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What I don't get about all of this is that the hard, expensive part of nuclear power is building + certifying the plants. Once they're up and running, they produce essentially free, zero-carbon electricity, safely and reliably.

So why turn off the working ones if you're anti-nuke? Why not just stop new construction? They're going to burn coal instead, which releases vastly more radioactive material.

The “safe and reliable” part was wrecked in the general public’s perception by Chernobyl and Fukushima. Germany’s decision to close all their existing plants came shortly after the latter disaster.

Yes, Fukushima was nowhere near as catastrophic as Chernobyl, but it was very effective in creating the impression that this kind of thing will keep happening; that power plants aren’t safe even in an impeccably diligent culture like Japan (as it’s perceived in the West); that the tireless anti-nuclear campaigning of the preceding decades had been right all along. That’s the kind of public mood that politicians can ill afford to ignore.

> That’s the kind of public mood that politicians can ill afford to ignore.

But is safety really the primary concern amongst the public? I mean there are perfectly valid economic arguments against developing nuclear power, especially nowadays. Of course stopping the expansion of nuclear power back in the 70/80s was a huge tragedy. If we stayed on the same trajectory as throughout the 60s well.. climate change would probably be viewed as a more or less solved (or at least an actually solvable) issue today.

And honestly, if nuclear energy was financially viable would it be hard to change this quite irrational 'mood'? I mean in the EU alone pollution form Coal plants causes about twice as much premature deaths as the Chernobyl disaster did over a 20 year period (according to the worst estimates, it would be about 8 times as much if we use the IAEA figures).

Nuclear is objectively one of the safest sources of energy. If we exclude Chernobyl (we should since it was a direct outcome of a multistage failure which is only possible in idiocratic states like the USSR) it's about a hundredfold safer than natural gas which is about 10 less harmful (when measuring in human lives) than coal for an equivalent amount of power generated.

> The “safe and reliable” part was wrecked in the general public’s perception

Unless we believe that the general public is completely mathematically illiterate (i.e. most people couldn't pass a basic 2nd grade level math test) this shouldn't be too hard to change with enough political will.

Nuclear energy as-is is very expensive and the cost trajectory in the past wasn't great either (i.e., not dropping fast).
Yes if you didn't include externalities it was relatively quite expensive compared to fossil fuels. Very competitive or even significantly cheaper if you did though.

Of course climate change and pollution weren't huge concerns back in the 80s especially. Especially for the so-called "green" parties in Germany and other countries...

Also very expensive compared to solar or wind.
Yes. It is now. I'm mainly talking about the 80s and 90s.
Btw., why are you suggesting pollution was not a topic for the greens in Germany in the 1980s? I'd agree they had others topics, too, but not being concerned about pollution?
I suppose it was. But well clearly halting nuclear expansion was a higher priority so even if they didn't say it directly, they implicitly support increased reliance on fossil fuels which is what matters.
If you believe only climate related pollution matters - yes.
No, not at all. Why would you even say that?

Actually the opposite at least where coal is concerned per kWh it emits "only" 2x more CO2 but (according to estimates) causes 10x more deaths than natural gas.

20-30 thousand people die every year due to pollution from coal power plants in the EU alone. That's basically 2 to 8 "free" Chernobyls every single year...

Because you seem to have not looked at the policies of the German greens in the 1980s and the pollution landscape of the time.
The „Energiewende“ must be understood as a de-growth, anti-prosperity ideology. If it was about co2, they wouldn’t do this. We sinned, thus we must atone by consuming less, achieving less, being less. The usual high-low alliance that is used as a political technology to acquire power.
Whatever happens in terms of reduction of energy use, the electricity usage itself will grow in the future, that's a given. All the petrol use must be converted, even with a reduction.

Thus, countries should plan for an increase of electricity usage to be ready.

Exactly. We need massively more electricity in the future than we consume now, we should be expanding generation capacity, not reduce it.
If we end up less reliant on Saudi oil and less at risk of a hellscape future, then I would be fine if RWE / Vattenfall / EON who profiteered in the past get replaced.
Working nuclear plants have refueling, maintenance and staffing costs.

These are small compared with the initial outlay, and with fossil fuel plants (where the fuel costs dominate) but not small compared with building new renewables from scratch.

The Lazard PDF currently linked from this site has numbers on this.

“The expensive part of nuclear power is building + certifying”

Unfortunately this is not the case, decommissioning for example is extremely expensive though can be deferred for years. Nuclear requires a large and expensive workforce, expensive maintenance, extremely expensive fuel possessing before it’s us fuel in a nuclear reactor, and insurance that’s so expensive no private company is able to offer it.

