Everytime someone complains cars are too expensive in the US, they need to be reminded that '05-'09 Prius can be purchased for ~$6k that will get 42 mpg and another 50-200k miles on them, with rock bottom registration and insurance prices.
The idea of an electric vehicle is brilliant. I'd love a fully electric van, being able to tap into a 100-200kWh battery would be a game changer for camping.
For me though, EVs just aren't actually better yet.
Tesla came close but long term their reliability and vendor lock-in issues mean that they're never going to work like a 10-20 year old Civic, Corolla, Transit etc which ruins the value proposition.
I have no doubt that they'll get there, but they have to be a strict improvement on a 30 year old ICE car first.
I don't prefer ICE to EV. I actually prefer electric vehicles. When Ford release an electric Transit with the range and payload of my diesel one, and when the cost of electricity at a rapid charger is comparable in the UK, I'll switch in a heartbeat. It'll be brilliant.
> They're much better at not emitting CO2, for example.
They are better, but not necessarily much better. A Toyota Prius Prime can get 39 to 44 miles in electric mode [1]. That's good enough for the average person's daily commute or weekend errands, which constitute the vast majority of the miles driven by people. The end result could be a reduction in emissions by 95%. Not 100%, true. But that 100% reduction of an EV is mostly a shifting of emissions to some central power plant, and since electricity is fungible, one can't really say that that particular power plant is solar. In other words, the difference between the overall emissions of an EV vs a good plug-in hybrid (like the Prius Prime) is negligible.
If you have a plug available to recharge your commute every day, then you're probably fine with an EV. If you don't then you'd probably prefer an occasional fast charge rather than being limited to slow charging.
…isn’t that 95% for the Prius also shifting emissions, though? That doesn’t seem like a point in favor of the hybrid.
One can’t say that a particular energetic electron was energized by a solar plant, sure. But one can look at new power deployment and see that almost all of it is non-CO2-emitting, a large majority is renewable, and more than half of it is solar. [1]
Over the past decade the US has turned over roughly 1-2% of generation capacity annually, and grown by about 1% annually [2]—but those numbers are accelerating: in 2023 we grew about 6%. [1]
Totally plausible that we’re at the start of an S-curve here; the grid is certainly not getting dirtier, and with an expected life of > 10 years an EV purchased today will be quite a bit cleaner by EOL based on charging power source alone.
>Tesla came close but long term their reliability...
I have joked, since 2016, that Tesla will be among the largest donators of intellectual property [to other vehicle manufacturers incorporating their ideas]; but that ultimately hybrid drivetrains like Toyota's are a better solution for most long-distance travelers.
If you thinks those open sourced patents, those are honeypots for OEMs. If you will use them, you are automatically giving Tesla your patents for free. Nobody used Tesla patents.
BYD [a Chinese company, largest EV manufacturer in the world] does not care about US intellectual property controls. I agree with you that Tesla's "open patents" are a honeypot, but my statement above goes far beyond just patents or just US jurisdiction.
America doesn't really agree with you; The Tesla model Y was the second-best selling car in the US in 2023, after the RAV4 and well ahead of the Camry.
I own a variety of cars, and do still have some ICE cars, but for almost every use case, I prefer my model Y. As to reliability, n=4 narrative, I've owned a Tesla of one sort or the other since 2018 or so, and two Nissan Leafs since 2015 and here's the full list of repairs and dealer visits I've needed: Tesla Model 3 Dual motor charge port won't auto close after open. Nissan Leaf Gen 1 window button needed replacing. That's it. By comparison my Toyota vans have had roughly ten service calls / dealer visits in the same period.
If you read through most reports on Tesla reliability, generally initial build quality is the main complaint. Electric cars are mechanically super simple, and this is a daily benefit for any driver of an EV.
To my mind the 'strict improvement' rule at this point needs to be doing a lot of work when you compare to a 1998 civic. Do you include smell, window seals, oil consumption, power, lane departure warnings, pre-braking in case of emergency, highway passing acceleration, ...?
> As to reliability, n=4 narrative, I've owned a Tesla of one sort or the other since 2018 or so, and two Nissan Leafs since 2015 and here's the full list of repairs and dealer visits I've needed: Tesla Model 3 Dual motor charge port won't auto close after open. Nissan Leaf Gen 1 window button needed replacing. That's it. By comparison my Toyota vans have had roughly ten service calls / dealer visits in the same period.
The relevant data here would be how valuable are Teslas after 20 years and 250k miles? Because when I buy a Toyota, I am pretty confident I will still be able to use it, or sell it for a decent amount.
Personally my Model S had all sorts of issues, I sold it before the warranty period ended as I knew that I didn't want to pay dealer prices for everything and deal with the bottlenecks.
I just can't see a Model S actually being on the road when it's 15-20 years old because no-one is going to want to pay Tesla prices to maintain it.
The relevant comparison is with a ~2020 Civic i.e. when both cars are 20 years old, which one will still be going.
My next car will be a Tesla but not for the ICE vs Electric reasons.
