I think you're out by, um, 4 orders of magnitude? I'm reading your post as £51950/kg i.e. 50k a kilo. But actually your link puts the prices as a very respectable 519.5p a kilo i.e. roughly a fiver a kilo which is in the right ballpark for me.
Maybe this was a joke that I didn't get?
EDIT: You edited your post after I made this, but like a fiver a kilo for lamb sounds pretty doable to me.
Yeah - I have no idea where I can buy lamb that cheap. We can get deer really cheap from a pest control guy, and we still pay more than £5 a kg (think he charges £5 a pound, as he is old school) and it is some of the cheapest (and best) meat we can buy.
Unfortunately once my wife and kids realised what type of deer is was (generally the little muntjac deer) they all went off it.
Inflation unexpectedly dipped to 9.9% in August, down from 10.1% in July, on the back of a fuel price decline.
Increasing food, transport and energy prices were the biggest contributing factors to inflation, the ONS said. Food was up 14.6% year-on-year, transport was up 10.9% compared to last year, while the price of furniture and household goods rose 10.8%.
As european countries scramble to buy energy so their local economies can keep the lights on, it will of course raise energy prices that other countries use to buy and ship things.
There's a game to played here on which country receives most of the pain, but everyone loses in absolute terms.
>Food and drink spending is generally non-discretionary so it’s not easy for shoppers to cut back.
I would bet that the majority of spending by nearly all people in the supermarket is discretionary spending.
It isn't the bread veg and meat that push the bill up for me, it's the alcohol, Sweet things etc, and that's ignoring all the stuff on the centre isles.
So I don't really agree with this statement at all
edit:
I am wrong, posted below, but I'll put it here too.
Not sure if you’d win that bet or not but my anecdata is that me and probably the majority of my social circle spend near-0 on alcohol and sweets. They/we buy good quality food and that became mighty expensive.
I dunno, man. All cereals, dairy, meat, legumes, and eggs are well above 14% from last year for me, and I'm in the USA, which has a much bigger native agricultural base than the UK. Fruits and veggies are holding pretty stable, it's true, but that's not enough caloric sustenance.
You're probably right in the sense that few people actually go for the absolute necessity only at the lowest price they can find even without any alcohol.
If you look at a typical trolley I'd wager that most people/families could cut its price quite a bit and still be fed satisfactorily if they absolutely had no choice.
I don't think people spend a majority on sweets and alcohol, but even if we think about 'non essentials'. For example, you can buy flour and make bread. premade bread is essentially discretionary.
The problem with this line of thinking is that it makes people less economically productive. Having my wife stay home and do home-made everything would certainly reduce our total grocery spending, but she's quite likely to be less economically productive spending her full time doing household work.
given that we're also getting rid of our dishwasher, washing machine, fridge, and everything else. if my wife would just roll up her sleves we could save even more money!
There are balances to be had. Long ago when I worked in a grocery store, I could cut a watermelon into quarters, wrap each up in plastic, and slap a label on each of them in under 30 seconds. Those watermelon quarters each sold for more than double the price of an entire watermelon. Even if you include the time to bring watermelons to the back room, return the slices to the sales floor, and then the refrigeration costs and opportunity costs of using highly visible space for the slices, it was still a huge markup for what couldn't have been more than a minute of labor on average.
Another n=1, everything I buy at the grocery store has gone up in price but it does seem like the more highly processed the food is, the larger the percentage increase in price. There are some notable exceptions, especially eggs and cream cheese but at least in my area, beef and pork hasn't risen in price anywhere near as much as things like Hot Pockets and ice cream.
The 14.6% "Food and non-alcoholic beverages" explicitly excludes alcohol.
"The largest upward effects came from bread and cereals, meat products, and milk, cheese and eggs, where prices rose between August and September 2022, but fell between the same two months in 2021."
Could a UK HN'er give a first-hand perspective? I'm curious to hear what it's like "on the ground" in your area, versus what a government or industry announcement might say.
At least for the US, it's a lot more nuanced than "inflation is X%" -- certain things are consistently more expensive, others are more variable, and others yet are cheaper/the same price. I'd like to understand if it's the same there.
Honestly the only place I've noticed it is the petrol pump. Fuel prices shot up dramatically early in the year. They're back down now from the peak, but still higher than they were a year ago.
It could be that it they only meant they only notice petrol price changes because during a weekly shop you're looking at dozens of items, and maybe aren't in the habit of looking at each one then at the end you pay for everything at once. Whereas petrol prices are something you tend to specifically look out for when you're out and about, and it's the main component of the bill when you go to pay.
This has me curious: has the UK's gas prices gone up consistently with "normal" inflation, or have they stayed relatively static against it until now?
Gas is already cheap in the US, but it's actually cheaper in real terms (adjusting for inflation and engine efficiency) to drive in 2022 than it was in ~2005. Is it the same there?