Construction being the largest cost is really in reference to financing + construction + land + regulatory hurdles + any R&D costs. The direct construction costs run about twice what staffing does over the plant’s lifespan. However, because profits are so low and construction takes so long the loans must extend over decades which greatly inflates the cost of construction. On the flip side delaying decommissioning means the money set aside can grow before you’re forced to spend it.

As strange as it sounds lowering operating costs would actually reduce “construction” costs as you could pay back the loans sooner.

> Unfortunately this is not the case, decommissioning for example is extremely expensive though can be deferred for years.

Well then closing plants makes even less sence, youll have to decomission them sooner

I wouldn’t be sure of that.

As I understand it, nuclear power plants are limited by corrosion so the end date for decommissioning is likely based on the power plants construction date not its final date of operation. There’s regulations that lost decommissioning must finish within 60 years of shutdown, but that stuff is often flexible in practice where physics isn’t.

Who said that people are rational? Especially in green party?
The decision was made [0] by the CDU (government Merkel II) in 2011 right after Fukushima, not by the Green Party. Reversing it would come at a great cost [1]. Of course the Green Party also doesn‘t want to, but that boat sailed long ago.

And rational, for Germany which does:

- not have nuclear weapons

- has far cheaper renewables in cost per kwh

- is densely populated with no viable far away place to store the stuff

means to quit nuclear.

In the end the debate depends on whether externalities are internalized or not. If they are internalized, renewable energy wins hands down [2].

—-

[0] https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atom-Moratorium

[1] Germany got sued previously for undoing an exit. It‘s predictable this would happen again.

[2] As shown in the report by the scientific service of the German parliament: https://www.bundestag.de/resource/blob/887090/1867659c1d4edc...

> has far cheaper renewables in cost per kwh

Currently yes.

In the 80s and 90s not so much. It's huge a tragedy nuclear expansion stopped back then because nuclear was very cheap if we factor the indirect costs from burning fossil fuels (specifically premature deaths and other healthcare issues due to pollution. We basically get 2 to 8 free Chernobyls every year just by burning coal in the EU alone. Stopping climate change would just have been a free bonus).

Renewables are cheap, until you hit a day without a lot of Sun or wind and you start running your death-inducing coal reactors.
The green party hasn't been in power for the last 16 year. Still, the conservatives didn't change anything about this. Now they're a minority in a coalition. Still, nobody did anything about it.

The fact that some people (especially non-Germans) repeat this blame-show shows where it actually comes from: an misguided Astro-Turf campaign which doesn't care about facts.

They were not in power but heavily supported anti-nuclear. They also could have changed course now since they are in power and are heading all the relevant ministries.

I think it's fair to expect a party with this name to do better for climate change.

I like how you admit in the first sentence that you don't care about the facts regarding the false blame and just blindly continue to do so.

Meanwhile, without them, we wouldn't have almost half of our electricity generated by actually clean energy sources (renewables). They did a lot for climate change, and ignoring those facts in favor of false statements won't make it go away. It just makes those who spread those lies look stupid in the eyes of those who actually know the facts.

The German taxpayer did a lot to push renewable energy for the whole world, and the movement was very much motivated by the Greens. You should thank them and not spit on them.

Two things can be true at once. The Greens may have pushed for renewables and helped in that regard, and they may have made a horrible choice when aggressively campaigning against nuclear energy. The former was possible without the latter, and this thread is definitely about the latter. All I know is that their current energy policy is a disaster and should be criticised, I couldn't care less about whether you think me and the entire world are paid shills for believing that.
You neither proved that what they did was actually horrible nor did you actually stop blaming them, even when they're not to blame for the outcome we see today.

So what is this? Why are you keep doing this?

This thread is a circle jerk fueled by false information created by a right wing influenced Astro-Turf. You swim with them, and you keep on putting more nonsense on top of it. Now their current energy policy is a disaster?? What? I bet you don't even know what their current energy policy actually is. You just whine because nuclear is gone. The result of decisions made and not made by all other relevant parties in Germany.

These plants are all 40 years and older, which means they are EOL or close to it anyway. You could do another costly overhaul and squeeze a few more years out of them, but the bottom line will be same.
Why would a power plant be EOL after 40 years. These are massive capital expenditures and I would expect a planned lifespan of 100-200 years. Having a 40 year designed lifespan on something that takes 10 years to build and 10 to shut off seems really bad.
The expectation when they were planned and built starting 50 years ago was that during their planned lifetime, nuclear power technology would improve significantly and they would naturaly be replaced with modern reactors at the end of their design lifetime. Of course, nobody planned for the Chernobyl disaster and the resulting lack of support for nuclear energy.

