I doubt that the official number of 5m is accurate anyway, it's probably much less.
My grandma passed away last year, cause of death was registered as covid even though we all knew that it wasn't.
I've heard about many similar to stories similar to mine
I've also heard that hospitals can make money out of it.
Indeed not uncommon and there's also people who died of totally different causes (car crashes) who were registered as dying of COVID just because they tested positive. we dont have any good data.
2. Untrained nurses were operating the ventilators, resulting in deaths.
3. Massive unemployment
4. Very unheathly eating/drinking/no exercise habits of lockdown. Weight gain stress.
I could add more, but #1 is probably the biggest contributor. Surgeries were canceled, preventative care and diagnostic tests were drastically reduced during the "fearful" times. It is really sad.
2 would be caused by covid. "People get covid induced pneumonia, but due to the overwhelming number of people in need of acute care, more than might normally do so die" is still "people dying due to covid"
1, 3 and 4 still happened in other parts of the world with even stricter lockdowns (Oceania, southeast Asia), but they didn't face the same excess mortality, so that doesn't fully explain things.
I hear what you are saying, and maybe I have to look into what happened in other countries to know more.
But right now my intiution tells me if there is double digit unemployment, people stop going to the hospital, and they believe it is 'the end of the world', then more deaths will be the result. How many more deaths? Thats the question.
> What about the excess deaths compared to other times?
So a single factor (COVID) is responsible for the excess death? That's simplification at best, because in reality nothing is ever a single-variable problem.
Hmm, try looking at <excess deaths> as a computation that takes the delta with a computation based on a control period.
(unpacking: It actually measures the delta with a predicted trend. The trend calculation projects what current deaths should be, based on the situation in the past - which you can see as the control period. It's not perfect, but this should, reasonably, exclude most other factors fairly well. )
This article is using excess deaths. What other explanation do you have for the large increase in deaths?
Note that Oceania had some of the longest and strictest lockdowns in the world, but very low actual covid deaths. But Oceania had very low excess deaths, so lockdowns don't seem to be a good explanation.
> What other explanation do you have for the large increase in deaths?
Lack of imagination much? See other commenter below explaining the various reasons why you might see excess death. Not everything is linked to COVID (at least not directly).
Except that commenters reasons don't actually explain the observed effects. If lockdown policies were the cause, we'd have seen increased excess mortality in Australia, New Zealand and parts of Southeast Asia correlated with lockdowns. As far as I know, we didn't.
You'd also expect some level of lag, a decrease in preventative care would lead to things like missed cancer, not immediate excess mortality, which is the observed effect.
Im going to guess you didnt read the link I posted where CDC said emergency room visits dropped by 42% , or that they poll was done where 1-4 people said they wouldnt visit hospital if they were having a heart attack or stroke because they were afraid of covid. I realize you are invested in your position, but you asked for information and I provided it and you should look into it. Or just downvote me, but at least im being earnest.
Im going to guess you didnt read the link I posted where CDC said emergency room visits dropped by 42%
Healthcare in the US is broken. Many people go to the ER for non-emergency reasons because ERs can't turn people away when they lack insurance. People also go to the ER for non-technically-emergency reasons because it's often the only way to get medical assistance outside of office hours (frequently 8am - 5pm, Monday through Friday.)
So ER visits dropped 42%... what does that mean exactly? For example: people having heart attacks deciding to die at home vs. people who hurt themselves over a weekend deciding to skip the ER and wait to go to their doctor's office on Monday?
they poll was done where 1-4 people said they wouldnt visit hospital if they were having a heart attack or stroke because they were afraid of covid
What has the mortality rate from heart attacks and stroke been since early 2020?
Honestly since all my posts have been downvoted thats not really an incentive for me to continue further even though I could. I provided links to latimes, CDC data, and I get downvoted. Maybe Im wrong or maybe this topic is to contentious, but honestly is it even worth talking about anymore? Things are how they are any neither you or I will change it.
