non-perishable goods isn't really that bad of an idea. The time value of the money is arguably better sitting in toilet paper than cash.

To answer your question, yes it really is possible that we run out of basic goods. That's why people are "panicking". Personally I don't see it as super likely, but you could reasonably argue that it's probable.

I hate it when people call it panic buying. It's not a panic. People are preparing themselves to have food for 2 weeks. That's what you should do as well.

In fact what everyone should have done is stockpiling gradually over the last couple of weeks. I went grocery shopping today and I only had to buy a few things because I was already prepared when there was still enough in the stores.

Be smart, think about what you need to get by without being able to go to the store for 2 weeks. I see lots of people buying stuff like bread, but you don't wanna eat bread all the time, do you? Also it goes bad pretty quickly. I think most of the bread that has been bought will end up in the dumpster.

Humans are not logical animals. There's a lot of criticism on modelling human making logical decisions in economics. In some other fields humans are modelled as fluids or herds, devoid of individual judgement/decision making.

Some items will be restocked, some others may not due to supply chain disruption. Look online for DIY solutions or alternatives as there are plenty. In some cities Asian supermarkets might be a viable option since many Asians have stocked up like weeks ago and they avoid crowded places now.

Stock up a modest amount yourself. If people are manufacturing a shortage by panic-buying, then you don't need to do the same thing, but you do need to prepare for that manufactured shortage itself. We made sure we've got a week or two's worth of stuff we already use. I bought an extra pack of toilet paper; I didn't shovel the entire shelf into my cart.

Since there is no fundamental supply issue (at least for items like groceries and toilet paper) this will follow the same curve as other "panic buying" - stores will be pretty barren for about a week or so, then everyone will realize it's not Armageddon and go on normally.

The exact same thing happened a couple years ago WRT gas in Texas. There was no actual shortage, but because of the hurricane there was fear buying that there would be a shortage, so people showed up to gas stations literally filling up garbage cans with gas, and then there was an actual shortage.

If possible, though, I would definitely recommend stocking up on essentials when things get back to normal. I'm not worried about doomsday, just irrational humans clearing out the shelves at the slightest hit of a negative event.

>What would the sane way to go about it?

Plan for at least a week, if not two ahead. This depends on the number of people in the household.

>Is it really possible that we can run out of things like milk and diapers nowadays?

1. Someone correct me if I am wrong but cargo transports haven't stopped (ships, planes, trucks, trains). These things will keep coming in and stocking up the necessary stores.

2. People will stock up at once and then the craze will subside.

3. Just-In-Time works great when things go well, not so great when things aren't going well. Countries have warehouses stocked with (non-perishable?) food in case things don't go well.

>This is the first time I'm seeing this happen in my life :(

When this whole thing is over, go and volunteer in some third-world backwater shithole of a country and help them out. For many parts of the world, this blip of a "food shortage crisis" is the standard fare, along with a general lack of, well, everything.

Also, a good portion of the western population does not know how to cook, or has a very limited range of cooking, baking and food preparation skills. Something to consider.

I would assume that you will have basic utilities without interruption -- water, electricity. Supply chains could, theoretically, have disruptions as the disease runs through the world. I am not saying they will; just that they can. If it happens the affect on you and yours of not having extra is extremely significant. That's enough of a reason to buy what you can.

You cannot go back and time, but after things settle down (they will) look at your budget and what it takes to have a couple of weeks extra of necessary items. It's not super expensive to buy rice and beans if you are on a budget, then rotate your supply when the rice starts to get old. If you have more money you can get something with less monotonous flavor: canned food, dehydrated, freeze dried, whatever. You may need it twice in your life, but when you do, it will be the wisest thing you have every done.

Its easy to judge other people without knowing their situation.

It depends on where you are, and how far the virus is in your country/state/city/region.

It also depends on if you can order groceries online and have them delivered. Though there might be extra costs attached and there's possibly environmental impact I believe this to be the best method to avoid further infections. If you prepare to have the virus, or to avoid getting it, going less to grocery store and making sure you got a supply makes sense.

We're currently ill (probably not COVID-19) and my daughter of 2 had diarrhea and vomiting. I made sure she got enough pain relievers, because our supply was running out.

There is also a large difference between buying a little bit more supplies, and buying very large amounts...

We are not going to run out of most groceries. The primary advantage of stocking up is to make it possible to stay home.

If you don't have Covid-19, staying home limits your risk of getting it and then passing it on. If you do catch it, having enough supplies to manage a mild case at home also limits the likelihood of passing it on.

As long as community transmission is low in your area, stocking up today in order to be able to stay home for the next couple of weeks seems to make sense.

This is a collective fight. The average person can aid the global effort through the simple effort of avoiding in-person human contact. (Reaching out electronically can help us feel connected, too!)

this is a worldwide problem at the moment.

