Can't take this article seriously after that ridiculous comparison. There haven't been many more deaths, year-over-year, than any other year in America with a deadly flu season. Perhaps it is collapsing, as the disease care, food, and pharmaceutical industries continue to kill people before their time, but not like a Civil War.
“A U.N. panel probed the last phase of the war [and] has estimated that around 40,000 died while other independent reports estimated the number of civilians dead to exceed 100,000.”
If it's 40,000+, the author can only be referring to Covid-19 deaths.
I agree he should have dedicated more space there to convince the reader.
Or, at least put it into a per-capita number. Normal flu season in the US is 40K+. Heart disease is. Cancer is. Auto accidents. Opiate overdose deaths. The population of the us is 18 X that of Sri Lanka, so all sorts of unfortunate, but non-collapse-level processes, hit numbers like 40K.
Are they routine? If we built our infrastructure like Japan we wouldn’t have those car crashes. If we had healthcare for all we wouldn’t have those opioid deaths, or that heart disease. A lot of these would be a lot lower.
Deaths are only the most unfortunate part of it. Do you think life is going back to normal any time soon? I don't. What happens when this goes on for another couple years and people finally realize 2019 was probably the last "normal" year they'll experience for quite a while? Nothing good.
yes and that, to prove the authors point, is also collapse. The opioid epidemic, the car deaths, the obesity, the cancer, and the heart disease they're avoidable, they're the result of desolation at a societal scale, they're cultural illnesses, which the public responds to with indifference and numbness and another drive through at McDonalds.
Hundreds of thousands maybe more preventable deaths, every year, written off as "per capita" statistics, as if we're talking about a bad quarter at the office, and not human lifes. Every year maybe .5% more. That's what the author means when he's saying that you're already collapsing without even realising it.
The author says "collapse", but all they discuss is civil war. People dying from a pandemic that is effecting the entire globe is not remotely close the the circumstances of the Sri Lankan civil war. Deaths from violent acts are still very low.
It is affecting the entire globe, yes, but unevenly. Canada and the US are similar countries, but the US is at 624 deaths/million and Canada is at 251 deaths/million. The countries doing worse than the US are countries generally considered to be on the “not very wealthy” end of the scale (except the UK...). For being probably the most wealthy nation in the world, something is going terribly wrong.
>which the public responds to with indifference and numbness and another drive through at McDonalds.
Look through the responses in this thread. At least 2-3 other people described that their approach to the impending collapse is...to ignore it...and to also make sure they enjoy the nice September weather and to ruminate on their impending richness from cashing in on stock options. I sincerely hope these comments were /s or a joke. If not...well, then maybe this is why we are in this situation now - a good portion of the public is severely lobotomized to care about anything else but frozen pizza.
Sad that every comment explaining how numbers work is strongly downvoted.
Per-capita is the only way comparisons are made by the intellectually honest. And that's without even getting into the author's false equivalence of homicide (rebel fighting) and illness (Covid).
One day the bridge you used every day is closed for repair, and after a few years you realize it isn't going to get fixed.
Protection rackets appear, because the police can't get in to maintain order any more. Working around them takes a lot of thought and social connection, but life goes on.
At some point, the water stops coming through the taps. Getting water is a hassle, but life goes on. Phones stopped working a while back too, you realize. So did the street lights.
Potholes in the roads stay there and get bigger and bigger. But you can still use the road. Until one day you can't.
A few years later you look around and say, "hey, where is everybody?"
You are describing my childhood in the mid-90s Ukraine. Difference is, I never knew any different because I was 6 when the USSR collapsed, and by then even its version of "normal life" has been slowly decaying for a while. This decay accelerated in the 90s, but it was all normal to me. Hyperinflation, no hot water or heating for weeks, no electricity for 2-3 hours every evening (better not be stuck in an elevator at 6 pm when the blackout is scheduled to start!) Every piece of physical infrastructure slowly decays and doesn't get replaced.
