This isn't meaningful or insightful; it's a mess of extrapolation [1] and rose-tinted assumptions from someone who really, really wants to believe. It's exactly the same mindset that sees Jesus in a piece of toast, just with a different aesthetic.
I think it is very difficult to predict when breakthroughs will happen.
I have been an AI practitioner since GOFAI in the 1980s to using deep learning in the last eight years. I think we will continually be amazed by the power of language models like GPT-3 and text to image models like DALLE, but that isn’t AGI.
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[ 2.0 ms ] story [ 21.8 ms ] thread[1] https://xkcd.com/605/
I have been an AI practitioner since GOFAI in the 1980s to using deep learning in the last eight years. I think we will continually be amazed by the power of language models like GPT-3 and text to image models like DALLE, but that isn’t AGI.