Seattle resident here. First things first, this article is a great reminder for all of us PNWers to have an earthquake kit around the house.
Second, on a much more lighthearted note, our state department of transportation released a video simulating different levels of earthquakes along the waterfront. For some reason in the rendering they included a little touristy hot dog stand that is actually there and show it collapsing. I dunno why I find this so funny but to include such a mundane building falling in the foreground of a video that also shows a massive (and now removed!) viaduct highway collapsing…
> this article is a great reminder for all of us PNWers to have an earthquake kit around the house
A bug out kit too, which can even take the form of a quickly readied RV kept stocked with essentials, assuming one can get to or from mountainous areas in the PNW with it.
RVs are all over the place in PNW suburbia. RVing is a hugely popular pasttime. As for actually keeping it at the ready, that's an issue for the owner, not society.
It is a minority of people who can afford to own and maintain an RV. I commented about this elsewhere on this thread. My point was about how many people I know who do own an RV, do not seem to consider the emergency shelter potential. Most people around here winterize their RV's which involves dumping the fresh water and hot water tanks and adding anti-freeze to the drain lines.
I do not winterize because I want the camper fully stocked and fully fueled. If temps drop below freezing, I heat the thing to keep it ready. If power fails I set the digital thermostat to keep it from freezing. My goal is for it to always be ready to go at a moments notice.
Its true that many will not have the space or resources to be this prepared. But if you already have the RV - why not?
When our home was threatened by fires in the Oregon Labor Day 2020 hell, the RV was ready to go. Fortunately we didn’t get the go order. Alas the rv was totaled the following feb in the ice storm
Also consider putting an automatic gas shutoff valve on your house (and get your neighbors to do the same). They’re a cheap way to decrease the chance that your earthquake kit is on fire just when you need it!
I was almost constantly thinking about this when I lived in Washington. I knew where the tsunami evacuation routes were and my friends thought I was being too paranoid.
Not denying that a megathrust earthquake will be a severe disaster. But I think this article is unduly panic-inducing, particularly for the New Yorker.
> Perhaps no line in the entire six-thousand-word piece attracted as much attention as this declaration by Kenneth Murphy, head of the fema division responsible for Cascadia: “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.” The first important thing to note about that remark is that, needless to say, Murphy really said it, and stood by it in the fact-checking process—so, clearly, fema is anticipating that the region will be in very grave shape.
That said, “toast” is not what you would call a precise description, so let me be more specific. What Murphy did not mean is that everyone west of I-5 will be injured or killed; fema’s casualty figures, while horrifying, amount to under one-half of one per cent of the population of the region. Nor did he mean that every structure west of the interstate will fail.
> this article is unduly panic-inducing, particularly for the New Yorker.
It would be seen as an uncomfortable reminder in the PNW, and not panic-inducing. Glad that you framed it with your own location to give context. I'm not suggesting people in BC, Washington, and Oregon are fatalist or unconcerned, just aware that in our human lifespans there are the positives that can usually outweigh the risks.
One thing that causes panic is that the full Cascades quake, 10% in 50 years, will be 9.0. But Portland and Seattle are a long ways from the offshore fault. My understanding is that the shaking will feel like M7 but going on for minutes. It will cause lots of damage, especially since there are unreinforced masonry buildings and old infrastructure. But it won’t flatten things like nearby M9.
The other is that the more probable quake, 37% in 50 years, is the M8 one on southern section. That will be even less shaking in big cities, but southern Oregon and Northern California will get wrecked.
OTOH, the coast will be smashed. They are closer to fault. And then few minutes later will get hit by tsunami. The quake will be similar to the 2011 Japan one. But US is much less prepared. PNW cities could be like Tokyo and ride out quake with little damage.
Honestly, the problem west of I-5 is not the real issue.
By this I mean, were something like this to happen, west of I-5 suffers its devastation quickly, perhaps a lot of people are lost from quakes or tsunamis or whatever. But, once it's done, it's done and recovery can start.
The real issue is east. The quake will tear through this region, which is rough country, potentially doing severe damage to roads and, more notably, bridges.