I am in Toronto and car theft is very common here as our Ports have very lax security. Toyotas top the list for stolen vehicles. And Teslas are the least stolen vehicle. I wish Toyotas were harder to steal.
The lack of a transmission, not needing to go to a gas station, and no exhaust (particular the highly targeted catalytic convertor) has become invaluable to me. After buying an all electric vehicle, the only reason I'd ever touch a non-fully electric vehicle is for cross-country road trips up to Colorado.
It's due to their reputation for rock-solid reliability, better torque and MPG with hybrids and making sure a hybrid option is available across all vehicle sizes.
Typically Honda would compete with Toyota with similar offerings but their hybrids aren't matching up to Toyota yet in MPG and you can't get it in large SUVs.
So now you have a situation where nobody is competing with Toyota because everyone's busy making EVs.
True or not, it's now assumed you can drive a Toyota for 150k miles without breaking a sweat.
Toyota Sienna and Toyota Grand Highlander are three row vehicles rated at 36 MPG. These cars are selling out before they even hit the dealer lot.
Everything you say is true, but where the financial success comes from is leveraging this (well earned) reputation to support high, no negotiation, take it or leave it prices, and often mandatory financing. We'll see if the market continues to support fixed pricing and turning away cash buyers.
Generally, Toyota buyers don't like to stick out in a crowd. They do have a new, reasonably priced Land Cruiser coming out, which is styled after their older, very popular Land Cruisers.
I would'nt be surprised if they come out with a 2-door version of such to fill the long vacated slot left by the FJ Cruiser.
In my country, Toyota dealers (there are two) have the same price for cash than for bankloans. It is not mandatory to use financing in here, but the last three times I have asked in showrooms, across some 15 years, the assistants have no idea how to process a full payment. They always took 30-60 minutes to ask around.
The price is pretty much fixed, except for cars which weren't sold after receiving a downpayment for them.
I also bought a RAV4 Prime in April of 2022, when they were very hard to come by. Arranged my own financing with a credit union at 1.99% (really got in under the wire with low rates). Dealer argued that I should at least try applying for Toyota financing but when he admitted they’d never beat 1.99% he relented and took my check. This was in Maryland, US.
Would really like to hear of a situation where a dealer literally refused a cash or outside financed transaction.
I had a dealer refuse to sell me the car I wanted at the price they listed online. I was required to use their financing and spend $4k on service plans for that price. It was a $12k used car. This was one of the largest ford dealerships in Houston
Toyota has a built in customer base that is growing. With the exception of Tundra trucks, their parking lots are usually empty while Ford, GM, and Stellantis have new vehicles stacked all over with no buyers.
Of the 3 Toyota dealerships I worked with during Covid, not a single one of them charged over MSRP, even for in demand vehicles. I was at the local Toyota dealership a few months ago, and they had a long line of new vehicles parked out front, all with large SOLD signs in the windscreen. Toyota has learned from C19 and not to overstuff their dealerships with products that do not sell and cost dealerships big money in floorplan financing.
It is a similar story at the 2 Honda dealerships I've dealt with in the same time period. MSRP sales, new vehicle lot empty because vehicles are sold before they arrive.
An interesting parallel to be sure, but for many people smart phones were a luxury rather than a necessity. For people outside of well-covered public transit cities (and even many people inside of those) cars are a necessity.
Also when I think about this personally, I was 5x or more faster at typing on my old blackberry than I have ever been on modern phones. When thinking luxury v. necessity, things like that I think will matter a lot more than they did for phones.
Given this hybrid strategy (which seems sensible for now given constraints on battery supply chains) I would love to see Toyota offer first-party upgrades to better battery technology (as they become more affordable), and adding plug-in capabilities for existing models with lower energy density batteries (NiMH). Dealers would love this too. IRA incentivizes should cover retrofit costs. This would have greater carbon mitigation in the short- to mid-term than a pure EV approach.
I think it's essentially, because Toyota is the best at hybrid technology that many people who want hybrids are only willing to purchase Toyotas. I don't think this is duplicatable by the auto industry as a whole.
I'm not going to buy something as complicated as a hybrid from General Motors, most American car companies or some European brand, when they can't even build very reliable combustion vehicles. Imagine what it would cost to repair such a vehicle from those manufacturers.
It's more about Toyota knowing their strengths and successfully delivering a lineup that honors those strengths than some strategy the other manufacturers are missing.
Personally when I consider buying a Prius Prime or a Model 3 for a similar price with a shorter lead time, I'm going to buy the Model 3 every time.
It's not even just that people are only willing to buy Toyota hybrids. In some places in the US Toyotas are just about the only hybrids one can easily buy. Good luck buying a Ford hybrid if you're not in California, practically none are allotted to my area.
As much as I agree with your sentiment on Elon, some people don’t want an appliancemobile even if it means sacrificing some amount of reliability.
For example, I’d personally take a Jaguar or Alfa Romeo (two brands particularly famous for lack of reliability) over most Toyotas short of one of their niche models like their GRs or old school SUVs.
Or, if you actually… like driving. Again, exceptions being made for stuff like their GR cars which are quite excellent for that purpose.
