Ask HN: Tech that seems to have vanished?
Motivation: Was reading "Ian Wilmut, Creator of Dolly the Sheep Dies" [1] today, and realized that Dolly was born back in 1996 (>1/4 century). Yet, I rarely, if ever, read about cloning of any kind until Dolly's creator dies.
Notably, this appears to be a case where the tech is being used, yet not written about very much [2]. The list of species cloned is pages long, yet I have not read about any of these in major news. [3] Cloning hamburger (cattle)? Cloning housepets (canines)? Backup housepets in case Yeller falls in the well (Sooam Biotech, South Korea, was reported in 2015 to have cloned 700 dogs for their owners @ $100k / each)?
Other examples from my own view:
Graphene - First sighted 2004, still cannot buy graphene in any real quantities (cm's for $100's)
Digital/Smart/Bionic Contact Lens - First sighted 2010, apparently existed earlier (1999). A lot of companies have appeared and then failed or pivoted [4] (Mojo Vision being the most recent [5])
Thermal Cameras - I really thought every phone would have a cheap, mass manufacture thermal camera by now, so everybody could do "U so hot" jokes.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-scientist-who-created-do...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_animal_cloning
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_animals_that_have_been...
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augmented_reality#Contact_lens...
[5] https://techcrunch.com/2023/04/05/after-losing-sight-of-its-...
190 comments
[ 4.6 ms ] story [ 280 ms ] threadThe hypothesis was that they'd advance tho.
It's often the case that a number of technologies have to converge to make a compelling product, and then all of them become commercially available at basically the same time. Firearms, for instance, required both the ability to cast strong, straight metal barrels and the ability to produce gunpowder. Prior to around 1600, these technologies existed but nobody was really pursuing them very hard because either one, by itself, isn’t that useful. Put them together and suddenly the world changes.
Once breachloaders became common, rifling also became common.
Some things have rebounded after a dismal start
Tablet computers (credit Steve Jobs) vs. HyperCard (credit Steve Jobs)
All sorts of digital (and analog) media (until they're nearly gone)
Pivoting headlights (making a comeback, I understand )
Cameras that don't need a battery
Gas Turbines?
I would argue HyperCard of this decade is alive and well as Notion. (And other similar apps)
RAM is making an electric truck with a turbine generator as a range extender.
I'd prefer a PHEV truck, but EV + turbine isn't terrible either.
They're not built in, but you can easily get a thermal camera that plugs into your mobile these days - that one's definitely been improving rather than disappearing. Due to the cost of ownership, there are also companies that will come in with their own and do thermal mapping of your whole house.
I'm not sure if this one really makes a list since nothing was ever mass produced, but automatic food preparer/cooker machines are kind of a popular sci-fi-of-the-80s idea. Some attempts were made and mostly failed to get traction. I've not heard about them for years now.
There are some companies out there in the restaurant automation space. Miso Robotics is one that comes to mind.
A "cheap" automatic food prep system would have huge public health benefits with people eating less processed **. Stretching the idea out further, you could probably save a lot of time and energy from saved/avoided trips to the grocery store.
Cleaning is the main problem. Anything that comes in contact with meat, dairy, etc, is going to need to be cleaned after every use (at least in a home setting).
https://www.catphones.com/en-au/features/integrated-thermal-...
I’ve never needed to buy graphene before… why would most people? Not every technology needs to be applicable at home for it to count as “not vanished”.
Upon googling it, I found this source for about $1/cm^2 of graphene, which is 100x cheaper than what you seemed to be claiming: https://grolltex.com/product/monolayer-graphene-on-copper-fo...
Regardless, one recent product announcement I remember hearing about, which can apparently be bought on Amazon for $13: https://www.thermal-grizzly.com/en/products/625-kryosheet-en
Graphene is real. It hasn’t vanished. It just takes a long time for a new material to become widely used unless it fits neatly as a substitute for something else that was already there. By all appearances, the graphene industry is still growing.