There's a reason FEMA recommends a 3 Day go bag, and, perhaps, 2 weeks in place. And the premise behind that is that once the event is passed, the cavalry will arrive. So, there's little reason for folks to maintain months and years of supplies. Even Katrina was mostly resolved, from an emergency point of view, in less than 2 weeks.
This will likely not be the case for eastern part of Oregon. The far east, dry side, sure. But that middle section, no roads, no bridges, rugged terrain, dense woods, not easy for the cavalry to arrive in any length of time. It is very reasonable to expect that aid will not be readily able to reach you (or evacuate you) in, perhaps, months. I think folks in that area need to seriously consider a 60+ day plan to get through something like this.
Urban preparation is very difficult. You can store up some supplies for your family, but you're likely surrounded by families. Ye Olde Ant and the Grasshopper fable.
So, in truth, it has to be a community effort. Easier said than done. If everyone stocks up some for their neighbors as well, it can go much easier.
> Your right hand represents the North American tectonic plate, which bears on its back, among other things, our entire continent, from One World Trade Center to the Space Needle, in Seattle
This kind of “inevitable uncertainty” is uncomfortable. It will happen, and becomes more likely as time goes on, but it’s unlikely to happen today or tomorrow. It’s possibly catastrophic, but likely to be “only” severe.
Geology in Oregon is somewhat terrifying. The Columbia River gorge wasn’t a slow gradual cut over millions of years — it was a roaring, rushing calamity of water and ice ripping out solid rock.
And, the rock? Laid down by lava flows so large they span hundreds of miles and are deeper than buildings are tall.
Beautifully said. The whole pacific west is a scary wonder. Only thing I’d contest is that it’s just as likely to happen today or tomorrow as next year. Best to be prepared.
One of my favorite such observations is in winter. Arriving at the top of the Mt Hood Express chairlift, soaking in blue sky and white snow, a smell of sulfur is often in the air. The magma chamber of this “potentially active” volcano is venting gases from the rock at my side.
I was about to say that (likelihood does not increase just because it hasn't happened), but then I realized that stresses along the faults DO increase, so maybe it does get more likely. I'm not a geologist.
The Columbia River Gorge is the same age as the Cascades and much older than the glacial floods. The Columbia river is older than the mountains and the Gorge formed as the mountains rose.
The Gorge looked different before the glacial floods, they definitely change it. But the floods took that path to the sea because the Gorge was there. The floods had more effect on the Willamette Valley where they dumped lots of debris into the valley.
I’d quibble that the Cascades don’t have an age as they have continually been destroyed and renewed. They started at some point and have never stopped.
What I mean by “the gorge” is what is monumental. The river was there, but what we admire about it is much more recent. Also, I’m not trying to be precise. The article was fundamentally about fear, and I’m just speaking to all the natural things around me that can cause it but really shouldn’t.
Many people overlook that the most dangerous fault in Seattle is its eponymous fault, a shallow major thrust fault that runs through the city and the bodies of water that surround it. The Cascadia subduction zone fault can produce stronger earthquakes but is far away.
Less than a year before Katrina, PBS’ Nova ScienceNow looked at the potential effects of a hurricane hitting New Orleans (including failure of the levies).
As Portland resident, I remember the waves this article made around here. Friends and family prepared "go-bags" and "bug-out kits" and dutifully stocked away extra provisions. This has mostly all evaporated into distant memory and nobody seems to have the same level preparedness anymore.
This was just the time my wife and I purchased a slide-in truck camper. In my view, a truck camper is a perfect emergency shelter. We keep it fully fueled, with full fresh water tanks, and fully stocked with provisions. The camper has a built-in generator, solar chargers, 50+ gallons of fresh water, hot shower, kitchen, comfortable bed, fridge, freezer, etc. It sits in our driveway. It is fully mobile - it can also go anywhere the dually truck can go.
We've had to use it as an emergency shelter twice now because of ice storms knocking out power to our home and neighborhood for days at a time with ambient temps below 15 degrees. I keep 5 extra propane tanks in my shed along with extra water and shelf stable provisions.
In the next month, we are going to install a transfer switch on the breaker panel in our house that will allow us to run the house from the camper generator. It will be limited, but we will be able to keep the furnace and fridge going.