Engineering wise, there are a lot of parts of the reactor that I think you have to pick between being able to service and replace the part and having it be useful and safe. So when those parts wear out, you can't really fix them. Or you have to wait so long for it to be safe to service them, that it's not worth it.

Coal and gas plants don't last forever either, but they can generally be rebuilt in place, making the comparison tricky. Coal tends to release all of its radioactive waste into the air, the facility itself doesn't become a hazard to service.

They're actually going to phase out coal completely by 2038.

After 16 years of Merkel breaking renewables, they're being expanded again. An expansion which, in the past helped to establish this technology on this planet.

Edit (since the Astro-Turf downvotes prevent me from answering to even more falsehoods being posted here...): And no, they couldn't have phased out coal completely because NO party wanted to lose voters in those regions where coal is generated. Just have a look at the name and tasks of the commission tasked with the phase out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Growth,_Structur...

I think the argument is that they could have phased out coal 10 years sooner, if they just left alone the nuclear plants they already had
The argument doesn't make any sense since one has nothing to do with the other.

See my edit.

2038 is far enough into the future that anything and its opposite could happen by then.
Sure.

Like a nuclear accident in one of the rotting French reactors for example.

Meanwhile, the expansion of cheap renewable energy which gets better and cheaper continues to happen.

Well they could've have already done that by now if not a decade or two ago if they skipped the period of mass psychosis back in the 80s...
Look to France to see what getting too reliant on Nuclear can do. Germany had a healthy mix with some nuclear and it would have made sense to keep them running until renewables power everything (which they will). But: Nuclear can't be justed bounced around on a whim. Even the Russian war in Ukraine couldn't reverse course because the powerplants weren't getting re-certified by their operators.

The fact is that Germany will build 13 GW of renewables this year, which offsets those last 4 GW of Nuclear somewhat.

No country* can produce its electricity only based on renewables. They are not dispatchable and occupy a lot of land. So you need a base. France decided that the base would be nuclear and Germany decided it would be fossil fuel. Not sure there is clear a cut argument that one choice is better than the other.

As to what happened in France, it is not related to the nuclear technology itself and could have happen to any type of technology. They built all those power plants following the same design at the same time and all failed the same way at the same time. No surprise here.

* Or maybe a country with a very small population and a lot of unused land maybe which is a pretty small category.

It's not even that all the nuclear power plants failed. It was a combination of a choice to defer maintenance due to Covid, and also a choice to stop every power plant to address a new possible fault regardless of whether it impacts the specific power plant or not. The latter is a sensible choice given the zero risk tolerance, but it is nevertheless a choice.
> No country* can produce its electricity only based on renewables

What utter bullshit. Most countries could do so.

> What utter bullshit. Most countries could do so.

Unfortunately when wishes and hard reality meets for a fight, the reality wins.

In this case failure modes of renewable-only policy are not obvious, but this doesn't mean they don't exist. Claiming otherwise is just wishful thinking.

Could explain why it’s “bullshit?”
The person I was responding to qualified with "* Or maybe a country with a very small population and a lot of unused land maybe which is a pretty small category."

But if you actually do the arithmetic, you will find that land constraints are not important for most countries. There's plenty of land for most countries to produce what they need (as long as they don't do something braindead like trying to burn biomass). Put it another way: the value of the energy generated per area of land is much greater than the value produced by other uses of the land, like agriculture or forestry, and no one claims those are infeasible.

I believe this wrong belief about renewables not being able to do the job came from the assumption that large amounts of biofuel would be needed (IIRC MacKay's "Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air" made this mistake). The efficiency of sunlight => fuel from growth of biomass is very low.

I agree land use is not a major consideration here. But what about base load? You cannot guarantee proper weather and we currently don't have anywhere near battery capacity to store energy from renewable sources for a meaningful amount of time. So ultimately yes, you are faced with a choice between hydro, coal/gas and nuclear for that.
Take the mismatch between solar/wind and demand. Take the Fourier transform of this mismatch. It has components at various frequencies. There are various storage technologies that are best for various frequencies: batteries for high frequences (diurnal or faster); maybe thermal storage for intermediate frequencies (days to weeks); maybe hydrogen for low frequencies (months, yearly, or even longer).

If you optimize the system with the right combination of solar/wind (which are typically somewhat anticorrelated, or at least somewhat independent), and various kinds of storage, you can generate an artificial steady output for not that much. See https://model.energy/ for a web site that generates cost optimal (under various cost assumptions and using historical weather data) solutions to this problem in various places.