It's never pleasant to have one's comments downvoted.
But I think the issue is that the CDC data about ER visits and the LA Times story just don't say anything about how non-COVID deaths, but deaths 'due to' the COVID pandemic, have affected the excess mortality.
Nobody (at least nobody worth listening to) is saying that zero people died because they didn't go to the ER, because they missed preventative care appointments, or because of misdiagnosis. But that's simply not the cause of the majority of the excess deaths.
What numbers would you want to see on that? I suspect they're available...
From another of your comments on this post: This covid stuff, I see a lot of people dying and a lot of money changing hands and a lot of... unclear things happening very fast all around us.
By money changing hands do you mean the claim that hospitals exaggerate their COVID numbers because they get more money somehow? This is disproven, and many fact-checks have been published about it. Here's one from a FOX affiliate: https://fox11online.com/news/fox-11-investigates/fact-check-...
things happening very fast all around us.
That's very true. Being in the middle of a brand-new pandemic is disorienting. As time goes on, we'll have more hard data to guide policy decisions. Let's hope that politicians use it.
"The number of visits for conditions including nonspecific chest pain and acute myocardial infarction decreased, suggesting that some persons could be delaying care for conditions that might result in additional mortality if left untreated. "
And I will say this: personally I've done quite well financially during the pandemic, through tech wages and investments. And part of me thinks, well the shift we are doing as a society is necessary as we step into the future. But part of me also feels bad for the people who have to lose and die to make this shift happen. We have so much momentum towards where our society feels it is destined to be, and covid just feels like an excuse to be another step in that direction. Maybe I should just shut my mouth and let it happen, but Im an idiot so there you have it.
Thanks for the info on what you meant by money changing hands.
"The number of visits for conditions including nonspecific chest pain and acute myocardial infarction decreased, suggesting that some persons could be delaying care for conditions that might result in additional mortality if left untreated."
Yep. Nobody is claiming that number is zero.
The CDC report also notes "NSSP found that emergency department (ED) visits declined 42% during the early COVID-19 pandemic... with the steepest decreases in persons aged ≤14 years, females, and the Northeast."
People aged ≤14 years just don't account for a large percentage of ER deaths.
Or better yet, just glance their infographic:
That infographic is confusing. While it says "A decline in visits for serious conditions might result in complications or death" that is not a statement about the 42% number. ER visits declined that much overall. (My guess based on the "might result in complications or death" phrasing is that it's supposed to be a warning for the general public to not skip the ER for serious conditions.)
"Many people with treatable medical conditions have died because they did not receive appropriate health care. Conversely, other people have survived who, were it not for the behavioural changes induced by covid-19, would have died from causes like influenza, air pollution or car accidents."
What statistics would give you more confidence in excess death counts?
The same thing happened with roughly the same proportion in the UK, so no it's not to do with the US health system. It's to do with telling people there's a hospital crisis and they have a social duty to not go.
Yes you are probably right. It's because of covid or the perception and response to covid.
I'll be very brutally honest here though. This covid stuff, I see a lot of people dying and a lot of money changing hands and a lot of... unclear things happening very fast all around us. It rather bothers me. Whenever this USA nation has a crisis the opportunists seem to rise out of nowhere to exploit it, and the common man suffers.
Haha the older I get, the more I appreciate old people. Especially the snarky ones. We are all going to be old someday, I hope I'm the best type of old like your mother. I really do.
Specifically, it's an effect of mistaken predictions about COVID. COVID is still with us and people have stopped avoiding the hospitals now, unfortunately, the backlog isn't clearable except by people dying whilst waiting for treatment (in the UK at least).
> Specifically, it's an effect of mistaken predictions about COVID
No, its not. It’s an effect of the perception that hospitals provide an elevated risk of catching COVID plus some desire to avoid hospitalization given the COVID control measures in hospitals. (There's also some effect that isn't avoidance but some services actually cancelled at hospitals due to actual or anticipated COVID caseload or as part of control measures.)
