Ask HN: How is the “metaverse” concept different from the Second Life boom?

257 points by 0des ↗ HN
Does anybody remember the Second Life boom when companies were trying to snap up linden-land and set up shop online? That failed, and I can't help but feel like the 'metaverse' concept being marketed to us is that, but with VR helmets and advertising strapped on.

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Second Life required you were at least 18 at one point. It was meant more for social gatherings and meeting spots and I think (though I'm not 100%) that they shifted toward "virtual" office spaces with a focus on community building and digital trade using real-life currency.

The metaverse, as I understand it, is just Facebook Games but in VR, for kids and bored adults.

I think the outcome will be the same, though. I can't imagine how anyone at Facebook thought this idea would work.

I'm shocked people are taking "Meta" at face value.

To me it's a way to signal to outsiders that Facebook is still cool and hip. That's it.

Now when recruiting they can play the Meta-not-Facebook angle.

Now if they can pad earnings calls with the amazing success the metaverse is seeing (so what if it's losing us money, that's the future!)

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It's like an inverse Alphabet. Where Alphabet silently serves as an umbrella for moonshots, Meta is a moonshot that's an umbrella for boring old Facebook

> Meta-not-Facebook

I am going to start using this term to satisfy people that argue its not called Facebook anymore.

Meta-pk-Facebook = Meta-previously-known-Facebook

would be better, because in case of the Meta-not-Facebook, 'not' might be strong enough to remember that way.

They are spending insanely on r and d on this compared to companies their size. 10b a year.
Their market cap has risen over 70B since the announcement, so I think they'll be ok

(Yes I know market cap != war chest, but expenditure on Meta is nothing compared to the "soft power" it provides FB)

honestly I am not sure how actually are they spending that kind of money.

I dont see a ton of fb recruiters hiring for VR skills, I dont see a lot of training/certifications /open source libraries /platform Sdks for other devs etc that feels like $10B a year kind of budgets are behind VR/AR.

That's a lot of money, Hard space companies like SpaceX or Blue Origin which have big hardware expenses spend only 1-2 billon/year and have thousands or tens of thousands of staff working and their progress is visible .

Does FB have 20,000 + engineers working on metaverse? even if so, doing what exactly ?

you're looking in the wrong place. i have reality labs recruiters calling me frequently and my linked in feed is a never ending cascade of sponsored posts about how working ar FB^H^HMMVRS is so much fun.
> FB^H^HMMVRS No sure what this meant

I am sure FB is recruiting, my point is not that reality labs is fake , I am sure it is real and they do recruit, it just that I don't see recruitment that would signal that large a number of investment.

I wasn't saying from a personal engineer anecdotal experience, but as some one working in recruitment tech, I keep an eye on industry patterns.

I could be wrong in my impression but I think they are just doing bit of creative accounting on existing expenses to show high spends on their flagship project.

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> The metaverse, as I understand it, is just Facebook Games but in VR, for kids and bored adults.

I don't think that's true. Search for "Horizon Workrooms" to see an (IMHO) significant product they have in the collaboration tool space.

That’s the most dystopian thing about this - the best, most aspiration use for VR they can show case is… meetings, but in VR.
What's wrong with that? That meetings are necessary in modern working life is a fact. So might as well have products and services that make them better on some axes. And it doesn't necessarily have to be just office meetings either. University lectures or tutorials this way also sound pretty cool to me. You could have a student from Taiwan, the US, Germany and Sweden sit in the same classroom and interact, without having to travel thousands of miles. I think that's very cool.
The point is not that meetings are not a good application, there really doesn't seem to be a lot of useful productivity stuff beyond that.[1]

Also in person meetings are useful over a video call largely because there is lot of information from body language you can pick up being up close to someone. There is a lot of information on how someone breathes, moves or posture etc.

AFAIK there is no good VR solution that is able to solve that today. Even if there was enough cameras on you to pick up that level of detail , the bandwidth on transist across continents today or in next 15 years is not going to be available even for it make sense for businesses let alone regular users. VR as a replacement for zoom sure is interesting gimmick , but as replacement or equivalent to sitting next to each other we are atleast 2 decades away .

[1] real estate is only successful business application I have seen in the VR space

I keep reading about this multi billion army contract , I am sure the money is real, but whether it is actually effective remains to be proven.

> Also in person meetings are useful over a video call largely because there is lot of information from body language you can pick up being up close to someone. There is a lot of information on how someone breathes, moves or posture etc.

I keep hearing this but don't feel I've lost anything working fully remote for the last five years. Are there experiments proving that a call with high quality audio is so much worse in business than a physical meeting?

Perhaps I'm just not perceptive enough to pick up on all the nonverbal cues. Though even if so I think calls are more equitable and accessible.

The last in-person meeting I attended, I drew on a whiteboard, made exaggerated gestures with my hands to point to different parts of it, and established spatial metaphors by establishing one side of the room as the backend, and the other as the front-end.

When people asked me questions, they walked up to the whiteboard and pointed directly, and then scribbled on it to clarify. I felt a lot more connected when I was able to make direct eye contact and get backchannelling. Perhaps it was my perception, but I felt like it was a lot better for communication as a whole.

I'm sure you can replicate all of this stuff in Zoom or VR, but it sure is a lot more clunky and annoying.

It depends on the kind of work you do. Some roles doesn't require that much collaboration or discussions.

A senior developer/IC in a well run shop maybe requires to attend 1-2 meetings a day and can function efficiently for years without distractions of a work place.

However roles that require a lot of whiteboarding and brain storming simply don't work well remote on zoom. it is hard to share a meaningful simple white board, it is impossible to walk around and ideate .

Teaching a class of 20 in remote is hard. Teaching for me depends on my ability to see their eyes clearly to know see the light of understanding so to speak then changing my examples speed or approach to make sure most get the points. Many business meetings are also not that different. It is impossible for me to look at 10 boxes on a screen to do the same.

I have heard from sales professionals that without being near the customer it hard to judge what their interest levels are, what kind of discounts / packages to offer etc . Video chat simply doesn't give you the same inputs.

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When you share a public space with few others , by design the reduction in privacy also helps everyone learn and collaborate better, some just turn around for help and gets it in a minute, I look over a shoulder and see they are stuck and could use help .

Small ,informal and unstructured discussions is where lot of nuance is learnt. Slack doesn't replace this very well at all.

"...roles that require a lot of whiteboarding and brain storming simply don't work well remote on zoom"

Agreed. And the point about eye contact really extends to any remote exchange... though I believe it is particularly important in education (where we've supplanted a human-rich interaction with staring at files or tiny heads).

If I may be so bold, our team is working on a solution to both of these issues. By digitizing contents from physical/analog surfaces in real time, we're trying to encourage folks to keep the whiteboard (or blackboard or paper...). If you have the energy, would love some feedback: https://sharetheboard.com

Not sure what axis Horizons makes meetings better on though.
> That meetings are necessary in modern working life is a fact.