> Thermal Cameras
Seriously? Thermal cameras are commonly used in so many professional applications. They’re not even that expensive, if you want one. No, every smartphone maker is not going to add 5% to 50% to their BoM (depending on quality and phone price, rough estimate) for a feature most people don’t need. Some smartphones offer thermal cameras for people who need that.
Maybe like Space elevator, or wireless electric transmission...
Of course that's all really about money and not knowledge, but that's true for all recently disappeared tech: it just wasn't economically viable.
For tech that has actually been forgotten, you have to go back to Roman self-repairing underwater concrete.
Not a guarantee that I have $50k to spend, but I do have $50k in thought experiment bucks.
It's just, largely pointless. Aside from hoping you can get another champion race horse, why would you spend a bunch of money to get a cloned animal?
Unfortunately, the neighbor had COVID-19 sequela that put her in a nursing home recently (greatly accelerated memory loss), so it was unclear if the clone would have been able to detect the same precursors to blacking out.
More interested in seeing if they can get the Wooly Mammoth up and running again!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memristor
I'm not an expert by a looooong shot, but it looks like there is some baseline of expected behavior that has been experimentally demonstrated for all three established components. If I'm understanding correctly, that would be a huge roadblock to wide adoption.
It's weird I had to scroll down so far to understand what exactly this thing could do.
If they can get the manufacturing process for them worked out. I really do wish memristors turned out to be a success, HP hyped them so massively in the 2011-2015 era. What happened was that the material they had was susceptible to rusting, so what seemed like a good initial yield would become unusable some months down the road.
I google for memristors sometimes, and all the activity regarding them is still confined to the lab unfortunately.
IIRC Google Glass was announced accompanied by sky divers landing at the conference center.
Maybe you haven’t worn them long enough, but you do get used to glasses to the point you forget you’re wearing them, leading to events like showering in them or searching for them while they are in your face.
They may not be in phones, but thermal cameras are cheap, and ubiquitous in many fields. I'd venture that the majority of the fire departments in the US have thermal cameras in operation at this point, and probably most of the people (including hobbyists) with an electronics test bench have one.
For several years after Avatar it was hard to watch movies that weren't showing in 3D. People rushed out to buy 3D TVs. Phones were featuring 3D displays. Cameras were boasting the ability to capture 3D pictures...
I think 3D will eventually make a come back as VR technology progresses, but I genuinely didn't get the hype for 3D during that period.
It'll stick because 3D is inherently available in VR headsets, so there's no need to have a "3D VR version" and a "normal VR version"; if you're targeting VR at all, you might as well use its 3D.
I think VR will (given time) succeed, because VR has a couple of benefits aside from 3D - first up, you get infinite screen-size.
Second, it's more portable than basically anything else can be; even laptops are limited by their screen-size whereas future VR goggles could potentially fit in your pocket.
Third, it integrates "companion apps" much better than a smartphone can, due to AR capability - you don't need to keep glancing between your <smart toaster> and your phone, you can just open up the toaster-VR app and look directly at the toaster.
To be fair though, VR might skip a decade before it truly breaches mainstream (e.g. it might be simply too expensive with current tech, when a smartphone can be bought for <$100), although I doubt it. I think VR will become mainstream by 2030.
I'm very pro-VR, love "thrill of the fight" and "alyx" but sweating it out with a chunky plastic headset is not something I go back to regularly.
I think as VR headsets become more common place over the next decade and that will likely create a market for 3D content.
I doubt it it will be a significant market for some time, but I think VR technology is getting to the point now where people may start using headsets on flights soon and I think companies like Apple will start to invest in quality 3D content to encourage adoption of their VR devices. Although I'm still to be convinced people will want to use them at home over their tablets and TVs.
3D internet was available to everyone 20 years ago, and nobody used it.