It was so strange to go from that to Canada at 12 years old.
Seriously, the best advice I've received as a Palantir employee is "stop reading the news." Suddenly all this stuff about the election, the Supreme Court, targeted drone strikes, reproductive rights, police brutality happening to people other than me, rampant disease, and riots in the streets goes away. All that's left is me enjoying a sunny September afternoon in cozy, charming Palo Alto, counting down the hours until my company IPOs!
If the price on the private market is anything to go by, $6 times several tens of thousands of stock units, minus the astronomical cost to exercise, minus confusing Trump taxes.
Oops, I just said the T-word! Better stop thinking about the news again! Ha ha!
I mean, what's your reason for optimism? The private market price has been $1-$2 below the option strike price for a few years now. Most employees who received options as part of their comp for the last five years or so would have been underwater if they exercised them. The company even started compensating in RSUs, despite many years of opposition to them.
Well, I said "maybe." I have to watch it. I am not entirely optimistic, but am a bit of a gambler. The last direct listing I bought (Slack aka WORK) went badly.
i see how that came off a bit direct. i agree the 24 hour news cycle is way way too much. and one issue after another is totally depressing. but we can't ignore problems as general advice, that's not how things get solved.
Well, is it how things get fixed? The way we collectively attribute passive attention and consume information seems less and less up to us, the longer we're surrounded by the digital equivalent of slot machines. The media is more give and less take than ever; and the longer this stress goes on, the more emotionally charged the process of memetic exchange becomes.
Still, talking to people is as good as it ever was, if you're determined about it. While these days it does require significant care and patience to avoid the memes and the trigger phrases, it's still more than possible to gesture at the ideas behind the noise and get something fresh going - to get minds exchanging.
The one thing that is guaranteed is that if your M.O. is to ignore the issues that threaten to cause nationwide (or global) collapse then things will never get fixed. I am astounded to see several comments in this thread that are basically the approach the crew of sinking Titanic embraced - i.e. the ship is sinking and the people are running around like headless chickens so we better get those bands ready and playing festive music. Unbelievable!
I'm kidding, and I see what you mean - but I think reading more news solves big issues just as well as reading less news.
Changing the state of things now, or changing the way people approach things in the future - that's how the change thing works. Western people have had so much of the latter from the hyper-media environment that I find myself sympathising with the flouride folks - ideology may as well be in the water for how pervasive it is.
Our individual approaches toward media consumption have to be personal and pragmatic - they aren't statements of Kantian universal morals. Much like tee-totallers don't necessarily believe that everyone should give up drinking.
I know you're not quite saying this, but the idea that avoiding the news and having your head in the sand have anything to do with each other is a false equivalence. If anything, in today's world it's the other way around.
To be fair, if you think that consistently ignoring potentially civilization-ending issues is the road to mental "health" and focus...you may want to consult a doctor. Yes, THAT kind of a doctor. I am willing to bet you will get quite a lecture on "owning your issues".
I am pretty sure he/she was NOT joking or being /s, and is now downvoting my comments. To make matters worse, his comments shows up as the top comment for the thread currently, so apparently quite a few top HN contributors agree with this "approach".
I just got to 500 karma the other day, so, no, I've never downvoted any comments on this site, and I don't expect to. I think downvoting is spiteful and breeds suspicion of other contributors.
Also, I think commenting on voting activity is considered bad form here.
Whether I'm /s or not is, frankly, immaterial. My comment is true de facto. It doesn't really matter if I passively benefit from Palantir's activity while sitting pretty or while racked with moral agony. Similarly, I can't think of a life decision I've taken as a result of reading the news. Sure, I could donate my stock to charity or strive to work at the WHO, but I am almost certainly not going to.
>Also, I think commenting on voting activity is considered bad form here.
OK, sorry if it was a personal attack.
As far as the actual commenting on downvotes - well, if such downvotes are in support/defense of obvious signs of mental illness (e.g. the exact term in this case is "learned helplessness") then I will point that out even if it is against the HN culture.