No, the fact is that they happen. Whether or not they are necessary is a matter of opinion.

Isn't this just the natural progression of technology? I don't understand how having a more effective way of communicating with remote coworkers is "dystopian".
fwiw, SL launched the "teen grid" in 2005. later they merged it in with the main grid and disallowed youngsters from entering "adult themed regions"
You used the lowercase metaverse. THAT metaverse is a broad concept definitely not specific to Facebook. It encompasses things like Second Life and Meta's attempts, but the more pure connotation is something like the world wide web but with virtual spaces and avatars. Not controlled by any particular company.

The strange thing to me is that web browsers do support VR, and they used to even support navigating seamlessly between VR pages without exiting VR mode. But for some reason the seamless navigation was removed. And browsers are almost never even mentioned in these discussions of the Metaverse, even by people who seem concerned that some proprietary platform will take over.

This type of utter failure to understand or recognize the significance of various technologies even by groups like HN, makes me seriously support the idea of AI taking over control of the planet.

We have better technology (and thus immersion) now. It's a simple answer, but I think largely sufficient enough to explain why things may be quite different now.

The immersiveness that can be attained via modern high-end VR systems is simply not comparable to what we had a decade ago; it enables many more use cases and paradigms that wouldn't have felt usable, interesting, fun, or sometimes even particularly social in the past. To me at least, VR/AR seem like a pretty large medium shift, and I really expect them to stick around and become a large part of society.

It’s a way for Zuckerberg to learn firsthand just how much luck was involved in his success.
It's not like he invented the concept. They are trying to take over the term though
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Its a powerplay. If he succeeds, he can solidify himself as a product genius, but in reality its just his money at play. Its easier to use money to take over something than to use money to invent something new.
How is that different from FB 1.0 or apple under jobs for that matter ?.

Money is always needed, but money alone is not enough. Every funded startup has some money, many have raised a ton of money only to fail badly.

Also it is not his money i.e. he is not selling/leveraging his FB stock to invest personally. FB is investing shareholder money of which he only owns 16.7% .

> FB 1.0 or apple under jobs

Two very different companies and scenarios. Jobs as famous for cutting down >10 products product offerings down to 1-2 to refocus the company. His skillset was very much product strategy. He used money mostly for marketing and design. Two things Apple is very much well known for.

Facebook is known for copy, acquire, kill. They offer tons of money to try to acquire competitors. If they say no, then they hire tons to engineers to clone your product, then they kill your product.

Money is required by both, but arguably how both companies spend money is vastly different. Facebook very much uses money as a powerplay than Apple under Jobs.

> Money is always needed, but money alone is not enough. Every funded startup has some money, many have raised a ton of money only to fail badly.

This is such a generalized statement. It's not even worth commenting. Water is wet and the sky is blue.

> FB is investing shareholder money of which he only owns 16.7%

No. Its company assets. Although he owns 16.7% equity, he has >50% of the voting power. Meaning he has absolute authority to dictate how that money is spent. The other 80% can only sell their equity and this doesn't mean they get to take away 80% of the company assets.

Control doesn't make it his money. His money is only small fraction of the money being spent.

You made two statements that he is spending his money and spending money makes it not an achievement if it successful.

Neither of it is true , bootstrapping your way to success may make it even more impressive achievement, but success with or without money is difficult achievement that shouldn't be belittled.

> he is spending his money

Say I have >50% control:

Can I make it a dynastic company and ensuring my kids gain control of the company? Yes.

Who can stop me? No one.

Can I dilute everyone else's shares and issues dividends when I want? Yes.

Can I issue dividends only to a certain class of shares ensuring those shares which I own a super majority get paid? Yes.

Can I fire the board when I want? Yes.

I mean sure. Its not his money, but its his company. Through and through.

> His money is only small fraction of the money being spent.

Company assets is not equity. I am not sure you fully understand how equity works.

> spending money makes it not an achievement if it successful.

No. Depends on how you spend it. Again, read my last comment.

Do read up on minority shareholder rights. Controlling Voting shares is not as the same hash rate in crypto, owning 51% doesn't give you effective control to do anything you want. There are restrictions on what you can and cannot do .
Minority shareholder rights arose because of past abuses, but the advantage is still very much to the majority shareholder. Your odds of winning a case against a majority shareholder is slim to none and would takes years to resolve in court. So my argument stands firmly. You have a overly simplistic and idealistic view of how equity works.

This argument is getting boring so I am going to stop here. If you still think you are right, then I wish you all the best in the real world.

It will include scanning people’s faces and a thousand other privacy vortexes
Do you mean the Facebook metaverse or the general concept?

I can't comment on Facebook. The current discussion surrounding the 'metaverse' often describes something that is more open, almost like the internet. Whether or not this happens in practice remains to be seen. I think the idea is that you may be able to teleport between worlds(servers run by companies or other entities) and carry some amount of your state with you.

I remain cynical. As someone who grew up reading William Gibson and dreaming of 'cyberspace' you'd think I'd be excited but I see this as being just as boring as Second Life and There but with better graphics. The metaverse talk lately reminds me of when CE mfgs decided they needed to push 3DTV on everyone because they were running out of fancy new things to drive TV sales. This is likely just a way to create a new channel for monetizing.

The Facebook metaverse
Facebook has already had three tries at the metaverse - the Oculus version, Facebook Spaces, and Facebook Horizon. They're all so bad that Facebook won't give out user counts.
Whatever anybody thinks "metaverse" means now, what it really means, Facebook is going to change it permanently or go out of business. They have to be able to define away every negative aspect of their new metaphorical identity or they'll be used to undermine every future development of FB.

Meta was created out of a life or death situation (perceived or otherwise), so they have to gain control over their future so that it isn't possible for that to happen again. None of Gibson's words can prevent or counteract this.

We're all talking about the Metaverse instead of whatever else is going on with Facebook. So it changed the public narrative. However, the latest earnings report was fine, so rumors of Meta's demise are quite exaggerated. Their other web properties will remain profitable for a long time.

I see many others here calling out FB's pending decline, but I don't see anyone offering a clear thesis for how it happens. It could simply be wishful thinking. Locking down iOS doesn't mean Meta can't do targeted advertising with all previously collected data. Less effective, sure, but not meaningfully so.

Not financial death. Oracle is having the best years and making a ton of profit, but it is boring company with mediocre work and toxic reputations. Oracle cloud is still being sold and no cares. FB doesn't want to become the next Oracle

It is about its relevance as a cool tech company. They will not be able to hire or retain the best engineers with current reputation problem they have.

Oracle is backed by the CIA and other spook orgs, they'll always be fine.
IMO Facebook's actual death is mostly visible in RL.