So I think that most people "feel" as if the price of petrol has been going up, but it really hasn't - it's been mostly frozen for years now.
As an example - I found in my google photos this picture from 2011, literally 11 years ago, and it shows petrol at 134p/litre, which is actually more expensive than it has been for few years(other than this year, obviously). Definitely 2016-2020 petrol has been around 120p/litre, with 130p/litre for premium(which I remember well because I had a sports car for those 4 years and remember thinking that 130p/litre is expensive for fuel).
Doing the weekly food shop over the last 12 months has felt reasonably nuts. For the most part, we usually get the same stuff each week (fruit/veg/meat/dried food etc...) and it's gone from being about £100 to almost £170. Fruit and veg prices in particular seem really crazy.
I live in the UK, and our weekly shop has gotten a lot more expensive than the 14%. Me and my wife did the calculation literally last month and our weekly Tesco order has gone up from £50 to £70-80. We both follow a relatively strict diet so we just order the same stuff each week, and the increases are small but they are on everything and they add up.
To give a simplest example - 4 pint milk bottle used to be £1.10 earlier in the year, now it's £1.55(and that's a cheap milk, nothing fancy) - that's an increase of 40% on milk alone.
Oh and to add to this - energy is bonkers. Last year I used to pay 3p/kWh for gas(the heating kind, not petrol), and 12p/kWh for electricity. Now it's 10p/kWh for gas and 34p/kWh for electricity with much higher standing charge(daily payment for being connected to the network) for both. In effect our energy bill tripled from £100 a month to £300 a month.
>I live in the UK, and our weekly shop has gotten a lot more expensive than the 14%. Me and my wife did the calculation literally last month and our weekly Tesco order has gone up from £50 to £70-80.
Anecdotes like this (ie. "government says inflation is x% but my grocery bill went up y%", x < y) seems to be very popular. Why is there a discrepancy? Is there some sort of methodological issue on the part of government agencies (or in this case, private data providers)? Or is there some sort of sampling/recall bias on the part of internet commenters?
The government uses a "basket of goods approach" that allows for substitutions and is averaged out over multiple grocery stores.
As someone pointed to in this thread, half of the inflation is attributed to profit increases for the grocer. Thus, it stands to reason that groceries that aren't packing on the profits would see lower price increases. So where you're shopping matters a lot.
I am completely disinterested in the "record profits" narrative, of course if the base cost goes up, and margin % stays the same you will have "record profits"
This is an emotional argument targeted the same crowd (63% of the US Population by recent survey) that believes stimulus checks should be used to fight inflation
I want to see what the profit margin % is, not what the raw profit is. I have yet to see anyone show a "record increase in profit margin" only headlines in currency not percentage
This is showing extreme business ignorance, I am not sure about Tesco, or UK grocers, but in the US the average margin is around 3%, this is one of if not the lowest margin industries. Keeping that margin at 3%, even if raw profits increase is a responsible business model, margin that low can put businesses in terrible places when recessions hit.
To believe grocers to stick to a raw profit number, and not look at margin at all is ridiculous and irresponsible to not only the shareholders of the company but the employee's and customers as well
Your advice is what leads to store closings and food deserts
Society won't gain much if a grocer keeps a steady 3% margin over base cost while capturing the increase in price instead of distributing it as part of salaries as well, don't you agree?
The record profit in figure is important when compared to employees' salaries, if those aren't increasing in proportion (as part of the cost) then the grocer owners are just increasing their wealth while impoverishing their own employees.
Well there are a few factors here, some percentage of the inflation is infact increase wages for workers at the grocer, this is what is keeping the margin the same. Here for example the 2 largest grocers are Kroger and Walmart, both have increased their wages several dollars per hour since 2019.
Further I hear all the time about "food deserts" and what not, The increase raw profit could be used for many things including expanding into those area's and could even make them profitable to service.
Finally they can use the money to expanding their technology, for example Kroger has invested heavily and made many awesome customer service enchantments to their mobile app, web site, and curb side pickup services (I know this because I am a weekly user of the app)
All 3 of these things I consider to be good for society
I'm really surprised you say that, because in my experience all 3 of those have massively gone up in price.
Like I said in my other comment - 4 pints of milk have gone up from 1.10 to 1.55(40% increase), countrylife butter(we buy the 500g pack) could be had for £3, maybe even £2.50 in a deal, now it's £4.25 at both tesco and sainsburys.
Tesco also removed their cheese deal which they had for years, where you could buy any two packs for £3, it went up to £3.50, and now it's £4 for two packs. Literally a 33% increase in less than a year.
I am relatively highly paid and short of shamefully I never really paid much attention to prices when doing a shop (I live by myself, only occasionally have friends or girlfriend staying over so shop was never huge % of my monthly budget)
Recently i've been shopping a few times and when paying i've thought "holy shit _how_ much did X thing cost". Cheese is the big one.