> COVID is still with us
True.
> and people have stopped avoiding the hospitals
No, they haven't, though that's dropped from the peak and widespread use and awareness of telehealth services (which stabilized at a nearly 40× the pre-pandemic utilization rate) may mean that less of that avoidance of hospitals and other medical facilities is avoidance of medical services entirely.
Again, a comparison to Oceania would be helpful here. ER presentations declined by a similar proportion there, but did not see the excess deaths.
Oceania largely managed to contain the virus until broad vaccination coverage was achieved in vulnerable populations. That would seem to be the most straightforward explanation for the lack of excess deaths in Oceania.
Ok but when you are comparing USA with Oceania, arent there quite a lot of factors to consider? For example, it is established that bmi plays a factor in covid deaths: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7010e4.htm
Is the BMI of USA the same as all of Oceania? What other factors are in play as well? Probably a lot I would imagine.
30 comments
[ 4.9 ms ] story [ 88.6 ms ] threadMy grandma passed away last year, cause of death was registered as covid even though we all knew that it wasn't. I've heard about many similar to stories similar to mine I've also heard that hospitals can make money out of it.
2. Untrained nurses were operating the ventilators, resulting in deaths.
3. Massive unemployment
4. Very unheathly eating/drinking/no exercise habits of lockdown. Weight gain stress.
I could add more, but #1 is probably the biggest contributor. Surgeries were canceled, preventative care and diagnostic tests were drastically reduced during the "fearful" times. It is really sad.
1, 3 and 4 still happened in other parts of the world with even stricter lockdowns (Oceania, southeast Asia), but they didn't face the same excess mortality, so that doesn't fully explain things.
But right now my intiution tells me if there is double digit unemployment, people stop going to the hospital, and they believe it is 'the end of the world', then more deaths will be the result. How many more deaths? Thats the question.
So a single factor (COVID) is responsible for the excess death? That's simplification at best, because in reality nothing is ever a single-variable problem.
(unpacking: It actually measures the delta with a predicted trend. The trend calculation projects what current deaths should be, based on the situation in the past - which you can see as the control period. It's not perfect, but this should, reasonably, exclude most other factors fairly well. )
Note that Oceania had some of the longest and strictest lockdowns in the world, but very low actual covid deaths. But Oceania had very low excess deaths, so lockdowns don't seem to be a good explanation.
Lack of imagination much? See other commenter below explaining the various reasons why you might see excess death. Not everything is linked to COVID (at least not directly).
You'd also expect some level of lag, a decrease in preventative care would lead to things like missed cancer, not immediate excess mortality, which is the observed effect.
Healthcare in the US is broken. Many people go to the ER for non-emergency reasons because ERs can't turn people away when they lack insurance. People also go to the ER for non-technically-emergency reasons because it's often the only way to get medical assistance outside of office hours (frequently 8am - 5pm, Monday through Friday.)
So ER visits dropped 42%... what does that mean exactly? For example: people having heart attacks deciding to die at home vs. people who hurt themselves over a weekend deciding to skip the ER and wait to go to their doctor's office on Monday?
they poll was done where 1-4 people said they wouldnt visit hospital if they were having a heart attack or stroke because they were afraid of covid
What has the mortality rate from heart attacks and stroke been since early 2020?
But I think the issue is that the CDC data about ER visits and the LA Times story just don't say anything about how non-COVID deaths, but deaths 'due to' the COVID pandemic, have affected the excess mortality.
Nobody (at least nobody worth listening to) is saying that zero people died because they didn't go to the ER, because they missed preventative care appointments, or because of misdiagnosis. But that's simply not the cause of the majority of the excess deaths.
What numbers would you want to see on that? I suspect they're available...
From another of your comments on this post: This covid stuff, I see a lot of people dying and a lot of money changing hands and a lot of... unclear things happening very fast all around us.