The only people in my circle left on Facebook were the party seeking folks. Now with Corona the organisation of parties changed enough to render facebook irrelevant. Now left are mid 30 single moms who likely spend more time on Instagram anyway.

Then there is WhatsApp. I can tell it had bad news again when I get a sudden rush of 'x is now using telegram'. I can't remember the last time someone asked me for a WhatsApp number.

Instagram is similar, once a daily driver for some it now looks and appears like a ad platform where most content wandered elsewhere (tiktok for that matter)

Sure this is anectotal, but in my environment Facebook actually is visible dying.

Pretty much.

The possibly good news is it shows that Facebook doesn't really know how to avert its own decline.

Google Search and Android are worse than they were before Alphabet.
Web 1 had a lot of ideas that failed because they were too early, not because they were inherently bad ideas. Not sure if Metaverse will work exactly like SL did, or if its even the right idea, but it certainly will have a larger audience and lower cost of entry for both users and developers.
This is the correct answer. Lots of old ideas were in fact horrible ideas, until suddenly they weren't. Cannons were awful, right up till Napoleon proved otherwise.

I think people are so skeptical due to a combination of disliking Facebook and the usual "overestimating the impact of years, underestimating the impact of decades."

Wouldn't it be remarkable if 2021 happened to get the web exactly right? Think of it: in 3021, people will be using Twitter just like they do now, with Chrome and plugins and all the rest.

Projecting forward helps dispel your own preconceptions. And then you conclude "Why not build it now?" -- There's often not much standing in the way, except a whole lot of work (along with a fair bit of luck).

It seems like most of us just don't want Facebook to own the next Twitter. Admittedly, that's a scary proposition.

I suppose my advice would be to become comfortable with that sooner than later. Zuck has never gotten big bets wrong. It's possible this will be the first, but I wouldn't want to take the other side of that bet if my money was on the line.

It's hard for me to imagine one of the incumbents leading the next generation of innovation, despite the copious amounts of capital to execute it. They view the world through their own Overton window, such that the next leap forward will originate from some perspective independent of their own. Brick-and-mortar stores weren't going to be the ones pushing online sales. A lot of the last few years have been copy/paste product ideas from other smaller social media companies: that's the reality. FB realized not everything has to be a timeline. At best, Meta could be something truly novel, but at its worst, it's just marketing to paper over the lack of innovative Product leadership within FB.
Meta can buy fresh blood. Oculus was acquired. Parts of Oculus were acquired and acquihired. If a smaller company innovates in this space, acquisition by Meta is an obvious business plan. Zuckerberg is a geek almost young enough to be my kid. If I can imagine a thriving metaverse, and I can, I don’t see why he can’t.
Isn't this just a forced rebranding during s time of pr nightmares that has nothing to do with actually building a successful "metaverse"?
Don’t read much into the product side of meta. Metaverse is just a hedge, so that if Apple shows us how to do VR/AR “right,” Facebook will have $10B worth of pieces on the board to be competitive, allowing them to avoid another iOS platform risk. Owning a platform provides leverage elsewhere too. Apple will be Apple, but maybe Facebook can be Android, next time around. (As a side benefit, it also helps “rally the troops,” which is needed given current morale.)
ya obviously it's reasonable that Facebook changed the name of their company for a "hedge"
Actually it’s totally reasonable. They got bad press and rebranded to seem hip and futuristic. It’s that simple
Eh, I don’t know. Nothing of value was renamed — Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp are unchanged. And “Meta” is a good name for an umbrella organization, even if they drop their VR ambition entirely.
It's a vision for when VR/AR transitions from being heavy clunky hardware with niche use cases and early adopters, to lightweight powerful hardware with wide use cases and majority adoption. Similar to how mobile phones started out with a small group of adopters, then technologically evolved enabling more use cases, got small enough to fit in our pockets and now everyone has one. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_adoption_life_cycle

The idea that we will work and play in the metaverse is blocked by the hardware right now. If the hardware is amazing (say, a regular looking pair of glasses) and can actually enable an immersive computing experience, that is more productive and better at connecting people, why wouldn't you use it? Regardless of who builds the platforms and experiences.

I wouldn't use a non-FOSS platform or experience for non-corporate reasons. My employer wants me to use a particular hardware? Fine, but I'm not using my money for it, I won't like it, and I'll break it every chance I get.

The idea that I will work and play in the metaverse is forever and eternally blocked by which particular group of assholes is trying to wrangle me. If it's a group that allows me the same access they have, which enable me to wrangle the tech and myself? I'll pay triple the premium, just to stick it to Zuck and other proprietary scum.

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> I wouldn't use a non-FOSS platform or experience

You are in the extreme minority, if smartphone trends are to be treated as any kind of indication. So your actions likely would not matter to Meta/Apple/Google.

I'm with him in that. And I am glad I am able to clarify this for you, Android OS is built upon a FOSS project ( AOSP ) and that is by and large the most popular OS in the world. There's ton of community projects that prove that millions use and contribute to FOSS mobile software.

Oh and there's no way in hell this corny Horizon Workrooms will ever, ever take off.

To me, Meta is a more nefarious hint at the collection and backroom sale of users' metadata.

Whether meta fails or succeeds is not related to the openness of the solution. People do not care. They will literally pay thousands of dollars for a device they do not own if you show them shiny things.
Unfortunately, I was born into a world without FOSS phones yet where phones are mandatory. I've therefore unhappily furnished Google with more money than I'd ever have liked to, did my best to scrub the hardware of their taint, and treat it like an adversary.

Thankfully, for now, VR is not mandatory. If it becomes mandatory in the long dusk of my latter years then I will be content as a grumpy old man humbuggering about the kids with their newfangled record players.

And, yes, I am in the extreme minority. It has a negatively, and severely, impacted my social life (on top of being socially ungraceful, I have relatively far less space to ply my social wares). I'm so thoroughly radicalized that this is merely another price I'm happy to pay.

My actions don't matter to them, and I aspire to a day where their actions have a similar impact to me.

you replied to this message using open source code and an open protocol.
I used a locked down phone to do it. I can't even get root on this phone, and this is the more open platform, compared to the only other alternative.
Nothing is also an alternative.

It's impressive how comprehensively consumerism has persuaded people that you have to buy something.

I respect your opinion and completely understand where you are coming from, but I think you should also consider the amount of technical effort, organization and money required to build something like an open platform/protocol for the metaverse + all the advanced hardware required. It would be awesome if a group of strangers from the internet were able to band together and build this, but let's face it, they will have no where near the resources and talent a place like Meta, Google, Apple or Microsoft has. They have the top engineers on the planet, hardware pipelines and the resources to actually make these ideas become reality.. or virtual reality? :)
I absolutely respect the technical challenge of the Metaverse, but also: I'm not really interested in it.