So many people fail to understand some people actually like driving. It has nothing to do with showing off how rich you are, other than that the intersection of expensive cars and drivers’ cars overlaps quite a bit.
I’d disagree on that. While they’re not overly exciting like a little MX-5, my new base model hybrid Corolla has plenty of pickup and go for whatever I need, and coming from a truck, I find it “fun” to drive. And I love driving my Tacoma off-road! I think Toyota are right to make a more appliance-y car, which is still super fun to drive, but doesn’t lose what’s most important, cost and reliability.
Fair point - usually if someone is comparing to a Toyota, they would be interested in reliability, because you don't look at them for performance or excitement ;) They are, as an automotive industry friend described, an automotive appliance.
From what I've seen only the i3 actually simplified this way, but I haven't gone in depth on it since then and that discussion doesn't refer to any specific models.
Not at all. You still need every single component of an ICE vehicle. However, they all need to be electrically driven, rather than belt driven (since the engine isn't always running). That gives more engineering freedom, but it doesn't reduce any parts. In fact, every belt-driven system now needs it's own electric motor, including power.
> You still need every single component of an ICE vehicle.
no you don't. you can skip the transmission and all the variable valve complications that modern ICEs have. Since you have a powerful electric engine, you no longer need the ICE to have good response or a flat torque curve since you can use electric power to fill in the gaps.
No that’s wrong. Toyota’s “Hybrid Synergy Drive” is greatly simplified on the ICE side. No traditional transmission, no alternator, no starter motor, and a not particularly complex Atkinson Cycle engine. Sure it adds one or more electric motors, but the overall complexity is not particularly high.
You're definitely on to something, but I think it's more than that. So many of the decision-makers on this live in big cities where EVs can easily be "refueled". Couple that with the heavy political pressure that has been coming from the biggest governments around the world to fully abandon gas* in an accelerated timetable (accelerated faster than what the market would normally deliver as EV tech becomes cheaper and more efficient than ICE), and it's not a big surprise that all the companies are towing the line.
Toyota seems to be one of the only companies that is willing to testify before congress and point out what everybody living outside of major cities knows: The infrastructure is not there for many, many people to switch to EVs, and no matter how much we try to artificially force the market to do that, it's just not possible yet. This means that for most people, buying an EV means you are dramatically reducing the utility of your vehicle by ditching features such as ability to use your car on road trips without having to plan extensively to ensure there are charging stations where you need them, and that you have the time to sit and wait (and hope that the stations are available and aren't broken). I know quite a few people that have bought Teslas (or other EVs, but mostly Teslas) and all except one has expressed regret and wished they hadn't**, because they no longer have the same "freedom" that they had from their car before, namely the ability to use it whenever and wherever they wanted to go. The saddest case is a friend who loves to go into the mountains. He works from home and his kids have a bus to school, so his car is mainly used to occasionally run errands, and to go to the mountains. He can't use it for the mountains anymore because it's too risky! Running out of "fuel" is much more frequent and consequential. He also has very little towing capacity now.
A lot of people are hearing about reality/experiences like this, and that is having an impact. Toyota not only seems prophetic, but like the only car company that is well positioned to address this. Hybrids are a great solution combining many of the pros of both EV and ICE.
EVs are the future, but we can't just wish them into existence, even though plenty of people with enormous financial and political incentive to do so, will advocate for that approach.
*And not for nothing. Obviously there are very real and concerning existential reasons why we want to abandon fossil fuels, but that doesn't change any of the economic and technological realities in which we must operate.
**They do love them as commuter cars though without a doubt. The dream seems to be to have two cars: an EV for commuting and around-town and an ICE/hybrid for leaving the city
The reason it doesn’t exist any more is that they didn’t prove they could do it profitably, though.
I mean, sure, when they were willing to temporarily burn money to establish themselves in that market, they could do it, but they couldn’t make it profitable, so they retooled the plant to things they could make profit on.
A typical mid range EV (say 250 miles) is about 50 KWH. So to just get 20% you only need 10KWh.
The smallest generators are around 12KG and put out about 1.1KW but they tend to only run a couple of hours due to small tanks. About double that at 22KG you have something with more reasonable run time and puts out 2KW (https://www.amazon.co.uk/Panana-Aokaidun-Portable-Inverter-G...) and within its typical 6 hour runtime is going to get you 20% and in a 24 hour cycle with refills gets you nearly a full EV. This suggests to charge the car fully you would need about 4 x 4 Litres of fuel, that is 16KG of fuel and 22KG of generator your carting around in the back of the car, its basically a persons extra of weight for one refill which would take about day to complete.
20% or 17.6 kWh can be attained in 9 hours at 2000 watts output with a Honda eu2200i generator. This is the largest generator the average person can hold like a briefcase. Larger generators are insanely heavy.
This is one of those monumental strategic decisions that with the benefit of hindsight seems obvious. No charging infrastructure means no EV market (simplifying).
Boeing and Airbus had a similar situation - increasing passenger numbers to Airbus meant “we need to build giant planes like the A380” (now essentially dead). To Boeing it meant “we better build planes that can service smaller airports because they’ll become increasingly important”.