None of these storage technologies are currently being used at scale. Not a single country is relying on batteries or hydrogen to solve the problem I mentioned above.
Ah, the good old "if it hasn't happened yet, it can't ever happen" argument. Priceless.

Remember, we're talking about a claim that renewables are fundamentally blocked from providing the power for the grid in most countries. If you exclude the possibility of additional foreseeable technological development, then nuclear also fails, since existing commercial reactors very quickly exhaust the available economical uranium if they are asked to power the world.

Your statement about uranium is incorrect for a couple of reasons, but that's beside the point. You're asking us to take a leap of faith and believe in experimental technologies that have not been proven to work at scale at all. I'm not denying they might work one day, and I'm all for investing in them to see if they do. But in the meantime, hundreds of thousands of people will die due to switching to coal reactors. This is a concrete fact that is happening today. We have a safe energy source in nuclear, and we should make use of it to avoid these real, measurable, tangible consequences.
CANDU reactors may be an exception, since they can operate with a conversion ratio of nearly 1 (about 0.9, IIRC, which will extend the uranium concentration by an order of magnitude). But breeders are not currently commercial reactors -- there have been prototypes, but they are not commercial. Nor is seawater uranium extraction commercially demonstrated (it's not even ready for that; the resins have too short a lifespan, for one thing).
So you’re saying we can expect batteries to scale?
Yes. Are you saying all the thousands of possible battery chemistries, and all the non-battery storage technologies, will fail? This is what the nuclear stans are saying. Of course speculative (or previously failed) nuclear technologies are sold as sure things.
Countries with latitude like California (or geography like Austria) could, countries with latitude and geography like Germany could not.
High latitude countries are the most difficult case, but even there it's possible, with a combination of wind and solar, and hydrogen for seasonal leveling. Germany has plenty of salt formations for hydrogen storage. Places a bit to the east (like Poland) with less wind will have an even harder time.

Granted, Germany will be at a competitive disadvantage vs. countries at lower latitude that won't need as much storage. But that's a separate issue. It could mean they won't need as much energy for industry, since their industry will move elsewhere.

Yes, chemical storage is likely the only reasonable way (outside nuclear). Although i would bet more on methane/co2 closed cycle, or ammonia, than on hydrogen. But these are not proven technologies at the grid scale.
Storage of hydrogen involves components that are all proven. It's just a matter of putting them together. This is the simplest and surest kind of innovation.
Renewables won't power everything, bulk electricity prices are already becoming zero across Germany when the weather for renewables is good. Once this is widespread, further subsidies will be required for additional renewable generation.

The current renewable build out across Europe so far tackled the easiest problem - replacement of other sources of electricity during times when the Sun is shining and the wind is blowing. Going the other ~70% of time will be much harder.

Provide cheap reliable energy that everyone gets so used to that they milk it several times over?
Provide an a large set of union jobs for Masters+ engineers? Result in electric car adoption curve like Norway but without the taxes?

Result in massive exports to countries like Germany that aren't responsible with their electricity production?

> The fact is that Germany will build 13 GW of renewables this year, which offsets those last 4 GW of Nuclear somewhat.

Another fact is that Germany was producing over 36% of its energy using coal plants in Q3 last year. (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2022/12/PE22_518_433.html#:...)

That is 207 GW. Which gives some perspective about how far away GE is from completely relying on renewable energy, this 13 GW next year is very little.

4 GW from nuclear energy is also not much, but it still is a lot cleaner than burning coal.

There absolutly is a lot of work ahead, but the discussion about keeping nuclear needs to be put into perspective.

When we got 207 GW of coal why are we talking about those 4 GW of Nuclear at all?

Can you explain a bit about how renewables will power everything?
Just look at the trajectories: the whole world is building renewables on an ever increasing scale which will replace fossil fuels bit by bit.

By keeping the existing Natural gas plants available the world will have sufficient peak and compensation capacity until improvements to the grid and batteries make 100% renewables viable.

> Look to France to see what getting too reliant on Nuclear can do

We're good: https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/FR

The issues we had this winter would not have occurred if the nuclear park hadn't been ignored by our politicians for 20 years.

You can however look at Germany for the impact of a day with no sun and no wind.

> What I don't get about all of this is that the hard, expensive part of nuclear power is building + certifying the plants.

Not really. The hard part is ensuring that nuclear can be safe throughout it's service life. This is what leads to construction process to be extremely expensive, and certification is just an umbrella term that means "checking if the plant doesn't exhibit any of the risks involving pre established problems and disaster scenarios by going through a number of checks."