I live a fairly tech-minimal lifestyle already. I have my computer, which is largely a tty machine, and my phone. All of my media is either downloaded music files, pirated lectures, or physical books.

I think of VR/AR, the Metaverse, etc. ... and it fills me with a sort of vertigo. I'm desperately in love with my physical existence, as such. I very much abhor any attempt to make computers _more_ present in my life.

I'm happy to wait 30+ years for a Metaverse that doesn't repulse me. If I were to die without ever having worn a VR headset, I'd be likewise happy.

I'm much more interested in finding ways to meaningfully, socially, connect via my terminal. I've been happy with IRC for the past 5 years and see no reason why I won't be happy in the future.

EDIT: thanks to mosh and termux, my phone is also largely a tty machine.

There are open platforms for it (OpenSim) and communities exist.
There are open platforms and protocols for it (OpenSimulator eg) and communities exist.
In the most recent episode of the Exponent [1] Ben Thompson and James Allworth make the interesting argument that it's intended to recreate the enterprise-to-consumer transition that PCs made but for VR technology. That is to say that very low price-sensitivity enterprise money will end up funding dramatic technological improvements in VR that can then be more effectively deployed to capture consumers.

[1] https://exponent.fm/episode-196-forecasting-the-metaverse/

Second Life didn't have the resources of a (approx) trillion-dollar company to pour into a solution by a CEO convinced it's the future. That can fix a lot of problems and force a lot of adoption.
A company that already makes the best selling VR hardware by a healthy margin.
Second Life was limited in many ways, as far as gameplay goes. Ultimately it failed because it was boring, in my opinion. More modern examples of games that approach this concept are Minecraft or Roblox (public company valued at $45B). Roblox in particular is interesting as it created a platform for others to make game experiences and re-sell them, and it's been very successful. Minecraft, too, has had a lot of staying power and has an active community.

The problem with Roblox, is that it's geared for kids primarily, it's centralized and it also has I believe a 30% fee. You have the same issues as you have with the mobile app stores: an excessive take rate and risk of being deplatformed at any time (like the early Facebook and Twitter apps). You don't really have ownership. But it does underscore the idea that if you create the right environment for shared gaming experiences and creativity it can be very interesting and entertaining.

The crypto metaverse is attempting to use digital property rights represented as NFTs to facilitate permissionless value creation and exchange. Just as real world property rights give owners the stability and framework with which to build long-term investments, understanding they can take risks and potentially reap rewards for those risks, the hope is that digital property rights will do the same.

The NFT space is very interesting and the gaming sector in crypto is evolving pretty rapidly. Some interesting attempts I see at creating these experiences are Sandbox (https://www.sandbox.game/en/), Decentraland (https://decentraland.org/), and Treeverse (https://www.treeverse.net/).

I think it's still super early days for this stuff. It's likely that a lot of the current attempts will fail, but I believe this concept is going through its 90s dot com phase, and we'll get a few gems out of this movement that stand the test of time.

Ultimately it failed because it was boring, in my opinion.

This, in fact, the real problem. Second Life really is a virtual world, not a game. You log in, and you're somewhere in a virtual world the size of Greater London. Now what? The virtual world itself is completely indifferent to you. You can do nothing, if you choose, and nothing will happen. You will not be attacked by monsters. You will not be destroyed by a shrinking vortex. You can go to an area that's not busy and sit or stand for as long as you want to stay logged in. A car might drive by. The sun will rise and set. Not much else will happen.

You can travel around and look at stuff. You can talk to people. There are games to play if you can find them. You can build stuff. You can sell stuff. But you have to find things to do. There are guides and search tools, but you have to use them. It's a "pull" system like the web, not a "push" system like Facebook.

This totally throws a sizable fraction of new users, mostly those who want a pre-structured entertainment experience. It's great for the fraction of the population that likes to build something from nothing. That small fraction.

The second part of "boring" is that Second Life is really sluggish. This is a fixable problem, stemming from legacy code from the era of OpenGL and single-CPU desktops.

Nobody has really looked hard enough at metaverse client theory yet. You have many of the problems of an MMO client, in that you have to present a real-time 3D environment. And you have many of the problems of a web browser, in that the network throws un-optimized stuff at you and you have to deal with it. The big game engines, UE5 and Unity, don't address that latter problem.

All this looks quite fixable, if you target a gamer-level GPU (even one from 5 years ago), a few CPUs, an SSD disk for caching, and over 100mb/s networking. This is what the average Steam user has. We ought to be able to get up to GTA V level visual quality and frame rate. Second Life has content that good.

A third problem with Second Life is that the social features are terrible. The group message system has been losing messages for a year due to a scaling problem. (It was designed so that you could talk to people in your party, not broadcast to your store's customer base.) The voice system, outsourced to Vivox, is flaky. There's two decades of technical debt and not much will or money to fix it.

Mainstream metaverse adoption may be a problem in the era of the $1000 phone and the $200 laptop. What we're seeing right now are new low-end virtual worlds that look like games from 15 years ago. Many run inside a browser. This may be why few people actually spend time in Decentraland. The VR headgear people really don't have much more compute power than a phone. Beat Saber, fine. Breakroom, OK. Big virtual world, not so much.

On line right now:

- Roblox: 1,446,121 users.

- Second Life: 35,008 users.

- VRchat: 29,072 users.

- Decentraland: 604 users.

- Facebook Horizon: they're not saying.

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Conceptually speaking, the difference with AR/VR is that you can have a truly immersive experience, which really does give you more possibilities than just Second Life, which was always just a 3D game world on a 2D screen. The pitch from Meta and with AR/VR is that with the ability to use 3D space, you can actually turn Second Life-style virtual worlds into something useful with actual tangible benefits. For example, VR/AR sense-of-presence totally outclasses video calls, if the intent is to feel like you're really in a room with someone. VRChat is already one of the most popular VR apps for a reason.

Long term, I think that you have to look at it like this: most desktop computing is very very 2D centric and touch centric. If you want to, e.g., buy a product on Amazon, you're dealing with photos and imagery of a product, and reviews. But if you had a "Metaverse equivalent" you could view a 3D model, see it in action, and physically size compare it to other objects in your house much easier than manually checking dimensions.

Obviously the applications and benefits aren't as clear cut right now. I'm not sure that the windowed operating systems we have today would have been the obvious way that computers would be used if it weren't for constant iteration on keyboard centric UI and experimentation over many years. That same innovation trend hasn't happened with AR/VR, and "the metaverse" that people talk about now will likely be totally different 20 years after it becomes a thing, post-iteration and innovation.

I'm pretty skeptical it'll ever take off. Having tried to hang around in the Oculus Go spaces early on, it was pretty clear no one really had a great reason for being there. You'd sit around a badly rendered bonfire and hear people talking, sometimes interestingly, but it had about the same level of interest as getting on a CB and talking to strangers.