Mind boggling how the wrong interpretation of the market situation leads to decade-defining trajectories for companies.
I never said it was equal. But it’s plenty to make cross country trips 5 years ago and it’s a correction to the ludicrous claim of “no charging infrastructure”
Now let's do any non-tesla charging network - Far and few between, ones that exist usually require stupid applications to even start talking to you, if they are not outright broken.
Tesla started the Supercharger network over a decade ago as a rather small company. A non-tesla charging network is absolutely feasible if automakers would agree on a standard and make a coordinated effort to build one.
Yeah there is a standard, CCS2, does it matter when station are broken, need stupid applications with unique credentials and sometimes does not even want to charge because some incompatibility issue?
I'm not sure where you have been Supercharging but I just finished a 1,000 mile trip in my MX and never had a problem. In fact there was plenty of slots available every time I stopped to charge.
I think this fear of hoards of non-Tesla cars stuffing up the Superchargers is way over hyped. Plus, they are continually building more and more charging locations. Finally, my car is really good at rerouting to a different Supercharger if one is busy or scheduled to be busy. So far, the fears haven't come true.
And 50% who lives in apartments never will, so they will be dependent on public infrastructure, where charging is more expensive than taking gas, thus making no sense to buy BEV.
Two superchargers and a half dozen "destination charging" spots in my entire local city+suburbs metro area seems entirely consistent with what you're replying to.
How are BYD's hybrids (all PHEV now, I believe) more advanced than Toyota's?
I'm also curious as to BYD's build quality and longevity of components. Toyota is a known quantity; their vehicles typically run for years with few needs other than routine maintenance.
I've read & watched lots of very positive reviews of BYD hybrids and full electrics based on a few hours' use, or maybe a few days. These cars do look pretty good and are competitively priced in most markets, but they have to be compared apples-to-apples, over multiple years, to get a sense of what it's like to own one.
I think it's not just only their hybrid strategy, but the reputation they have built as company that builds rock solid reliable cars. I know many people that basically only ever buy Toyota strictly because of that reputation. Heck even when I was looking at an offroad capable SUV, I only considered Toyota models based strictly off their reputation for reliability (ended up with a 4Runner, great car).
It's good to offer consumers choice and all but IMO the real reason Toyota is consistently successful is their decades long reputation for being a reliable brand is paying dividends.
I always consider Hondas first because their interior fit and finish is superior when new, but the sheer size of the online support groups for dealing with complex expensive mechanical failures like electrical system gremlins and transmission failures alerted me to the scale of the problems. BMW might be more reliable than Honda these days
In Honda's defense, they've recognized their quality was slipping, and have been moving to fix these issues. Their transmission issues stemmed from the ZF built 9-speed, which has been a problem for every car manufacturer to use it. They've since replaced that unit with their own designed and manufactured 10-speed transmission.
My girlfriend had a 2018 CR-V for 5 years, 0 issues. She sold it back to the dealer for $1500 less than what she paid for it.
I agree with you on interior quality and fit and finish. Hers was perfect inside and out. Body panel gaps were robot perfect. Decent quality materials on the interior, too.
My new Highlander, in comparison, looks like it was assembled by drunk toddlers and its interior is of Hasbro quality materials.
4Runner is indeed a great car. I have a 2016 and still love it, I plan on handing it down to my oldest son when he turns 16 and gets his license in a couple years. When this happens my plan is to pick up a one year old Landcruiser hybrid. If the new model is as reliable as their predecessors then it may very well be the last vehicle I ever have to buy.
My dad handed me down our 2001 4Runner when I got my license and it was a great first car as a high school and college kid.
Not enough performance to be that tempting to do anything dumb, tons of space for friends and stuff, go anywhere, sleep in it, easy to maintain… Bumpers were rusted to hell but it had a sunroof and you could roll the rear window down so we were having a great time!
I’m on the fence about Hybrids now. Past generation Priuses were over-engineered marvels but it can’t be said today. Toyota’s Hybrid reputation was built on top of the Prius so they had to build a lightweight car that would go past 200k miles and then some to show the world that it’s reliable. I own two Priuses so here are my thoughts:
My 2nd generation model is going strong at 190k miles even after surviving a cat theft and a cell degenerated. I was able to buy a ebay NiMH cell for $33 and replace one out of 28. But for a long time, I was still able to drive the car around with a degraded battery because it essentially is a Yaris Atkinson engine. Newer hybrids however, are using smaller engines and a Lithium Ion pack. A Li-Ion pack would have degraded quicker in the hot sun where I usually park my car and with more energy cycling. I’m not sure how repairable Li-Ion packs are now and Ebaying for them is a bad idea.
The 3rd generation had some refinements done but the car I own has been getting reports that it isn’t as reliable as its predecessor. I don’t have enough miles on mine to give you all a good anecdote.
Would I still buy a Toyota Hybrid today? It depends. On a compact car, yes. For Toyota, it was easier to prove you have the right tech on a small compact like a Corolla or Camry. But for larger cars, the jury is still out there as they now offer a Hybrid option for almost every vehicle in their lineup. If my only option was between a turbo or a hybrid, I would get the latter option any day. But I would stay away from large SUVs and people haulers with small engines—which is harder to do these days because of emissions standards.
