29 deaths or ventilators in the control group of 83, 14 in the test group of 83. So, 43 total in the combined 166 subjects. That suggests that if the drug has no effect, there is about a 26% chance that a subject will die or need a ventilator (which is not surprising given that all the subjects were elderly).
If the drug has no effect and the death/ventilator probability is 0.26, then the probability that the control group of 83 would have >= 29 deaths/ventilators is 0.044. The probability that the test group would have <= 14 deaths/ventilators is 0.034.
That seems good enough to warrant further research.
This seems in line with other studies (like the ones using intravenous immunoglobulin, IVIG) that show moderately immunosuppressive drugs have only a slight benefit but a measurable benefit nonetheless.
During early days I was reasonably convinced drugs like IVIG would have a significant positive effect given the ARDS symptoms, but looks like that's not true :(
However I'm still fascinated about the possibilities of IVIG therapy - it's essentially a pooled antibody mixture from thousands of donors. IVIG has immunosuppressive effects more than would be expected from its antibodies, and IVIG made this year is bound to have anti covid antibodies as well so it will be interesting to see what effect new ivIG batches would have on patients!
5 comments
[ 2.5 ms ] story [ 24.9 ms ] threadIf the drug has no effect and the death/ventilator probability is 0.26, then the probability that the control group of 83 would have >= 29 deaths/ventilators is 0.044. The probability that the test group would have <= 14 deaths/ventilators is 0.034.
That seems good enough to warrant further research.
During early days I was reasonably convinced drugs like IVIG would have a significant positive effect given the ARDS symptoms, but looks like that's not true :(
However I'm still fascinated about the possibilities of IVIG therapy - it's essentially a pooled antibody mixture from thousands of donors. IVIG has immunosuppressive effects more than would be expected from its antibodies, and IVIG made this year is bound to have anti covid antibodies as well so it will be interesting to see what effect new ivIG batches would have on patients!