One also noticeable thing is security tags on food items that never had them before, meat, the aforementioned cheese, even some deserts.
Seems like a lot of items are shrinking too. I never drink Lucozade (a sugary drink here) but when I walk past it I notice the bottles are only about 90% filled now.
We are very fortunate that on my salary we can put about £1000 a month into savings in a normal month. But in the last couple of months it's gone down to maybe £500. Partly because my partner is on maternity leave but mostly due to bills and mortgage going up.
I feel hugely sorry for those people who's finances don't have that buffer built in. It must be a scary time when there is almost nothing left to cut and you are still being expected to pay more.
Similar story here. My salary went up by a considerable amount back in December and our ability to save has now gone back to where it was before that raise with no life style or circumstance change.
Lots of people who live mostly pay to pay are very worried.
This is something I keep thinking about. I'm not rich by any means, but way over the national average and if I am starting to get concerned about the cost of things, how the hell can someone on minimum wage cope.
I think this comment makes me sound potentially like an asshole (hate talking about money due to this), I don't mean to make it sound that way, just trying to get across it feels like my purchasing power has been greatly affected.
In a supermarket beverages like Lucozade should have a price tag indicating the price per 100ml so you can compare that irrespective of whether the containers are filled. Most packaged products that make sense to measure in mass or volume units work the same (but the unit required is different for spices than for flour, for vanilla essence versus water, because you don't buy 5 kilos of nutmeg or 10ml of water)
It's more nuanced in the UK too, the headline figure is calculated on a "basket" of goods each of which might change in price individually. I didn't find the exact contents and weightings, but there's an article on it here with a little widget that highlights some of the changes at various points in last ~100 years: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/arti...
I've noticed this for "junk" goods in the US (e.g. candy and chips), but less so for normal groceries (since most things are sold in common sizes, or have distinctive shapes). Is it your impression that shrinkflation is happening uniformly, or is it isolated to particular goods?
I'm starting to see shrinkflation happen with staples such as flour and sugar. Have definitely noticed it now that we're preparing for the holiday bake. The price of butter has remained remarkably stable here in the States. Spices are also getting more expensive. The name brand spices have always been expensive, but now even the store brand spices are soaring in cost.
That's interesting -- in my part of the US flour and sugar have been pretty consistent, but butter is much more expensive (like $6-7/lb) when it isn't on sale.
I'm starting to see 3.5 lb bags of flour showing up. By no means universal, but I'm starting to see them and I've never seen them before. I have family in all different areas of the country and we're seeing dramatic differences in food costs between regions that we've never seen before. But it's not across the board. Like you say, butter has gotten quite expensive where you are - but it hasn't here.
That’s just one way of masking it. Here in Poland someone leaked a conversation with a premium dog food producer who admitted adding some dubious stuff into their food to maintain current price. I just found out had some cans in my storage (this thing lasts for years) and notice the aroma and texture difference to current units is extremely obvious.
For a while now food has seemed to be getting more expensive very quickly so this isn’t a surprise. It’s very easy to spend £50 on just a bag or two of groceries (albeit buying some fancy stuff).
Cheaper items have gone up a lot. They are still cheap in absolute terms (55p for six pitta breads) but the price increase is very difficult for people on the breadline.
The UK’s inflation problem is compounded by the fact that wages have stagnated for over a decade now. Salaries are really quite low. Only 15% of income tax payers are on the higher rate (over £50k). That was sort of manageable during the period of low interest rates but I really don’t know what people are going to do now.
The cheapest of something has become much more expensive, whereas the middle range has only gone up a little.
e.g. Aldi:
250g cheapest butter was £1.45 now £1.95
250g premium butter was £1.95 now £2.10
That's an 8% increase for me because I always bought the nice stuff anyway and I continue to but it's a 35% increase for someone who was already buying the cheapest item.
One tiny example I was frustrated by recently... soy sauce. You used to be able to get light / dark / reduced salt / premium versions of soy sauce in most supermarkets.
Recently I had a couple of weeks where I couldn't find any at all, and now it's down to just a single brand of supermarket own dark soy sauce.
I'm a bit of a food/cooking nut so since covid supply issues I now buy anything I'm not willing to substitute in bulk from reliable outlets (usually ethnic shops) and rely on supermarkets only for basic perishable 'English food'- vegetables, meat, dairy. Though even those items are in poor supply sometimes.
It looks like stuff that has higher margins go up less. With higher margins, sellers can still profit the same price per unit (even if that profit has less purchasing power) than items with smaller margins.
Prices are a bit higher but it varies from item to item. Nothing seems that out of reach mind. I think my weekly food shop has gone from £50-£55 to £65-£70.
Lots of scaremongering, lots of panicked news article but nothing tangible i've seen on the ground.
Grocery prices have been going up a lot, and for a lot longer than just the last year. "Shrinkflation" is a thing too. I just bought a packet of hobnobs which has to be 2/3rds the size of a normal packet from a year or two ago.