The power split device (hybrid synergy drive) has been absolutely reliable. That type of transmission alone is actually worth the Hybrid option and more of the reason why Toyotas can get to 200k miles trouble-free, not merely the engine. When someone says ‘Toyota Hybrid’, it’s really the transmission that deserves the accolades. The transmission is actually is what breaks before engines in most cars. Toyota has this one figured out unlike most other car manufacturers.
Toyota engines don’t die by going out with a bang like other cars. But, it’ll start burning motor oil with fuel and damage your catalytic converter. For most consumers, that’s good enough for reliability. People consider it totally acceptable that a smog technician tells you that your car cannot be driven over a mechanic.
If you want a Toyota Sienna you have no choice but to get the hybrid. More concerning is the extreme complexity of the A25A dynamic force engine included with the hybrid (and now even many non hybrid drive trains). Maybe they found a way to make it reliable.
Could it be the profits come from all the service in the later years? I have owned Toyotas and they are great for a long time and then it’s cha-ching for the dealers, the mechanics, and anyone (cough, Toyota) collecting profits directly or indirectly from parts manufacturing.
Unless you own a house I don't think it makes sense to get an electric. I barely like sitting 5 minutes at the super charger which at least for me was giving like 180kw and then it just drops off a bunch, and now the super chargers are getting more full.
Charging is going to be a big challenge. The cities are moving to medium density which still requires cars but also means street parking and appartement blocks with large parking lots. Higher density areas like downtown condos also don’t make it easy. A few hundred cars and maybe a dozen level 2 chargers.
One reason for that is that they have a hybrid version for pretty much every model they sell, at least in Europe. From superminies to SUVs, all lines have a hybrid version included. Add the fact that their engines are super smooth and they produce the most reliable cars and you can see why it pays dividends while other manufacturers struggle to modernize their fleet.
This is probably good for society. Ideally we'd already be at the stage where all sales were EV, PHEV or hybrid and working towards all EV but sadly many other manufacturers fumbled both the hybrid, PHEV and EV transition.
But given the insane comments coming from their leadership it seems likely that they're going to get sideswiped by Chinese EVs (and PHEVs) flooding the market at some point and simply not see it coming. So good for society in the short term but bad for Toyota (and Japan) in the medium term.
Now we have hybrids that can be charged from a charger you get a short range EV for all the local trips which dominate most peoples car usage and its still got a backup engine to take away the range anxiety. Hybrids in practice are going to drastically reduce emissions so long as their batteries are large enough and chargeable off the grid where often overnight power is quite green depending on where you are in the world.
But in the end the answer is just better charging infrastructure and a bit more power density for less money, it has to be if we want a habitable planet.
And what do you expect from the billions of people in developing countries that aren't going to give a rat's tail about future habitability because they are mostly focused on current survival? Is EV or hybrids and better power and charging infrastructure are the answer there?
I think the only long term solution to a habitable planet is a technical solution that gives us a scalable way to fix the problems emissions cause. I'm not saying to not try and stem the tide where it's possible. But we are not going to stem that tide globally.
I don't have the answer but I hope there are really smart people who see this writing on the wall and are dedicated to finding that long term global solution.
They are cornering the hybrid market in the gap years between ICE and pure BEV. The only problem with this strategy is they will be seriously behind on pure BEV (4th and 5th generation). When Tesla or anyone finally delivers a cheap 1000km EV, it's game over for hybrid sales. Maybe a hybrid diesel truck would still be appropriate then. Maybe not.
Anybody who can build a reliable hybrid should be able to build a solid EV.
1000km of range is not a major selling point for any passenger ICE car. On an EV it is a lot of added weight and expense. Much more important than any range over 500km or so is fast, reliable and ubiquitous charging infrastructure. We don't have that yet, but we are making progress.
im sure their service departments at dealerships love still having a huge gravytrain of ICE maintenance / oil/ transmission / belts / exhaust etc issues continue.
Get back to me in 10 years, when it has 230k miles on it and hasn’t needed a single major repair - like my 2013 Sienna. I’ve got several friends who own independent repair shops, and all agree that if everyone owned a Toyota they would have no business.
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[ 0.25 ms ] story [ 194 ms ] thread* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Prius_(XW10)
At least the new Prius looks cool.
For me though, EVs just aren't actually better yet.
Tesla came close but long term their reliability and vendor lock-in issues mean that they're never going to work like a 10-20 year old Civic, Corolla, Transit etc which ruins the value proposition.
I have no doubt that they'll get there, but they have to be a strict improvement on a 30 year old ICE car first.
Also, why do you need a throwaway to say that you prefer ICE to EV?
And aren't they all throw aways?
I don't prefer ICE to EV. I actually prefer electric vehicles. When Ford release an electric Transit with the range and payload of my diesel one, and when the cost of electricity at a rapid charger is comparable in the UK, I'll switch in a heartbeat. It'll be brilliant.