Medical reality trumps culture any time, at least for me.
>Whether I'm /s or not is, frankly, immaterial. My comment is true de facto.
It actually matters, a lot. If a significant portion of the population acquires "learned helplessness" that will in and of itself lead to collapse. I have to ask - does this approach work for you? Namely, being disengaged from life and trying forcing yourself to enjoy it when it is quite obvious things are pretty bad right now? So bad in fact, that 1 in 4 young Americans are seriously contemplating suicide - an "unraveling" of the social fabric?
One would hope being racked with moral agony would be sufficient impetus to work towards change. Unless you believe you have no influence, how do you justify closing your eyes as a solution?
Actually "stop reading the news" is a good advice. Though it doesn't mean that you should stop participating in your community. There are better sources of information, I imagine, for almost any topic.
> “The man who never looks into a newspaper is better informed than he who reads them, inasmuch as he who knows nothing is nearer to truth than he whose mind is filled with falsehoods and errors.”
https://www.intellectualtakeout.org/blog/thomas-jefferson-ha...
Is this a joke?? So, the "best" advice you got from Palantir psychopaths is to engage in disinformationally-induced delusion?? What happens when that police brutality starts happening to you because you ignored the police's abuse of the, severely eroded already, civil rights of everybody else?? What is money good for if you wake up one day and realize everything that made your own life worthwhile is gone or severely compromised? Or do you think the money you will soon get will compensate for all of that?
Seriously, if you truly believe you got good advice there you, no offense whatsoever, might want to check with a mental health professional.
The US hasn't collapsed. If it collapsed, something could rise from the ashes. The US has developed major weaknesses like fault lines, to to speak, and a collapse event, like an earthquake, has an elevated probability of happening, a prediction horizon, but the event still has to happen.
The US has major weaknesses like high health care cost, aged infrastructure, no social safety nets to speak of, radically unequal wealth distribution, and erosion of democracy from lobbying and cash in politics, BUT it has not collapsed. However, all of these things raise the probability of collapse dramatically.
Of course, it has changed from its height, a lot of it for the worse, but a change isn't a collapse. A collapse is a collapse.
> In the last three months America has lost more people than Sri Lanka lost in 30 years of civil war. If this isn’t collapse, then the word has no meaning.
This is pretty weak reasoning, and the article's good points are unfortunately diluted by it.
* Raw deaths mean nothing: How many people has America lost -per capita- compared to Sri Lanka?
* The immediate, unexpected and shocking loss of a loved one from a bomb is vastly different from the typical Covid experience in the US. Outside of NYC, it is, typically, a nursing home illness.
* Direct homicide from a rebel military cannot be compared to succumbing to a novel and little-understood virus.
46 comments
[ 2.1 ms ] story [ 55.9 ms ] threadUmm...what?
I agree he should have dedicated more space there to convince the reader.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Hundreds of thousands maybe more preventable deaths, every year, written off as "per capita" statistics, as if we're talking about a bad quarter at the office, and not human lifes. Every year maybe .5% more. That's what the author means when he's saying that you're already collapsing without even realising it.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deat...
Look through the responses in this thread. At least 2-3 other people described that their approach to the impending collapse is...to ignore it...and to also make sure they enjoy the nice September weather and to ruminate on their impending richness from cashing in on stock options. I sincerely hope these comments were /s or a joke. If not...well, then maybe this is why we are in this situation now - a good portion of the public is severely lobotomized to care about anything else but frozen pizza.
Ok. For comparison, Sri Lanka has had 13 total COVID deaths (0.599/1M). The US has had ~206,000 deaths (627.67/1M).
Alternatively: assuming Sri Lanka's death rate was applied to the US population, we would have 197 total deaths.
Sad that every comment explaining how numbers work is strongly downvoted.
Per-capita is the only way comparisons are made by the intellectually honest. And that's without even getting into the author's false equivalence of homicide (rebel fighting) and illness (Covid).