Thanks for asking this question. For what it's worth, the general sentiment in the answers feels very similar to what I'm seeing in the US, where my grocery bill has gone up about 40% in the past year.
My general hypothesis has been that since grocery costs make up a relatively small percentage of overall budgets in affluent urban areas that stores have more room to increase prices. I'm curious what is happening in more urban areas where people are on tighter in budgets to begin with.
From an anecdotal perspective it's just applying more and more pressure on people I know. Food bank usage is sky rocketing and I'm seeing a lot more requests from them as a result as they're struggling to keep up with the demand.
The UK has heavy class divides and things are getting really difficult for those in the working class. For those in the middle class they're not struggling with food or fuel, but the ability to build wealth and invest is starting to erode.
I guess that sunflower was more like 7.99 few months ago, and practically impossible to find (and its equivalents like colza or grape seed).
We shop across the border in France and I see similar trends. Since family of 4 and tons of kid-related items, before we practically never hit 200 euro mark for big weekly shopping unless adding something special 1-off. Now we are more like 250 euro and even higher, and I keep putting the +-same things in the shopping cart.
Electricity is much more expensive than its ever been. 60-odd percent comes from gas turbines. That drives the raw cost of everything up.
It's definitely gradual, and many things with margins are losing profits rather than just doubling in price, but if this effect is sustained, many businesses just won't be able to afford to stay open.
If it's a cold winter, many will suffer in cold. We turned our heating on for a few hours a couple of days ago and it cost £7 (for mere hours). We can afford this, many can't.
Our mortgage repayments doubled recently. We now pay less into savings. It's fixed for another 2 years but who knows where we'll be after that.
So yeah, the worst is yet to come and I think we all know it.
I am a lead frontend engineer. I am in the very high salary percentile, probably top %2-3, excluding CEOs. I can barely save.
I don't have a car. I don't have any expensive hobbies, gym subscription or anything.
I am paying %50 of my salary to rent & bills in Zone 1, Angel, Islington. I keep looking for alternatives, but rents have gone further up since I got in 6 months ago.
Maybe I don't understand the UK real estate market, but how in the world is this possible? I live in one of the most expensive retail and commercial areas in the world (NYC), and my rent is maybe 30% of my post-tax take-home.
UK salaries are low. Even lots of lead/senior devs working in London are on less than £100k. That’s high for the UK but not much compared to what junior devs can get in the Bay Area.
And if someone lives in Zone 1 or even in the city directly, then those £100k devs are competing for rent with £200k+ bankers and financiers, so yes, I can absolutely believe that.
Others have already commented on food and energy, but the one that stood out to me was regional holiday accommodation - weekend getaway stuff. Feels substantially up from prior years - way about the 14.7% quoted. Almost like covid reset it to far higher.
A noticeable feature of the Sainsbury’s website is that weights encoded in the URLs don’t change with the weight in the webpage as shrinkflation happens. So the following link to 115g of ham still has 125g in the link itself:
In the UK and a bit anal about expenses (track every expense for the last 10 years).
I can only speak about groceries. I paid around £200 more per month for the same basket, which is consistent with the claim. Eating out is definitely more expensive and probably around 20-25%.
Everything else, I'm a bit of an outlier, I rent but luckily pay the same for a long time, actively using less heating, not a big goods consumer in general.
It's painful. Within my late 20's age group, the number one topic of conversation seems to be a lack money. It's impossible to get my group of friends together at the moment as everyone is scraping the barrel. Most are starting to accrue pretty large amounts of debt to get by. I've spent the last 6 months cutting my subscriptions, nights out, shopping, and I'm still spending more than my take-home most months.
---
To give some context, here's a completely honest account of my last months spending which was only a little above average the last 9 months:
£926 in bills (£750 rent; the rest in assorted council tax, utilities, phone, insurance etc).
- Up £70 YoY, driven by gas/electric.
£270 in groceries.
- Up £100.
£280 in entertainment (rugby/gig/festival tickets, books, a day out to a local town, trip to the movies, spotify and audible).
- Up about £50, although this is highly variable month to month.
£400 on eating out (birthday meal, pub with friends, date night, a couple of takeaways, and one regretfully expensive night out).
- Way up, about £150, driven by the cost of drinking and eating out. This is the one I'm looking to drive down the most.
£180 in transport (fuel and public transport).
- About the same, but only because I avoid driving anywhere as much as possible. If I still drove to work, this would be double. My car needs repairs but I'm putting it off.
£130 on shopping (clothes, birthday gifts).
- The same, due to a reduction in spending. I shop almost entirely second-hand now.
All in all, I'm spending about £400 a month more, while doing and purchasing much less.