There are two kinds of people you can meet in VR: Friends and strangers. Friends, you can meet privately. You don't need a public space 'verse for that. And as for jostling around or randomly talking to strangers, well, you can walk outside or go to a bar.

It seems pretty nuts that Facebook would actually put its chips on this proposition. I can only view it as a totally desperate attempt to distract from the train wreck of their core business model.

>Friends, you can meet privately

if you live close to one another. If you don't, I guess this could be interesting? I don't really see myself using it but I am so old fashioned that I prefer my laptop over my phone so I get that the world doesn't always agree with me.

Well, or you can meet privately on Zoom, or in VR if you prefer to see fake bodies instead of actual faces. I mean. My friends from around the country have a Zoom poker night every week or two which we started during the pandemic. I'd rather just see their ugly mugs and their kids in the background than sit in a fake room with a bunch of cartoon avatars.
The photo realistic avatars they showed off change this. They were impressive - still in research stage, but it’s not just a cartoon.
Not really sure if photorealistic avatar can really express all the emotions and facial expressions in a detail that people perceive subconsciously.

This might lead to people becoming more tone-deaf and having less empathy when reading others.

Not to mention Facebook gathering a dataset that is a virtual replica of your physical self. Imagine how much that would me sold on for...
My friends are far-flung and we meet privately in our Discord. We have an audio channel, and anyone who's free hops into it at their leisure. VR wouldn't add much there; to take advantage of it would require us to look at each other, which precludes doing an actual activity like playing a game together.
But there is clubhouse (presuming it’s still popular?) which has turned strangers into friends but maybe that’s because of it being pure audio and minimal interface. It’s possible someone will create a similar popular “gameplay” in vr?
This sounds like Krugman's fax machine prediction
To me, the problem is finding situations where immersiveness actually adds value.

I think for a lot of social interactions, it doesn't, or it offers rapidly diminishing value.

This conversation would not be meaningfully better as a virtual/augmented reality 3D live chat.

The Google Hangouts (or whatever it's called this week) meetings with my team at work would not be better either.

I'm not even sure it would beat playing a pen-and-paper RPG with friends over Discord and Roll20.

Now, there's two ways this could end up panning out:

1) The "metaverse" ends up sticking to the scenarios where immersive experiences add value. I'd expect this would be mostly gaming, media consumption, and some specific built-for-the-platform educational products.

2) We figure out new paradigms that make it worthwhile to replace current collaboration or communications tools.

What confuses me on point 2 is that I think we're going to have to basically invent new paradigms for "window management". The thing I'm picturing is doing a PowerPoint presentation in VR. We'd have people jostling for the best view, and whatever "immersive" metaphor for presenting is likely to be clunkier than a classic Zoom call where the slides are just walked through on one big window.

I'm not sure the 3D shopping model will come to meaningful fruition. We have plenty of retailers who can't even get text descriptions right, especially when it comes to huge catalogues. Are they really going to spend bazillions of dollars building accurate models, making sure the sizes track properly, etc?

Note that Amazon already supports product listings with interactive 360 degree product visualizations. It's only a small step from there to full 3D modeled product renderings. That said, I can't say I would find it especially compelling to peruse a 3D model in VR as opposed to perusing it on a normal screen. Either way it just involves rotating our perspective around the rendering and observing it via the 2D planes of our eyes. I can imagine some small utility if I could accurately measure the dimensions of the product at arbitrary angles in VR, as a sort of freeform replacement for schematic diagrams, but that requires trust that the product listers will actually get the scale correct, and it would not be an overwhelmingly common use case.
From experience in DTC retail, this is more of an AR (not VR) benefit. I think (because I can’t remember the exact examples) that Amazon, IKEA, and a few others already do a “See it in your room!” feature. With smartphones with LiDAR/equivalent scanning this becomes really easy. Other retailers like H&M already use digital human models and clothes so it’s a short leap there as well.
I think that immersiveness would be great for programming.

Stacking windows with a z axis may give you a sense of how nested an abstraction is. You could follow a function in a class to it's base definition a lot easier, etc.

You don’t need to spend billions. Generating 3d models from stitching images together is possible and with some automation and focused products it will become much easier
>What confuses me on point 2 is that I think we're going to have to basically invent new paradigms for "window management". The thing I'm picturing is doing a PowerPoint presentation in VR. We'd have people jostling for the best view, and whatever "immersive" metaphor for presenting is likely to be clunkier than a classic Zoom call where the slides are just walked through on one big window.

As someone who has given a couple presentations in VR (and spent ~400 hours coding/working in VR), there's a lot to be done here. Some very basic examples of value-adds are:

- You (or your audience) can manipulate the presentation "viewport" to any size and/or replicate it wherever each viewer prefers in their own space (e.g. you can sit down on your couch and watch the presentation on a big screen, or have it as a "second monitor" next to something else, or treat it Hololens-pinned style and have the screen follow you around in your vision while you're working on something with your hands). IME, it's much nicer than effectively giving yourself a limited vertical screen monitor when you split screen a meeting/presentation on Zoom.

- Streaming a replicated presentation video (like a powerpoint) to each individual person instead of streaming a singular one over a Zoom call lets viewers refer back to / rewind to previous slides without disturbing others' views.

- Having a large view of a presentation yourself means you can also take notes directly on that presentation in real time, circle/underline text, draw arrows between concepts, whatever you need to help yourself remember what the speaker said later. I helped beta an app (that unfortunately shut down) for taking notes in the margins of videos in VR which would probably be a perfect use-case for things like presentations/classes. You could play back or scrub through the video later to see your notes in time.

- Obvious, but any presentation about a 3D _thing_ will benefit from being displayed in a 3D space. I'd much rather see a new Tesla in front of me than look at a 2D image of it, or see the scale of a new roller coaster, statue, building plan, etc. In "physical presense" situations like this, there's also a value-add over the real thing because you don't have to "jostle for the best view" -- you can just phase through (or not even see) other viewers and always have a front-row seat (and teleport around if you want more angles). For smaller objects, being able to manipulate the scale of the object (especially without also affecting the scale other people are seeing it at) is a nice QoL, too.

- For meetings and things with audience participation, it's way more intuitive in a 3D space to split up into groups (and e.g. only be able to see/hear people near you) by just... walking over to a group and joining in. I can't imagine doing something like small group icebreakers in a company's Zoom presentation.

There's probably a lot of new paradigms and workflows to emerge when the VR space is a little more mature, as well. I've been out of it for a few months now (moved and haven't re-set-up base stations) and I tried to limit my value-adds to just presentations, but I'm excited to see where it goes in the productivity realm.