They are better, but not necessarily much better. A Toyota Prius Prime can get 39 to 44 miles in electric mode [1]. That's good enough for the average person's daily commute or weekend errands, which constitute the vast majority of the miles driven by people. The end result could be a reduction in emissions by 95%. Not 100%, true. But that 100% reduction of an EV is mostly a shifting of emissions to some central power plant, and since electricity is fungible, one can't really say that that particular power plant is solar. In other words, the difference between the overall emissions of an EV vs a good plug-in hybrid (like the Prius Prime) is negligible.
[1] https://www.toyota.com/priusprime/features/mpg_other_price/1...
The Toyota Prius Prime exists today. Switching to renewables is something that is happening today, but we'll be lucky if it will be done in 20 years.
But 20% of us would rather not wait around for recharging on our longer roadtrips / commutes, in which case a hybrid drivetrain just makes sense.
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Related to "snarkiness" : let's agree in no absolutes... nothing is 100%, except death and taxes.
One can’t say that a particular energetic electron was energized by a solar plant, sure. But one can look at new power deployment and see that almost all of it is non-CO2-emitting, a large majority is renewable, and more than half of it is solar. [1]
Over the past decade the US has turned over roughly 1-2% of generation capacity annually, and grown by about 1% annually [2]—but those numbers are accelerating: in 2023 we grew about 6%. [1]
Totally plausible that we’re at the start of an S-curve here; the grid is certainly not getting dirtier, and with an expected life of > 10 years an EV purchased today will be quite a bit cleaner by EOL based on charging power source alone.
[1]: https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/clean-energy/chart-near...
[2]: https://www.publicpower.org/resource/americas-electricity-ge...
I have joked, since 2016, that Tesla will be among the largest donators of intellectual property [to other vehicle manufacturers incorporating their ideas]; but that ultimately hybrid drivetrains like Toyota's are a better solution for most long-distance travelers.
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Dear Tesla:
Thanks for all the R&D.
Infamously yours,
—Prolly
I own a variety of cars, and do still have some ICE cars, but for almost every use case, I prefer my model Y. As to reliability, n=4 narrative, I've owned a Tesla of one sort or the other since 2018 or so, and two Nissan Leafs since 2015 and here's the full list of repairs and dealer visits I've needed: Tesla Model 3 Dual motor charge port won't auto close after open. Nissan Leaf Gen 1 window button needed replacing. That's it. By comparison my Toyota vans have had roughly ten service calls / dealer visits in the same period.
If you read through most reports on Tesla reliability, generally initial build quality is the main complaint. Electric cars are mechanically super simple, and this is a daily benefit for any driver of an EV.
To my mind the 'strict improvement' rule at this point needs to be doing a lot of work when you compare to a 1998 civic. Do you include smell, window seals, oil consumption, power, lane departure warnings, pre-braking in case of emergency, highway passing acceleration, ...?
The relevant data here would be how valuable are Teslas after 20 years and 250k miles? Because when I buy a Toyota, I am pretty confident I will still be able to use it, or sell it for a decent amount.
https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1b0ae5a/tesla_tr...
How many oil changes is that? lol
Personally my Model S had all sorts of issues, I sold it before the warranty period ended as I knew that I didn't want to pay dealer prices for everything and deal with the bottlenecks.
I just can't see a Model S actually being on the road when it's 15-20 years old because no-one is going to want to pay Tesla prices to maintain it.
The relevant comparison is with a ~2020 Civic i.e. when both cars are 20 years old, which one will still be going.
I am in Toronto and car theft is very common here as our Ports have very lax security. Toyotas top the list for stolen vehicles. And Teslas are the least stolen vehicle. I wish Toyotas were harder to steal.
When I learned that 2025+ Camry's are ALL Hybrids, it just made sense...
Typically Honda would compete with Toyota with similar offerings but their hybrids aren't matching up to Toyota yet in MPG and you can't get it in large SUVs.
So now you have a situation where nobody is competing with Toyota because everyone's busy making EVs.
True or not, it's now assumed you can drive a Toyota for 150k miles without breaking a sweat.
Toyota Sienna and Toyota Grand Highlander are three row vehicles rated at 36 MPG. These cars are selling out before they even hit the dealer lot.
There is simply no direct competition to the Toyota Grand Highlander Hybrid, so they charge whatever they want
Why can't the world produce a single EV that looks like the new Bronco, a Wrangler, or even the Defender 90?
I would'nt be surprised if they come out with a 2-door version of such to fill the long vacated slot left by the FJ Cruiser.
The price is pretty much fixed, except for cars which weren't sold after receiving a downpayment for them.
Would really like to hear of a situation where a dealer literally refused a cash or outside financed transaction.
Of the 3 Toyota dealerships I worked with during Covid, not a single one of them charged over MSRP, even for in demand vehicles. I was at the local Toyota dealership a few months ago, and they had a long line of new vehicles parked out front, all with large SOLD signs in the windscreen. Toyota has learned from C19 and not to overstuff their dealerships with products that do not sell and cost dealerships big money in floorplan financing.