--
I earn ~40k a year as an electronics engineer. My take home after tax (12% earnings taken for national insurance, 20% for income), student loan (9% for undergrad, and another 6% for post-grad), and 10% for stock EPP (which I can sell every 6 months), was £1850 (this shifts around with bonuses). I used to socialise 3-4 days a week and managed to put away £200 a month minimum. Now I socialise once every 10 days roughly, and I'm down the same. Don't get me wrong, I'm well aware there's still things I can do to squirrel some money away, but I'm trying to hold on to some sort of QoL together.
The median income for 22-29 y/o group in the UK is £24,600. I'm privileged enough to only have to worry about losing my social life. I dread to think how badly things are going for everyone else.
It's as bad or better. Which shouldn't be the case because Europe is far more dependent on Russian oil/gas than the UK ever was.
Which does indicate a significant bit of the problem in the UK is the B word, but we don't talk about that anymore, now that we've been assured it's been done.
Hard to say. I’m in Ireland (Republic), which while technically part of the EU is economically close to the UK.
Prices have gone up a lot.
Just as an example, I used to get skyr (type of thick yoghurt) for €1.99/kg at Aldi in January. Now it’s going for €2.79/kg and it seems like it’ll just keep getting more expensive.
My grocery costs gave easily gone up around €100/month
It's (likely) exacerbated by the pound tanking, the Eurozone is similarly affected. I visited Switzerland recently after a year off and the price hikes are there too, but not as noticeable as in other countries in Europe.
It's not UK, but I get the feeling this isn't so much inflation as opportunistic behavior. See grocery corporation CEOs bragging about price gouging under the cover of "inflation" during investor calls, https://pluralistic.net/2022/10/17/united-states-vs-vons/#pr...
>As Kroger CEO told his shareholders: "a little bit of inflation is always good in our business" because it lets him raise prices and "customers don’t overly react."
This is precisely why I have cut back to only staple ingredients. I refuse to give them the premiums they've artificially put on top of actual inflation because there are is so little competition in the market. I've learned to cook a lot better as well. I just don't participate any more in name brands/movies/etc I wait on the cheap version of stuff now and find that I'm not really missing out on anything.
The problem is that they get you in the long run when inflation erodes away the money you would have saved. There needs to be some sort of stable way of transferring that value into a medium that can retain it. I don't think anything exists that can satisfy this requirement. Everything i've seen (Bitcoin, gold, etc.) has not cut the mustard.
Inflation is prices rising and people willing to pay them. It isn't gouging for if Mars wants to raise the price of a snickers 50 cents when their costs only rise 25 cents. That is them adjusting to the market. If money wasn't sloshing around people would go. I don't need a 50 cent more snickers bar or I will by a cheaper substitute good (pork instead of steak) and prices wouldn't rise as much. But the consumer is willing to pay more hence the price goes up.
>It's not UK, but I get the feeling this isn't so much inflation as opportunistic behavior
It's not "opportunistic behavior", it's basic market dynamics when supply outstrips demand. Here's a simplistic model: if the world oil supply was halved because all the oil wells in the middle east blew up, then any price increases will be pure profit for every other oil producer. It tempting to say that oil producers shouldn't raise their prices because their costs haven't increased, but not increasing prices lead to other problems. If oil supply was halved and demand remained the same, then there's going to be oil shortages. We tried that in the 70s (eg. oil price caps) and that led to massive lines at the pump. Today we have floating oil prices and gas lines basically never happen, short of in natural disasters.
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[ 3.0 ms ] story [ 153 ms ] threadhttps://www.kantar.com/uki/inspiration/fmcg/2022-wp-uk-groce...
Well, the lamb now costs £5.19/kg. [1] 'Dem pleasant pastures be getting expensive.
[1] https://ahdb.org.uk/gb-deadweight-sheep-prices
Expensive, sure, but not 100 times as expensive.
https://www.tesco.com/groceries/en-GB/shop/fresh-food/fresh-...
Tesco will include butchering, transport and resale.
Lots of farmers will sell you a lamb broken down if you make enquiries and its slightly cheaper.
Maybe this was a joke that I didn't get?
EDIT: You edited your post after I made this, but like a fiver a kilo for lamb sounds pretty doable to me.
That's wholesale/supplier pricing, not supermarket/butcher.
No idea what GP's point was though so I'm not commenting on/defending anything else!
Unfortunately once my wife and kids realised what type of deer is was (generally the little muntjac deer) they all went off it.
Inflation unexpectedly dipped to 9.9% in August, down from 10.1% in July, on the back of a fuel price decline.
Increasing food, transport and energy prices were the biggest contributing factors to inflation, the ONS said. Food was up 14.6% year-on-year, transport was up 10.9% compared to last year, while the price of furniture and household goods rose 10.8%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/19/uk-inflation-rate-rises-to-1...
There's a game to played here on which country receives most of the pain, but everyone loses in absolute terms.
>Questions are now being raised over how long Truss will remain in office
I would bet that the majority of spending by nearly all people in the supermarket is discretionary spending.