You say that chat is not better in VR than on a 2D screen

I’m just curious, have you ever actually used it? Caught up and had a beer with an old buddy. There’s a reason chat is currently the killer app for VR

Lately I've been thinking of VR/AR as simply a 3D UI for computers. We are already built to handle a 3D world, it is natural and intuitive to us. So VR/AR could be the next popular UI for computers, something anyone can use. Not saying it will happen, it has already not happened several times, but it could and the naturalness of it could be why. It would take a lot of work to make it as easy to navigate and use as the real world is, without also bringing along all the problems with navigating the real world.
I would argue that the metaverse is not competing with Google Hangouts or Discord. In fact, you will still be able to use these things inside the metaverse and will still get value out of them.

The metaverse is not competing against the 2D internet by trying to make it immersive, but rather against the physical world by trying to make it more useful. From that perspective, VR offers value everywhere the laws of physics are inconvenient, which is just about everywhere.

Take the example of walking to a college class on a rainy day. In the physical world, you have to carry an umbrella, and the walk takes 15 minutes. In the metaverse, you can tell the rain not to make you wet, or you can teleport to class without ever going outside.

How does your example show an advantage over logging into Zoom from your home laptop?
It’s the spatial factor. Imagine being in a room with 40 other people and then breaking up into groups of 5. My group of 5 will organize together spatially so that we can hear each other well but still being able to hear some background noise from others. If something from another group catches my eye, I can walk over there and see what’s up and interact. This is not possible to do in a zoom meeting because it doesn’t even have a sense of 2D let alone 3D space.
Similar to what I said in GP, the metaverse is not a competitor to Zoom but to the physical world where you are using the laptop.

In the physical world, you have to buy that laptop and maintain it. You need to keep it close to you in order to access Zoom. It takes up space, has weight, and has one screen of fixed size which may crack or degrade. The layout of the keyboard can't be changed if you decide you want to try DVORAK instead of QWERTY, or if you decide you would type faster with a numpad. Any of the keys may stop working. Fashions may change so that the laptop looks ugly or retro, or simply looks bad to you, and your only recourse if you want to change that is to buy a new one. If you are using the laptop and someone is standing behind you, he can see your Zoom call and hear what you say regardless of whether you want him to. Earbuds give some privacy but come with a lot of the same issues as the laptop.

Eventually, there will be none of these physical limitations in the metaverse. There will be limitations on the headset, or whatever hardware you're using to access the metaverse, but that's only one item instead of every aspect of your life.

We're living in a prison of physical constraints, but we see them as so inevitable that we don't even bother to complain.

The physical world and its constraints don't cease to exist because you're wearing a headset, but a headset-based metaverse does cease to exist if you've only got a pocket sized phone with you.

In that respect the metaverse adds rather than subtracts physical constraints compared with a world where we interact with people remotely over low bandwidth video rather than expensively rendered high definition virtual environments

I understand that you point is that it would be such a new paradigm that it's hard to imagine applications. That being said, it is funny that the only 2 use cases you mentioned are 1) a way to see people in person less frequently and 2) a way to buy more stuff.
Only goofy asocial types think that you can actually replace actual human interactions with virtual reality. Would you rather actually meet your friends, or have your virtual avatars meet up in some fake VR world?
That's an important point. Matthew Ball, the venture capitalist, made the insightful comment a few months back that COVID-19 changed that. It is now possible to use a virtual world without being considered a loser.
By the way, I'm a goofy introvert myself, so I hope people don't see that as an insult or anything :).

COVID-19 might've made remote work mainstream, but I don't think it will fundamentally change the way we interact with other people in our social life. I think given the choice, most people would rather go out to pubs, restaurants, parties, etc... to experience other people face to face rather than be stuck in a virtual world. The virtual world was a last resort. Even during lockdowns people had underground parties (I've even been in a few!).

I personally grew up spending much of my high school years in IRC chatrooms, having virtual friendships with anonymous people. But I'm an introvert, and most other kids did not share my experience so I'm a bit skeptical on the mass appeal of these virtual worlds.

Used to be goofy asocial types on Usenet/IRC/etc, now the whole world communicates via Facebook/Twitter/etc. So it's hard to say!
I'm sure someone said something similar when they first heard of the telephone.
If you strap enough rockets to a pig, it will fly.

If you throw enough cash at a problem, it will be "solved".

I remember google wave. Remember that? The noise it made when it came out. What a mess. And then we got slack and discord and we must admit it somewhat solves the same ideas.

So I don't know. We might very well be in VR goggles in 10 years surrounded by 25 virtual screens, 5 notification systems and parallel windows updates while bidding on a new VR background, on a NFT trading platform using some shitty cryptocurrency we've never heard of 2 weeks prior.

Or we could just be on a terminal in vim doing the same shit as today.

I only hope we have choices. Because this new internet they're trying to push is further away from RFCs and open protocols than we've ever been. And that's very sad. Our parents gave us a free internet where everything is possible, and we're doing our very best to destroy that idea to a world of wall gardens and consumerism where the very few will even know how it works.

Google wave was largely about real time collaboration.

Most of those ideas live on Google docs , SharePoint and notion and other tools. Am not sure how discord or slack solves the same ideas.

it was a hard problem to solve especially back then CRDTs were not baked in to any out of box large scale db, however it wasn't premature .

To me it always looked like an experimental product from which mature product took the good parts, no different from Gmail incorporating ideas from Inbox

Google Wave was my first association when I've heard about FB goin full meta(verse). The whole thing is just so "meta" it just shows how they're trying to solve all the problems of humanity by being blindsided by the opportunity of remote work/life because of COVID. Metaverse is just too abstract as Google Wave was.
Remember when Google worked on a second Life killer? I think it was called lifely or so.
Lively. One of the many Google products they killed that nobody mourns or remembers.

Wave, Lively and Second Life have some useful lessons in them that it may be worth recalling. Second Life is/was of course the most ambitious attempt to build a metaverse, by far. It never broke out of its niche in the way Minecraft did partly due to insurmountable frame rate and resource usage problems that Linden Lab assumed at the start they'd inevitably overcome, but which they never really did. It's also the reason SL couldn't have been used in VR. Lively was to some extent an attempt to solve this problem with Second Life. However it simply created a different, worse set of problems. Lively also suffered from being seen as the pet product of one of the (at the time) extremely rare female product managers at Google, so she was basically given a team and budget to do what she wanted because hey! Isn't that great! Go women! But the project didn't actually have any executive support and the cutesy design was seen as wildly out of step with Google's brand at the time. So when it failed to set the world on fire immediately it was quickly shelved and the PM moved on.

SL's biggest problem is that it's very difficult to render user-generated content performantly, in ways that look good. Minecraft solves this problem by sacrificing the 'looks good' aspect, partly because it had no pretence of being a metaverse, but SL explicitly wanted to do the Snow Crash thing and thus allowed you to place more or less arbitrary scripted 3D meshes inside the world. Unfortunately the structure of the world, and how users wanted to use it, were the opposite of how you do performant 3D graphics:

1. SL is set outdoors. Thus draw distances are huge and many, many objects can be captured by the camera simultaneously. This places huge load on the CPU and GPU. At the time, the standard was for 3D games to be set indoors, largely to limit draw distance.