Nobody I know who owns an RV sets it up as an emergency shelter. I don't know why - but the threat of a major, disastrous earthquake is very real. Further, many of my neighbors were ill-prepared for the most recent major storm two weeks ago (despite plenty of warning) and grumbled a lot about the city falling down on its job. In a major earthquake these people are going to be desperate and many people will die. The city will be broken and if you rely on emergency services - you are going to be lucky to survive.
I'm not a prepper. We bought the camper for off-grid camping in remote wilderness - but I do believe in common sense preparation for "The Big One". Despite the flurry of attention this article created in 2015 - most people have put it out of their mind.
this is virtually my strategy too - but keep in mind when the event happens, chances are you won't be able to drive super far without going off road, and even then, you may end up blocked. roads and highways are expected to have massive damage. people dont realize that e.g the entire valley zone of Oregon will have no restoration of infrastructure until potentially more than a year after the event (coming straight from a study I could cite if needed). we're talking no hospitals, no police, no water, no sewer... for more than a year...
Yeah I think people overestimate the effectiveness of four wheel vehicles on uneven ground. It is very easy to get bogged down, tip into a ditch, run out of clearence on one side or have major technical issues. And the routes that do exist can get blocked very easily. A pair of boots, a trail bike, or a mountain bike are in a different league on that kind of terrain. You can always get off and push.
Obviously a vehicle is good but may just be phase 1 of bugging out. Best to pack the bike, sleeping bag and water purifier.
Good points. My comment about the mobility of the truck camper applies only if we can in fact, find passable surfaces. The point for us is to be prepared to the best of our ability and I think we have done a good job in the regard. We will have a potential survival advantage.
My biggest worry are other, extremely desperate people whom I would be very inclined to help. But this would have limits and things might get gnarly leading into an area I hate to think about - using lethal force to protect my family. Hopefully, simply being visibly armed would be a deterrent, but its hard to game out how bad it might get.
My larger point is really about how ill-prepared most of my neighbors are. The recent storm simply highlighted this problem. We were all very comfortable because we had a generator and alternate, heated shelter. I spent a lot of time helping neighbors. I also had the only vehicle (Outback with all wheel drive with blizzak tires - just amazing on ice) on my sloped street that could successfully navigate ice so I was out buying cat food for my elderly neighbor, and buying groceries for our other neighbors with a new baby.
Your neighbours could be your biggest asset, particularly if you already have trust. Survival and defence are a team activity and manpower is good. A lone person may be well armed. But they also needs to cook, haul water, keep an eye out for strangers, remain sane and happy, maybe do child care, sleep.
It is funny how unusual this point of view is nowadays. I guess a fundamental purpose of money is to decouple things from social obligation. You pay for something and you don't have to do anything more than that. But if that breaks down you are back to obligation and reciprocation.
This is the ideal scenario. We have a great neighborhood with lovely, helpful people. However, as this last storm pointed out - most of them do not prepare very well for potential disaster situations. I can stock up for my family, and have enough to share, but there will be limits.
The lack of prep from my neighbors concerns me. I was glad to help. I just won't be able to feed the neighborhood. A worst case scenario earthquake will be far more damaging and stressful.
the roads will all be out, or gridlocked in both directions, with criminals on foot robbing the cars.
Or if you do get where you want to go, it'll be thronged with other urban escapees and they'll have even less food, water, and shelter.
My own belief is, your house is unlikely to be really unhabitable. It's better to NOT bug out, and have your emergency supplies there. You'll get to know your neighbors, if you don't already know them.
Oh I agree - the roads may very well be impassable and/or gridlocked. The plan is to stay in place and live off provisions. If leaving was possible, it would be a few days before we even tried to do so.
My worries about a tsunami are tempered by the coastal mountains. This would send a surge of the Columbia River and likely take out the airport. But we live on high ground well-above any flood zone.
In the absolute worst case scenario - we might all be toast.
To start, but if the situation does not improve in two weeks or so, roving gangs spontaneously arise (or so i have been told by someone who drops into disaster areas to provide aid)
Another old story I was stricken by reading about was the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. There are tons of stories of suddenly homeless people sleeping in golden gate park. Of strangers helping strangers. There are pretty much no stories about crime.