It isn't the bread veg and meat that push the bill up for me, it's the alcohol, Sweet things etc, and that's ignoring all the stuff on the centre isles.
So I don't really agree with this statement at all
edit:
I am wrong, posted below, but I'll put it here too.
the uk spends £117.97 on food and non alcoholic drinks annually https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
£27 billion on alcohol consumption in the home https://www.statista.com/statistics/281935/spending-on-alcoh...
savory snacks seem to be around £3bn, sweets around £6bn, and the soft drink market around £10bn
So it doesn't really get close, no matter how you slice it.
total supermarket spend is £188bn
https://www.ibisworld.com/united-kingdom/market-size/superma...
So actual food still makes up the majority of sales, which im surprised by.
the uk spends £117.97 on food and non alcoholic drinks annually https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
£27 billion on alcohol consumption in the home https://www.statista.com/statistics/281935/spending-on-alcoh...
savory snacks seem to be around £3bn, sweets around £6bn, and the soft drink market around £10bn
So it doesn't really get close, no matter how you slice it.
total supermarket spend is £188bn
https://www.ibisworld.com/united-kingdom/market-size/superma...
So actual food still makes up the majority of sales, which im surprised by.
[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/errolschweizer/2022/09/12/how-p...
If you look at a typical trolley I'd wager that most people/families could cut its price quite a bit and still be fed satisfactorily if they absolutely had no choice.
The problem with this line of thinking is that it makes people less economically productive. Having my wife stay home and do home-made everything would certainly reduce our total grocery spending, but she's quite likely to be less economically productive spending her full time doing household work.
given that we're also getting rid of our dishwasher, washing machine, fridge, and everything else. if my wife would just roll up her sleves we could save even more money!
youre right about alcohol / sweet spending, its still a significant proportion that is discretionary though.
"The largest upward effects came from bread and cereals, meat products, and milk, cheese and eggs, where prices rose between August and September 2022, but fell between the same two months in 2021."
"Alcohol and Tobacco" has gone up 5.6%.
Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bull...
that doesn't seem to me specific to the 14.6% figure.
supermarket spending != food and drink spending != food and non alcoholic beverage spending.
At least for the US, it's a lot more nuanced than "inflation is X%" -- certain things are consistently more expensive, others are more variable, and others yet are cheaper/the same price. I'd like to understand if it's the same there.
Gas is already cheap in the US, but it's actually cheaper in real terms (adjusting for inflation and engine efficiency) to drive in 2022 than it was in ~2005. Is it the same there?
As an example - I found in my google photos this picture from 2011, literally 11 years ago, and it shows petrol at 134p/litre, which is actually more expensive than it has been for few years(other than this year, obviously). Definitely 2016-2020 petrol has been around 120p/litre, with 130p/litre for premium(which I remember well because I had a sports car for those 4 years and remember thinking that 130p/litre is expensive for fuel).
https://imgur.com/a/JqT15rm
To give a simplest example - 4 pint milk bottle used to be £1.10 earlier in the year, now it's £1.55(and that's a cheap milk, nothing fancy) - that's an increase of 40% on milk alone.
Oh and to add to this - energy is bonkers. Last year I used to pay 3p/kWh for gas(the heating kind, not petrol), and 12p/kWh for electricity. Now it's 10p/kWh for gas and 34p/kWh for electricity with much higher standing charge(daily payment for being connected to the network) for both. In effect our energy bill tripled from £100 a month to £300 a month.
Anecdotes like this (ie. "government says inflation is x% but my grocery bill went up y%", x < y) seems to be very popular. Why is there a discrepancy? Is there some sort of methodological issue on the part of government agencies (or in this case, private data providers)? Or is there some sort of sampling/recall bias on the part of internet commenters?
As someone pointed to in this thread, half of the inflation is attributed to profit increases for the grocer. Thus, it stands to reason that groceries that aren't packing on the profits would see lower price increases. So where you're shopping matters a lot.
This is an emotional argument targeted the same crowd (63% of the US Population by recent survey) that believes stimulus checks should be used to fight inflation
I want to see what the profit margin % is, not what the raw profit is. I have yet to see anyone show a "record increase in profit margin" only headlines in currency not percentage
Yes, we know this. But we disagree it is a good thing to maintain a constant percentage margin.
Tesco’s (etc.) isn't innovating. It's being rewarded solely for putting its prices up significantly.
Ordinary people are being forced and asked to afford less. Corporates could also show some restraint.
To believe grocers to stick to a raw profit number, and not look at margin at all is ridiculous and irresponsible to not only the shareholders of the company but the employee's and customers as well
Your advice is what leads to store closings and food deserts
The record profit in figure is important when compared to employees' salaries, if those aren't increasing in proportion (as part of the cost) then the grocer owners are just increasing their wealth while impoverishing their own employees.