> This is what leads to construction process to be extremely expensive

That and the fact that almost all nuclear plants tend to be one-off projects nowadays unlike in the 60s and 70s (and of the plants built in the west back then are still at least 100 times "safer" than the coals plants that are currently operated when measured in the number of deaths caused, of course premature deaths due to unnecessary pollution seem to be very cheap politically..).

Germany shutting down nuclear is so sad to see. Next step is de-industrialization and irrelevance on world stage.
Germany’s recent reliance on Russian oil also paved the way for Putin to invade Ukraine, as both left (Obama) and right (Trump) warned Germany would happen.
Exactly. And now they don’t have cheap and abundant gas (which is better than coal). So their choices are: (1) to pollute more with coal, (2) to de-industrialize, (3) give up on Europe’s security and offer concessions to russia.
Gas itself isn't an issue. Germany does have a lot of shale gas it could tap. Politically very tough at present, though.
Fortunately, Germany was able to completely replace fossil fuels from Russia.
Yes. With high energy prices and burning more coal. Seems like a great deal.

Also oil price is still as low as it is because Russia is allowed to export most of it into third countries which decreases demand for non-Russian oil making it cheaper for Germany/EU.

As long as Russia has access to the global market Germany has not really replaced it even if none of or its products directly ended up in Germany. The only positive aspect is that China/India/etc. get to keep a significant proportion of cash which would go to Russia without the sanctions.

There is no way around it. German foreign policy regarding Russia over the last 2 decades was a huge failure. Of course the same applies to many other countries but Germany is one of the most egregious examples...

How should there be deindustrialization in any sector when nuclear provided between 3 and 6% to the whole mix?

This is a ridiculous claim.

Edit: Source https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Branchen-Unternehmen/Energ...

there will be no growth. No growth => no investment which will lead to stagnation.

Contrast this with what Finland is doing. Finland is going to be one of the leading European nations in 20 years.

Why should there be no growth? Do you have ANY facts on that because the facts out there, especially the already ongoing actual growth on renewables, show the exact opposite?

Where do you even get the Finland story from? It's not like having (finally) a new nuclear reactor running makes them some kind of unicorn. Again: please deliver facts. Sources. Anything besides those preachings from Shellenbergers Astro-Turf.

> provided between 3 and 6% to the whole mix

providES. It used to be around 25% back in 2000 and was still above 10% untill very recently...

> This is a ridiculous claim.

Well... I'm sorry, but you seem to be an expert on those.

> providES

PovidED. You even admit it in the following sentence...

> It used to be around 25% back in 2000

And people where spreading the same fake news and fear back than. As we see today: it was stupid.

> and was still above 10% untill very recently...

No it wasn't. It was 6% max and more like 3% before Ukraine. If you want to correct somebody's statement, bring sources. Here is one for my numbers:

https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Branchen-Unternehmen/Energ...

> Well... I'm sorry, but you seem to be an expert on those.

Compared to what you dropped here, I actually am one. Thank you.

> No it wasn't. It was 6% max and more like 3% before Ukraine. If you want to correct somebody's statement, bring sources. Here is one for my numbers

If you actually looked at data from previous years on the site you posted:

https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Branchen-Unternehmen/Energ...

You would see that nuclear was still 11,8% in 2021.

I mean really? You keep saying stuff like "fake news" and "ridiculous claim" when you can't even be bothered to read the sources you're "citing". Why?

According to your source it was 11,8% in 2021. And well... 2022 hasn't been the best year for German industry (obviously discontinuing nuclear isn't the main factor but the timing was still exceptionally poor/unlucky)
Yes. De-industrialization comes with internal combustion engine ban. Whole Mittelstand makes very special parts for them. With electric vehicles these companies will disappear and living standard in rural areas will fall. 2 decades ago it was completely different country…
Mittelstand is a lot more than parts and machinery related to the car value chain.
And of course, a lot of them are producing parts for electric cars now. Most companies will make the transition successfully and new ones will come up too.
Maybe. I worked for few. One was designing radio prototype and charger for BMW. Another one was manufacturing parts for gearboxes. Third one was designing and manufacturing welding inspection equipment. Another one was designing and manufacturing motors for moving the motors. And last one was building equipment for writing VINs on chassis. So yeah, some of them will survive. But they all are related to car industry. The car industry supply chains are legendarily long despite having big brand sticker on each part.
I recommend the book "Who moved my Cheese" to you.
We have much lower prices for electric power than our neighbour france. They are using mostly nuclear power and have every winter problems, because more power is used that generated. Their reactors are also security risks where you need a book to cover them all. An french three-mile island can happen any time
> and have every winter problems

No they don't. They had a problem this year (and will for probably a few years). For the past decades, France has been a net exporter [0].