If you are trying to justify your own contempt for your idea of what human nature is, then sure, believe the worst of your neighbors. Maybe you watch too many disaster movies. Back here in reality I'm less concerned about it.
Mix in there is one US political party who has spent a few years now trying to make voters paranoid about crime.
I am merely looking at the meaning of words you write.
> And you're oh-so-sensitive to anything that even implies that crime might happen.
You're projecting onto me and saying the problem is that I'm "oh-so-sensitive", rather than you being paranoid and hating people and therefore have unrealistically pessimistic movie-plot style ideas about roving gangs that are going to victimize people who massively outnumber them.
Just imagine the scene you described:
> gridlocked in both directions, with criminals on foot robbing the cars.
So I picture a long line of cars, and a small number of people robbing them. If there is traffic gridlock, the bystanders far outnumber the robbers, because gridlock by definition consists of people. You think all of them will let them do it? Note the robbers would also be prevented from leaving by the gridlock that surrounds them. You painted a wildly unlikely scenario, and it's my fault for being "sensitive" to your fantasy. I know, I'm so unreasonable for calling bullshit on this.
> And you're probably the person who flagged the other comment, too
No I did not, so please don't jump to conclusions. But I did notice that user created an account to criticize me. I guess I'm not the only one who needs a hobby.
You can tell from these threads the folks who weren’t old enough to remember Katrina, how quickly things spiraled out of control. All of the worst case scenarios people say are unlikely happened in real life.
> In a major earthquake these people are going to be desperate and many people will die. The city will be broken and if you rely on emergency services - you are going to be lucky to survive.
The nice thing about a earthquake is that it's gonna be fairly localized and not a "entire country event", so the feds can react pretty quickly. I still have a week's food at home though...
As someone who firsthand saw the government response to gulf coast hurricanes in the 2000s-10s, the feds are absolutely not always able (or willing, or competently managed or resourced enough) to act quickly
There may be no need for the complexity and space usage of a transfer switch.
I would install a male 50amp receptacle (NEMA SS2-50P ?) next to your main panel and connect it to a breaker next to your main utility breaker. Then you install the little metal interlock between them to make it impossible to use both breakers simultaneously ...
... and then you just buy a big extension cord.
The 50amp receptacle is nice because it is code compliant for residential and it allows you to connect other power sources in the future.
Your emergency disaster kit should include an AR-15 or similar battle rifle. Civilization will decay considerably in such an event and it may take a good week or two to get the national guard deployed.
It's at this point when preparedness turns into weird, fringe thinking that's also dangerous. A battle rifle can be used to hurt people. Assuming others will try to hurt you in an emergency event is the basis for what people think of when they imagine "peppers": basically, people who believe the world and everything in it is out to get them.
It doesn't hurt to be prepared but spending a significant part of your life crafting your post-apocalyptic future informs more about your stance toward living and toward people than it does healthy relations with the world.
Many words spent to justify owning a battle rifle that boils down to
> So if you ask someone else on the opposite side of a culture war argument, “Why would you want to own one of those things, anyway?” please don’t be surprised if they simply respond, “Why wouldn’t you?”
They also admit the sample size of a few hundred years for the US is poor before then going on to compare the US to autocratic countries like Russia.
Let's say you now own a battle rifle. Now what? Well, you can't just have a battle rifle lying around the house. So you buy a battle rifle safe. Now what? Well, you can't just own a battle rifle and now know what to do with it in case all Hell breaks loose can you? So now you have to go down to the shooting range and learn how to shoot the thing. Now what? The heavily armed squads that are going to be raiding your block are probably really good shooters so you better buy a few more and buy lessons for the whole family. See where I'm going with this?
A prepper's mind geared up for such a man-on-man scenario of doomsday violence will never be satisfied.
I’m just curious, you keep referring to it as a battle rifle. Do you think a non-battle rifle is more appropriate, or are you saying that battles should never be engaged in.
