I think WFH (no RTO) and high interest rates will spark a recession. That was the whole idea of the Fed hiking rates and tightening 'QT' to reduce inflation. It's not an accident, a recession was always the goal.
However, we all know, if there is any whiff of a real crisis, The Fed will bailout: most regional banks (more likely forced acquisition by TBTF Wall St. Friends of the Fed ); some large CRE developers; and leveraged 'insider' REIT funds like Blackrock (not WeWork).
Most (>50% by loan value) Americans already have .gov as their residential landlord through Fannie & Freddie. Soon most of their mostly-empty office space will also have a .gov landlord.
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[ 3.1 ms ] story [ 50.9 ms ] threadIf he's not too busy.
That's not on us. That's on them.
the only time they went against that? years of inflation as the rent seekers turned up the... you guessed it, rent.
However, we all know, if there is any whiff of a real crisis, The Fed will bailout: most regional banks (more likely forced acquisition by TBTF Wall St. Friends of the Fed ); some large CRE developers; and leveraged 'insider' REIT funds like Blackrock (not WeWork).
Most (>50% by loan value) Americans already have .gov as their residential landlord through Fannie & Freddie. Soon most of their mostly-empty office space will also have a .gov landlord.