> An french three-mile island can happen any time

And a climate crisis is happening now and thousand of people die of respiratory disease every year. The problem is not as simple as you make it sound.

[0] https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/France/electricity_exports/

> We have much lower prices for electric power than our neighbour france

Negative externalities from burning coal are pretty significant*. Of course it depends on the value you place on a human life.

https://www.clientearth.org/latest/latest-updates/news/23-00....

> An french three-mile island can happen any time

As long as the likelihood of that remains substantially low it's not a huge issue. I mean the cost would be almost entirely financial since nobody died because of it (the same obviously can't be said about burning coal or even natural gas...).

Sorry, but that's false: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php... 2022, for households, on average: Germany 0.32€/kwh France 0.20€/Kwh

The spread was much tighter before. Because "renewables"* are unreliable and needed gas plants to make up for when the wind doesn't blow, or the sun doesn't shine, price spiked up after the Ukraine war started. They wouldn't have had this problem with nuclear.

French woes are mainly linked to an aging infrastructure and delayed maintenance due to Covid-19.

Ah, and fun fact, did you know that coal emits more radioactivity per kwh than nuclear? https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coal-ash-is-more-...

The German's foreign affairs office was funding the Henrich Boll fundation, which campaigns in France for renewables along with the anti-nuclear movement? https://archive.is/tSY2w#selection-1357.95-1357.108

The renewable sector is for from being "clean", there are many cases of corruption, influences, and vested interests behind the main proponents of this solution. Gazprom funded antinuclear movements in Europe. Many "fundations", acting for the fossil fuel industry, fund the movements that suit their agenda. https://twitter.com/GeWoessner/status/1498411537144463360

As we saw since the start of 2022, this bet has paid handsomely. EU citizens will have to deal with pollution, increased electricity prices, and wind turbines impossible to recycle.

One could also go on about how China killed the EU solar panels industry by handing out unlimited subsidies. The EU was so slow to act that when they started to tax chinese panels, it was too late already. The funniest thing being that those panels are made using coal power, so it's likely that solar panels from China are worse than their alternatives. Just like electric cars in Eastern Europe emit more CO2 than thermic due to the widespread use of the worst kind of coal there to produce electricity. https://app.electricitymaps.com/map

No it's not. Bavaria's prime minister Söder is a populist and there are state elections this year, he only says that because he knows that the federal government will say no.

In fact check out what he said in 2011:

> In Bavaria, the CSU and FDP cannot agree on a date for the nuclear phase-out. Environment Minister Söder insists on 2022 as the exit year – apparently at any price. The Bavarian Environment Minister Markus Söder (CSU) apparently links the schedule for the nuclear phase-out in Bavaria to his office. At the Council of Ministers meeting on Tuesday, Söder threatened to resign if the Free State decided to phase out nuclear energy at a later date than 2022, reports the "Süddeutsche Zeitung", citing cabinet members.

https://www-welt-de.translate.goog/politik/deutschland/artic...

2011 is a long time ago, his opinion or view point might've changed.
His opinion follows a simple formula: whatever <insert some other party> says, he'll be against it. No matter if it makes sense or not.

It's a quite popular strategy on the right side of the political spectrum in the West.

One thing I’ve learned about politics in the past few decades is that most successful career politicians are weathervanes - ie, they point the direction the (political) wind blows.

This is by design in a democracy. However due to political parties, the pol may simply attach to the most powerful sub group they can use to parley themselves into re-election. So they often double down on their existing stances to keep/grow their core voting bloc.

> This is by design in a democracy.

I'm not sure I agree. It's one thing to claim that opinions changed, but an entirely different thing to feign support for topics you have no intention or expectation to act upon just because it might help you poll better. This last one is diametrically opposed to "the will of the people".

Till December 2021 Söders party was part of the federal government together with the CDU and the FDP. No attempts were made when it still would have been somewhat possible to revert the shutdown. Only after he is no longer part in the Government he "changed his mind".
I mean the Russian invasion sure changed the entire political and energy landscape.
> Bavaria's prime minister Söder is a populist

That's why he was for closing the power plant in the first place. In 2011 was the Fukushima nuclear disaster.

It's an emotional thing. The German Green party founding ideology was built around stopping nuclear power ("Atomkraft nein danke!"). I remember having discussions about the logic back in the 80s with my German compatriots. All these years later the generation that were school kids then are now in power and renewable energy expansion creates the illusion that turning off nuclear power plants now is a good idea. Personally I'd like to see nuclear power be a part of a stable baseline for a few more decades.
It’s also a cultural thing in the west too, a lot of early green movement was built the same way, when half lives were incredibly long. The politics just hasn’t caught up with the science.
What’s the half-life now?
A few human generations. Which is still a problem but not as much as storing waste in a way that a civilisation thousands of years need to understand.
Was not disputing. Just have no idea about it and was wondering. Thanks! Yeah, a few human generations is definitely a huge improvement!
> (...) when half lives were incredibly long.