Had a presentation at Rotary on this recently... turns out that Spokane, Walla Walla, and the Tri-Cities are intended to be centers that will house displaced persons and queue supplies for the relief / rebuild effort. I recently got talking to someone in Olympia who works in disaster relief who indicated that the state / feds responsible for our region have exactly zero contracts or supplies in place, rather they have big lists of what they will need to buy on the spot and a big list of who might possibly have it. Similarly, it turns out that eastern Washington is not as immune to all of these as we thought. Many know about the stateline earthquake that happened back in the 1930s (??) but apparently there is active tectonic movement, I believe in the area of Wallula gap. Good times.
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[ 3.5 ms ] story [ 166 ms ] threadSecond, on a much more lighthearted note, our state department of transportation released a video simulating different levels of earthquakes along the waterfront. For some reason in the rendering they included a little touristy hot dog stand that is actually there and show it collapsing. I dunno why I find this so funny but to include such a mundane building falling in the foreground of a video that also shows a massive (and now removed!) viaduct highway collapsing…
https://youtu.be/hos_uIKwC-c?si=r66wbS7WJdbEoD2G
Rest in peace, little hot dog stand…
A bug out kit too, which can even take the form of a quickly readied RV kept stocked with essentials, assuming one can get to or from mountainous areas in the PNW with it.
I do not winterize because I want the camper fully stocked and fully fueled. If temps drop below freezing, I heat the thing to keep it ready. If power fails I set the digital thermostat to keep it from freezing. My goal is for it to always be ready to go at a moments notice.
Its true that many will not have the space or resources to be this prepared. But if you already have the RV - why not?
This follow-up article by the same author is more levelheaded: https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/how-to-s...
Notably:
> Perhaps no line in the entire six-thousand-word piece attracted as much attention as this declaration by Kenneth Murphy, head of the fema division responsible for Cascadia: “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.” The first important thing to note about that remark is that, needless to say, Murphy really said it, and stood by it in the fact-checking process—so, clearly, fema is anticipating that the region will be in very grave shape. That said, “toast” is not what you would call a precise description, so let me be more specific. What Murphy did not mean is that everyone west of I-5 will be injured or killed; fema’s casualty figures, while horrifying, amount to under one-half of one per cent of the population of the region. Nor did he mean that every structure west of the interstate will fail.
It would be seen as an uncomfortable reminder in the PNW, and not panic-inducing. Glad that you framed it with your own location to give context. I'm not suggesting people in BC, Washington, and Oregon are fatalist or unconcerned, just aware that in our human lifespans there are the positives that can usually outweigh the risks.
The other is that the more probable quake, 37% in 50 years, is the M8 one on southern section. That will be even less shaking in big cities, but southern Oregon and Northern California will get wrecked.
OTOH, the coast will be smashed. They are closer to fault. And then few minutes later will get hit by tsunami. The quake will be similar to the 2011 Japan one. But US is much less prepared. PNW cities could be like Tokyo and ride out quake with little damage.
By this I mean, were something like this to happen, west of I-5 suffers its devastation quickly, perhaps a lot of people are lost from quakes or tsunamis or whatever. But, once it's done, it's done and recovery can start.
The real issue is east. The quake will tear through this region, which is rough country, potentially doing severe damage to roads and, more notably, bridges.
There's a reason FEMA recommends a 3 Day go bag, and, perhaps, 2 weeks in place. And the premise behind that is that once the event is passed, the cavalry will arrive. So, there's little reason for folks to maintain months and years of supplies. Even Katrina was mostly resolved, from an emergency point of view, in less than 2 weeks.
This will likely not be the case for eastern part of Oregon. The far east, dry side, sure. But that middle section, no roads, no bridges, rugged terrain, dense woods, not easy for the cavalry to arrive in any length of time. It is very reasonable to expect that aid will not be readily able to reach you (or evacuate you) in, perhaps, months. I think folks in that area need to seriously consider a 60+ day plan to get through something like this.
Urban preparation is very difficult. You can store up some supplies for your family, but you're likely surrounded by families. Ye Olde Ant and the Grasshopper fable.
So, in truth, it has to be a community effort. Easier said than done. If everyone stocks up some for their neighbors as well, it can go much easier.
Truly the two ends of the continent.