It is a similar story at the 2 Honda dealerships I've dealt with in the same time period. MSRP sales, new vehicle lot empty because vehicles are sold before they arrive.
https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/bb/revenue/ notice the years and how they coincide with the iPhone.
Also when I think about this personally, I was 5x or more faster at typing on my old blackberry than I have ever been on modern phones. When thinking luxury v. necessity, things like that I think will matter a lot more than they did for phones.
The price, technology, and infrastructure for supporting EVS is not appropriate for the majority of us.
I'm not going to buy something as complicated as a hybrid from General Motors, most American car companies or some European brand, when they can't even build very reliable combustion vehicles. Imagine what it would cost to repair such a vehicle from those manufacturers.
It's more about Toyota knowing their strengths and successfully delivering a lineup that honors those strengths than some strategy the other manufacturers are missing.
Personally when I consider buying a Prius Prime or a Model 3 for a similar price with a shorter lead time, I'm going to buy the Model 3 every time.
For example, I’d personally take a Jaguar or Alfa Romeo (two brands particularly famous for lack of reliability) over most Toyotas short of one of their niche models like their GRs or old school SUVs.
So many people fail to understand some people actually like driving. It has nothing to do with showing off how rich you are, other than that the intersection of expensive cars and drivers’ cars overlaps quite a bit.
Aren't some hybrids less complicated than internal combustion engine vehicles?
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30044695
From what I've seen only the i3 actually simplified this way, but I haven't gone in depth on it since then and that discussion doesn't refer to any specific models.
no you don't. you can skip the transmission and all the variable valve complications that modern ICEs have. Since you have a powerful electric engine, you no longer need the ICE to have good response or a flat torque curve since you can use electric power to fill in the gaps.
It still has all of this, it's just combined into a single unit. Complexity is still there, packaging is just different.
Fundamentally, an ICE with a direct connection to the tires must have a transmission.
Toyota seems to be one of the only companies that is willing to testify before congress and point out what everybody living outside of major cities knows: The infrastructure is not there for many, many people to switch to EVs, and no matter how much we try to artificially force the market to do that, it's just not possible yet. This means that for most people, buying an EV means you are dramatically reducing the utility of your vehicle by ditching features such as ability to use your car on road trips without having to plan extensively to ensure there are charging stations where you need them, and that you have the time to sit and wait (and hope that the stations are available and aren't broken). I know quite a few people that have bought Teslas (or other EVs, but mostly Teslas) and all except one has expressed regret and wished they hadn't**, because they no longer have the same "freedom" that they had from their car before, namely the ability to use it whenever and wherever they wanted to go. The saddest case is a friend who loves to go into the mountains. He works from home and his kids have a bus to school, so his car is mainly used to occasionally run errands, and to go to the mountains. He can't use it for the mountains anymore because it's too risky! Running out of "fuel" is much more frequent and consequential. He also has very little towing capacity now.
A lot of people are hearing about reality/experiences like this, and that is having an impact. Toyota not only seems prophetic, but like the only car company that is well positioned to address this. Hybrids are a great solution combining many of the pros of both EV and ICE.
EVs are the future, but we can't just wish them into existence, even though plenty of people with enormous financial and political incentive to do so, will advocate for that approach.
*And not for nothing. Obviously there are very real and concerning existential reasons why we want to abandon fossil fuels, but that doesn't change any of the economic and technological realities in which we must operate.
**They do love them as commuter cars though without a doubt. The dream seems to be to have two cars: an EV for commuting and around-town and an ICE/hybrid for leaving the city
I mean, sure, when they were willing to temporarily burn money to establish themselves in that market, they could do it, but they couldn’t make it profitable, so they retooled the plant to things they could make profit on.
It’s easy mode to make something affordable if you are sufficiently willing to lose money on it, but that’s hardly a sustainable business.
The smallest generators are around 12KG and put out about 1.1KW but they tend to only run a couple of hours due to small tanks. About double that at 22KG you have something with more reasonable run time and puts out 2KW (https://www.amazon.co.uk/Panana-Aokaidun-Portable-Inverter-G...) and within its typical 6 hour runtime is going to get you 20% and in a 24 hour cycle with refills gets you nearly a full EV. This suggests to charge the car fully you would need about 4 x 4 Litres of fuel, that is 16KG of fuel and 22KG of generator your carting around in the back of the car, its basically a persons extra of weight for one refill which would take about day to complete.
20% or 17.6 kWh can be attained in 9 hours at 2000 watts output with a Honda eu2200i generator. This is the largest generator the average person can hold like a briefcase. Larger generators are insanely heavy.
It's still more powerful that needed so maybe there's something smaller.
(Note that as of this writing products mentioned sibling comments are not diesel)
Boeing and Airbus had a similar situation - increasing passenger numbers to Airbus meant “we need to build giant planes like the A380” (now essentially dead). To Boeing it meant “we better build planes that can service smaller airports because they’ll become increasingly important”.
Mind boggling how the wrong interpretation of the market situation leads to decade-defining trajectories for companies.