One day the bridge you used every day is closed for repair, and after a few years you realize it isn't going to get fixed.
Protection rackets appear, because the police can't get in to maintain order any more. Working around them takes a lot of thought and social connection, but life goes on.
At some point, the water stops coming through the taps. Getting water is a hassle, but life goes on. Phones stopped working a while back too, you realize. So did the street lights.
Potholes in the roads stay there and get bigger and bigger. But you can still use the road. Until one day you can't.
A few years later you look around and say, "hey, where is everybody?"
It was so strange to go from that to Canada at 12 years old.
Oops, I just said the T-word! Better stop thinking about the news again! Ha ha!
Just yesterday, by means of example: https://www.forbes.com/sites/chantaldasilva/2020/09/28/palan...
Still, talking to people is as good as it ever was, if you're determined about it. While these days it does require significant care and patience to avoid the memes and the trigger phrases, it's still more than possible to gesture at the ideas behind the noise and get something fresh going - to get minds exchanging.
I'm kidding, and I see what you mean - but I think reading more news solves big issues just as well as reading less news.
Changing the state of things now, or changing the way people approach things in the future - that's how the change thing works. Western people have had so much of the latter from the hyper-media environment that I find myself sympathising with the flouride folks - ideology may as well be in the water for how pervasive it is.
Our individual approaches toward media consumption have to be personal and pragmatic - they aren't statements of Kantian universal morals. Much like tee-totallers don't necessarily believe that everyone should give up drinking.
I know you're not quite saying this, but the idea that avoiding the news and having your head in the sand have anything to do with each other is a false equivalence. If anything, in today's world it's the other way around.
Also, I think commenting on voting activity is considered bad form here.
Whether I'm /s or not is, frankly, immaterial. My comment is true de facto. It doesn't really matter if I passively benefit from Palantir's activity while sitting pretty or while racked with moral agony. Similarly, I can't think of a life decision I've taken as a result of reading the news. Sure, I could donate my stock to charity or strive to work at the WHO, but I am almost certainly not going to.
OK, sorry if it was a personal attack.
As far as the actual commenting on downvotes - well, if such downvotes are in support/defense of obvious signs of mental illness (e.g. the exact term in this case is "learned helplessness") then I will point that out even if it is against the HN culture.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Learned_helplessness
Medical reality trumps culture any time, at least for me.
>Whether I'm /s or not is, frankly, immaterial. My comment is true de facto.
It actually matters, a lot. If a significant portion of the population acquires "learned helplessness" that will in and of itself lead to collapse. I have to ask - does this approach work for you? Namely, being disengaged from life and trying forcing yourself to enjoy it when it is quite obvious things are pretty bad right now? So bad in fact, that 1 in 4 young Americans are seriously contemplating suicide - an "unraveling" of the social fabric?
https://theintercept.com/2020/08/28/the-social-fabric-of-the...
> “The man who never looks into a newspaper is better informed than he who reads them, inasmuch as he who knows nothing is nearer to truth than he whose mind is filled with falsehoods and errors.” https://www.intellectualtakeout.org/blog/thomas-jefferson-ha...
The US has major weaknesses like high health care cost, aged infrastructure, no social safety nets to speak of, radically unequal wealth distribution, and erosion of democracy from lobbying and cash in politics, BUT it has not collapsed. However, all of these things raise the probability of collapse dramatically.
Of course, it has changed from its height, a lot of it for the worse, but a change isn't a collapse. A collapse is a collapse.
This is pretty weak reasoning, and the article's good points are unfortunately diluted by it.
* Raw deaths mean nothing: How many people has America lost -per capita- compared to Sri Lanka?
* The immediate, unexpected and shocking loss of a loved one from a bomb is vastly different from the typical Covid experience in the US. Outside of NYC, it is, typically, a nursing home illness.
* Direct homicide from a rebel military cannot be compared to succumbing to a novel and little-understood virus.