Actually seems like a pretty rational thing to do. People will stay home more, cook more frequently, and obviously need more toilet paper than usual (especially when the entire family starts staying home more). Most importantly, people probably prefer to go shopping less frequently so you naturally end up buying more each time. As mentioned, it's unfortunate everyone's doing it at the same time.

> I am very much against it since it’s a very illogical thing to do.

And that’s why the shelves are empty now and you have this problem. Panic is good. EARLY “panic” is the best. It leads to preparedness and less panic later when things are tough and it would cause more problems. When I was telling people five weeks ago to start preparing now by building up their supplies because this is the real deal I was laughed at by a few and told to “stop panicking”. A few others listened and they’re not panicked now. If everyone had listened and done the responsible thing of building up their supplies over those few weeks you wouldn’t see this problem.

Now is a better time than never to start preparing up in case you have to spend some time stuck inside.

The supply chains are still working fine for super markets so you’ll see the stock on shelves continue to build back up.

It's only "panic buying" for the people that aren't prepared.

There is panic buying and there is being prepared. We started buying more of the usual stuff we use about 4(?) weeks ago. We agreed, that the situation looked dangerous in january and considered triggers for different actions. So we now can decide to go shopping, still go to the market, but de don’t have to go to closed, crowded places. We were able to do this because we followed “real news” and have a background in science and we didn’t let our friends tell us “it’s not going to be bad!” without having a point. Is is a calm and rational process of risk assessment and mitigation.

If you see people stocking up on water in my area, _that’s_ panic buying. Scenarios for extended failure of the grid or water supply is implausible. The risk of running out of food for extended periods of time is low in my area. These people realize that they slacked and now they are still uninformed. The only thing that helps against panic buyng is education and information.

So long as there are no major supply disruptions (which we have little reason to believe there will be), you’ll see full shelves of fresh produce while the frozen and canned sections are bare. Eat fresh food and buy some cans when you see them. I doubt anyone will go hungry because of this.

Since this thing isn’t going away in the next 2 weeks, seems illogical to buy too much. The advice is to buy 2 weeks of supplies in case you’re infected and can’t leave the house. People would need 6+ months worth of supplies, and even then would get infected once they came out of hibernation. The smart thing is for people to start thinking longer term for now. As for the solution, try buy slightly more than you usually would, until the panic buying is over. Try smaller shops and chat to owners about when they will have stock?

At some point you may wish to not go to the grocery store for 2-3 weeks, either because you get sick, or because too much of the population may be contagious, which could be right now depending on where you are and whether you are high risk.

So it makes sense to have a few weeks of supplies even if normally you just get what you need as you need it on a much shorter timeframe.

If we want to kill this virus, or flatten the curve, we can do a lot by simply going out less. That means fewer trips to the store, which means bigger purchases each trip.

This is a good idea right now even if there are no confirmed cases in your area yet. Stock up, let grocery stores restock for people who waited, get ready, get the right habits now that let you stay out of public, and reduce the potential spread now.

Buying a gorillion bottles of hand sanitizer is of course not helping and selfish. But stocking up on things you will use and reducing time in public is a good idea.

It's not that irrational. First thing that comes to mind is you might want to minimize times you have to leave the house or prepare yourself for the eventuality of a quarantine.

Tell them you have no capacity problem. You are raising capacity. Rise the price by 30%+, the reason for that would be to cover up additional cost you have and make people think a bit before they panic buy. Rank up production to absolute maximum given the time allowed. That basically means factory running 24/7. Absolutely flood the market with excess stocks.

Some people have more toilet paper than they need for the rest of their life. Some of them has hundreds rolls of toilet paper. You want SPAM? Great, have cartons of SPAM, lets play the game of Supply and Demand and see if you have more buying power than my capacity. The simple lesson is, idiots and selfish people are everywhere. ( Nothing wrong with keeping two weeks worth of stock, but right now people are buying for the sake of buying )

So what hasn't this happen? The answer is Lead time. Not only in capacity but in decision making. As far as I am aware NO manufacturers to date have risen capacity when they were given prior notice. They only raise when the stock were running dry, and there were real incentives to do so. The decision of that has also taken days if not weeks till action, which is very long in consumer's view perspective.

Look at Hong Kong and Taiwan. Shops now have years wroth of stocks in hand cleaning and washing solutions. They only capacity constraint we have right now is Mask.

I haven't seen any panic buying yet. Pretty sure the shop downstairs even has toilet paper.

I got ~month of Mana powdered meals just in case though.

it's not illogical at all

If everyone else is likely to 'stock up' and therefore cause shortages, the only logical thing to do is also 'stock up', before there are shortages and you can't get things you need.

>I am very much against it since it's a very illogical thing to do.

OP I wish you to never experience a natural disaster. This is nothing compared to those.