Cape Spear and Attu Station would like a word with you. I'm sure you meant ''continental U.S.A.'' sort of.
Geology in Oregon is somewhat terrifying. The Columbia River gorge wasn’t a slow gradual cut over millions of years — it was a roaring, rushing calamity of water and ice ripping out solid rock.
And, the rock? Laid down by lava flows so large they span hundreds of miles and are deeper than buildings are tall.
The violence of Mother Nature.
None of this stuff is likely today, but it will all inevitably repeat.
The Gorge looked different before the glacial floods, they definitely change it. But the floods took that path to the sea because the Gorge was there. The floods had more effect on the Willamette Valley where they dumped lots of debris into the valley.
What I mean by “the gorge” is what is monumental. The river was there, but what we admire about it is much more recent. Also, I’m not trying to be precise. The article was fundamentally about fear, and I’m just speaking to all the natural things around me that can cause it but really shouldn’t.
He's entertaining, incredibly information dense, and I could (and have) spent hours watching his videos, and I don't even live in the area.
https://youtu.be/XjZ5mAXcAy0?si=1CfLMxuqmZ7wYI-r
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/education/earth/hurricanes-new...
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/video/hurricanes/
* tectonic plate(s) subduction earthquake
* tsunami
* volcanism
* wildfire
* Arctic outflow weather pattern
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lahar
* landslides
* solufluction
This was just the time my wife and I purchased a slide-in truck camper. In my view, a truck camper is a perfect emergency shelter. We keep it fully fueled, with full fresh water tanks, and fully stocked with provisions. The camper has a built-in generator, solar chargers, 50+ gallons of fresh water, hot shower, kitchen, comfortable bed, fridge, freezer, etc. It sits in our driveway. It is fully mobile - it can also go anywhere the dually truck can go.
We've had to use it as an emergency shelter twice now because of ice storms knocking out power to our home and neighborhood for days at a time with ambient temps below 15 degrees. I keep 5 extra propane tanks in my shed along with extra water and shelf stable provisions.
In the next month, we are going to install a transfer switch on the breaker panel in our house that will allow us to run the house from the camper generator. It will be limited, but we will be able to keep the furnace and fridge going.
Nobody I know who owns an RV sets it up as an emergency shelter. I don't know why - but the threat of a major, disastrous earthquake is very real. Further, many of my neighbors were ill-prepared for the most recent major storm two weeks ago (despite plenty of warning) and grumbled a lot about the city falling down on its job. In a major earthquake these people are going to be desperate and many people will die. The city will be broken and if you rely on emergency services - you are going to be lucky to survive.
I'm not a prepper. We bought the camper for off-grid camping in remote wilderness - but I do believe in common sense preparation for "The Big One". Despite the flurry of attention this article created in 2015 - most people have put it out of their mind.
looks like I slightly exaggerated a couple figures and understated others. 3 years to restore healthcare in the valley zone.
Obviously a vehicle is good but may just be phase 1 of bugging out. Best to pack the bike, sleeping bag and water purifier.
My biggest worry are other, extremely desperate people whom I would be very inclined to help. But this would have limits and things might get gnarly leading into an area I hate to think about - using lethal force to protect my family. Hopefully, simply being visibly armed would be a deterrent, but its hard to game out how bad it might get.
My larger point is really about how ill-prepared most of my neighbors are. The recent storm simply highlighted this problem. We were all very comfortable because we had a generator and alternate, heated shelter. I spent a lot of time helping neighbors. I also had the only vehicle (Outback with all wheel drive with blizzak tires - just amazing on ice) on my sloped street that could successfully navigate ice so I was out buying cat food for my elderly neighbor, and buying groceries for our other neighbors with a new baby.
The lack of prep from my neighbors concerns me. I was glad to help. I just won't be able to feed the neighborhood. A worst case scenario earthquake will be far more damaging and stressful.
the roads will all be out, or gridlocked in both directions, with criminals on foot robbing the cars.
Or if you do get where you want to go, it'll be thronged with other urban escapees and they'll have even less food, water, and shelter.
My own belief is, your house is unlikely to be really unhabitable. It's better to NOT bug out, and have your emergency supplies there. You'll get to know your neighbors, if you don't already know them.
