Ask HN: How to Prepare for National Instability?
There's likely no way to ask this without sounding dramatic. Governments rise and fall all the time, no one is immune. I do not personally know anyone that has lived through events similar to what's going on in the US right now so I am unprepared if the destabilizing events happening in the US right now keep escalating.
What can I do to prepare myself for potential further instability?
52 comments
[ 0.18 ms ] story [ 98.8 ms ] thread1. .22lr - Doesn't pack too much punch but it's good for hunting small game. It's very easy to stock >10,000 rounds of this ammunition.
2. 9mm - Most common handgun caliber in the world and has a high enough muzzle energy to be useful over longer distances with a rifle or carbine length barrel.
3. .308 - Most common hunting cartridge and packs a huge punch. It's effective range is 800m and can drop a moose.
4. 12 Gauge Shells - Any engagement under 100m is where 00 buckshot shines. Shotguns are absolutely gruesome close up and much more effective than many other options. Super cheap as well.
5. 5.56 / .223 - This is the cartridge used by most AR15 pattern rifles in the hands of both the military and law enforcement.
Note: Buying ammo is super difficult/expensive right now since the start of covid and the protests in June. It'd be best to stick to .22lr and 12 gauge if you don't already have a supply..
[0] https://static.wikia.nocookie.net/roadwarrior/images/0/07/Ch...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-mztxHgYQo
original news clip:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_LEfNFMAys
I went the study visa -> work visa -> permanent residency -> citizenship path myself - though, thankfully, I had the luxury of not having the pressure of being forced to leave behind a country with an unstable government (I went from Brazil to Canada). I've since also obtained a US green card (I had that process started before this whole "election steal" kerfuffle started).
The obvious downside of this approach is that it might become difficult to visit family (e.g. because international travel can be expensive, but in the Ethiopia case, literally due to fear of political backlash), though if the alternative comes down to literally having to stock up on guns and ammo, that might not be a bad trade-off...
Helpful site I’ve used to price out solar systems:
https://www.mobile-solarpower.com/
These systems are also useful in natural disaster scenarios.
1. Be prepared to leave if it's a true collapse.
2. Otherwise, prepare like you would for any other short-term disaster.
a. Water purification/filtration system
b. Some water to last a few weeks, beyond that use (a)
c. 3-6 months of food stuffs (canned and dried goods)
d. Some method of cooking said food stuffs for up to a month (beyond that you're dealing with a more complete collapse and there's little to do short of having your own small scale farm)
e. Some method of charging/running electronics without a grid (gas generator, solar panels, large batteries)
f. Some method of temporary heating (cooling is irrelevant, open the windows, but in the winter further north you need heat)
g. Stay healthy and fit, not crazy gym rat fit, but if you can't walk 5 miles at a leisurely pace in 2 hours, you're not close to healthy or fit.
h. Keep vehicles fueled (no less than half a tank) and a gas can topped off (use this periodically, fuel spoils)
i. Alternate mode of transportation (bicycle)
j. Basic tools for maintaining all or most of the equipment needed above
k. Have medications stored and ready to last at least a few weeks, longer for more critical conditions (my high cholesterol can be left untreated for extended periods, someone's thyroid or heart condition cannot)
3. If you want to prepare for a total collapse and don't want to leave the country acquire several acres of wooded land with a good sized garden plot and plant stuff. Have a fireplace/wood burning stove for winter heating, possibly for cooking. Look into other techniques of sustainable living. Probably also weapons. Know your neighbors and develop associations that can help post-collapse, because going solo is not going to be much fun.
[0]: https://lcamtuf.coredump.cx/prep/ [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25060418 [2]: https://survivalblog.com/
As Chomsky pointed out in Manufacturing Consent, modern-day propaganda isn't about lying or faking data, that's pre-War stuff. Post WWII we discovered that a much better way to manipulate public opinion is to focus on some data and not focusing on other data. Omitting that which doesn't match narrative, and headlining the stuff that matches narrative.
Believe it or not, it helps to stabilize you. As Taibbi points out, the news media has turned itself into market segments, where a news story is decided upon, "Will my market want to hear this" and NOT "People should know this." Therefore it's intended as outrage and anger by design. Once you know this, you can take a step back.
That's the psychological preparation.
Several people below wrote "community" and "social group." For those of us in cities and not small towns / farming communities, that translates to "make some friends" which isn't really that useful advice, I'm afraid.
