This article is based on one quote from Peter Thiel,
> “I don’t know that you should put all your money into bitcoin at $60,000 a bitcoin right now,” Thiel said. “But surely the fact that it is at $60,000 is an extremely hopeful sign. It’s the canary in the coal mine. It’s the most honest market we have in the country, and it’s telling us that this decrepit... regime is just about to blow up.”
I'm going to charitably interpret "it's the most honest market we have in the entire country" as tongue-in-cheek, and not a literal claim about the honesty of the Bitcoin market. Because sheeeesh.
He's pro crypto/bitcoin, but he also called it a Chinese weapon undermining America:
“I do wonder whether at this point, Bitcoin should also be thought [of] in part as a Chinese financial weapon against the U.S.,” Thiel said during an appearance at a virtual event held for members of the Richard Nixon Foundation. “It threatens fiat money, but it especially threatens the U.S. dollar.” He added: “[If] China’s long Bitcoin, perhaps from a geopolitical perspective, the U.S. should be asking some tougher questions about exactly how that works.”
because China just "ganked" at least four years of BTC block rewards, AFTER developing the billion dollar BTC mining "pick and shovel" industry, now mostly being sold to who?
By most estimations China is sitting on / "HODLing" a fortune in BTC.
Weaponized global finance. The petrodollar war rages on in crypto land
Which Silicon Valley is still there? The one that revolutionized computing and brought useful tools to the common man? Or the one that milks common man with addictive software interfaces and sells information about their users to the highest bidder?
I don't know anything about political systems imploding, but it's possible the era of USD global domination is closing or at least getting significantly weaker, along with its weaponization of the banking system.
While I agree the US political system is about to implode, I do not agree with Thiel why it is about to implode.
Of course, he is not a trustworthy interlocutor. He has a vested interest in preventing any additional taxation, anit-war, or anti-climate change legislation being passed.
When I see things like this, I first ask myself "can this apparent inconsistency be explained by an underlying desire for increased power?" Helps explain a lot of hypocracy.
He answers this exact question in one of his interivews. Paraphrasing - he strongly believes in civil liberties and privacy, his view of Palantir is to prevent fraud (based on early Paypal fraud system), provide data analytics for human decision making in the intelligence agencies and help government monitor their own performance.
If you think about this, Google and Apple has far more granular data about citizens than Palantir. Yet, we don't think twice about it.
It does seem inevitable that Tether implodes. Whoever is holding those coins at the time will lose once crypto players decide to stop playing with tethers. Whether they lose all or partially is unclear. The loss may the total value locked or recently purchased in tether. Perhaps it is the same as the market cap due to the fast turnover in the coin.
My conjecture is that Tether's collapse will result in temporary losses to crypto values overall. It will likely lead to regulation. But with regulation the legitimacy of DeFi in particular will be more solidified and raise the markets. This is my guess for the next 5 years or so.
Yes this is probably the biggest risk to current crypto market values. However I wonder if the other stablecoins will be able to quickly replace it with minimal market dislocations if/when Tether implodes.
That's sort of the wrong definition of "inflate," but if you mean price appreciation because of the fixed supply and other design factors, your point makes more sense.
> But surely the fact that it is at $60,000 is an extremely hopeful sign. It's the canary in the coal mine. It's the most honest market we have in the country, and it's telling us that this decrepit… regime is just about to blow up
That's a hopeful sign? Political regime collapse tends to be a very bloody time. That might be "hopeful" if you're clueless about that aspect, or just shrug it off as "the price to get to a better state". Or maybe you intend to ride it out on your own private island or whatever, and expect the blood to all be other peoples' blood. But for most of us, there is reason to consider it with a certain amount of caution, even fear.
One thing that's certainly interesting is that Thiel did not seem to hold these views during the last administration when Bitcoin appreciated by a factor of about 10x-30x.
The honeybadger doesn't care about politics, and Peter Thiel knows it. Peter's a great tech and macro investor, but overthinks politics a bit too much.
Peter Thiel is demonstrably a pretty machiavellian character. Since just about everything he does is either financially or politically motivated, I don't take too much from his comments other than he anticipates to gain from them.
I disagree with Peter in a lot of ways but it is fascinating to hear an intellectual that completely goes against the grain. There is something valuable for everyone in what he has to say. We need more divergent people like Peter. The media has portrayed him as Satan unfortunately.