2. Many constructions in SL are buildings that contain translucent windows. This is much more intensive to render (requires overdraw).

3. Many constructions in SL are very odd shapes which make it difficult to rapidly determine if they intersect things. Part of why "land" in SL was so expensive was the need to run physics simulations and collision detection against objects that were not designed to make it cheap.

4. Because every object was fully dynamic and the user could change the world at any time, all optimizations based on batch processing of static data e.g. lightmap baking, were unavailable to SL, trashing their performance still further.

5. Because land was all adjacent in one uniform world, at the edges renderer performance was effectively a tragedy of the commons. Even in the rare cases that an SL content creator learned about the limits of the SL 3D engine and worked within them, their hard work could be undone by someone in land next to them constructing a giant tower filled with translucent windows.

Lively attempted to solve these problems by limiting art to a team of professional 3D artists. However this gave the world an entirely predictable, sterile corporate feel that appealed to nobody. Same problem as why Lego Worlds failed to compete with Minecraft. Additionally the Lively team had to spend a lot of engineering effort dealing with Google's infrastructure decisions, which at the time were optimized for apps that could use eventual consistency. See my comment from a few days ago on this topic [1].

The relevance to Wave is mostly that Wave was sort of the 2D content version of Second Life. It went all-in on very hard computer science problems, and did so in a web browser, on the assumption that they'd just figure out how to make it performant later. But they never did. Moreover the flexibility of the tool meant it was often confusing to figure out and quickly developed a perception that it was half baked, buggy and required a mastery of the tool to use. For something explicitly about collaborati...

Probably worth noting: many of the recent “metaverse/web3” (not Metaverse) developments, for example ERC721, are also RFCs and open protocols. Yet unlike typical web RFCs we’ve seen in the last decade, they are generally not only decided upon and ultimately driven by a small handful of browser monopolies.
> I only hope we have choices. Because this new internet they're trying to push is further away from RFCs and open protocols than we've ever been. And that's very sad. Our parents gave us a free internet where everything is possible, and we're doing our very best to destroy that idea to a world of wall gardens and consumerism where the very few will even know how it works.

We do have choices. There's a LOT of innovation happening on Ethereum right now with Decentraland, VR gaming, NFT's (so you actually own your own items) etc. The open, free Metaverse is coming.

I'm a former Facebook employee, and also worked on VR at Google ~2015.

I don't think it's different. I think if you went back in time and asked 18 year old Zuck what the future of online interaction would be, he'd basically tell you about second life.

The only difference is that now the technology is better and enough people who are not Zuck are talking about it, so Zuck can steer the ship without everyone jumping off.

I just see it as a business opportunity. Half an hour better spend in nature than with goggles, but surely you can make good money from it early on.
It's popped up again because they made a movie out of Ready Player One, so now lots of people are talking about the VR immersive world concept after watching that movie.
My question with the metaverse concept is always, "Why? What's the point?"

I can think of two parties that have their own answers:

1) A certain group of people who like computers and grew up reading sci-fi think it would be cool; some even tell themselves it's very important, but for vague reasons that they can't really articulate

2) Centers of capital are interested in it as yet another platform for consumption, attention-capturing, and rent-seeking

I think Zuckerberg is both. But I'm not convinced that society at large has any real motivation to buy into something like this, unless the sheer novelty ends up being powerful enough to rope people in.

Note that a world without a "metaverse" still has a place for VR/AR. Having a complete, interconnected virtual world is not a prerequisite for all the utilities and entertainment that that hardware technology can be used for. And to me it just feels like an incredibly unnecessary layer on top, which serves no real purpose to anyone outside of those first two groups.

You wrote the exact same thing I wanted to write. I still haven't got a satisfactory answer to that question though.
I have a similar take on how VR lets you show ads much beyond a rectangular screen, so plausibly commands higher ad revenue if monetised. FB needs to grow the pie bigger: the user growth is flatlining.
Facebook's ad product is shit. They exist because they're a monopoly. Their ad product is shit because they don't understand their clients (advertisers) at all and would rather sink R-n-D into keeping the monopoly thing going instead of figuring out market fit for their product. (In that regard Facebook is exactly like Google.)

t. Worked more than 16 years in ad tech.

Out of curiosity, what don’t they understand about advertisers?
I agree. At this point Zucks metaverse sounds just like another XBox Home Screen, in VR. A place were you want to spend as little time as possible, on your way to use the real apps.
Books told stories for ages, but movies enhanced the experience and created a new breed of people who pre movies over books. Similarly we use phones for all our purposes, xr will enhance it
The difference is that your phone is a utility, not a piece of art. So XR would have to be more practical than the current interface, which, maybe advanced AR will be. But even then, that's just an AR GUI, not a "metaverse".

And then on the non-utilitarian side, XR entertainment/storytelling is already a thing. You don't need a metaverse for that.

Maybe like Ready Player One, people will use Meta if the outside / real word sucks enough. Here you can be anything you want to be…
Only if what you want to be is two floating eyes and two floating hands in a videogame.
It's an evolution of how you can communicate: pictures/written form -> 2D movies -> 3D movies -> AR/VR.
The only thing that counts when you create a B2C product is how much time each user will spend time on your product per day.

There is no goal to achieve for the user. Zuck is a very smart guy and knows that Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Twitter, Youtube ... are activities for people. And those activities will keep being popular only a handful of years. If you don't want the Meta Inc, company's revenue to collapse you have to innovate and be part of the next hot thing.

Nobody knows what is going to be the next hot thing, Zuck just want it to be the metaverse. So the metaverse doesn't need to have a point, it just needs to be successful

The value to Mark Zuckerberg is obvious, the question is what’s the value to users? Why is it fun? Why is it interesting?
> There is no goal to achieve for the user

I mean... there won't be users at all if there's nothing in it for the user.

Second Life allowed for a lot of the NSFW content and interactions that people tend to enjoy both in entertainment and in real life (this is also true of VRChat to some extent). Metaverse will be a sanitized, sterile project for children. Fundamentally the people like Zuckerberg responsible for its execution do not understand what people want, which is why Metaverse has no chance of success.
Guard rails never work completely, even in kids worlds (i.e. the "babboing 4 furni" trend in habbo hotel).

NSFW content will always find a way.

Always.

What is "babboing 4 furni"? Search seems to find only this very comment for these terms.
I have owned land in Second Life continuously for probably ten years or more. Haven't been on recently but very familiar with what you are talking about. NSFW is a big part of it but by no means the only part.