I'm sorry, did the laws of physics changed in the last couple of decades?

The laws of physics remain the same, however the ability to reduce waste half lives by reusing spent fuel rods has changed, so we don’t need to store waste for ten thousand years.

Maybe do a bare minimum of research before posting a snide comment?

> The laws of physics remain the same,

Yes, this means the half lives are still the same, and the original claim was patently nonsense.

> however the ability to reduce waste half lives by reusing spent fuel rods has changed,

This is also patently false. The advances in nuclear reprocessing only mean that spent fuel rods can be refined and reused, so that the resulting nuclear waste has fewer material with eternal half lives.

Still the shortest half lives of the remaining materials still span thousands of years, which in humanity's time scale means they are eternal.

> so we don’t need to store waste for ten thousand years.

The thing is, you still do. The shortest half lives are tens of thousands of years. Those are the shortest ones. material with longer half lives still exist in spent nuclear fuel, but with lower concentrations. What leads you to believe they don't exist?

> has fewer material with eternal half lives

Grammar error aside - ‘eternal’ half lives don’t exist. The time taken for radioactivity to decay by half cannot be and is not 'forever'. That's very basic maths. Again you’re aggressively incorrect.

> (...) and renewable energy expansion creates the illusion that turning off nuclear power plants now is a good idea.

What exactly leads you to believe that shutting off nuclear power is anything other than a good idea?

> Personally I'd like to see nuclear power be a part of a stable baseline for a few more decades.

It was my understanding that by now it was clear this is all around an awful idea. What leads you to still think otherwise?

The obvious downside of this decision is that nuclear generation that has been shut down is replaced by coal and gas.

Also it's not a given that the renewable strategy will succeed. The bulk electricity prices are already going down to zero across Germany at random times when the weather is good. Which means the renewable energy business don't get revenue when they generate the most electricity. As a consequence even more subsidies are required to further increase the share of renewables.

> The obvious downside of this decision is that nuclear generation that has been shut down is replaced by coal and gas.

This is patently false.

Isar plants were built in the 70s. Back then Germany's share of renewable energy sources was residual. Since then, Germany started shutting off nuclear and currently over 40% of it's energy needs are met with renewable energy sources.

The only way to claim that Germany is replacing nuclear with coal and gas is if you opt to go the disingenuous route and claim that some coal and gas power plants went online while nuclear plants were being shut down.

> Also it's not a given that the renewable strategy will succeed.

What? Supplying nearly half of a country's energy needs is now a sign of failure?

> This is patently false.

It's not false, it's just probably not easy to understand.

It's easy to understand if we consider a hypothetical situation where the nuclear power plant is running AND Germany still keeps all other renewable plans. Since the demand does not change, what other generation would not be running in this case? It is coal and gas.

Thus, by shutting down nuclear, several coal or gas power plants are running instead of idling somewhere.

> What? Supplying nearly half of a country's energy needs is now a sign of failure?

Success in this case is replacement of dirty electricity generation and not using the rest of Europe as a giant battery to solve the unpredictability of renewable generation. The limits of easy renewable deployments are becoming exhausted and it will become much harder to increase the share of renewables even more.

I think we agree that it's great that Germany runs so many renewables already. But long-term objective is much more and it's not clear that it will be achieved.

"It's easy to understand if we consider a hypothetical situation"

lol

> It's not false, it's just probably not easy to understand.

In other words, the thesis has no basis and you have a hard time coming across people who swallow nonsense.

> It's easy to understand if we consider a hypothetical situation where the nuclear power plant is running AND Germany still keeps all other renewable plans.

Is your personal belief held by artificial scenarios that are both absurd and unrealistic?

No wonder people find this blend of bullshit claim hard to understand.

Nuclear is for base load. If Germany kept their reactors or increased them, then coal and gas would not be necessary for the times when renewable energy is not available, which is constantly. So yes, nuclear did get replaced by gas and coal, even though renewables are a much bigger source today.
> What exactly leads you to believe that shutting off nuclear power is anything other than a good idea?

It's objectively a terrible idea until a single coal power plants is still running anywhere in Europe (well approximately anyway...).

Unless that is you consider the value of human lives to be insignificant. 20-30 thousand people die in the EU alone because of coal, slowing down climate change is just a "free" bonus..