Further I hear all the time about "food deserts" and what not, The increase raw profit could be used for many things including expanding into those area's and could even make them profitable to service.
Finally they can use the money to expanding their technology, for example Kroger has invested heavily and made many awesome customer service enchantments to their mobile app, web site, and curb side pickup services (I know this because I am a weekly user of the app)
All 3 of these things I consider to be good for society
From memory, in my local supermarket for example,
tea is still about 0.90/1.00 a box.
Freshly squeezed orange juice has gone from about 1.60 to 2.20
Butter has gone up a lot (don't have numbers)
chocolate biscuits not much increase (why not?)
milk prices are higher for organic, not so much increase on non-organic.
Fruit and vegetables a bit higher maybe, but not that noticeable as yet.
I can't think of much that's gone down, but it might have done.
edit: found and correct juice price 2.30->2.20
Was pretty stable (over years) at:
Now: and that's where it's settled, was pretty volatile (up to a pound or so higher) for a while.What's curious to me is that milk & cheese don't seem to have gone up so much nor been so volatile.
Like I said in my other comment - 4 pints of milk have gone up from 1.10 to 1.55(40% increase), countrylife butter(we buy the 500g pack) could be had for £3, maybe even £2.50 in a deal, now it's £4.25 at both tesco and sainsburys.
Tesco also removed their cheese deal which they had for years, where you could buy any two packs for £3, it went up to £3.50, and now it's £4 for two packs. Literally a 33% increase in less than a year.
I'm sure it must cost more than that to have an in-store bakery constantly churning them out.
That's still a 13% rise, even if it's not as dramatic as the near 50% on things like butter.
Recently i've been shopping a few times and when paying i've thought "holy shit _how_ much did X thing cost". Cheese is the big one.
One also noticeable thing is security tags on food items that never had them before, meat, the aforementioned cheese, even some deserts.
Seems like a lot of items are shrinking too. I never drink Lucozade (a sugary drink here) but when I walk past it I notice the bottles are only about 90% filled now.
I feel hugely sorry for those people who's finances don't have that buffer built in. It must be a scary time when there is almost nothing left to cut and you are still being expected to pay more.
Lots of people who live mostly pay to pay are very worried.
I think this comment makes me sound potentially like an asshole (hate talking about money due to this), I don't mean to make it sound that way, just trying to get across it feels like my purchasing power has been greatly affected.
Coffee is now 10.5 oz instead of 12-16.
Even cereal has shrunk
Cheaper items have gone up a lot. They are still cheap in absolute terms (55p for six pitta breads) but the price increase is very difficult for people on the breadline.
The UK’s inflation problem is compounded by the fact that wages have stagnated for over a decade now. Salaries are really quite low. Only 15% of income tax payers are on the higher rate (over £50k). That was sort of manageable during the period of low interest rates but I really don’t know what people are going to do now.
Petrol and energy are WAY more expensive.
Everything is just more pricey at the moment.
e.g. Aldi:
250g cheapest butter was £1.45 now £1.95
250g premium butter was £1.95 now £2.10
That's an 8% increase for me because I always bought the nice stuff anyway and I continue to but it's a 35% increase for someone who was already buying the cheapest item.
One tiny example I was frustrated by recently... soy sauce. You used to be able to get light / dark / reduced salt / premium versions of soy sauce in most supermarkets.
Recently I had a couple of weeks where I couldn't find any at all, and now it's down to just a single brand of supermarket own dark soy sauce.
Lots of scaremongering, lots of panicked news article but nothing tangible i've seen on the ground.
My general hypothesis has been that since grocery costs make up a relatively small percentage of overall budgets in affluent urban areas that stores have more room to increase prices. I'm curious what is happening in more urban areas where people are on tighter in budgets to begin with.
The UK has heavy class divides and things are getting really difficult for those in the working class. For those in the middle class they're not struggling with food or fuel, but the ability to build wealth and invest is starting to erode.
Barilla pasta, 500g: 0.75 -> 1.49
Basmati rice, 1kg: 1.99 -> 2.69
White sugar, 1kg: 0.45 -> 1.35
White flour, 1kg: 0.39 -> 0.55
Sunflower oil, 1 liter: 0.99 -> 3.99
We shop across the border in France and I see similar trends. Since family of 4 and tons of kid-related items, before we practically never hit 200 euro mark for big weekly shopping unless adding something special 1-off. Now we are more like 250 euro and even higher, and I keep putting the +-same things in the shopping cart.
It's definitely gradual, and many things with margins are losing profits rather than just doubling in price, but if this effect is sustained, many businesses just won't be able to afford to stay open.
If it's a cold winter, many will suffer in cold. We turned our heating on for a few hours a couple of days ago and it cost £7 (for mere hours). We can afford this, many can't.
Our mortgage repayments doubled recently. We now pay less into savings. It's fixed for another 2 years but who knows where we'll be after that.