Meta has a very dominant position in VR headsets. All they have to do is add add a "teleport friend" button to message notifications inside of Oculus Quest 2 when you are in the default home environment, allow some movement in the space, and they will have by far the most popular version of the Metaverse. If they want to start doing brand deals, place some store portals near the door.

You really think that won't start taking away a ton of business from VR Chat and the rest? They will win by default. They completely control the experience. From the moment you turn the headset on, you are already IN their Metaverse. It's just a shit Metaverse with no features. But regardless of what Zuck understands, there are too many highly paid geniuses around him absorbing some of his billions to not take advantage of the situation.

I honestly don't know a single person with a oculus. Many with the PlayStation or the HTC one.

I also barely know people that use Facebook. And many that are not willing to create a FB account for whatever reason.

It's just anectotal. But I don't see how this walled garden will find any widespread use around here. Just as I know no one who uses Apples walled garden chats, simply because apple never reached a critical mass and people don't like to be locked out of their friends.

I think you may already be living in an alternate reality!
It's called Switzerland tho and anyone can reach it by plane and train
Yeah. Like sibling comment said. You are already in your own wild bubble. You’re taking your anecdotes and having them explain why people are or are not doing things in general. When in reality things like Facebook, Oculus, iMessage/FaceTime are all popular.
I must be living in the same alternate reality as the GP, then. Facebook and Whatsapp are commonly used around here, but the others hardly exist at all.
You named Facebook and WhatsApp as being popular. Of course everything popular won’t be popular in your anecdotal experience. The difference is the OP dismissed a bunch of popular stuff without exception.

It is interesting you know many people with Playstation and HTC VR but none with Oculus.

Maybe for your bubble. You may realize not everyone is living in america ;)
What is my bubble? I did not mention what is popular in my anecdotal experience. You may have misread or assumed things that were not said. I did not bring America up either :).

Tldr: I did not bring up any of my own world experiences

Lol. Look up some statistics. Quest has a 75% market share, Facebook has more than 2 billion users, and there are more than 1 billion iPhone users.
Does that mean that every strong economy should follow these trends? iPhone were as popular as 60% of all sold phones here some years ago, and yet facetime & iMessage did never really get any relevance because of the other 40%. No circle of friends is generally iPhone only, never was.

Switzerland may is different, but also representative of a wealthy kinda smart economy.

What does kinda smart economy mean?

I don’t know where your first question comes from. Myself and this other parent are merely saying the stats say differently. Nothing about your first question.

I FaceTime with someone in Switzerland. It doesn’t mean much. I know Apple’s ecosystem isn’t big in Europe. However, when I interact with people across the ocean, they have a pretty easy time using Apples FaceTime if they are on iOS. Sometimes even if just iPad.

In this situation I’m the one pushing friendships more. Otherwise it would be douchey to have someone pull out an iPad just to FaceTime with you.

Sorry if any of my messages seem confrontational. Sometimes I’m upset with my own life and don’t speak as nicely as I should.

A lot of my thoughts come from the small organic free virtual coworking community i cofounded (in my bio :o). Before that, my experience with talking to Europeans on a near daily basis had never been there.

> Fundamentally the people like Zuckerberg responsible for its execution do not understand what people want

I agree with the broader point, but Facebook owns three of the most popular apps in the world. They have at least some idea of what people want.

Do they really? Only one of those they created, the others they bought after they'd already become the most popular apps. You don't have to have any ideas to just measure what's already popular and buy it.
Instagram acquisition price (2012): $1B Instagram projected ad revenue (2021, projected): $18B

They do more than just buy apps. We shouldn't underestimate Meta -- they can do to Oculus what they did to Instagram.

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They built Facebook and Messenger from zero users to billions. Instagram had 50 million users when Facebook bought them. WhatsApp had around 300 million. Now they each have over a billion.
I wonder if they've found a "local peak" of knowing how to get people addicted to news feeds and updates for advertising purposes. Are they really trying to figure out what people want, or just what they can monetize that is similar to what they already do?
There used to be a lot of money to be made in designing scriptable Second Life dragon dicks.
For the most part, I think it's mostly (but not all!) the same, where the hype and excitement is from a new generation of VCs and founders who didn't experience the VRML/second-life era.

Of course, not only is the technology to facilitate a metaverse is better, but I think society has also evolved a lot since then. Remote work/life is now much more of a mainstream/accepted thing than it used to be. Internet is now a mainstream full-blown appendage via our smartphones.

I'm much more optimistic a metaverse (in a Platonic ideal sense) could catch on this time around, BUT I'm much less sure that what will be hawked to us is the "right thing" (whatever that means).

I do think this article posted on HN last week is definitely onto something that Meta and other attempts may not be thinking about. https://debugger.medium.com/the-metaverse-is-already-here-it...

When the tech is as easy as putting on a pair of glasses and not that much more, and it's solid, fast, reliable, cheap - then we will have that revolution.

But it's probably 20 years and a few 'Magic Leaps' away from reality, 'pun intended'.

It may happen gradually as techines buy the big googles, they then get smaller like Ski Googles, more people get on board, then they'll just be glasses and we'll look at VR headsets like horse and carriage.

I suspect we will really start to face social problems as people in that era will not be exposed to humans that lived before the internet and were 'normal' and the hyper connectivity we did not evolve for will throw us all for uge loops.

The Metaverse is a Second Life that everybody wants to hang out in, not just some subset of gamers.

(Steel-manning the concept of course).

towards the end of SL's heyday, we were trying to make an open metaverse with OGPX, MMOX and VWRAP. alas, the company ran out of money before we could complete the work (and IBM kind of stiffed us on some IP issues.)

it's interesting to note that cory and babbage and beez and a raft of other lindens wound up at FB between 2009 and 2011. i went to pitch the idea of continuing the "open metaverse" and try to get FB to fund the VWRAP work, but no dice. 2010-2011 was way too early for virtual worlds or augmented worlds to be on the FB radar.

at linden, at the end, we wanted to build a shared world which could be fed with real or made up geo data and with a common protocol different organizations could use to cause a consistent, shared experience be delivered to end users.

the key here is "different organizations." by the end we were trying to build an open protocol linden could be a key player in, but not own it as a walled garden.

i think the prime difference here is FB wants to own the venue (walled garden) and sell different data layers to different communities.

i would be very surprised if they weren't working on an AR experience where advertisers could buy a data overlay identifying most likely consumers for specific services. so you're minding your business at the mall and someone walks up and says "excuse me ma'am, i notice you bought floral print shirt last week. we're having a sale on slacks that would complement that shirt and your colour pallette."

not to mention strossian "cop space" or a raft of less intrusive layers for different communities.

so... "own the venue" and "sell distinct value-added layers to different parties"

It seems like FB is making similar mistakes then if they want to keep it as a 'own the venue' model. I think they can afford this mistake considering but in the end, it will greatly slow down the adoption of their platform.