By money changing hands do you mean the claim that hospitals exaggerate their COVID numbers because they get more money somehow? This is disproven, and many fact-checks have been published about it. Here's one from a FOX affiliate: https://fox11online.com/news/fox-11-investigates/fact-check-...
things happening very fast all around us.
That's very true. Being in the middle of a brand-new pandemic is disorienting. As time goes on, we'll have more hard data to guide policy decisions. Let's hope that politicians use it.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6923e1.htm
"The number of visits for conditions including nonspecific chest pain and acute myocardial infarction decreased, suggesting that some persons could be delaying care for conditions that might result in additional mortality if left untreated. "
Or better yet, just glance their infographic:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/social-media/mm6923e1...
If you read between the lines, you know they have a serious problem here with people avoiding care.
Billionaires net worth increased 70% [trillions] during pandemic: https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/28/politics/billionaire-wealth-t...
And I will say this: personally I've done quite well financially during the pandemic, through tech wages and investments. And part of me thinks, well the shift we are doing as a society is necessary as we step into the future. But part of me also feels bad for the people who have to lose and die to make this shift happen. We have so much momentum towards where our society feels it is destined to be, and covid just feels like an excuse to be another step in that direction. Maybe I should just shut my mouth and let it happen, but Im an idiot so there you have it.
"The number of visits for conditions including nonspecific chest pain and acute myocardial infarction decreased, suggesting that some persons could be delaying care for conditions that might result in additional mortality if left untreated."
Yep. Nobody is claiming that number is zero.
The CDC report also notes "NSSP found that emergency department (ED) visits declined 42% during the early COVID-19 pandemic... with the steepest decreases in persons aged ≤14 years, females, and the Northeast."
People aged ≤14 years just don't account for a large percentage of ER deaths.
Or better yet, just glance their infographic:
That infographic is confusing. While it says "A decline in visits for serious conditions might result in complications or death" that is not a statement about the 42% number. ER visits declined that much overall. (My guess based on the "might result in complications or death" phrasing is that it's supposed to be a warning for the general public to not skip the ER for serious conditions.)
Re. myocardial infarction, https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778234 reports an increase of approximately 30,000 deaths in the US in 2020 due to heart disease.
Skimming https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/05/13/how-we-e... I don't see if they take into account known numbers such as that one. It does note
"Many people with treatable medical conditions have died because they did not receive appropriate health care. Conversely, other people have survived who, were it not for the behavioural changes induced by covid-19, would have died from causes like influenza, air pollution or car accidents."
What statistics would give you more confidence in excess death counts?
People avoiding hospitals because of COVID is an effect of COVID.
I'll be very brutally honest here though. This covid stuff, I see a lot of people dying and a lot of money changing hands and a lot of... unclear things happening very fast all around us. It rather bothers me. Whenever this USA nation has a crisis the opportunists seem to rise out of nowhere to exploit it, and the common man suffers.
I laughed with her then. I don't anymore.
No, its not. It’s an effect of the perception that hospitals provide an elevated risk of catching COVID plus some desire to avoid hospitalization given the COVID control measures in hospitals. (There's also some effect that isn't avoidance but some services actually cancelled at hospitals due to actual or anticipated COVID caseload or as part of control measures.)
> COVID is still with us
True.
> and people have stopped avoiding the hospitals
No, they haven't, though that's dropped from the peak and widespread use and awareness of telehealth services (which stabilized at a nearly 40× the pre-pandemic utilization rate) may mean that less of that avoidance of hospitals and other medical facilities is avoidance of medical services entirely.
Oceania largely managed to contain the virus until broad vaccination coverage was achieved in vulnerable populations. That would seem to be the most straightforward explanation for the lack of excess deaths in Oceania.
Is the BMI of USA the same as all of Oceania? What other factors are in play as well? Probably a lot I would imagine.