Quite the hyperbole
https://www.tesla.com/findus?v=2&bounds=57.17077853489991%2C...
Audi, BMW, Ford, GM, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Mazda, Mercedes, Nissan, Rivian, should I go on?
I think this fear of hoards of non-Tesla cars stuffing up the Superchargers is way over hyped. Plus, they are continually building more and more charging locations. Finally, my car is really good at rerouting to a different Supercharger if one is busy or scheduled to be busy. So far, the fears haven't come true.
I'm also curious as to BYD's build quality and longevity of components. Toyota is a known quantity; their vehicles typically run for years with few needs other than routine maintenance.
I've read & watched lots of very positive reviews of BYD hybrids and full electrics based on a few hours' use, or maybe a few days. These cars do look pretty good and are competitively priced in most markets, but they have to be compared apples-to-apples, over multiple years, to get a sense of what it's like to own one.
But with entry-level pricing at less than half of Toyota's least-expensive products, BYD is surely better than halfway "more advanced than Toyota's."
Price point is such an important thing when delivering any product, and if a BYD vehicle lasts even half as long as a Toyota, I'd purchase one.
It's good to offer consumers choice and all but IMO the real reason Toyota is consistently successful is their decades long reputation for being a reliable brand is paying dividends.
My girlfriend had a 2018 CR-V for 5 years, 0 issues. She sold it back to the dealer for $1500 less than what she paid for it.
I agree with you on interior quality and fit and finish. Hers was perfect inside and out. Body panel gaps were robot perfect. Decent quality materials on the interior, too.
My new Highlander, in comparison, looks like it was assembled by drunk toddlers and its interior is of Hasbro quality materials.
I feel like Toyota is intentionally doing this to push people up to the Lexus brand.
The reason is price. They keep the price low by skimping on interior plushness while keeping the mechanicals reliable.
Not enough performance to be that tempting to do anything dumb, tons of space for friends and stuff, go anywhere, sleep in it, easy to maintain… Bumpers were rusted to hell but it had a sunroof and you could roll the rear window down so we were having a great time!
My 2nd generation model is going strong at 190k miles even after surviving a cat theft and a cell degenerated. I was able to buy a ebay NiMH cell for $33 and replace one out of 28. But for a long time, I was still able to drive the car around with a degraded battery because it essentially is a Yaris Atkinson engine. Newer hybrids however, are using smaller engines and a Lithium Ion pack. A Li-Ion pack would have degraded quicker in the hot sun where I usually park my car and with more energy cycling. I’m not sure how repairable Li-Ion packs are now and Ebaying for them is a bad idea.
The 3rd generation had some refinements done but the car I own has been getting reports that it isn’t as reliable as its predecessor. I don’t have enough miles on mine to give you all a good anecdote.
Would I still buy a Toyota Hybrid today? It depends. On a compact car, yes. For Toyota, it was easier to prove you have the right tech on a small compact like a Corolla or Camry. But for larger cars, the jury is still out there as they now offer a Hybrid option for almost every vehicle in their lineup. If my only option was between a turbo or a hybrid, I would get the latter option any day. But I would stay away from large SUVs and people haulers with small engines—which is harder to do these days because of emissions standards.
The power split device (hybrid synergy drive) has been absolutely reliable. That type of transmission alone is actually worth the Hybrid option and more of the reason why Toyotas can get to 200k miles trouble-free, not merely the engine. When someone says ‘Toyota Hybrid’, it’s really the transmission that deserves the accolades. The transmission is actually is what breaks before engines in most cars. Toyota has this one figured out unlike most other car manufacturers.
Toyota engines don’t die by going out with a bang like other cars. But, it’ll start burning motor oil with fuel and damage your catalytic converter. For most consumers, that’s good enough for reliability. People consider it totally acceptable that a smog technician tells you that your car cannot be driven over a mechanic.
But given the insane comments coming from their leadership it seems likely that they're going to get sideswiped by Chinese EVs (and PHEVs) flooding the market at some point and simply not see it coming. So good for society in the short term but bad for Toyota (and Japan) in the medium term.
But in the end the answer is just better charging infrastructure and a bit more power density for less money, it has to be if we want a habitable planet.
And what do you expect from the billions of people in developing countries that aren't going to give a rat's tail about future habitability because they are mostly focused on current survival? Is EV or hybrids and better power and charging infrastructure are the answer there?
I think the only long term solution to a habitable planet is a technical solution that gives us a scalable way to fix the problems emissions cause. I'm not saying to not try and stem the tide where it's possible. But we are not going to stem that tide globally.
I don't have the answer but I hope there are really smart people who see this writing on the wall and are dedicated to finding that long term global solution.
As in it goes that far on a single charge? That seems like a lot of batteries, and a lot of charging power if you can't keep it topped off at home.
Is there any particular reason to expect such a thing to be cheaper than something just using a bottle of liquid hydrocarbons for energy?
1000km of range is not a major selling point for any passenger ICE car. On an EV it is a lot of added weight and expense. Much more important than any range over 500km or so is fast, reliable and ubiquitous charging infrastructure. We don't have that yet, but we are making progress.