> It was my understanding that by now it was clear this is all around an awful idea

Not building more nuclear plants before renewables became economically viable was a awful idea (of course only if you care about pollution and climate change which the German Green had did not even the tiniest bit back in the 80s)

> It's objectively a terrible idea until a single coal power plants is still running anywhere in Europe (well approximately anyway...).

That's not an explanation or rationale. You just repeated a personal belief.

Do you have any rational basis to support that belief? Repeating "because I said so" doesn't make nuclear power more of an option, nor does it eliminate any of it's many problems.

> Unless that is you consider the value of human lives to be insignificant. 20-30 thousand people die in the EU alone because of coal, slowing down climate change is just a "free" bonus..

It should be good news to you then that Germany is also phasing out coal power along with nuclear then, with 2028 set as the deadline.

> Not building more nuclear plants before renewables became economically viable was a awful idea (...)

Reality does not agree with you, as proven by the fact that nearly half of Germany energy needs already come from renewable sources while Nuclear is already on its way out. It makes no sense at all to try to spin this problem as some clerical issue, specially now when renewables are a tremendous success.

How many people to you estimate will die because of coal reactors until we hit this 2028 timeline?
> That's not an explanation or rationale. You just repeated a personal belief.

Are you implying that burning coal results in about as 100-1000 as many deaths as nuclear for the same amount of power generated? I assumed that was common knowledge, sorry..

> It should be good news to you then that Germany is also phasing out coal power along with nuclear then

I guess. They could have already done so by now if not a decade or two ago.

> Reality does not agree with you, as proven by the fact that nearly half of Germany energy needs already come from renewable sources while Nuclear is already on its way out

Yes and? What about share of renewables in 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005? I never said nuclear would be a good option now, it's way too late for that now. However switching to nuclear the same way France did back in the 80s would have resulted in significantly less pollution and CO2 emission (or will you try to argue with that by saying the word "reality" a lot and saying?).

Had this happened worldwide we would be already 10-20 years ahead in the fight against climate change (also prevented thousands if not millions of unnecessary deaths).

Obviously jumping straight to renewables back in the 80s and 90s would have been ideal. Nuclear was the second best option. Sticking to fossil fuels was obviously the worst (even though it was the cheapest, at least if we ignore the externalities, option back then).

FTR: The Isar 2 plant‘s fuel rods are almost depleted. From ordering new ones to actually getting them installed takes 12-18 months. Second: Isar 2 is out of certification. Re-certifying will take another 1-2 years. Third: the 25% co-owner of Isar 2, the city of Munich, has already declared to NOT agree, as has the 75% owner, Preussen-Elektra. And finally - this would need fundamental changes in the German laws for which a majority simply doesn’t exist.

Söder is in the middle of his re-election campaign. This is just another round of his useless populism.

(I live in Munich and have been observing this whole process of shutting down nuclear since it started 23 years ago)

If you want to learn more about the history and implementation of the shutdown decision and process: https://www.base.bund.de/EN/ns/nuclear-phase-out/nuclear-pha... is a good starting point. It’s from the German Federal Office for the safety of nuclear waste.

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I absolutely agree. Furthermore, even if the federal government agreed to hand over operation and responsibility, Söder would certainly have to find a location in Bavaria for a repository for depleted radioactive fuel rods. However, Söder has always vehemently objected to building such a repository in Bavaria, blaming the geological conditions here.

This is just hot air.

P.S.: thanks for the COVID updates

Doesn't France recycle their depleted fuel? There are proliferation concerns with Germany taking such an action, but I think it is warranted considering the mess that is the NPT.
The party that now wants nuclear power back is the one who decided to phase it out in 2011, with a completely self-imposed deadline of 2022. Back in the day the Bavarian Premier, then environment minister, said:

> This transition, which we will achieve by then, will not only change the country in the long term, but also set impulses for the whole world.

Now he's using the opportunity to shift the blame on parties that had nothing to do with his decision.

[1] https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2011-05/seehofer-soe...

[2] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2011-05/csu-seehofer-vor...

The politician in question here, Markus Söder strongly argued for shutting down nuclear power plants after Fukushima. This is not in any way a principled policy, this is pure populism.

Bavaria is also vehemently blocking any attempt to put storage for nuclear fuel in their area.

Something can be pure populism and a good idea at the same time. Something can be a principled policy and disastrous at the same time.
This is not a proposal that is intended to actually happen, this is just to get into the news.
Sure, but in his case it is pure populism. The only rational would be that he finally gets caught by his and his partys stupid energy policy. They were part in phasing out nuclear, but also fought and blocked renewables and blocked the building of a huge power line to the north where there is plenty of wind energy.