Actually knowing and being known and trusted by your neighbors is one way to prevent this hypothetical Mad Max dystopia.
The idea of being stuck on the 10th floor without power and not having a Mad Max dystopia is actually quite feasible with the state of the US electric grid and preparations for extreme storms. Knowing your neighbors means you, if you're unable to go up/down the stairs for whatever reason, are not totally alone for days or weeks while infrastructure is restored. Based on going through hurricanes in the US South, it's usually been better to know other people than to believe you're truly self-reliant.
I'd go one step further and say that this is potentially even harmful advice, especially when coupled with the suggestions of treating instability/civil unrest like some romantic survivalist wet dream.
Having strong local social ties can cloud one's judgment of when to leave a truly dangerous situation. After bunkering for a few months, one might find themselves stranded with worthless currency, depleted stores, or even worse, actively hostile blockades, and physical inability to seek international refuge.
One does not need to theorize what a total collapse / humanitarian crisis would look like, there's plenty of precedent in the Middle East, east Africa, etc.
But it's hard to apply. You can wind up running from every social hiccup. (Did you flee the US for the BLM protests? But maybe there were days when it was wiser to not go downtown.) You have to correctly judge the level of the problem, and not run away from too many of the small ones, and not miss any of the big ones. It's a tough balance. If you can pull it off, though, it works far better than a bunker.
That's not really how the emigration math works out in practice. Generally speaking, if the net benefits of leaving are greater than staying, that's enough justification to leave, even if society is still largely functioning and even if you could realistically make a difference(tm).
The idea that one is morally obligated to be responsible for change in their communities is just one aspect of the larger discussion of ethics vs distance: e.g. is it sensible to expect a sub-saharan african to deal w/ the ramifications of civil war while "doing one's part" consists of merely advocating for the homeless in California?
What, then, of africans who go to CA for a better life, and what of those who aren't willing to leave CA to get their hands dirty on the more pressing humanitarian issues in Africa?
There are many wildly different opinions on this dilemma, but IMHO when push comes to shove, individuals will first and foremost look after themselves - Philanthropy comes second to that.
Sometimes this means abandoning one local cause for a better "deal" (in terms of what a foreign society can provide in return for the value brought in by their immigration and their labor); the bigness of the local problem often doesn't even factor into the equation, as by definition, social problems can't be easily solved by one individual's actions alone.
Now, what I am concerned about is the mid-to-long-term. Deepening economic inequality remains a serious problem for people on both the left and the right - I would argue it's the root cause of the unrest we're witnessing - and it shows no signs of slowing down. And I haven't seen the incoming administration provide any real plan to solve it. Also, the extremist circles won't suddenly disappear just because they stop being placated. They may end up voting en force in the midterms and/or the next presidential election. Trump has talked about starting a "news" network in the meantime which could keep the base stoked. He could then run again in 2024- or, possibly worse, a younger and smarter version of him who could actually capitalize on the seeds that he's planted.
But I think we now have at least a couple years of relative stability ahead. Maybe that time should be used to prepare. I know I'll be renewing my passport.
Short term. Unless you are in the epicenter. Stay in your house. Build a good community network.
Longer term. Passport, cash, friends overseas. Leave on time. Don't wait until it is too late. Think about Venezuela, Siria, Nazi Germany.
Is this not just a cowards way out? Staying around to help those that don't have the means to leave seems like the much nobler option.
"You know what the definition of a hero is? Someone who gets other people killed." ~ Zoe from Firefly
- Untie your savings and assets from US financial system. Crypto has many variations on how to do that.
edit - yeah no way for at least five years unless I get a huge break or raise. The current minimum for investment citizenship is $2M euros [0]. Damn, I really shouldn't have mucked up the relationship with my ex girlfriend from Maldova who was a citizen of Cyprus!
0 - https://www.goldenvisas.com/cyprus
Panama has territorial taxation means you pay zero in personal income tax if your income comes from outside of Panama. (If you're US citizen then IRS will charge your for that privilege regardless).
You can buy 2-3 bedroom oveanfront condo in Panama for around $300-$400k
Look for alternatives for communications, possibly P2P and ways to connect with local communities.
taxing the rich was literally the american way => UNTIL REAGAN
If things do kick off US is probably the last country I'd want to be. Way too many people armed to the teeth eager to try out their netflix walking dead acquired survival skills.