On the one hand, this was slightly better than analyst predictions.
On the other hand, last quarter Tesla (and its online defenders) insisted the reason for the previous drop was that people were waiting for refreshed models. Now that the refreshes have been available for a full quarter and sales are still declining, we can rule that possibility out.
As someone who dislikes Musk's seemingly oblivious approach to "Move fast and break things" in government when real lives are at stake and expertise is not easy to come by, I really want this drop to be attributable to that. I really, really do.
I own a Tesla (2023 Model Y Long Range 7-seat), and I do enjoy my Model Y; I have some complaints, but overall I'm happy with the safety features of the vehicle. I do not and will not enable the FSD or Auto-steer; but otherwise I am happy with it, and want other car manufacturers to take note of the vertical technological integration possible when they put their minds to it.
However, in pursuit of a better bottom line, Tesla has made some affordance changes to their post 2023 models; and even their camera vision in the 2023 model is a poor substitute for ultra-sonic sensors for parking.
Combine that with their gutting of the Tesla Supercharger team; and the subsequent decline in quality of their supercharger experience, and then combine that with the macro-economic issues that are surrounding EV range and EV experiences in real world conditions; and you have a decline that can be attributed to the non-Musk effects as well.
I don't doubt his political machinations have contributed to Tesla's decline. If I could sell my Tesla, I would; (I am way underwater due to its steep drop in resale value), but I think a substantial percentage of this drop can be attributable to the hype of the EV not living up to the reality of owning an EV.
It's pretty safe to say that after a decade of unfulfilled projections and promises, the Tesla EV fantasy is now a bust.
So now it's off to new fantasy --- robotaxi.
The problem with this fantasy --- ride hailing isn't nearly as profitable as auto manufacturing.
Half the world isn't going to ditch their autos in favor of robo rides any time soon. This is what it will take to justify Tesla's current outlandish stock price.
Uber P/E is about 20. Tesla P/E is around 170. Can Tesla ride hailing be 6 times bigger/more profitable than Uber in the near future? I personally don't think so.
Musk's new Tesla pitch is they are going to sell ten robots for every human. Just multiply some profit times 80bn robots and the stock is way underpriced!
In some ways the Tesla EV fantasy has worked - build a high priced car to finance a medium priced car to finance cheap cars and move the world to sustainable transport. The only difference is the cheap cars are being made by Chinese manufacturers rather than Tesla.
Which is actually in line with their thing on patents:
> Tesla Motors was created to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport. If we clear a path to the creation of compelling electric vehicles, but then lay intellectual property landmines behind us to inhibit others, we are acting in a manner contrary to that goal. Tesla will not initiate patent lawsuits against anyone who, in good faith, wants to use our technology. (2014)
Optimism used to be so high in this forum. People would call you a Luddite for questioning the stock price. I wonder if we could do a search to compare individuals change in sentiment from ~2018.
The Model Y refresh happened this quarter and they basically had no deliveries for a month or something. Probably had an impact.
I'm not sure how this goes in the long term though, likely to worse. For example BYD sold almost twice the number of cars in the same period and they don't seem to be slowing down.
Remember when Elon cornered his employee and flashed his cock at her and begged her for sex and when she refused he offered to buy her a horse because he’s a shameless degenerate?
Is there any downside to buying a used Tesla directly from Tesla? They sort of have a refurbished apple store vibe and give you an extra 1yr warranty on top of the existing warranty.
16 comments
[ 3.6 ms ] story [ 48.0 ms ] threadOn the other hand, last quarter Tesla (and its online defenders) insisted the reason for the previous drop was that people were waiting for refreshed models. Now that the refreshes have been available for a full quarter and sales are still declining, we can rule that possibility out.
Elon is too toxic, and they got distracted with the whole cybertruck nonsense and kicked the model 1/smaller more euro-focused one into the long grass
I own a Tesla (2023 Model Y Long Range 7-seat), and I do enjoy my Model Y; I have some complaints, but overall I'm happy with the safety features of the vehicle. I do not and will not enable the FSD or Auto-steer; but otherwise I am happy with it, and want other car manufacturers to take note of the vertical technological integration possible when they put their minds to it.
However, in pursuit of a better bottom line, Tesla has made some affordance changes to their post 2023 models; and even their camera vision in the 2023 model is a poor substitute for ultra-sonic sensors for parking.
Combine that with their gutting of the Tesla Supercharger team; and the subsequent decline in quality of their supercharger experience, and then combine that with the macro-economic issues that are surrounding EV range and EV experiences in real world conditions; and you have a decline that can be attributed to the non-Musk effects as well.
I don't doubt his political machinations have contributed to Tesla's decline. If I could sell my Tesla, I would; (I am way underwater due to its steep drop in resale value), but I think a substantial percentage of this drop can be attributable to the hype of the EV not living up to the reality of owning an EV.
So now it's off to new fantasy --- robotaxi.
The problem with this fantasy --- ride hailing isn't nearly as profitable as auto manufacturing.
Half the world isn't going to ditch their autos in favor of robo rides any time soon. This is what it will take to justify Tesla's current outlandish stock price.
Uber P/E is about 20. Tesla P/E is around 170. Can Tesla ride hailing be 6 times bigger/more profitable than Uber in the near future? I personally don't think so.
In some ways the Tesla EV fantasy has worked - build a high priced car to finance a medium priced car to finance cheap cars and move the world to sustainable transport. The only difference is the cheap cars are being made by Chinese manufacturers rather than Tesla.
Which is actually in line with their thing on patents:
> Tesla Motors was created to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport. If we clear a path to the creation of compelling electric vehicles, but then lay intellectual property landmines behind us to inhibit others, we are acting in a manner contrary to that goal. Tesla will not initiate patent lawsuits against anyone who, in good faith, wants to use our technology. (2014)
I'm not sure how this goes in the long term though, likely to worse. For example BYD sold almost twice the number of cars in the same period and they don't seem to be slowing down.
Tesla sales drop for fifth month in a row in Europe
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44416780