This cycle has gone on longer than 3D TVs
I thought 3D TVs were commercial failures, which is ultimately why 3D disappeared
You feel like you're really in that virtual world, in which you can look around and move around, but the moment you actually try to move around, you stumble over your own furniture that you can't see. It's either going to be a very thin illusion or you're going to need a ridiculously big and expensive setup. And the fact that you're blind to the world that your body is in, is always going to be awkward. It's a fun gimmick, but it's possible that it will always remain a gimmick.
By far not mainstream, but it’s around the same as first generation iPhones, so over the coming years may be just crossing the threshold of entering to mainstream.
I’ll make a guess that Quest 3 will have sold 30 million units by 2026, and perhaps the next one after that will be mainstream (xbox, playstation level) territory.
But I haven't made the jump yet, and part of the reason is that being unable to see the controller or look at instructions is going to be an obstacle with a lot of games.
well, one of the problem is that they sorta didn't. 3D TV was pushed hard in the channel, but consumers didn't really go for it.
(Edit: I mean a full-size dishwasher, not the little devices that are partially immersed in water)
Trivia, it's predecessor was called "Towards 2000"
Book-reader devices are alive but very niche, because phone screens got much better.
Inflation seems to have kicked this into high gear as I'm guessing prices update a whole lot quicker. Plus it's a lot cheaper now to fiddle with dynamic pricing and change stuff day to day based on your metrics.
The biggest recent improvement in e-ink, IMO, is the fast multi-dye tech in the Gallery 3 - it enables a color screen that doesn't destroy contrast/resolution like CFA tech does, and doesn't require 10+ second refresh times like past multi-dye screens did.
I'm hoping that the color-tech in e-notes (e-ink stylus tablets) will give e-ink a broader use-case and drive economy of scale. Also I want a color e-note that's not crappy, because drawing in greyscale really limits your options, especially if you want to draw a sunset.
I find myself forced to repeat myself. Could you give everyone here some verifiable data? Please identify what patent you're talking about. I hope I will get a genuine response from someone who genuinely knows that industry because the last time I asked I just got a patents.google.com/search?q=eink response and a link to some random claim made as an HN comment. It is fun to blame patents. But do you think it might be because physics?
Seems its slowly catching on.
I believe the showstopper was that in even the slightest fender-bender, the flywheel would get off-balance and yeet off in a random direction, causing mayhem and calamity.
> Energy Retention After 10 Years 100%
> Potential Storage Capacity 1 day 32 kWh, 10 years 116,800 kWh, 25 years 292,000 kWh
What's the down side? Is it expensive? Is it slow to release energy on demand?
the inventor took it's recipe to the grave.
[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlite
Hyped then didn't take-off: persistent ram (mram, Feram, PCram etc).
Superseded: Incandescent lightbulbs, gas mantle tech, CRT display tech, vinyl, cassette and especially CD/DVD tech, etc.
Fashion: maybe teasmades (alarm clocks that brew tea), I'm sure there are better examples.
Legal/moral/health restrictions: maybe 'consumer' radioactive tech, radium clocks etc.
At the time (late 90s) I bought (on behalf of my employer) a FLIR camera that had a 512x512 sensor for $70k. I remember the cheapest camera we could find was 15k, it had almost no optics and the sensor was noisy as all get out.
I have a thermal inspection workstation (FLIR) that cost about $2700 and has a 320x240 sensor.
So there really has been a cost reduction. It's just more linear than exponential. A few years back, I got a camera for a friend which had a 90x90 sensor, and I think it cost $165 if memory serves. When I worked at that lab, it was inconceivable that a normal person would ever own an IR camera. They were the exclusive domain of researchers, large corporations, and law enforcement. I have 5 or so.
Also, the average person doesn't understand the electromagnetic spectrum, or concepts like emissivity or reflection. They think they're seeing an accurate temperature from their device, not understanding that every material they measure has its own k value.
** BTW: I tried to research this mineral/element and could not find any documentation on it. If you happen to know its name, or if I'm completely off base and its not used anymore, I'd love to know about it.
Hand gesture computer control (Leap Motion).
Flash.
Wework. Peloton.
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