Of course, a tsunami cancels all that advice.
My worries about a tsunami are tempered by the coastal mountains. This would send a surge of the Columbia River and likely take out the airport. But we live on high ground well-above any flood zone.
In the absolute worst case scenario - we might all be toast.
Yeah, stay where you are . More support there,
You live in a paranoid universe. The vast majority of people will want to help strangers, and they will outnumber opportunistic criminals by far.
Anyway the one disaster story I remember hearing so much about lawlessness, here is the first Google result I get: https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/aug/16/hurricane-ka... -- it was basically racist stereotyping and bullshit.
Another old story I was stricken by reading about was the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. There are tons of stories of suddenly homeless people sleeping in golden gate park. Of strangers helping strangers. There are pretty much no stories about crime.
If you are trying to justify your own contempt for your idea of what human nature is, then sure, believe the worst of your neighbors. Maybe you watch too many disaster movies. Back here in reality I'm less concerned about it.
Mix in there is one US political party who has spent a few years now trying to make voters paranoid about crime.
I am merely looking at the meaning of words you write.
> And you're oh-so-sensitive to anything that even implies that crime might happen.
You're projecting onto me and saying the problem is that I'm "oh-so-sensitive", rather than you being paranoid and hating people and therefore have unrealistically pessimistic movie-plot style ideas about roving gangs that are going to victimize people who massively outnumber them.
Just imagine the scene you described:
> gridlocked in both directions, with criminals on foot robbing the cars.
So I picture a long line of cars, and a small number of people robbing them. If there is traffic gridlock, the bystanders far outnumber the robbers, because gridlock by definition consists of people. You think all of them will let them do it? Note the robbers would also be prevented from leaving by the gridlock that surrounds them. You painted a wildly unlikely scenario, and it's my fault for being "sensitive" to your fantasy. I know, I'm so unreasonable for calling bullshit on this.
No I did not, so please don't jump to conclusions. But I did notice that user created an account to criticize me. I guess I'm not the only one who needs a hobby.
as I said: expect the best, but prepare for the worst.
As does a rapidly approaching wildfire. At that point, it is RV-on-the-road-elsewhere if I haven't already bugged out in it.
The nice thing about a earthquake is that it's gonna be fairly localized and not a "entire country event", so the feds can react pretty quickly. I still have a week's food at home though...
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B01MV05P2K/
There may be no need for the complexity and space usage of a transfer switch.
I would install a male 50amp receptacle (NEMA SS2-50P ?) next to your main panel and connect it to a breaker next to your main utility breaker. Then you install the little metal interlock between them to make it impossible to use both breakers simultaneously ...
... and then you just buy a big extension cord.
The 50amp receptacle is nice because it is code compliant for residential and it allows you to connect other power sources in the future.
I used to sing a twisted version of a children’s song with my kids. (No psych damage I know of!) “We are going to eat, eat, eat, peoples & baneenees!”
Hopefully food drops happen very quickly!
It doesn't hurt to be prepared but spending a significant part of your life crafting your post-apocalyptic future informs more about your stance toward living and toward people than it does healthy relations with the world.
> So if you ask someone else on the opposite side of a culture war argument, “Why would you want to own one of those things, anyway?” please don’t be surprised if they simply respond, “Why wouldn’t you?”
They also admit the sample size of a few hundred years for the US is poor before then going on to compare the US to autocratic countries like Russia.
Let's say you now own a battle rifle. Now what? Well, you can't just have a battle rifle lying around the house. So you buy a battle rifle safe. Now what? Well, you can't just own a battle rifle and now know what to do with it in case all Hell breaks loose can you? So now you have to go down to the shooting range and learn how to shoot the thing. Now what? The heavily armed squads that are going to be raiding your block are probably really good shooters so you better buy a few more and buy lessons for the whole family. See where I'm going with this?
A prepper's mind geared up for such a man-on-man scenario of doomsday violence will never be satisfied.
It was originally a long-form blog post by Michal Zalewski and he turned into a book with even more content.
4 years ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22072494
3 years ago (related link to Wikipedia page): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27045463
10 months ago about warm liquid from the fault: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35559145