You’re doing a disservice to yourself for not listening to him. Highly recommend Spotify playlist of all of his interviews, just search “Peter Thiel”.
I think there’s a camp of Bitcoin investors who are essentially USD skeptics, thinking that political brinksmanship will soon result in a catastrophic event that damages the US Treasury’s credibility, like say defaulting on our debt. In this sense Bitcoin is a safe haven from political instability, so he may be saying that a rise indicates more people are concerned by political instability.
News alert: expert shyster (Thiel) gives talk to junior shysters (FedSoc) about shyst (BTC being the basis for a financial system, rather than one of many assets).
Let's say someone agrees that bitcoin price is a reliable signal, what is the call to action? Imo, the price represents a kind of anti-demand for USD and it is a general fiat hedge, like a volatility index for capital flight by working people.
"Pessimists sound smart, optimists make money." is a quip that has resonated with me a great deal lately, so while I have opinions about what implosion looks like, what is the strategy to benefit from it? Framed in that context, yes, I'd agree with Thiel if he were saying we're watching the "all at once" phase of a slow decline that started a decade or two ago. However, what could one be optimistic about in that situation?
I think Bitcoin specifically, crypto in general and some other recent events show a general lack of trust in the financial system. That is related to a lack of trust in the political system but I think there are far bigger examples of that as of late than Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is north of $60k due to buy volume and the newly released Crypto ETF receiving lots of positive news. Most asset prices are at all time highs, bitcoin being seen as an asset or store of value. currentmarketvaluation.com
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[ 1.8 ms ] story [ 126 ms ] thread> “I don’t know that you should put all your money into bitcoin at $60,000 a bitcoin right now,” Thiel said. “But surely the fact that it is at $60,000 is an extremely hopeful sign. It’s the canary in the coal mine. It’s the most honest market we have in the country, and it’s telling us that this decrepit... regime is just about to blow up.”
which they copy-pasted from https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/8c2365
“I do wonder whether at this point, Bitcoin should also be thought [of] in part as a Chinese financial weapon against the U.S.,” Thiel said during an appearance at a virtual event held for members of the Richard Nixon Foundation. “It threatens fiat money, but it especially threatens the U.S. dollar.” He added: “[If] China’s long Bitcoin, perhaps from a geopolitical perspective, the U.S. should be asking some tougher questions about exactly how that works.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-07/peter-thi...
By most estimations China is sitting on / "HODLing" a fortune in BTC.
Weaponized global finance. The petrodollar war rages on in crypto land
Of course, he is not a trustworthy interlocutor. He has a vested interest in preventing any additional taxation, anit-war, or anti-climate change legislation being passed.
If you think about this, Google and Apple has far more granular data about citizens than Palantir. Yet, we don't think twice about it.
My conjecture is that Tether's collapse will result in temporary losses to crypto values overall. It will likely lead to regulation. But with regulation the legitimacy of DeFi in particular will be more solidified and raise the markets. This is my guess for the next 5 years or so.
BTC speculation has nothing to do with anything, and it definitely doesn't behave like Gold.
Edit: Clarified the wording.
If it were used as a currency, we might start using this kind of language, but it's not a currency.
It's a number that people people make speculative guesses on how much other people are willing to pay for it. That's it.
It has no intrinsic drivers, just pure speculation on the whims of other major holders and how the crowds might react.
True, it is speculation.
I also suspect Thiel’s got money on you believing that the political system is about to implode.
That's a hopeful sign? Political regime collapse tends to be a very bloody time. That might be "hopeful" if you're clueless about that aspect, or just shrug it off as "the price to get to a better state". Or maybe you intend to ride it out on your own private island or whatever, and expect the blood to all be other peoples' blood. But for most of us, there is reason to consider it with a certain amount of caution, even fear.
You’re doing a disservice to yourself for not listening to him. Highly recommend Spotify playlist of all of his interviews, just search “Peter Thiel”.
In other news, dog bites man, details on TikTok.
Nothing to see here, move along.
"Pessimists sound smart, optimists make money." is a quip that has resonated with me a great deal lately, so while I have opinions about what implosion looks like, what is the strategy to benefit from it? Framed in that context, yes, I'd agree with Thiel if he were saying we're watching the "all at once" phase of a slow decline that started a decade or two ago. However, what could one be optimistic about in that situation?