So yeah, the worst is yet to come and I think we all know it.
I don't have a car. I don't have any expensive hobbies, gym subscription or anything.
I am paying %50 of my salary to rent & bills in Zone 1, Angel, Islington. I keep looking for alternatives, but rents have gone further up since I got in 6 months ago.
If I wanted a nice newly built (newer than 15 years) place, I would have to pay around %70-90 of my salary.
London housing market is ,famously, a joke, literally. There is a whole trend of Tiktok videos making fun of housing ads in London.
\www.sainsburys.co.uk/gol-ui/product/sainsburys-british-cooked-ham-125g
https://www.sainsburys.co.uk/gol-ui/product/sainsburys-briti...
I can only speak about groceries. I paid around £200 more per month for the same basket, which is consistent with the claim. Eating out is definitely more expensive and probably around 20-25%.
Everything else, I'm a bit of an outlier, I rent but luckily pay the same for a long time, actively using less heating, not a big goods consumer in general.
---
To give some context, here's a completely honest account of my last months spending which was only a little above average the last 9 months:
£926 in bills (£750 rent; the rest in assorted council tax, utilities, phone, insurance etc).
- Up £70 YoY, driven by gas/electric.
£270 in groceries.
- Up £100.
£280 in entertainment (rugby/gig/festival tickets, books, a day out to a local town, trip to the movies, spotify and audible).
- Up about £50, although this is highly variable month to month.
£400 on eating out (birthday meal, pub with friends, date night, a couple of takeaways, and one regretfully expensive night out).
- Way up, about £150, driven by the cost of drinking and eating out. This is the one I'm looking to drive down the most.
£180 in transport (fuel and public transport).
- About the same, but only because I avoid driving anywhere as much as possible. If I still drove to work, this would be double. My car needs repairs but I'm putting it off.
£130 on shopping (clothes, birthday gifts).
- The same, due to a reduction in spending. I shop almost entirely second-hand now.
All in all, I'm spending about £400 a month more, while doing and purchasing much less.
--
I earn ~40k a year as an electronics engineer. My take home after tax (12% earnings taken for national insurance, 20% for income), student loan (9% for undergrad, and another 6% for post-grad), and 10% for stock EPP (which I can sell every 6 months), was £1850 (this shifts around with bonuses). I used to socialise 3-4 days a week and managed to put away £200 a month minimum. Now I socialise once every 10 days roughly, and I'm down the same. Don't get me wrong, I'm well aware there's still things I can do to squirrel some money away, but I'm trying to hold on to some sort of QoL together.
The median income for 22-29 y/o group in the UK is £24,600. I'm privileged enough to only have to worry about losing my social life. I dread to think how badly things are going for everyone else.
[0]https://www.iceland.co.uk/p/the-fish-market-cod-fillets-320g... (3 for £10! - I stocked some in the fridge as well!) [1]https://www.iceland.co.uk/p/garden-of-elveden-baby-salad-pot... [2]https://www.iceland.co.uk/p/iceland-button-sprouts-900g/8369... [3]https://www.iceland.co.uk/p/iceland-broccoli-florets-800g/83...
If you cook yourself it's all good.
Our monthly grocery bill is actually less because we switched to Lidl, Tesco and Iceland. We do notice higher energy bills but it's still manageable.
Which does indicate a significant bit of the problem in the UK is the B word, but we don't talk about that anymore, now that we've been assured it's been done.
Prices have gone up a lot.
Just as an example, I used to get skyr (type of thick yoghurt) for €1.99/kg at Aldi in January. Now it’s going for €2.79/kg and it seems like it’ll just keep getting more expensive.
My grocery costs gave easily gone up around €100/month
>As Kroger CEO told his shareholders: "a little bit of inflation is always good in our business" because it lets him raise prices and "customers don’t overly react."
Over 50% of the rise in prices for groceries during the pandemic are from corporate profits. Raises in input costs (38%) and labor (7%) made up most of the rest. When the price raise is 50% increased profit during a time where a large fraction cannot afford enough to eat this is price gouging. It is extremely clear. https://www.salon.com/2022/10/19/katie-porter-pulls-out-char... https://porter.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID...
It's not "opportunistic behavior", it's basic market dynamics when supply outstrips demand. Here's a simplistic model: if the world oil supply was halved because all the oil wells in the middle east blew up, then any price increases will be pure profit for every other oil producer. It tempting to say that oil producers shouldn't raise their prices because their costs haven't increased, but not increasing prices lead to other problems. If oil supply was halved and demand remained the same, then there's going to be oil shortages. We tried that in the 70s (eg. oil price caps) and that led to massive lines at the pump. Today we have floating oil prices and gas lines basically never happen, short of in natural disasters.
I assume that it's a combination of the war in Ukraine and other factors contributing to inflation.
And that people will respond saying the war has nothing to do with it. But I think they are in denial.